"There are those who would draw a sharp line between power politics and a principled foreign policy based on values. This polarized view - you are either a realist or devoted to norms and values - may be just fine in academic debate, but it is a disaster for American foreign policy. American values are universal." - Condoleezza Rice
"Whatever it is that the government does, sensible Americans would prefer that the government does it to somebody else. This is the idea behind foreign policy." - P. J. O'Rourke
"I think that America's recovery of a global strategic view is an absolutely essential element of our foreign policy." - Henry Kissinger
1. U.S. envoy arrives in South Korea as Pyongyang ramps up pressure
2. What could North Korea's 'Christmas gift' to the US be?
3. US committee wants India, Japan and South Korea to share military & human intelligence (on par with Five Eyes)
4. DPRK to develop 'another strategic weapon' to counter US threat
5. Why North Korea Might Wait Things Out With U.S.
6. Washington braces as North Korea deadline looms
7. North Korea Opens Ski Resort Amid Major Tourism Push
8. South Korean protesters destroy portraits of U.S. ambassador
9. F-35s vs. North Korea: Who Wins?
10. Iran Demands $6 Billion Oil Payment From South Korea: Chosun
11. How South Korea and America Should Respond to the Next North Korea Crisis
12. DPRK chief of general staff says army ready to carry out any decision by top leader
13. Activities resume on NK naval shipyard, SLBM demonstration should not be ruled out: think tank
1. U.S. envoy arrives in South Korea as Pyongyang ramps up pressure
INCHEON, South Korea (Reuters) - Stephen Biegun, the U.S. special envoy for North Korea, arrived in South Korea on Sunday as Pyongyang stepped up pressure on Washington to make concessions to revive stalled denuclearisation talks ahead of a year-end deadline.
Biegun's arrival came a day after North Korea said it made another "crucial test" at a rocket launch site to develop a strategic weapon to deter U.S. nuclear threats. 7
Analysts said such tests could help North Korea build more reliable intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the United States.
Biegun did not make any comments upon arrival at an airport near Seoul on Sunday afternoon.
Biegun plans to meet with South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Monday, as part of his three-day stay before leaving for Tokyo to consult with his Japanese counterpart. It is unclear whether he will meet with North Korean officials at the inter-Korean border.
Biegun's trip led to speculation he might try to salvage negotiations by reaching out to North Korea, or by publicly sending a message.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump met three times since last year to negotiate an end to Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programmes, but there has been scant progress.
North Korea has vowed to take an unspecified "new path" if the United States fails to address its demands before the end of the year.
Tension has been rising in recent weeks as Pyongyang has conducted a series of weapons tests and stepped up criticism of the United States, stoking fears the two countries could return to a collision course that they had been on before launching diplomacy last year.
2. What could North Korea's 'Christmas gift' to the US be?
Yes a satellite launch is one possible course of action. It it looks like that is what they want us to focus on. It could very well be that but it could be something else or even nothing at all.
Excerpts:
Revere, who is currently a senior nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution, said that the international community shouldn't be surprised if this "'satellite launch' includes a demonstration of their ability to send a major payload into the North Pacific."
"The ominous message conveyed by that to the United States would be that the DPRK does indeed have the ability to strike the US homeland with a nuclear weapon," he said, using an acronym for North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
North Korea did something similar in 2012, when Pyongyang and Washington struck a deal exchanging a moratorium on ballistic missile and nuclear testing and the shutdown of the Yongbyon nuclear facility in return for several hundred tons of food aid.
But there was nothing mentioned about satellite launches. The so-called "Leap Day Deal" collapsed after the North launched a satellite weeks later, because the two sides fundamentally disagreed over whether a satellite launch vehicle counted as a long-range missile.
And that debate likely remains to this day.
What could North Korea's 'Christmas gift' to the US be?
Seoul, South Korea (CNN)We're back in familiar territory. North Korea is again issuing cryptic threats that officials around the world are scrambling to decipher.
Kim and Trump have met three times in the hopes of striking a deal that would see North Korea trade its nuclear weapons and the missiles used to fire them in exchange for sanctions relief and normalized relations.
Whether this is actually achievable remains uncertain. Even the sharpest and most experienced minds studying North Korea say their predictions as to what happens next are educated guesses.
But there does appear to be some consensus forming -- that North Korea is frustrated by what it perceives as a lack of flexibility and creativity from US negotiators. And perhaps more worryingly, whatever it does next will be designed to capture the attention of US President Donald Trump.
Satellite launch
Most experts who spoke to CNN believe North Korea's most likely next step will be an attempt to use a rocket to launch a satellite into orbit.
North Korean
state media reported on Saturday that a "another crucial test" was successfully conducted at the country's Sohae Satellite launching ground, a site that the regime had reportedly
vowed to dismantle in talks with the US. It follows a
similar announcement from the week before that said a "very important test" took place at the same facility.
Pyongyang claims its space program is for peaceful, scientific purposes. Kim often says he wants to build "the prosperous and powerful socialist nation" through a self-reliant economy based on science and technology. Since taking power after
his father's death in 2011, the young leader has successfully placed two satellites into orbit.
But those excuses have hardly mollified the international community. A satellite launch uses the same technology as firing a nuclear-armed ballistic missile. Indeed, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that the most recent test conducted at the satellite launching ground would bolster the country's "reliable strategic nuclear deterrent."
And while it is not yet clear what either of the recent tests entailed, each satellite North Korea puts into orbit could offer vital information to its advanced -- but likely incomplete -- ballistic missile program, experts say.
"They (North Korea) have yet to demonstrate the ability to bring a large payload back into the Earth's atmosphere, a critically important requirement for their military ICBM program," said Evans Revere, a former Korea expert at the State Department.
