"No one understood better than Stalin that the true object of propaganda is neither to convince nor even to persuade, but to produce a uniform pattern of public utterance in which the first trace of unorthodox thought immediately reveals itself as a jarring dissonance."
-- Alan Bullock, British historian
The Oxford English Dictionary's 2016 "Word of the Year" is "post-truth". which is defined as "relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief."
"Education should implant a will and a facility for learning; it should produce not learned but learning people. In times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists."
- Eric Hoffer
1. USFK begins indefinite furloughs for Korean employees over stalled cost-sharing talks
2. 'We consider them family': US military furloughs thousands of South Korean employees in blow to alliance
3. Another person tests positive for coronavirus on Camp Humphreys, raising USFK total to 14
4. Defense cost-sharing deal is very near (South Korea)
5. WHO to spend US$900,000 to help N. Korea's fight against coronavirus
6. How North and South Korea's Systems Are Leading to Different Coronavirus Outcomes
7. Remember North Korea?
8. 6 European nations condemn North Korean missile launches
9. 100 smuggling ships anchored off North Korea as Kim fears they have coronavirus
10. China exempts N. Korean traders from ban on foreign arrivals
11.N. Korea's farms face shortages of fertilizer and other supplies
12. Where Is the Hole in Korea's Coronavirus Defenses?
13. U.S. military puts Korean workers on unpaid leave as talks over costs continue
14. Let the UN Command Remain a Tool for Korean Peace
1. USFK begins indefinite furloughs for Korean employees over stalled cost-sharing talks
We rejected the compromise that would have taken car of people. That may come back to haunt us in the next cycle of anti-American sentiment in Korea. Even if we miraculously reach an agreement in the coming days, at the very least one of the effects of this debacle is that it will be more difficult to attract Korean workers to work at USFK. There will be a fundamental lack of trust of the US. Working for the US may not be a stable form of employment.
Excerpts:
Calling the situation "unfortunate," "unthinkable" and "heartbreaking," Abrams pledged to support the workers and to continue emphasizing to both the U.S. and South Korean governments the need for a deal to end the furloughs.
"While this is an unfortunate situation and we will miss them dearly, we will work to minimize the impact on our 'fight tonight' posture despite the strenuous circumstances," Abrams said, calling the workers "vital to our mission and the Korea-U.S. alliance.
The impact may be worse as installation services have already been partially halted and soldiers' off-installation travel has been restricted due to the COVID-19 virus.
During the latest and seventh round of talks last month, South Korea proposed concluding a separate agreement to first address the wage issue, but the U.S. rejected the idea over concerns that such a move could further delay a comprehensive deal, Seoul's top negotiator Jeong Eun-bo has said.
(3rd LD) USFK begins indefinite furloughs for Korean employees over stalled cost-sharing talks | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: ADDS defense ministry's announcement in paras 17-18; RESTRUCTURES)
By Oh Seok-min
SEOUL, April 1 (Yonhap) -- Thousands of South Koreans working for the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) were furloughed indefinitely starting Wednesday amid a deadlock in defense cost-sharing negotiations between the two countries, sparking concerns over the possible impact on Korea's readiness posture.
The furloughs have also drawn criticism that Washington is risking the livelihoods of South Koreans who have worked many years for the USFK for the sake of its own financial interests and to pressure its ally in the defense cost talks.
South Korea and the United States have failed to bridge differences over a new Special Measures Agreement (SMA) that stipulates how much Seoul would pay for the upkeep of the 28,500-strong USFK.
"Today, approximately half of the USFK Korean National employee workforce has been furloughed due to a lapse in the Special Measures Agreement," USFK Commander Gen. Robert Abrams said in a message to the furloughed employees.
Salaries of about 9,000 workers are covered by the agreement.
In a notice sent to the workers subject to the unpaid leave last week, the U.S. Department of the Army said the furloughs would be in effect until further notice.
It is the first time that such a measure has been implemented since the establishment of the command in 1957.
Those who continue to work in areas of life, health, safety and other essential services will be paid by the U.S. government, as the Pentagon earlier pledged.
Calling the situation "unfortunate," "unthinkable" and "heartbreaking," Abrams pledged to support the workers and to continue emphasizing to both the U.S. and South Korean governments the need for a deal to end the furloughs.
"While this is an unfortunate situation and we will miss them dearly, we will work to minimize the impact on our 'fight tonight' posture despite the strenuous circumstances," Abrams said, calling the workers "vital to our mission and the Korea-U.S. alliance.
The impact may be worse as installation services have already been partially halted and soldiers' off-installation travel has been restricted due to the COVID-19 virus.
During the latest and seventh round of talks last month, South Korea proposed concluding a separate agreement to first address the wage issue, but the U.S. rejected the idea over concerns that such a move could further delay a comprehensive deal, Seoul's top negotiator Jeong Eun-bo has said.
Critics said the U.S. has been using the issue as leverage in the negotiations.
The USFK Korean Employees Union called for rapid normalization of the situation in a news conference held in front of the U.S. Army Garrison Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, 70 kilometers south of Seoul, on Wednesday, estimating about 4,000 of its 8,600 members have gone on unpaid leave.
"The livelihoods of (Korean) workers have been hit hard by the collapse of the talks with the U.S., particularly at a time when it is difficult to find day labor or part-time jobs due to the new coronavirus outbreak. This will also have a clear impact on the local economy around U.S. bases," the union said.
It continued, "The U.S.' unreasonable demand for Korea's increased share of the defense costs is to abandon the bilateral alliance and will trample the noble spirit of the USFK and its workers practicing a pure Korean-U.S. alliance."
It urged the Seoul government to request for thorough reform of the system in negotiations to prevent recurrence of the situation.
Seoul's defense ministry also voiced regret over the forced furloughs and vowed to come up with support measures for the affected workers by enacting a special law, such as extending emergency loans.
It also vowed close consultations with the U.S. to maintain a combined readiness posture.
While expressing regret over the planned furloughs, negotiator Jeong said Tuesday the two countries have considerably narrowed differences and expect the final conclusion of the negotiations in the near future.
On Wednesday, a diplomatic source also noted that the allies could announce a deal as early as later in the day, as they have reached "the stage of putting the finishing touches on the negotiations."
The U.S. has reportedly demanded a hefty increase in Seoul's financial contribution, while Seoul appears to have expressed its willingness to pay more than its earlier proposal of an approximate 10 percent increase.
The previous one-year SMA expired at the end of 2019. Under the deal, South Korea agreed on an 8.2 percent increase.
