3. Refiners raising prices
Many refineries are public companies that do not have much appetite for posting ongoing losses. To avoid losses, refiners will have to increase gasoline prices.
4. Other geopolitical risks
Internal conflicts in Nigeria (the 14th largest producer of oil in the world), Venezuela (the world's 11th largest producer of crude) and other conflicts across Africa in Bahrain, Libya, Iraq, Nigeria and Yemen could all cause rises in gas prices.
5. The EU may save itself
Deepening financial and economic trouble in Europe would drop demand for oil there. However, if leaders in the region can settle on mechanisms to protect nations with financial problems from default, national budgets will not be cut to extraordinarily low levels -- levels that would otherwise kill both consumer demand and business demand for oil.
6. U.S. economic recovery
Demand for oil-based products across the entire economy will pick up with any recovery.
In the U.S., summer vacation driving has historically boosted demand for gasoline.
8. Supply risk
In December 2011, OPEC members produced nearly 31 million barrels a day, cutting the cartel's spare capacity capability from 3.18 million barrels per day to 2.85 million.
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