Revere, who is currently a senior nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution, said that the international community shouldn't be surprised if this "'satellite launch' includes a demonstration of their ability to send a major payload into the North Pacific."
"The ominous message conveyed by that to the United States would be that the DPRK does indeed have the ability to strike the US homeland with a nuclear weapon," he said, using an acronym for North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
North Korea did something similar in 2012, when Pyongyang and Washington struck a deal exchanging a moratorium on ballistic missile and nuclear testing and the shutdown of the Yongbyon nuclear facility in return for several hundred tons of food aid.
But there was nothing mentioned about satellite launches. The so-called "Leap Day Deal" collapsed after the North launched a satellite weeks later, because the two sides fundamentally disagreed over whether a satellite launch vehicle counted as a long-range missile.
And that debate likely remains to this day.
After the summit between President Trump and Kim in Hanoi in February ended abruptly and without a deal, Trump claimed Kim had given him a verbal guarantee "he's not going to do testing of rockets or missiles or anything having to do with nuclear." Trump did not specify satellite launches, so they still occupy something of a gray area.
Adam Mount, a senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, says this discrepancy shows all the more reason why Washington should have pushed for a "clearly quantified a nuclear and missile test freeze that would have provided for the foundation for negotiation."
Mount says whatever Pyongyang chooses as its gift or new path, none of this should come as a surprise to the Trump administration.
"Over the course of this year, (North Korea has) consistently escalated its pressure on the US trying to force them to capitulate on negotiations," he said. "The Trump administration sort of sleep-walked through that entire process and it's only in the last couple of weeks that they've woken up and they face a potential crisis here."
An ICBM or nuclear test
An intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) or a nuclear test would be more provocative than a satellite test and would certainly get Trump's attention.
Back
in 2017, Pyongyang referred to its first test-launch of an ICBM -- the type of missile designed to deliver a nuclear warhead to targets across the planet -- as a "gift" for Washington. The test took place on July 4 -- US Independence Day. Kim would go on to test two more ICBMs that year and conduct the biggest underground nuclear test to date.
"If you look at the history of Kim Jong Un, he becomes most provocative when people stop paying attention to him," said US Rep. Ami Bera, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific and Nonproliferation.
The Kim regime also knows either firing an ICBM or detonating a nuclear weapon would be seen as a major provocation by the US and the world, including its main ally, China.
"If North Korea wants to have sanctions relief, more testing and provocations are not the path forward," Bera said.
Revere said it's possible the US and South Korea could respond to such actions with "military exercises, new US military deployments on and around the Korean peninsula, a major ramping-up of tensions (a la 2017) and the breakdown of the diplomatic process and with it the end of any prospects for sanctions easing."
North Korea hasn't detonated a nuclear weapon or test-fired an ICBM since 2017.
Last year, Pyongyang blew up some of the tunnels at its nuclear test site, Punggye-ri.
But experts were unsure if this was cosmetic and irreversible -- journalists, not experts, were the only ones invited to the detonation ceremony.
"Whatever the North Koreans have in mind, we should remember their capacity for exceeding our expectations of their capabilities and for doing whatever they deem necessary to enhance their nuclear deterrent, regardless of the diplomatic price to be paid," said Revere.
Washington: With an eye on China, and as part of its effort to maintain peace and rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region, a top Congressional committee has sought to bring three democratic countries of the region India, Japan and South Korea at par with its 'Five Eyes' for intelligence sharing.
The 'Five Eyes' is an alliance comprising of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Great Britain and the US. It is an international agreement under which this these five countries cooperates and share signals intelligence, military intelligence, and human intelligence.
Congressman Adam Schiff, who chairs the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, in a report to the House of Representatives on Thursday argued the case for India, Japan and South Korea be brought along with the 'Five Eyes' so as to maintain peace and rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Indo-Pacific is a biogeographic region, comprising the Indian Ocean and the western and central Pacific Ocean, including the South China Sea.
"The committee under the Secretary of Defence for Intelligence, in coordination with ODNI (Office of Director of National Intelligence), will provide a briefing to the congressional intelligence and defence committees within 60 days of enactment of the Act, on the benefits, challenges, and risks of broadening the information-sharing mechanisms between India, Japan, the Republic of Korea (or South Korea), and the 'Five Eyes' allies," Schiff said.
Schiff, who till last week was busy in impeachment proceedings against US President Donald Trump, said this in his statement on intelligence authorisation measures for fiscal year 2018, 2019, 2020 and submitted to the House of Representatives.
In a sub-section titled "Information-Sharing Arrangements with India, Japan, and South Korea" of the voluminous statement, the committee said that international alliances and partnerships are critical to the pursuit and sustainment of the America's national security objectives, built upon foundations of shared values and intent.
The committee recognise the importance of the Department of Defence sharing information with international allies and partners in support of the planning and execution of the National Defence Strategy, as allies and third-party international partners enhance strategic stability across the Pentagons' purview while increasing effectiveness of operations.
Schiff said that the House Intelligence Committee believe the mechanisms to share information across the 'Five Eyes' alliance continue to mature through established exercises, exchange of personnel, and virtual data sharing, while that cooperation is potentially less robust with third-party partners.
"The committee support the roles and contributions of third-party partners such as India, Japan, and South Korea, and recognises their ongoing contribution toward maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region," the report said.
India, the US and several other world powers have been talking about the need to ensure a free, open and thriving Indo-Pacific in the backdrop of China's rising military maneuvering in the region.
China has been trying to expand its military presence in the Indo-Pacific, which is a biogeographic region, comprising the Indian Ocean and the western and central Pacific Ocean, including the South China Sea.
China claims almost all of the South China Sea. Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan have counter claims over the sea.
"The committee are interested in understanding the policies and procedures governing the collaboration and information sharing with India, Japan, South Korea, and the 'Five Eyes' allies, and whether opportunities exist to strengthen those arrangements," the report said.