Members of the South Korean employees' union protest the U.S. Forces Korea furlough outside the main gate at Camp Humphreys, South Korea, Wednesday, April 1, 2020.
KIM GAMEL/STARS AND STRIPES
By KIM GAMEL AND YOO KYONG CHANG | STARS AND STRIPES
Published: April 1, 2020
CAMP HUMPHREYS, South Korea - Following months of warnings, the U.S. military put
4,500 South Korean base employees - about half its local workforce - on unpaid leave indefinitely Wednesday after the allies failed to agree on a new defense cost-sharing deal.
The furlough - the first of its kind - was a blow to the alliance and joint military readiness to fight on the divided peninsula, which commanders say already has been
jeopardized by restrictions on movement aimed at preventing the spread of the coronavirus.
Negotiators have been deadlocked over the United States' demand that South Korea sharply increase its contribution to offset the costs of stationing some 28,500 service members on the divided peninsula as defense against the nuclear-armed North.
U.S. Forces Korea commander Gen. Robert Abrams expressed regret and promised to continue to press both governments to reach a new Special Measures Agreement as soon as possible since the previous deal expired at the end of the year.
"The partial furlough of (South Korean) employees is not what we envisioned or hoped what would happen," he said in a videotaped message. "The furlough is in no way a reflection of their performance, dedication or conduct, but rather due to a lack of a burden-sharing agreement making programmed funds unavailable."
"These are our employees, our co-workers, our teammates, and we consider them family," he added. "And while this is an unfortunate situation, and we will miss them dearly, we will work to minimize the impact on our 'fight tonight' posture despite the strenuous circumstances."
South Korean officials blamed the American side, saying they had offered compromises including a way to isolate the labor issue while continuing to negotiate on other items.
"Our government has suggested a variety of measures, including the execution of a budget to address the wage issue first, based upon the notion that the furlough does help the combined defense posture," said defense ministry spokeswoman Choi Hyun-soo.
She added that the government would push for a special law to grant loans to help the USFK employees who were ordered not to report to work.
"The ministry will continue to work closely with the U.S. Department of Defense and USFK to prevent the current situation from affecting the joint posture," she said.
The Americans had been paying salaries for the first three months of 2020 with programmed funds, but those dried up on Tuesday.
Pong Ha-song, a 60-year-old dining facility employee who has been with USFK for nearly 30 years, said he hopes a deal can be reached soon so he can go back to work.
"President Trump has been holding Korean USFK workers hostage. This is a hard blow for us," he said Wednesday as he joined the Korean Employees' Union in a small protest outside Camp Humphreys, the main U.S. base south of Seoul.
"My family's livelihood is in danger and I'm going to have difficulties putting food on the table," he added. "If the furlough drags on, I think I'm going to have to look for a part-time job or something."
Hopes were raised when South Korean President Moon Jae-in agreed to send
coronavirus testing kits to the U.S. during a phone conversation with Trump last week. Three South Korean firms are planning to ship the diagnostic equipment after winning interim approval from the Food and Drug Administration.
On Tuesday, Jeong Eun-bo, South Korea's lead negotiator, said the two sides were
close to a deal after seven rounds of talks, most recently in mid-March in Los Angeles, and were continuing close discussions.
The Yonhap News Agency, quoting an unidentified diplomatic source, also reported that the two sides had reached "the stage of putting on the finishing touches" and could announce a deal later Wednesday.
But a Foreign Ministry official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with department rules, played down the report and said no official announcement was in the works.
U.S. negotiators have reportedly dropped initial demands for a fivefold increase in funding of nearly $5 billion a year but are still seeking an increase of at least three times the $920 million that South Korea paid last year.
Seoul, meanwhile, is believed to have offered to go as high as 10% more but wants to maintain the framework of the agreement, which covers most of the South Korean workers' salaries as well as other logistical and construction costs.
Customers wait in line to enter the commissary at Camp Humphreys, South Korea, Friday, March 27, 2020.
MATTHEW KEELER/STARS AND STRIPES
By STARS AND STRIPES
Published: April 1, 2020
Stars and Stripes is making stories on the coronavirus pandemic available free of charge. See other free reports here. Sign up for our daily coronavirus newsletter here. Please support our journalism with a subscription.
SEOUL, South Korea - U.S. Forces Korea confirmed another positive coronavirus case at Camp Humphreys on Wednesday, raising its total to 14, the military said.
Thorough cleaning of affected areas and contact tracing to find others who may have been exposed was underway, USFK said in a tweet. It didn't provide more details, saying additional information would be announced soon.
The latest case comes as Camp Humphreys, the main U.S. military base in South Korea, has been partially locked down since Friday after four other cases were confirmed.
Two soldiers have been infected. The others were four military dependents, four American contractors and four South Korean employees.
Orders barring nonessential movement on Camp Humphreys, a sprawling base with a population of more than 37,000 people, would remain in effect at least through Thursday, USFK has said.
4. Defense cost-sharing deal is very near (South Korea)
Maybe these reports are simply April Fool's Day jokes. (apologies for the snark)
Seriously, a now $4 billion demand versus an offer of a 10% increase (which I think would put it just over $1 billion) still seems like a pretty big difference in positions. Hard to see how we could be very near a deal when we seem to be so far apart.
Excerpts:
Jeong Eun-bo, Korea's top negotiator for the SMA, said Tuesday evening that the two sides were at the "final stages" of reaching a cost-sharing deal while expressing "regret" for the furlough of the Korean employees of the USFK.
There have been a total of seven rounds of talks since the negotiations for the 11th SMA kicked off last September.
Jeong held three-day talks from March 17 with his American counterpart, James DeHart, the senior adviser for security negotiations and agreements in the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, in Los Angeles.
Washington has been calling for Seoul to pay about $4 billion a year, which is lower than its initial demand of some $5 billion annually, a nearly fivefold increase in Korea's contribution. Seoul has called for an increase of about 10 percent.
In the 10th SMA signed in February 2019, Seoul agreed to pay around 1.04 trillion won, which amounted to some $920 million at the time of implementation and around 8.2 percent more than what it spent the previous year.
Phone call between Moon and Trump on March 24 helped
Apr 01,2020
Korea and the United States are on the brink of reaching a new bilateral defense cost-sharing deal, said multiple Seoul sources Wednesday, following a breakthrough phone call between President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump last week.
Wednesday was the first day that over 4,000 Korean employees of the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), or around half the Korean personnel working for the American military, went on furlough because of the delays in reaching a new bilateral Special Measures Agreement (SMA).