The committee said that it has significant concerns that China poses a growing threat to US' national security, due in part to its relentless efforts to acquire US technology.
China purposely blurs the distinction between its military and civilian activities through its policy of "military-civilian fusion," which compounds the risks of diversion of United States technology to the Chinese military.
Concluding that the US currently lacks a comprehensive policy and the tools needed to address this problem, the committee said that China exploits weaknesses in existing US mechanisms aimed at preventing dangerous technology transfers, including the export control system.
4. DPRK to develop 'another strategic weapon' to counter US threat
From the Chinese Global Times.
How many "strategic weapons" does the regime have? Hwasong 14 and 15? An SLBM under development? Its "all purpose sword" of cyber operations? What else? What else will it develop?
DPRK to develop 'another strategic weapon' to counter US threat - Global Times
The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) will use the new technologies it recently tested to develop "another strategic weapon" to counter Washington's nuclear threat, Pak Jong Chon, chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army, said on Saturday.
Pak's remarks came after the DPRK's "crucial" test at the Dongchang-ri site on Friday and its "very important" test at the same place a week ago.
"The priceless data, experience and new technologies gained in the recent tests of defense science research will be fully applied to the development of another strategic weapon of the DPRK for definitely and reliably restraining and overpowering the nuclear threat of the U.S.," Pak said in a statement carried by Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
He also said the DPRK's army was fully ready to thoroughly carry out any decision of the country's top leader Kim Jong Un.
The DPRK has set a year-end deadline for the United States to come up with a new proposal on denuclearization talks, threatening to give up on negotiations with the U.S. and take a "new way" if otherwise.
"We should be ready to cope with political and military provocations of the hostile forces and be familiar with both dialogue and confrontation," Pak said.
Tensions escalate again
The latest round of talks between Pyongyang and Washington took place in Sweden in early October. After negotiations broke down, the DPRK said it had "no desire" to continue nuclear talks unless the United States takes steps to end hostilities.
The DPRK fired a series of projectiles in the following weeks before the two tests this month.
U.S. President Donald Trump warned last week that the DPRK leader risks losing "everything" if he resumes hostility, urging Pyongyang to denuclearize.
"Kim Jong Un is too smart and has far too much to lose, everything actually, if he acts in a hostile way. He signed a strong Denuclearization Agreement with me in Singapore," Trump said on Twitter, referring to his first summit with Kim in Singapore in 2018.
Trump and Kim has met three times since June 2018, including formal summit in Singapore and Vietnam's Hanoi and a brief handshake at Panmunjom, a border village separating the DPRK and the Republic of Korea (ROK).
Stephen Biegun, U.S. special representative for DPRK affairs, will make a three-day visit to the ROK as tensions escalate on the
Korean Peninsula.
China calls for adjusting DPRK sanctions as U.S. indicates flexibility
On Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying called on Pyongyang and Washington to "work together to meet each other halfway" in order to break the deadlock. She also suggested modifying sanctions on the DPRK to facilitate talks.
"It is our consistent position that the (UN) Security Council should, in light of the involvement of the situation on the Peninsula, begin discussing invoking relevant resolution provisions to modify sanctions according to the principle of synchronized and reciprocal steps," she said. "To break this impasse, the DPRK and the US must work together to meet each other halfway."
5. Why North Korea Might Wait Things Out With U.S.
Time is on our side. We can deter, contain, manage and sustain maximum pressure for the duration. Kim is the one who may not have the time given what may be occurring inside Pyongyang. I disagree with Robert Carlin. While he may have never seen the regime panic I do not think we discount the very real possibility that Kim is under tremendous internal pressure for failing to make a deal and gets relief from sanctions. I also think if Kim believes he can exploit the US presidential election he will be sadly mistaken.
Excerpts:
In an effort to keep pressure on the U.S., North Korea has warned of making a perilous shift to its approach next year, when Mr. Trump will be facing re-election. On Friday, Pyongyang conducted a second significant test in a week at a satellite-launch facility, behavior that military experts believe could portend a long-range weapon launch.
One senior official warned in state media recently that the Trump administration's next move will determine "what Christmas gift it will select." The country's U.N. ambassador said denuclearization was off the negotiating table earlier this month.
"I don't think North Korea is under any pressure. They're not in a rush for a deal," said Robert Carlin, a former U.S. intelligence analyst who has been involved in prior negotiations with North Korea. "I've never seen these guys panic."
Pyongyang hasn't tested long-range or nuclear missiles in more than two years, a development that the Trump administration says is proof its diplomatic approach is working.
Kim Jong Un and President Trump met at the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas in June.Photo: kevin lamarque/Reuters
By
Timothy W. Martin
SEOUL-At February's nuclear summit in Vietnam, President Trump was applauded by Washington for
walking away from the table instead of taking a bad deal. But now, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un might be the one prepared to wait.
Pyongyang has
kept its economy afloat by sidestepping sanctions, using its local resources more efficiently and finding alternative ways to generate foreign cash.
In an effort to keep pressure on the U.S., North Korea has warned of making a perilous shift to its approach next year, when Mr. Trump will be facing re-election. On Friday, Pyongyang conducted
a second significant test in a week at a satellite-launch facility, behavior that military experts believe could portend a long-range weapon launch.
One senior official warned in state media recently that the Trump administration's next move will determine "what Christmas gift it will select." The country's U.N. ambassador said denuclearization was off the negotiating table earlier this month.
"I don't think North Korea is under any pressure. They're not in a rush for a deal," said Robert Carlin, a former U.S. intelligence analyst who has been involved in prior negotiations with North Korea. "I've never seen these guys panic."
Pyongyang hasn't tested long-range or nuclear missiles in more than two years, a development that the Trump administration says is proof its diplomatic approach is working.
The North has given the U.S. until the end of the year to bring a more appealing offer. In an April policy speech, Mr. Kim warned that the U.S. would face the prospect of a "gloomy and very dangerous" outcome if the Trump administration didn't change its negotiating stance.
The North has upped its brinkmanship this month. The Friday test was Pyongyang's second in a week at its Sohae facility, a site where it has previously launched satellites into orbit. The
test on Dec. 7 was likely of a rocket engine that could be used for a long-range weapon, military experts said.
After the North's test last weekend became public, Mr. Trump tweeted that Mr. Kim could lose everything by choosing hostility. It prompted a Wednesday retort by a senior Pyongyang official: "We have nothing more to lose," the official was quoted as saying in state media.
Denuclearization talks haven't made discernible progress after February's summit between Messrs. Trump and Kim ended without a deal. The two leaders met again in June
at Korea's demilitarized zone, promising to revive negotiations. But since then, the U.S. and North Korea have convened just once in October, when Pyongyang broke off talks and said it wouldn't continue them unless Washington makes a significant concession.
Pyongyang, which has unleashed more than a dozen weapons tests this year, has subsequently accused Washington of stalling. The U.S. has said it is prepared to be flexible in disarmament talks if the North avoids provocations and takes concrete steps toward a deal.
With just weeks before the year-end deadline, Stephen Biegun, the U.S. special representative for North Korea and Mr. Trump's nominee
as the No. 2 State Department official, arrives in Seoul for a multiday visit starting Sunday. He is scheduled to meet with Seoul officials to discuss North Korea.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has promised his country an economic turnaround that can't occur while sanctions remain in place.Photo: athit perawongmetha/Reuters
Pyongyang, seeking leverage in talks, often makes exaggerated threats against Washington and sets arbitrary deadlines. But the North's dialed-up rhetoric of late may have less to do with desperation than trying to put the blame for inaction on the U.S., security experts said.
"We are done with negotiations for the time being," said Joshua Pollack, a senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Washington. "The North Koreans have been on a public diplomacy play to prepare, especially the Chinese and Russians, for what's coming next."
North Korea said it would hold a plenary session later this month of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, its national ruling party. Some close Pyongyang watchers believe Mr. Kim could use that meeting-or his annual Jan. 1 speech-to articulate what his country's new path might entail.
Pyongyang is applying pressure before the year-end deadline in hopes Mr. Trump will lower the asking price for sanctions relief, security experts said.
"Kim's likely thinking he'll continue to tighten the vise to see if Washington will eventually crack on its own," said Soo Kim, a North Korean expert at Rand Corp., the policy think tank, and a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst.
But the North Korean leader doesn't have an infinite amount of time, either. Mr. Kim has promised his country an economic turnaround that can't occur while sanctions remain in place.
Pyongyang appears to be betting that Mr. Trump would like to avoid a North Korean confrontation while campaigning for a second term in the White House, said Kim Sung-han, a former South Korean vice minister of foreign affairs and now a graduate-school dean at Korea University.
"Kim keeps sending a message that he is ready to mess up with Trump's path to re-election by resuming long-range missile and nuclear tests after the deadline," Prof. Kim said.
6. Washington braces as North Korea deadline looms
We all need to take a step back and not allow ourselves to be played by Kim Jong-un. We are whipping up the fervor that Kim wants to exploit. He thinks we will make a bad deal to prevent provocations and increased tensions. We should make him learn he is wrong and that we are not going to fall victim to his political warfare in support of his long con.
Excerpts:
"The president won't engage in real diplomacy," Sen.
Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said. "He thinks he can get a deal between himself and Kim, which he can't. He needs help. He sold out the South Koreans multiple times. He can only talk to China about trade. He doesn't have the ability to walk and chew gum with China at the same time."
Murphy added that while "nobody should be in the business of trying to predict what North Korea is going to do," he is worried Pyongyang sees weakness and will "calculate that they can get away with some significant new testing."
Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member
Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) similarly expressed concern about actions an "emboldened" Kim could take.
"The president has engaged in high-profile and risky diplomacy, given Kim Jong Un - who was an international pariah - now recognition, stopped our exercises with our allies and weakened the sanctions regime as a result of his actions, and gotten nothing in return," Menendez said.
"If anything, I think Kim Jong Un feels more emboldened," he added. "So I am worried about how emboldened he'll be."
Some Republicans, though, are brushing off North Korea's warnings as typical of the notoriously bellicose country.
"We're always concerned about North Korea, but I don't believe this is an atypical performance on their part," Sen.
Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) said.
On Friday, Defense Secretary
Mark Esper predicted the United States would soon be "tested" on whether it can bring North Korea back to the negotiating table.
Lawmakers are bracing for a North Korean provocation as its year-end deadline for the United States to change its policies draws near.
Rhetoric is already heating back up, with North Korea reviving its "dotard" insult of
President Trump and saying "foolish" U.S. actions have already helped it make a "definite decision" on its next steps.
Senators were loath to predict what exactly the unpredictable country might do after its deadline passes. But as analysts forecast a return to intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and nuclear tests, lawmakers warned of rocky times ahead.
"If North Korea goes back to nuclear testing or they go back to ICBM testing, that will destroy their last best chance to have a win-win agreement with President Trump and that will put us on a collision course because we're not going to allow them to develop the military capability to strike America with a nuclear weapon," Sen.
Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said. "So if they go down that road, it will burn the bridges available to them."
U.S. talks with North Korea on denuclearization have floundered since Trump walked away from his February summit with North Korean leader
Kim Jong Un after they hit an impasse on how much sanctions relief the United States should offer and how much of its weapons program Pyongyang was willing to shut down.
Hopes for revived negotiations were piqued when Trump met with Kim at the Korean peninsula's demilitarized zone in June and agreed to resume working-level talks. But those working-level talks didn't happen until October, and they quickly broke down again.