Seoul and Washington have reached a provisional agreement amid tough negotiations for the 11th SMA determining Korea's contribution to the stationing of 28,500 U.S. troops in the country, according to a Korean government official Wednesday, and were in "final discussions." The previous one-year deal expired on Dec. 31.
Signing a new bilateral pact could resolve the issue of Korean workers for the USFK being forced onto unpaid leave for an indefinite period, an unprecedented situation Seoul has expressed regret over.
Moon's and Trump's phone call on March 24 discussing the coronavirus pandemic is said to have brought needed momentum to the deadlocked SMA talks.
In the latest SMA, the two sides are looking for a five-year deal, according to sources in Seoul, and Korea is expected to pay roughly pay 10 percent more than the previous year.
Jeong Eun-bo, Korea's top negotiator for the SMA, said Tuesday evening that the two sides were at the "final stages" of reaching a cost-sharing deal while expressing "regret" for the furlough of the Korean employees of the USFK.
There have been a total of seven rounds of talks since the negotiations for the 11th SMA kicked off last September.
Jeong held three-day talks from March 17 with his American counterpart, James DeHart, the senior adviser for security negotiations and agreements in the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, in Los Angeles.
Washington has been calling for Seoul to pay about $4 billion a year, which is lower than its initial demand of some $5 billion annually, a nearly fivefold increase in Korea's contribution. Seoul has called for an increase of about 10 percent.
In the 10th SMA signed in February 2019, Seoul agreed to pay around 1.04 trillion won, which amounted to some $920 million at the time of implementation and around 8.2 percent more than what it spent the previous year.
The two countries have conducted routine negotiations since 1991 to decide Korea's financial contribution to the non-personnel costs associated with keeping U.S. troops in the country.
While the two sides have often passed the deadline for SMA negotiations in recent years, including for the 10th SMA, this is the first time that Korean workers for the USFK have actually been furloughed.
The USFK on March 25 issued final notices to thousands of Korean personnel saying they will have to go on unpaid leave for an indefinite period of time, despite Seoul having tried to make arrangements with Washington that would guarantee their wages.
"Today, approximately half of the USFK Korean national employee workforce have been furloughed due to a lapse in the Special Measures Agreement," Gen. Robert Abrams, commander of the USFK, said in a message to the furloughed Korean employees Wednesday.
Abrams called the situation "unthinkable" and "heartbreaking," stressing that the Korean personnel are "vital to our mission" and to the bilateral alliance.
He continued, "And while this is an unfortunate situation and we will miss them dearly, we will work to minimize the impact on our 'fight tonight' posture despite the strenuous circumstances."
Abrams then emphasized the need for Seoul and Washington to agree upon an SMA "in order to end the partial furlough."
Choi Hyun-soo, a spokesperson for the Korean Defense Ministry, expressed "deep regret" over the furloughs Wednesday and said that the "government will make various proposals and negotiate with the United States based on the recognition that furloughing Korean workers is not helpful for the combined defense posture."
Choi said earlier this week that the Defense Ministry is also working on legislation that would compensate the Korean workers from the government budget.
SEOUL, April 1 (Yonhap) -- The World Health Organization will spend $900,000 to support North Korea's efforts to prevent the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, data showed Wednesday.
According to the data posted on the website of the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the WHO will spend the money on COVID-19 response activities in North Korea.
The money was allocated to the agency through the U.N. Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) as part of an "early action response" to global containment of the coronavirus, the website showed.
The North has not reported any confirmed coronavirus infections, but the country has intensified anti-virus efforts by shutting down its border and toughening quarantine criteria amid speculation that it might be concealing an outbreak.
6. How North and South Korea's Systems Are Leading to Different Coronavirus Outcomes
Democracy versus authoritarianism dictatorship. I just hope those in South Korea who lean toward authoritarianism realize how superior is liberal democracy and will work to protect it. I always find it incredible there are those in the South who think the northern system is superior or something worth emulating.
The author also notes the single most important condition for peace on the Korean peninsula. north Korea (and more specifically the Kim family regime has to change - but any change to the political and economic system in the north is a mortal threat to the existence of the regime).
Excerpts:
Even if COVID-19 has not spread in North Korea, it has already had a great impact on North Korean society. This is because the North Korean economy faces greater difficulties with COVID-19 following the international sanctions against North Korea. Satellite images indicate that North Korea's major port facilities are closed. As North Korea closed its borders, most of its imports and exports from China and Russia were stopped. The price of coal and iron ore, North Korea's major exports, has fallen sharply in recent years. It is known that North Korea's shortage of foreign currency is getting worse due to the drop in prices of major exports and the suspension of trade. In effect this means North Korea is suffering from a new form of economic sanctions in the shape of COVID-19.
...
Although COVID-19 caused severe damage to the North Korean economy, Pyongyang has not reached out to the international community. While North Korea has great awareness of the seriousness of the disease, it chose to close its society again as it did in response to globalization. As opposed to North Korea, South Korea has left the door open and sought to manage the virus together with the international community. Because North Korea was not confident in its internal security, it could not open the door to the outside world even with this pandemic crisis. These two completely different faces of globalization are revealed by COVID-19. Yet, if North Korea changes its course of action and reaches out to the international community for help, we might have another chance at a breakthrough in bringing the peace back to the Korean Peninsula.
How North and South Korea's Systems Are Leading to Different Coronavirus Outcomes
As the Korean peninsula has been divided for the past seventy years, the two Koreas have shown completely different faces in almost all aspects. As is well known, South Korea has been praised by the international community as a country that achieved both democratic transition and economic prosperity, while North Korea has been notorious for its oppressive political system and closed society. Also, regarding globalization, the two Koreas have taken completely different paths. While South Korea has actively responded to globalization and pursued a transparent and open society, North Korea has refused to globalize and created its own closed world. The different faces of two Koreas are also apparent in their response to COVID-19.
Ironically, the global spread of COVID-19 has become a typical phenomenon of globalization. South Korea, which actively globalized, was strongly affected by this globalization of pandemic disease and suffered from massive damage. North Korea, which has refused to globalize, has also tried to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Given the global spread of COVID-19 and its damages, we see the negative impact of globalization. However, even COVID-19 makes globalization further necessary in the process of overcoming it. In this, the two Koreas have shown such a striking difference in responding to the crisis.
COVID-19 and the Globalized Face of South Korea
In a recent online summit of G20, the South Korean President Moon Jae-in has called for international solidarity in fighting off a coronavirus-triggered global crisis. He mentioned, "Over the last 2 months, (South) Korea has been at the center of the COVID-19 challenge... yet preemptive and transparent quarantine measures, combined with the public's voluntary and democratic participation in such efforts, are bringing gradual stability." South Korea, both the government and the civil society, has responded to the COVID-19 by adhering to the principles of openness, transparency and democracy.