Meanwhile, North Korea resumed testing short-range missiles, conducting more than a dozen launches this year.
Pyongyang also started warning that if the United States does not soften its negotiating stance by the end of the year, it would start taking a "new path." North Korean officials have not specified what that path is, but regional experts expect it includes tests of ICMBs and nuclear warheads, breaking a self-imposed moratorium on such tests.
Earlier this month, North Korea warned the United States about the possibility of an unwelcome "Christmas gift." Pyongyang also announced a rare planning meeting of top officials from the ruling party happening in late December, where experts have said Kim could make a major announcement like the end of talks with the United States.
Asked about potential North Korean provocations in the new year, Sen.
Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said he "can't predict" what they will do, but that he's "always concerned about North Korea."
"I don't think they can be trusted at all," Romney said. "I think history has proven that what they say and what they do are in different universes, and I hope that we maintain very strict sanctions on North Korea and recognize them for what they are."
At a United Nations Security Council meeting on North Korea this past week, U.S. Ambassador Kelly Craft warned the rogue state against launching a satellite using ICBM technology or ICBMs themselves that are "designed to attack the continental United States with nuclear weapons."
"Missile and nuclear testing will not bring the DPRK greater security," Craft said, using the acronym for North Korea's official name. "It will not bring the DPRK or the region greater stability. It will not help the DPRK achieve the economic opportunities it seeks. In fact, it will do the opposite, complicating our ability to negotiate an agreement that would positively address the DPRK's security and economic goals, and improve regional stability."
North Korea responded by calling the U.S. decision to convene the Security Council meeting a "hostile provocation."
"By holding the meeting, the U.S. did a foolish thing which will boomerang on it, and decisively helped us make a definite decision on what way to choose," a Foreign Ministry spokesman said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.
Trump himself has been more dismissive of North Korea's deadline, suggesting Kim doesn't want to hurt his re-election chances.
"I'd be surprised if North Korea acted hostilely," Trump said this month. "I have a very good relationship with Kim Jong Un. I think we both want to keep it that way. He knows I have an election coming up. I don't think he wants to interfere with that. But we'll have to see."
Still, Trump added that "there's no question" there is "certain hostility." Trump has also revived his Rocket Man nickname for Kim that he used during the height of tensions in 2017.
"He definitely likes sending rockets up, doesn't he? That's why I call him Rocket Man," Trump said while in London for a NATO summit.
North Korea responded to Trump's renewed nicknamed by bringing back its own 2017 insult: dotard.
"If any language and expressions stoking the atmosphere of confrontation are used once again on purpose at a crucial moment as now, that must really be diagnosed as the relapse of the dotage of a dotard," Choe Son Hui, first vice-minister of Foreign Affairs, said in a statement carried by KCNA.
With the war of words already heating back up weeks before the end of the year, Trump's critics are blaming him for what they describe as shoddy diplomacy.
"The president won't engage in real diplomacy," Sen.
Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said. "He thinks he can get a deal between himself and Kim, which he can't. He needs help. He sold out the South Koreans multiple times. He can only talk to China about trade. He doesn't have the ability to walk and chew gum with China at the same time."
Murphy added that while "nobody should be in the business of trying to predict what North Korea is going to do," he is worried Pyongyang sees weakness and will "calculate that they can get away with some significant new testing."
Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member
Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) similarly expressed concern about actions an "emboldened" Kim could take.
"The president has engaged in high-profile and risky diplomacy, given Kim Jong Un - who was an international pariah - now recognition, stopped our exercises with our allies and weakened the sanctions regime as a result of his actions, and gotten nothing in return," Menendez said.
"If anything, I think Kim Jong Un feels more emboldened," he added. "So I am worried about how emboldened he'll be."
Some Republicans, though, are brushing off North Korea's warnings as typical of the notoriously bellicose country.
"We're always concerned about North Korea, but I don't believe this is an atypical performance on their part," Sen.
Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) said.
On Friday, Defense Secretary
Mark Esper predicted the United States would soon be "tested" on whether it can bring North Korea back to the negotiating table.
"The only way forward is through a diplomatic, political agreement," Esper said in an address at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
"War on the peninsula would be horrible. Nobody wants to see that."
7. North Korea Opens Ski Resort Amid Major Tourism Push
I wonder if our Special Representative and his team brought their skis? Maybe following a meeting in Panmujom they can go skiing with their north Korean counterparts (none of whom probably know how to ski). Apologies for the attempt at humor.
North Korea Opens Ski Resort Amid Major Tourism Push
skift.com · by Kim Tong-Hyung, Associated Press - Dec 15, 2019 9:00 am · December 15, 2019
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un opened a new mountain spa and ski resort that's intended for people to enjoy "
high civilization under socialism" in another example of the country using tourism exemptions in sanctions to build revenue for its broken economy.
Kim cut the ribbon during the ceremonial opening of the
Yangdok Hot Spring Cultural Recreation Center and praised his soldiers for creating a "miracle and perfect edifice" that serves the ruling party's efforts to guide people to modern civilization, a state media report said.
North Korea's state TV showed aerial footage of the resort, including its red-roofed hotels, hot spring spas, ski slope, and horse-riding park.
The broadcast showed thousands of soldiers and flag-waving civilians and children welcoming Kim at the site, which he visited at least four times this year, according to state media. He smiled as he toured the facilities, which included a solo chairlift ride above the ski slope.
"(Kim) hardly repressed his happiness, saying that it has become possible to provide people with new culture, and one more plan of the Party to make our people enjoy high civilization under socialism as early as possible has come true," Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency said.
The Yangdok resort, which the North began building last year, has been one of Kim's major development projects along with another mountain resort recently completed in the northern town of Samjiyon and a summer resort being built in the coastal town of Wonsan.
North Korea also last week announced the creation of a company dedicated to creating medical tourism services to foreign visitors at the country's hot spring spas and state-run hospitals, where they will be able to receive cataract surgeries, dental implants and breast tumor treatments.
North Korea has also demanded South Korea tear down its hotels and other facilities at the North's Diamond Mountain resort after Kim declared that the country would redevelop the site on its own. The announcement came after months of frustration over the South's unwillingness to defy U.S.-led sanctions and restart South Korean tours to the resort, which were suspended in 2008 after a North Korean guard fatally shot a South Korean tourist.
Tourism is excluded from the heavy sanctions the U.N. Security Council has imposed on the North over its nuclear weapons program, which includes a full ban on key exports like coal, textile, and seafood and strict limitations on oil imports. The sanctions also require all U.N. members to repatriate all North Korean laborers based in their countries by December.
This article was written by Kim Tong-Hyung from The Associated Press and was legally licensed through the NewsCred publisher network. Please direct all licensing questions to [email protected].
8. South Korean protesters destroy portraits of U.S. ambassador
Again, I am not seeing any reports on the size of the demonstrations.
But you do have to appreciate this question:
"How is it possible for a tenant to ask for five-fold increase in rent from its landlord?" Kwon Oh-min, a Youth Party representative, said outside the U.S. embassy on Friday.
South Korean protesters destroy portraits of U.S. ambassador
SEOUL - Protesters angry over American demands that South Korea pay more for defense destroyed portraits of the U.S. ambassador stuck on blocks of tofu outside the American embassy Friday, after police warned them against staging a more aggressive demonstration.
U.S. Ambassador Harry Harris has become a political lightning rod for South Koreans angered by President Donald Trump's push to get South Korea to pay billions of dollars more toward
maintaining the 28,500 American troops stationed there.
"Harris out! We are not a U.S. colony! We are not an ATM machine!" the demonstrators chanted outside the embassy, surrounded by phalanxes of police.
The left-leaning protesters from several youth groups cheered as two students smashed up blocks of tofu and acorn jelly adorned with paper portraits of Harris.
Longtime allies, the United States and South Korea are in dispute over how much each should pay for the U.S. troops in South Korea. Trump has demanded Seoul pay as much as $4 billion more a year, according to South Korean officials, and a new round of talks is scheduled in Seoul next week.
South Korea currently contributes about $900 million to the upkeep of U.S. troops in the country.
"How is it possible for a tenant to ask for five-fold increase in rent from its landlord?" Kwon Oh-min, a Youth Party representative, said outside the U.S. embassy on Friday.
South Korea has the third-largest presence of U.S. troops based overseas after Japan and German. Major bases include the U.S. Army Garrison Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, south of Seoul, which covers 14.7 million square meters.
In October, dozens of progressive university students climbed into the grounds of the ambassador's residence in protest against the U.S. presence in the country, sparking calls from the embassy for more police protection.
Another gathering of progressive groups is planned for Saturday outside the U.S. embassy to urge Washington to withdraw its request for defence cost-sharing increases ahead of the next round of the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) talks next week.
Seoul police told Reuters they had warned Friday's protesters not to bring hazardous materials or propaganda that could be construed as defamatory or insulting and that they planned to "restrict the protests if they cross the line".
The groups had initially planned to behead an effigy of Harris but scaled back their demonstration to smashing up the blocks of traditional Korean food after the police warning.
Across the street from the U.S. embassy, a rival gathering of conservative, pro-Washington protesters hit people wearing the masks of North Korean leader
Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in with toy hammers.
9. F-35s vs. North Korea: Who Wins?
I think we could still be flying F-4, F-14, A-6s, and F-111s and we would still defeat north Korea. But the F-35 is something that scares Kim Jong-un. We should always remember that one of the major propaganda themes from the Propaganda and Agitation Department is who the US devastated the north during the Korean War. They use that to build hatred among the Korean people living in the north. But Kim is afraid because the F-35 can penetrate the integrated air defenses of the north and strike "leadership targets" as well as nuclear and missile targets. We should build on that message to make Kim afraid, very afraid.
Key Point: South Korea and America both use the F-35. It could be decisive in a second Korean War.
The ROKAF, South Korea's Air Force received their first F-35A fighter jets
in April 2019. The ROKAF hopes to eventually buy forty F-35As and should have ten F-35As by the end of the year.
But how do these aircraft fit into the ROKAF's existing fleet of aircraft? What role could they play in countering the North Korean KPAF?
The ROKAF already fields a variety of advanced American fighters, including over one hundred KF-16Cs and around 60 F-15K Slam Eagles. The KF-16C is fully integrated with the American AMRAAM air-to-air missile, which the ROKAF fields in the AIM-120C-5 and AIM-120C-7 variants.
The combination of the KF-16C and AMRAAM vastly outclasses the majority of fighters the KPAF can field. The bulk of the KPAF fighter fleet is built out of MiG-21 variants and the J-7 fighter, which can only mount short-range infrared air-to-air missiles. KF-16Cs could just fire AMRAAMs, turn around and bug out before the KPAF MiGs lock on, though individual conditions could dictate engagement at shorter ranges.
While the KPAF do have more advanced MiG-23 and MiG-29 fighters (which variants and specific numbers vary from source to source), the quality of the radars and missiles on these fighters still falls far short of the KF-16C and AMRAAM combination.
The F-15K Slam Eagle, while an excellent air-to-air fighter in its own right is more focused on air-to-ground operations, being built on the base of the USAF's F-15E Strike Eagle. The F-15K has been seen with the
Sniper targeting pod, which allows it to self-designate targets for laser-guided bombs and more efficiently detect and engage both tactical and strategic ground targets.
So if the ROKAF already has air-to-air and air-to-ground covered, where does the F-35A fit in the picture?