In fact, the COVID-19 has posed a serious threat to the South Korean healthcare systems, financial market and civil society. However, South Korea has not imposed a total restriction on cross-border movements of people and goods. Of course, there was harsh domestic criticism on the government's restriction policy. Some Korean people demanded a total closure of the border after COVID-19 emerged first in China and then when the secretive Korean religious sect Shincheonji spread it rapidly in South Korea. However, South Korea made efforts to minimize restrictions by undertaking the "special entry procedures" for those incoming from the countries with large-scale outbreaks while also maximizing the impact of quarantine.
Furthermore, South Korea has taken open and transparent measures by ensuring all relevant information is made available at home and abroad. For this purpose, South Korea has come up with a variety of creative and brilliant tools. It has conducted an unprecedented number of tests and has sought to identify and track down transmission pathways. In particular, highly accurate diagnostic reagents were developed before the COVID-19 spread in Korea, and they made quick and timely tests possible. Nationwide "drive-through" testing sites were set up to respond to the overwhelming number of outbreaks. Additionally, "walk-through" testing sites were built at the major airports for timely and swift testing for inbound travelers from abroad. The South Korean government has also utilized a "self-quarantine application" to closely monitor self-isolated people.
Although South Korea will struggle to fight and defeat COVID-19 to the very end, it will still remain open and connected to the international community. Indeed, the Korean people have proposed to further bolster international solidarity and coordinate policy responses to overcome this global crisis.
COVID-19 and the Anti-Globalization Face of North Korea
Unfortunately, North Korea's measure to COVID-19 has been exactly the opposite from that of South Korea. North Korea has responded to COVID-19 in the same way it responded to globalization. As COVID-19 started spreading, what North Korea did first was to close its borders. It even blocked the border with China, despite relying on that country for 90 percent of their trade. As a closed country, North Korea chose to close more. It is important to recognize how big the threat of the spread of COVID-19 has become to North Korea, where the healthcare system is especially vulnerable.
There is officially not a single COVID-19 case confirmed in North Korea yet. Of course, this claim is difficult to believe, but North Korea refers to itself as a COVID-19 clean nation. However, it is not clear whether there are even diagnostic kits in North Korea. For instance, there are no reports of the use of diagnostic reagents in the North Korean media. Also, North Korea has not responded to the South Korean government's offer to aid in diagnostic reagents. Yet, Russia reportedly delivered 1,500 diagnostic reagents to North Korea and Pyongyang recently asked the international community to send COVID-19 diagnostic kits.
Despite this situation, North Korea is not indifferent to COVID-19. The North Korean media has reported the spread of this pandemic disease worldwide and the South Korean situation every day. The Rodong Shinmun-the official newspaper by the North Korean Workers' Party-has been recently raising awareness among the North Korea people with several articles on aggressive prevention measures. This outlet also reported that North Korea has just started constructing a new Pyongyang General Hospital and plans to complete it in only 200 days. Finally, U.S. President Donald Trump's letter offering COVID-19 aid to the Chairman Kim Jong-un was made public immediately by Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un's younger sister.
Even if COVID-19 has not spread in North Korea, it has already had a great impact on North Korean society. This is because the North Korean economy faces greater difficulties with COVID-19 following the international sanctions against North Korea. Satellite images indicate that North Korea's major port facilities are closed. As North Korea closed its borders, most of its imports and exports from China and Russia were stopped. The price of coal and iron ore, North Korea's major exports, has fallen sharply in recent years. It is known that North Korea's shortage of foreign currency is getting worse due to the drop in prices of major exports and the suspension of trade. In effect this means North Korea is suffering from a new form of economic sanctions in the shape of COVID-19.
Meanwhile, North Korea has recently launched several projectiles to its east sea. These missile tests would have normally attracted much attention from international media, but this time it did not receive much attention, because the whole world was focusing on the fight against COVID-19. However, the international community considered North Korea's provocations to be very inappropriate.
Although COVID-19 caused severe damage to the North Korean economy, Pyongyang has not reached out to the international community. While North Korea has great awareness of the seriousness of the disease, it chose to close its society again as it did in response to globalization. As opposed to North Korea, South Korea has left the door open and sought to manage the virus together with the international community. Because North Korea was not confident in its internal security, it could not open the door to the outside world even with this pandemic crisis. These two completely different faces of globalization are revealed by COVID-19. Yet, if North Korea changes its course of action and reaches out to the international community for help, we might have another chance at a breakthrough in bringing the peace back to the Korean Peninsula.
Jihwan Hwang, Ph.D, is a Professor of International Relations at the University of Seoul, in South Korea.
Image: Reuters
7. Remember North Korea?
Lil Kim is waving his arms and jumping up and down and saying "don't you forget about me."
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaks during a ruling Workers' Party's meeting in North Korea. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)
more >
ANALYSIS/OPINION:
You could almost hear world leaders saying, "not now, we're busy!" Even as the coronavirus crisis intensifies around the world, North Korea's Stalinist regime continues its belligerent antics.
"North Korea fired at least three unidentified projectiles off its east coast Monday, South Korea's military said, two days after the North threatened to take "momentous" action to protest outside condemnation over its earlier live-fire exercises," CBS News reported this week. "In the past 10 days, North Korea said leader Kim Jong Un supervised two rounds of live-fire artillery exercises in its first weapons tests since late November. Those launches came after Kim entered the new year with a vow to bolster his nuclear deterrent and not be bound by a major weapons test moratorium amid a deadlock in a U.S.-led diplomacy aimed at convincing Kim to abandon his nuclear program in return for economic and political benefits."
North Korea often acts up when it feels it isn't being paid sufficient attention on the global stage. The latest weapons tests are an annoyance and a reminder of the malignant nature of the regime. They are also probably an attempt to play for sanctions relief or more generous aid.
But they are not an immediate crisis. America, and the world, should maintain its maximum pressure campaign and let Kim Jong-un stomp his feet and get mad.
8. 6 European nations condemn North Korean missile launches
Europe does not seem to be forgetting about north
Korea. (not that their condemnation will have much influence on Kim Jong-un) And not is not the time to go wobbly on sanctions. We have to counter
Russian and Chinese efforts to get sanctions lifted.
China and Russia have called for the easing of sanctions against North Korea to spur a resumption of talks between Pyongyang and Washington. But their joint resolution proposing some easing has languished in the Security Council because the U.S., its Western allies and other members want to see North Korean actions toward denuclearization before any measures are lifted.