The answer probably lies in the F-35's sensors. The F-35 has powerful electro-optical sensors that can be used to target aircraft. In Red Flag 2019, the F-35's optical sensors played a large role in its success in a heavy electronic warfare (EW) environment, where fourth-generation fighters like the F-16C were "blind." North Korean MiG-29s also have forward-facing electro-optical sensors of their own, although these are systems from the 1980s that don't have the sensitivity or resolution of modern Russian and American sensors.
A potential engagement with North Korea would likely involve heavy EW and jamming. In the border skirmish in early 2019, India and Pakistan both claimed to have used EW to their advantage in aerial combat.
India claims to have totally jammed the radars of Pakistan Air Force aircraft during the February 26 raid, and
a controversial article suggests that the loss of an Indian MiG was caused due to Pakistan jamming of radio links to the command.
The F-35A's advanced communications and sensors would prevent similar incidents from happening. The ROKAF might opt to fly the F-35A in formations with fourth-generation aircraft to provide better situational awareness and communications capability, enhancing the ability of the entire formation to fly and fight. Usage in such a role would mitigate one of the biggest criticisms of the F-35, the limited onboard weapon capacity.
Charlie Gao studied Political and Computer Science at Grinnell College and is a frequent commentator on defense and national security issues.
Iran's Foreign Ministry called in the South Korean ambassador last month to demand payment of 7 trillion won (
$6 billion) for oil it sold to the Asian country, Chosun Ilbo reported, citing officials it didn't identify.
Iran expressed "strong regret" over Seoul's failure to complete the payment, which has been deposited at two South Korean banks without being transferred to Iran's central bank for years due to U.S. sanctions against the Middle Eastern country, the newspaper said. It added that other Iranian authorities including the central bank also complained.
South Korea sent a delegation to the Middle East late last month and explained that the country will cooperate with the U.S. to successfully complete transfer of the payment, it added.
11. How South Korea and America Should Respond to the Next North Korea Crisis
One thing I would do is beef up our March ROK/US readiness exercise and rename it Team Spirit. That would send a strong message to the Kim family regime.
How South Korea and America Should Respond to the Next North Korea Crisis
The chances for any nuclear or peace deal with North Korea are
rapidly dwindling. Kim Jong-un's
end-of-year deadline for a 2019 agreement will likely come and go without any significant progress. Pyongyang has repeatedly announced that its deadline is approaching, insisting that it is up to the United States to break the impasse. However, the question is whether or not North Korea's rhetoric really means that 2020 will see a return to the norm of inter-Korean tensions accompanied by mutual threats from Pyongyang and Washington.
In a November 14
statement, a DPRK State Affairs Commission spokesman warned that "The US is advised to meditate on what influence the 'new path' we could be compelled to take will have on the 'future of the US'." Such statements are largely interpreted to mean that without a deal, Pyongyang will become more hostile. This could include either full-fledged tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of hitting America or another nuclear test-if not both. These tensions will directly impact South Korea's security and will sink President Moon Jae-in's attempts at building a peace regime on the Korean peninsula.
The entire situation with North Korea is full of bad options. Nuclear weapons are Kim's insurance against regime change and also a tool to blackmail Seoul and Washington. Pyongyang has little incentive to get rid of its weapons of mass destruction, and has a pattern of saber-rattling followed by some concessions in order to get sanctions relief or international aid. Kim does not want to end up overthrown and dead like Iraq's Saddam Hussein or Libya's Muammar al-Gaddafi.
On the one hand, this reality means that Washington's insistence on denuclearization first in exchange for the reward of eventual normalization and sanctions relief are a non-starter for Pyongyang. Full upfront denuclearization remains an impossible goal that only makes coordination between Washington and Seoul harder while also ensuring failure. This failure will likely give Kim a reason to lash out in 2020 over a lack of normalization and sanctions relief.
On the other hand, a return to the "maximum pressure" campaign of economic and military containment won't change much either. Decades of pressure did not stop North Korea from building and keeping the bomb and it won't change Kim's mind now. Moreover, sanctions enforcement has broken down with China committing numerous violations. Beijing
does not want to see Pyongyang collapse, and the ongoing trade tensions with the United States do not give China any reason to act any differently. The Trump administration had a choice-prioritize pressure and diplomacy to achieve a breakthrough on North Korea's nuclear program or use tariffs to try and address long-standing economic and security grievances with China. The White House initially chose Pyongyang but has increasingly focused on Beijing. This means maximum pressure won't be as effective if Kim acts out in 2020.
In the meantime, America and South Korea are right to maintain their alliance and deterrence. They are also correct to work together on keeping communications open with Kim in the event of a crisis. While Americans are under North Korea's missile threat, South Koreans have the most clear-cut interest in maintaining deterrence while also avoiding war because any conflict would harm them the most. This is why Seoul has ramped up defense spending over the last five years while also trying to push President Donald Trump into another summit with Kim before the New Year.
The Ministry of National Defense posted a
$42.5 billion budget for 2019-an increase of 8.2 percent over 2018. This level of spending is good for Seoul's security and also demonstrates that South Korea cares about its defense spending. Meanwhile, summitry also helps to reduce tensions, although at this stage another summit is
only worth it if a genuine breakthrough was already agreed to beforehand in working-level talks. For instance, a "smaller deal" involving all of North Korea's
Yongbyon nuclear facilities in exchange for lifting the most recent United Nations sanctions is one option. Another possibility is for each side to find a way to formalize and regularize their communications such as by opening liaison offices.
But the problem is that there is not enough time and there is plenty of bad faith to go around. It is unlikely that even a "smaller deal" is doable. Indeed, these deals cannot really be described as "small" at all-they are only "small" in comparison to the already incredibly implausible insistence by Washington on a grand bargain of full and immediate denuclearization. Besides, Trump is already distracted by impeachment proceedings and has the November 2020 presidential elections coming up.