6 European nations condemn North Korean missile launches
Edith M. LedererThe Associated PressPublished Tuesday, March 31, 2020 7:51PM EDT
In this file photo, people watch a TV showing file images of North Korea's missile launch during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, March 9, 2020. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
SHARE
TANZANIA, TANZANIA -- The U.N. Security Council didn't issue a statement after discussing North Korea's latest missile tests but six European nations on the council are condemning Pyongyang' repeated launches, saying they illustrate its ongoing efforts to develop its ballistic missile programs and expand its arsenal.
Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom said in a statement after a closed council discussion Tuesday that they are deeply concerned by North Korea's continued testing of missiles, using ballistic missile technology.
The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the country's official name, has conducted 17 sets of missile launches since May 2019 including four this month, the latest on March 29.
"We condemn such provocative actions," the Europeans said. "They undermine regional security and stability, as well as international peace and security, and are in clear violation of unanimously adopted UN Security Council resolutions."
Germany's deputy U.N. ambassador Juergen Schulz told the council it was sad that North Korea is giving priority to its illegal weapons programs instead of making global solidarity and co-operation a top priority and working with the World Health Organization and the U.N. on "the unprecedented global threat faced by the COVID-19 pandemic."
"Unfortunately, there seems to be a lack of transparency in DPRK's co-operation with the U.N. over COVID-19 which we find dangerous and cynical," he said.
The Security Council committee monitoring sanctions against North Korea which Germany heads has granted "all COVID-19 related humanitarian exemption requests with unprecedented speed and urgency," Schulz said. "The sanctions are therefore no impediment to effectively combating COVID-19 in the DPRK."
Talks to rein in North Korea's nuclear program have stalemated since the collapse of the second summit between the North's leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump in early 2019, where the Americans rejected North Korean demands for major sanctions relief in exchange for a partial surrender of its nuclear capabilities.
Following the breakdown in talks, the North ended a 17-month pause in ballistic activity and resumed weapons launches while pressuring Washington and Seoul for concessions. The weapons launches included a developmental mid-range missile that could be launched from submarines, a "super large" multiple rocket launcher, and a new mobile, solid-fuel missile system.
The joint statement again urged North Korea "to engage in good faith in meaningful negotiations with the United States aimed at denuclearization, to take concrete steps to abandoning all weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner, and to refrain from further provocations."
"There is no other way to achieve security and stability on the Korean peninsula," the Europeans said. "Continued provocations risk undermining the prospect for successful negotiations."
They called on the Security Council and all countries to implement sanctions against North Korea.
China and Russia have called for the easing of sanctions against North Korea to spur a resumption of talks between Pyongyang and Washington. But their joint resolution proposing some easing has languished in the Security Council because the U.S., its Western allies and other members want to see North Korean actions toward denuclearization before any measures are lifted.
9. 100 smuggling ships anchored off North Korea as Kim fears they have coronavirus
The coronavirus: Doing to north Korea what the UN and the international community could not do.
100 smuggling ships anchored off North Korea as Kim fears they have coronavirus
MORE than 100 North Korean smuggling ships lie anchored offshore as Kim Jong-un fears they may bring in coronavirus, it has been revealed.
Satellite photos show the huge ghost fleet sitting off the coast - as Pyongyang continues to claim it has no confirmed cases of Covid-19.
⚠️ Read our coronavirus live blog for the latest news & updates
Dozens of North Korean ships gathered in the West Sea Barrage near NampoCredit: Rusi
Experts at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a respected London-based think tank, gathered the images as part of Project Sandstone - an effort to analyse and account
Kim's black market shipping trade.
North Korea relies heavily on its fleet of cargo ships to smuggle raw materials such as coal and iron ore which are then sold abroad in breach of economic sanctions.
Aerial pictures show an "unprecedented number" of ships anchored off the coast - in particular around the ports of Nampo and Chongjin.
Experts said the new measures are likely a reaction to the global outbreak of the
coronavirus.
Kim is believed to have recalled the fleet and anchored it off the coast in bid to stop the spread of Covid-19.
RUSI research fellow James Byrne told The Sun Online: "
As the Coronavirus crisis escalated, we began to see a large uptick in vessels returning to North Korean ports on satellite imagery.
"Throughout late February and early March, ports such as Nampo became very busy.
"These ships were not moving and appeared to be idled for weeks - we'd never seen anything like this in North Korea before.
"I do not think there is any other feasible explanation than the fact that they - one, don't want anyone catching the virus, and two, that they may even be quarantining sailorsaboard these ships out at sea."
Project Sandstone found large numbers of ships were gathering in the port city of NampoCredit: Rusi
Satellite photos suggest some the ships may still have their crews still on board in an enforced quarantine at sea.
North Korea imposed a mandatory 30-day quarantine on anyone entering the country back in January to try and fight the coronavirus.
Measures were also introduced at ports to try and stop the spread of coronavirus from ships, many of which were returning from China.
Mr Byrne explained: "
These ships specifically load commodities like iron ore and coal and deliver them to buyers internationally.
"This is often mined by slave labour or people in North Korea for very low prices and then it's sold abroad in US Dollars or Chinese RMB.
"North Korea needs foreign revenue, so the Kim regime is specifically reliant on the export of those goods.
He added: "
It is difficult to know how long it will go on - but I suspect it will have very serious economic impacts for them.
"The same of coal and other resources such as iron ore are ultimately one of the pillars of the North Korea economy.
"They do have other methods of raising revenue, historically they have sold weapons, missiles and all sorts of things.
"But it is questionable whether or not those are moving as well with all the fleet shuttered in."
Smuggling ships anchored in Nampo amid the coronavirus outbreakCredit: RusiKim Jong-un is thought to have the left the vessels at sea amid coronavirus fearsCredit: Rusi
It is feared Kim's regime lacks even basic medicines and equipment to treat the country's 25 million citizens - let alone tackle a pandemic.
Coronavirus could be devastating for average North Koreans who already face health problems such as malnutrition.
And the nation's neighbour South Korea was also once one of the epicentres of the outbreak.
Almost 800,000 people have been confirmed infected worldwide, with nearly 38,000 deaths.
'ZERO CASES'
Mr Byrne told The Sun Online: "
As with SARS they are going to take these things very seriously.
"The internal healthcare systems in Pyongyang are relatively backwards compared to other parts of the world.
"They are not hugely resourced, and it would be a massive problem for them if it spread internally - and who knows what the actual figures are? I would be skeptical there are no cases.
"One mitigating factor for them is that they are pretty good at enforcing a lockdown."
Kim did react quickly to reports of infection - with Project Sandstone suggesting the regime knew how badly they could be impacted by an outbreak - by closing the borders to tourists on January 22.
North Korea expert Jung H. Pak, a former CIA analyst, has previously said it is "impossible" that North Korea does not have a single case of coronavirus.
He said Kim's boasts about tackling the virus are a way of distracting from the country's crumbling economy and shocking human rights record.
North Korea relies on illicit shipping to sell raw materials in breach of sanctionsCredit: Rusi
General Robert Abrams - a commander of US Forces Korea - also cast doubt over North Korea's claims.
He said: "It is a closed-off nation, so we can't say emphatically that they have cases, but we're fairly certain they do.
"What I do know is that their armed forces had been fundamentally in a lockdown for about 30 days and only recently have they started routine training again.
"As one example, they didn't fly an airplane for 24 days."
Various disturbing reports have also emerged from North Korea suggesting there is an ongoing outbreak.
The patient was reportedly arrested by officers and immediately shot as part of measures to avoid the killer outbreak spreading.
And it has also been reported that at least 180 North Korea soldiers had died of the virus as large swathes of the military are on lockdown.
Coronavirus has spread round the world - but not to North Korea
The United States have also said they are "deeply concerned" about the vulnerability of North Korea to a coronavirus outbreak.
Speaking on Friday, South Korean prime minister Chung Sye-kyun said the "situation is probably not good in North Korea".
He added however that Kim has yet to request help from the South in tackling the virus.
Dr. Kee B. Park, from Harvard Medical School, who has worked to help improve healthcare in North Korea, suggested the reason they have no cases is because they cannot test for coronavirus.
'BLATANT LIE'
He told the New York Times: "You can see immediately what's going to happen if you get a surge of Covid-19 patients streaming in.
"It will overwhelm the system very quickly."
Meanwhile, Seo Jae-pyoung, from the Association of North Korean Defectors, said it was a "blatant lie" that North Korea has no cases of Covid-19.
He said: "The last thing the North wants is a social chaos that may erupt when North Koreans realize the people are dying of an epidemic with no cure."
Kim Jong-un has not confirmed any coronavirus cases in North KoreaCredit: AP:Associated Press
North Korea has continued to test weapons during the global pandemic, a move which was condemned by South Korea as "inappropriate".
Tensions still remain in the region as talks on Kim giving up his nukes have stalled despite overtures between him and US President Donald Trump.
President Trump has written to North Korea offering to help fight the coronavirus pandemic.
He reportedly praised the dictator for working to defend his people from the outbreak.
North Korean state media reported the letter was a sign of "special" and "very firm" relations between Trump and Kim.
Meanwhile, Britain remains in lockdown as the fight against the virus continues - with the death toll surging yesterday to over 1,400.
Kim Jong-un is rushing the build a new hospital amid the coronavirus pandemicCredit: Credit: Pen NewsPeople attend a groundbreaking ceremony for the new Pyongyang General HospitalCredit: Reuters
Inside a South Korean Covid-19 intensive care unit
10. China exempts N. Korean traders from ban on foreign arrivals
What does China know? Is the potential for internal instability in the north growing? Is allowing trade more important than killing he virus? Can China accept risk of he virus to deal with the great threat of potential instability ad regime collapse?
But the question is whether north Korean traders' fear of the coronavirus will prevent them from trading with Chinese business?
Fears over the continued spread of COVID-19 in China has sparked fears among some North Korean traders.
"North Korean traders are hearing from Chinese traders that COVID-19 infections are still spreading in the country, so they're worried about whether they should even enter China," another source in China told Daily NK.
China exempts N. Korean traders from ban on foreign arrivals - Daily NK
Despite slapping a ban on the entry of foreign nationals into the country amid coronavirus concerns, China has given an exemption to North Korean traders, Daily NK has learned.
"A special measure that allows citizens from both countries to cross over the border was put into place from midnight on Mar. 27," a China-based source told Daily NK on Monday.
"Mainly traders have applied for special temporary trade permits to conduct cross-border business activities," he added.
China's foreign ministry announced on Mar. 26 through its official website that the country had decided to temporarily suspend entry into China by foreign nationals with visas or residence permits.
Only North Korean traders who have been "pre-approved" for travel can reportedly receive temporary entry permits into China. They must have health certificates to prove they do not have COVID-19 as well as work-related certificates issued by North Korean authorities, Daily NK sources said.
Temporary travel permits are expected to be issued to North Koreans who focus on the import of medicinal supplies, fertilizer and construction materials.
PAYING A PRICE
A key issue between the Chinese and North Koreans during negotiations on the exemption agreement reportedly centered on the sale of North Korean minerals to China.
Daily NK sources said that North Korea agreed to supply China with various coals, gold, silver, copper, zinc, and other mafic minerals for prices discounted by some 40% than normal.
The two countries reportedly agreed to transport the minerals by boat because of practical difficulties surrounding the transport of the goods over land.
They also agreed to start transport of the minerals in September, when the two sides ostensibly believe the threat from COVID-19 will have dissipated.
UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea ban the export of minerals from the country.
COVID-19 CONCERNS CONTINUE
Some Daily NK sources suggested that China's blanket ban on foreigners entering the country may have to do with failures by the Chinese to control outbreaks of COVID-19 in the country.
"COVID-19 patients continue to crop up in the border area between North Korea and China as well as the three northeastern provinces-Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang Province. Local disease control units have blocked entry into individual villages, barred travel between villages, and are generally preventing information from getting out," one China-based source said.
"China is resorting to banning the entry of foreigners into the country because they may just be unable to control the spread of the disease," he speculated.
Fears over the continued spread of COVID-19 in China has sparked fears among some North Korean traders.
"North Korean traders are hearing from Chinese traders that COVID-19 infections are still spreading in the country, so they're worried about whether they should even enter China," another source in China told Daily NK.
*Translated by Violet Kim
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to [email protected].
11. N. Korea's farms face shortages of fertilizer and other supplies
I heard from an escapee friend that the Chinese have recently provided some 300,000 tons of fertilizer and other aid to the north. But I have not seen any open source reporting on that. If that is the case it obviously has not made it to the people with whom the Daily NK is interviewing.
N. Korea's farms face shortages of fertilizer and other supplies - Daily NK
"Farms are lacking agricultural supplies throughout the province even as we are heading into the planting season," a North Hwanghae Province-based source reported on Mar. 31.
North Korean farms typically focus on preparing for the year's farming during January to March, acquiring needed fertilizer, pesticides and other supplies.
The country's agricultural sector, however, relies on imports of agricultural supplies and typically trading companies are putting on all their efforts into acquiring supplies during this period.