In a similar vein, without America's cooperation and enough time, President Moon Jae-in's plans for a peace regime cannot be achieved in full. Moon's priorities are the opposite of the Trump administration's, as Seoul would like to build a peace regime first as a pathway to eventual denuclearization. The Blue House sees building trust and lowering Pyongyang's sense of insecurity as necessary prerequisites to ending the nuclear threat. But Moon has his own upcoming April 2020 elections to worry about and will have to contend with how Kim acts in 2020. Therefore, at least in the near-term, a complete peace regime with an end-of-war declaration, inter-Korean development projects, and a further reduction in military assets and activity along the demilitarized zone cannot be achieved in full.
So where does it leave both Koreas and the United States? What happens if Kim does test ICBMs or nuclear weapons in 2020? What if Pyongyang decides to start early and interrupt America's Christmas holiday or wait until Tokyo's 2020 Summer Olympics?
Washington and Seoul may well be forced to return to some semblance of maximum pressure in order to dissuade Kim from conducting further tests. The degree to which both allies agree on such a campaign will be another source of tension that Pyongyang will attempt to exploit. But a return of tensions need not be disastrous if each of the three countries refrains from an escalating spiral of rhetoric and threats. A certain amount of harsh statements and military exercises are routine and expected on the Korean Peninsula, but the catch is to deter without coming across as intending to start a war. It is certainly imaginable that Trump could threaten a "bloody nose" attack, but also that he could dismiss a North Korean ICBM test as a mere "satellite launch." This latter option would let him avoid confrontation and still claim a diplomatic win for the 2020 elections.
At the end of the day, Seoul and Washington need to deter while keeping the door open to diplomacy. This is the same as it as always been and both allies need to work with each other and other regional partners.
This means that the United States should quickly and reasonably conclude its Special Measures Agreement with South Korea on how much money Seoul provides to support U.S. forces stationed on the peninsula. Although it is true that South Korea is a very prosperous ally and could afford to shoulder more of the cost, South Korea already does more than most of America's allies. Seoul paid about
$9 billion for America's Fort Humphreys and Washington should drastically bring down its absurd demand of $4.7 billion in troop support for 2020.
Finally, South Korea must also focus on resolving its issues with Japan. Seoul's concerns are real and should never be taken lightly. At the same time, South Korea was right to stay in the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) with Japan. This military-information sharing pact is vital to ensuring America's allies can communicate quickly and accurately during a crisis or North Korean weapons test. Seoul and Tokyo
must share North Korean-related intelligence regularly again and work with Washington to ensure stability and security for all three powers going into 2020.
South Korea is an important American ally and a country that faces a real threat right on its border. Washington and Seoul need to continue to deter Pyongyang into 2020 while knowing that while tensions may rise, they don't have to get out-of-hand.
John Dale Grover is a Korean Studies Fellow at the Center for the National Interest and an Assistant Managing Editor at The National Interest
. Note that is article was first published in Korean by the Korea Institute for Military Affairs
in their monthly journal.
Image: Reuters.
12. DPRK chief of general staff says army ready to carry out any decision by top leader
This is why our information and influence campaign must include a focus on the second tier leadership target audience. we have to be able to conduct a superior form of political warfare.
DPRK chief of general staff says army ready to carry out any decision by top leader
Photo provided by Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Oct. 3, 2019 shows the test-firing of the new-type ballistic missile, known as Pukguksong-3, in vertical mode in the waters off the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)'s eastern Wonsan Bay. (KCNA/Handout via Xinhua)
Pak Jong Chon, chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army (KPA), said here on Saturday the army was fully ready to thoroughly carry out any decision of the top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) Kim Jong Un.
"We should be ready to cope with political and military provocations of the hostile forces and be familiar with both dialogue and confrontation," Pak said in a statement which was carried by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
Pak also said he was glad that the Academy of Defense Science has recently registered successes in bolstering up the defense capabilities while "successfully conducting tests of great significance one after another."
The DPRK carried out "another crucial test" at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground on Friday evening, the KCNA reported Saturday.
Friday's test came about a week after the DPRK conducted what it called "a very important test" at the same satellite launch site on Dec. 7.
13. Activities resume on NK naval shipyard, SLBM demonstration should not be ruled out: think tank
Of course it would be quite a statement if the regime conducted multiple demonstrations in the coming weeks.
Activities resume on NK naval shipyard, SLBM demonstration should not be ruled out: think tank
Activities resume on NK naval shipyard, SLBM demonstration should not be ruled out: think tank
By Jo He-rim
Published : Dec 15, 2019 - 15:36
Updated : Dec 15, 2019 - 15:36
Minor activity has resumed at a submersible test stand barge at Nampo Naval Shipyard in North Korea, and there is the possibility that Pyongyang might test a submarine-launched ballistic missile before its year-end deadline, a US-based think tank said Sunday.
Satellite imagery collected in the last several months indicate that minor activity has resumed as of Dec. 2, after a two-month hiatus since September, said Joseph Bermudez and Victor Cha of Beyond Parallel, a team that specializes in North Korea issues at the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
(Screen captured from Parallel Beyond)
While the movements do not signal an imminent SLBM launch, the submersible test stand barge is likely capable of conducting one "at any time," the analysts explained.
"Despite this, readiness of the test stand barge indicates that a SLBM demonstration should not be ruled out as a potential upcoming demonstration with just over two weeks left in the DPRK's professed end-of-year diplomacy deadline," the analysts said, using the acronym for the official name of North Korea, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
After his second summit with US President Donald Trump broke down without any agreement in Vietnam in February, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for the US to come up with a new "creative" proposal, setting the end of the year as the deadline for their denuclearization negotiations.
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:
"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
US Congressman Adam Schiff | Commons
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