With the closure of the Sino-North Korean border and a general halt in trade and smuggling across the border, however, farms are not getting the supplies they need this year.
"North Korean authorities are telling farms to figure out things themselves, even telling them to make their own electricity," the source said. "Farmers are upset."
North Korean officials have moved to increase supplies of fertilizer to farms by ordering fertilizer factories throughout the country to increase their production beyond this year's original production quotas.
"Factory managers are full of anxiety because they have to create massive amounts of fertilizer - more than they are accustomed to," the source noted.
North Korean cities and counties typically have their own fertilizer factories. Most of these factories, however, are small-scale and are unable to produce enough to supply all the farms in their respective areas.
Some farmers have reportedly expressed hope that South Korea will send over agricultural supplies, Daily NK sources said.
"An increasing number of people are hoping that the South Koreans jump in to help given that the border with China remains closed," one source told Daily NK.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to [email protected].
12. Where Is the Hole in Korea's Coronavirus Defenses?
A strong critique here. Most of the western press has been very favorable to the South Korean coronavirus efforts. Some would say overly favorable.
Once Korea starts putting all arrivals from abroad in self-quarantine, their numbers would rise by 7,000 a day, reaching 100,000 in two weeks. That would require a tremendous number of administrative and quarantine personnel. Frontline public servants are already crying out for help, but the government says there is no problem. Among 100,000 people who arrived in Korea over the last two weeks, 10,000-15,000 are apparently foreigners. Why should the country have to strain its medical and financial resources for them?
The government is in a bind. It does not want to admit its earlier mistake of not banning Chinese visitors altogether for fear of agitating Beijing and pouring cold water on prospects of a visit from Chinese President Xi Jinping. But that means it has to leave the doors wide open to everyone even as Koreans are banned from most countries. Now Japan says it plans to ban visitors from Korea, China and the U.S. The president says, "A single individual must not be allowed to destroy everyone's hard work." Who is that single individual?
Where Is the Hole in Korea's Coronavirus Defenses?
President Moon Jae-in has called for tougher measures to deal with travelers from overseas spreading coronavirus. "A tiny hole can cause the levee to break," Moon said in a meeting Tuesday as if it had just occurred to him, and told officials to make sure that all arrivals from abroad quarantine themselves for two weeks.
Unlike some other viruses, COVID-19 can be transmitted by carriers who show no symptoms. The latency period can perhaps last up to a month, and there is no test for antibodies and no solid information of how effective they are. That is why initial quarantine is so essential in combating the virus. But Moon himself left Korea's borders wide open to visitors from China, the source of the virus, in the initial phase of the epidemic. How could someone responsible for creating such a gaping hole possibly hector officials like that.
Experts like the Korean Society of Infectious Diseases and Korean Medical Association had repeatedly called on the government to restrict the entry of travelers from China, but the government blamed Koreans who returned from China carrying the virus. As the borders remained wide open, confirmed coronavirus cases have reached almost 10,000 and the death toll surpassed 160. The only reason Korea was able to contain the epidemic at this level was thanks to the active participation of the public in maintaining social distancing and other preventive measures plus the sacrifices of medical workers.
Once Korea starts putting all arrivals from abroad in self-quarantine, their numbers would rise by 7,000 a day, reaching 100,000 in two weeks. That would require a tremendous number of administrative and quarantine personnel. Frontline public servants are already crying out for help, but the government says there is no problem. Among 100,000 people who arrived in Korea over the last two weeks, 10,000-15,000 are apparently foreigners. Why should the country have to strain its medical and financial resources for them?
The government is in a bind. It does not want to admit its earlier mistake of not banning Chinese visitors altogether for fear of agitating Beijing and pouring cold water on prospects of a visit from Chinese President Xi Jinping. But that means it has to leave the doors wide open to everyone even as Koreans are banned from most countries. Now Japan says it plans to ban visitors from Korea, China and the U.S. The president says, "A single individual must not be allowed to destroy everyone's hard work." Who is that single individual?
13. U.S. military puts Korean workers on unpaid leave as talks over costs continue
Jonathan Pollack sums it up here with one caveat. It is not DOD that is pushing for more money (and it is not State who is responsible for the negotiations). They are simply carrying the President's water. I think every negotiator and every State and DOD official knows that our demands are unreasonable and damaging to the alliance. But they are doing their jobs and working to achieve the President's directives - which is to extract more money from our allies.
Jonathan Pollack, a senior nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution, pointed out the irony of the White House requesting assistance from South Korea to combat the coronavirus even as the Pentagon continues to push for more money from the country.
"It's both a colossal mess and potentially a very dangerous one," he said.
U.S. military puts Korean workers on unpaid leave as talks over costs continue
TOKYO - The commander of U.S. troops in South Korea said he was heartbroken on Wednesday after taking the unprecedented step of putting about 4,000 local workers on unpaid leave - in the midst of the coronavirus epidemic - as the allies struggle to reach agreement on sharing defense costs.
The impasse stems from President Trump's demand that Seoul raise more than fivefold its contribution to the cost of stationing about 28,500 U.S. troops in the country, a demand that South Korea says is politically impossible to meet.
Negotiators have since narrowed the gap between the two sides, and South Korea believes a deal may be close. But with money running out, the U.S. military command in South Korea placed nearly half the South Korean workers at its military bases on unpaid leave on Wednesday, for the first time in the history of the 70-year alliance.
"This is an unfortunate day for us. It's unthinkable. It's heartbreaking," Gen. Robert B. Abrams, commander of U.S. Forces Korea, told the furloughed workers. The partial furlough "is not what we envisioned or hoped would happen," he said, according to a transcript of his remarks.
A union representing the South Korean workers said that about 4,000 of the U.S. bases' 8,500 local employees were furloughed.
On Tuesday, South Korean negotiator Jeong Eun-bo said the decision to furlough the workers "does not properly reflect the situation of the negotiations" and called it regrettable.
Jeong said negotiations for a new deal were in their "final phase" and that he expected an agreement to be concluded soon.
"There seems to have been some progress, but the negotiations are still underway," an official with South Korea's presidential Blue House told reporters late Wednesday.
Abrams said the furlough was necessary because "programmed funds" had run out in the absence of a cost-sharing agreement.
Under the previous deal, South Korea paid about $870 million toward the cost of the U.S. troop presence, but Trump has said he wants a contribution of around $5 billion.
Abrams urged the governments in Seoul and Washington to reach a deal soon.
"These are our employees, our co-workers, our teammates, and we consider them family," he said. "It is an understatement to say these are challenging times, as no one feels the impact more than our furloughed employees."
Jonathan Pollack, a senior nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution, pointed out the irony of the White House requesting assistance from South Korea to combat the
coronavirus even as the Pentagon continues to push for more money from the country.
"It's both a colossal mess and potentially a very dangerous one," he said.
South Korea's left-leaning Hankyoreh newspaper called the threat to the livelihoods of South Korean workers "a shame and a disgrace."
"This unpaid leave, triggered by Trump's unreasonable demands, reminds us once again of how far we are from a fair alliance," it wrote in
an editorial.
14. Let the UN Command Remain a Tool for Korean Peace
A nice response to my previous CFR piece on OPCON transition. I agree with the author and would add that in addition to the value of the UN Command for the maintaining the Armistice (peace) the UN Command will also serve important functions should deterrence fail and the north attacks the South. It will serve as a force provider for the ROK/US Combined Forces Command which is and must remain the single war fighting command on the Korean peninsula in the event of war. The public should know that the UNC will not serve as a "higher HQ" for the ROK/US CFC but instead will respond to requests from the commander by providing the right international forces for specific missions, in specific locations, and specific
durations under the tactical control of the ROK/US CFC. The UNC could very well support the future manpower shortage of the ROK with the declining number of military age males. It will also help garner and sustain international support for defending freedom on the Korean peninsula and if there is a war supporting the ROK in achieving unification as the outcome of the war. And as we all know the UNC provides critical logistic support through the 7 UN designated bases in Japan which will be critical to supporting the ROK/US CFC. So yes I agree with the author that we need to include the role of the UNC in the information campaign to educate the politicians, the press, the pundits, and the publics in both the ROK and US. The maintenance of the Armistice and keep the peace is the first objective but we must also think about what comes next for the UNC and its role on the peninsula.
Excerpt:
Maxwell's five-point communications plan for the OPCON transfer should include an additional prescription: "the UNC will continue to carry out its unique armistice-management responsibilities." Such outreach should be complemented by the addition of South Korean officers to UNC ranks. The invitation has been outstanding for some time, but South Korea has yet to dispatch any personnel. ROK officers joining the UNC would have the two-fold effect of legitimizing the UNC's armistice-management efforts, while dispelling rumors that the UNC is being retooled for backdoor American command of the Korean military.
This post is authored by Ben Sando, foreign policy intern at the National Assembly Research Service in Seoul, South Korea. It is part of a project conducted by the program on U.S.-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, supported by the Smith Richardson Foundation and Korea Foundation. This series of posts addresses the transition of operational control (OPCON) on the Korean Peninsula.
In Colonel (Ret.) David Maxwell's comprehensive
blog post outlining unresolved issues in the transition of operational control (OPCON) on the Korean Peninsula, he remarks that "There is a fundamental lack of understanding of the OPCON transition. Press, pundits, and partisan politicos on both sides of the Pacific are unaware of the history, plan, intent, and necessity of the transition."
Maxwell is right to articulate that the OPCON transition debate is peppered with Korean and American misunderstandings. Maxwell's five-point communications plan to tackle these misunderstanding is well-considered, and I would suggest one additional topic of focus. This would be a deliberate communications effort to settle the disagreement over the role of the United Nations Command (UNC) after the OPCON transition, and to clarify that the UNC will continue its vital armistice-management activities after the OPCON transition occurs.
In 1978, the UNC handed over its operational command authority to the Combined Forces Command (CFC) and became an organization principally charged with the maintenance of the 1953 armistice agreement. The UNC retained the authority to set rules of engagement in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), and
could assume command of South Korean border forces in crisis-management situations, such as North Korean border provocations that are not sufficiently severe to void the 1953 armistice. The UNC has since exercised this authority to de-escalate numerous border provocations, including the 2010 North Korean artillery attack on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong. ROK commanders reportedly
desired to escalate the Yeonpyeong attack through a disproportionate response, but UNC directives, following the UNC's doctrine of proportional reactions to provocations, limited the retaliation of ROK forces and contained the Yeonpyeong skirmish to a one-day crisis.
Underscoring the importance of the UNC, the ROK and U.S. defense ministers
affirmed in the 2018 Security Consultative Meeting that the UNC would remain intact after the OPCON transition. It appears, however, that the U.S. and ROK are not in agreement over the role that the UNC will play after the transition. During a fall 2019 military exercise to test the post-OPCON transition command structure, the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff
reportedly opposed the U.S. assertion that, post-OPCON transition, the UNC would retain its authority to issue directives to ROK forces in situations of border crisis de-escalation. This dispute was picked up by left-wing Korean media outlets, with
Hankyoreh falsely characterizing the American assertion as an effort to "
expand the UNC's mission" after OPCON transition. The dispute also ignited latent Korean concerns that the United States is retooling the UNC to become a backdoor command structure capable of subverting a ROK-led CFC. As the
Korea Herald writes, "the US would use the US-led UNC to maintain its power." The isolation of these reports to left-wing media is indicative of the level of distrust that the Korean left retains for the U.S. military.
Within the Korean defense policy community, there are experts who present legitimate criticisms of the strategic value of the UNC in armistice-management. The UNC,
such experts argue, acts as a muzzle on ROK border forces, eliminating the threat of disproportionate retaliation that could deter the North from engaging in minor provocations. However, other factors might explain the trend in North Korean provocations. One possible explanation begins with the implicit recognition that war between the North and South would almost certainly turn nuclear. Thus, either side can carry out minor provocations against the other without such provocations ever being realistically construed as a signal that the aggressor aims to initiate nuclear war. Combined with the antecedent conditions of geographical adjacency and political payoffs from provocation, minor skirmishes are to be expected. India and Pakistan, which both retain operational control of their armed forces, serve as a good model for comparison. Meanwhile, South Korean defense experts should take heed of the positive strategic benefits of the UNC's de-escalatory role. South Korean leaders can save face in the de-escalation of border provocations by claiming their hands were tied by UNC directives. Without the constraints offered by the UNC, ROK leaders might escalate border conflicts to secure domestic political payoffs, raising the overall risk of war.
Maxwell's five-point communications plan for the OPCON transfer should include an additional prescription: "the UNC will continue to carry out its unique armistice-management responsibilities." Such outreach should be complemented by the addition of South Korean officers to UNC ranks. The invitation has been outstanding for some time, but South Korea has
yet to dispatch any personnel. ROK officers joining the UNC would have the two-fold effect of legitimizing the UNC's armistice-management efforts, while dispelling rumors that the UNC is being retooled for backdoor American command of the Korean military.
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:
"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
