"Because arrogance is born in personal vanity, arrogant people are driven without mercy. They can never get enough power to fill the soul's needs or enough respect to overcome the fear that they deserve less than they are getting."
-Lewis B. Smedes
"Remind me to write an article on the compulsive reading of news. The theme will be that most neuroses can be traced to the unhealthy habit of wallowing in the troubles of five billion strangers."
- Robert A. Heinlein
"Foreknowledge cannot be gotten from ghosts and spirits, cannot be had by analogy, cannot be found out by calculation. It must be obtained from people, people who know the conditions of the enemy." - Sun Tzu, The Art of War
1. N.K. leader apologizes to S. Koreans for 'unsavory' shooting case: Cheong Wa Dae
2. The Unrepentant Brutality of the Kim Regime
3. North Korea commits act of brutality
4. Gov't and Military Are in Dereliction of Duty (Korea and the killing of a South Korea)
5. What was S. Korea doing for 34 hours after its civilian was killed by N. Korea?
6. 3 fall Army brigade deployments to Afghanistan, South Korea and Europe announced
7. Fertilizer factory explosion claims eight deaths in S. Pyongan Province
8. N. Korea and China recently signed agreement aimed at easing border tensions
9. Repatriated North Korean Escapee Asks Police to Send Her Back to Prison
10. North Korea Arrests Two for Using Fake Money to Buy Food
11. Moon vows firm response to threats to S. Koreans' lives, safety
12. New defense minister holds first meeting with USFK commander
13. N.K.'s apology shows hotline between Seoul, Pyongyang spy agencies possibly in operation
14. Pyongyang General Hospital: A Bright White Beacon After the Rains
15. Moon's adviser suggests N.K. leader hold summit with Moon and explain about killing
16. For North Korea, UN membership is a key link to larger world
17. What Would Trump Do With North Korea If He Wins a Second Term?
18. North Korea's nuclear fishing lesson
1. N.K. leader apologizes to S. Koreans for 'unsavory' shooting case: Cheong Wa Dae
What military has their soldiers carry blank rounds while on active duty guarding their nation? Firing two blanks and then 10 live rounds?
Notice the admonition in this apology - the South should be helping with the suffering from the coronavirus.
We should not be duped by this "apology." Kim is conducting his usual political warfare with Juche characteristics. Yes it is unusual to receive such a message so quickly. It may be because Kim is facing so many internal problems and he is preparing for future blackmail diplomacy to coerce aid from the South after blaming it for any COVID outbreak in the north (recall the re-defection of the likely north Korean operative who returned to Kaesong who the north said had tested positive for COVID?). The north is likely going to make demands of the South in the near future so this is a necessary step to prepare for that.
So they only burned the material but never recovered the body? Note the letter counters what the north calls the regrettable that the South Korean military would say they burned the body. (I would bet the signal intercepts confirm the burning).
This is in no way a sincere apology. Again this is political warfare. And this action by north Korean soldiers is an indication of the nature of the Kim family regime.
I fear this unusual apology will be misinterpreted as Kim is changing his ways and will actually be used as justification for advancing engagement with the north because Kim has apologized and express sincere regret. The only thing Kim regrets is that he has not yet extorted sufficient concessions from the South. But he will spin (and is spinning) this incident in a way to set up getting such concessions.
(4th LD) N.K. leader apologizes to S. Koreans for 'unsavory' shooting case: Cheong Wa Dae | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with background info in 4th para, unification minister's view in last paras; COMBINES story slugged Moon-NK leader letter; ADDS photo) By Lee Chi-dong
SEOUL, Sept. 25 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has offered an apology to the South Korean people for the killing of a fellow citizen by its military earlier this week, Cheong Wa Dae announced Friday.
In a formal notice sent to the South, the North conveyed Kim's message that he feels "very sorry" for greatly "disappointing" President Moon Jae-in and other South Koreans with the occurrence of the "unsavory" case in its waters, instead of helping them amid their suffering from the new coronavirus, according to Suh Hoon, director of national security at Cheong Wa Dae.
The North was informing the South of the results of its own probe into what happened in the notice sent by the United Front Department (UFD), a Workers' Party organ handling inter-Korean relations.
It is quite unusual for a North Korean leader to apologize formally to South Korea, officials here said.
The North said the "unidentified" man, who crossed the western sea border without authorization, did not respond sincerely to its verbal security checks aboard a floating material about 80 meters away.
Approaching the material, the North's troops shot two blanks, and he was seen as attempting to flee. They then fired more than 10 gunshots at the distance of 40-50 meters under the related rules of engagement for maritime border security, according to the North's account.
After shooting, they searched the floating material but only found plenty of blood, not his body, the North claimed.
They burned the material in accordance with the state emergency guidelines for the prevention of COVID-19, it added.
The North also said its leadership thinks "what should not happen has occurred" and instructed troops to establish a system to record the entire process of maritime border security activities so as not to trigger "minor mistakes or big misunderstandings" during such a crackdown.
The leadership repeatedly emphasized the need for taking necessary measures to prevent such a "regrettable" case from recurring so that inter-Korean "trust and relations of respect" won't fall apart, it added.
The North also expressed regret over the South Korean military's "unilateral" announcement related to the incident the previous day.
The South's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the previous day that the North had set his body on fire.
Meanwhile, Moon and Kim have recently exchanged personal letters, Suh added.
In their correspondence, the two touched on "expectations" for the recovery of Seoul-Pyongyang relations by overcoming the ongoing difficulties from the coronavirus outbreak, Suh who serves as Moon's top security aide, said.
Regarding the incident, Suh stated that the government will look at inter-Korean ties once again and make its best effort to establish the security of the Korean Peninsula and bilateral relations to meet the people's expectations.
Cheong Wa Dae made public the full text of the North's notice in a highly unusual move.
Unification Minister Lee In-young, Seoul's point man on Pyongyang, also noted that the North Korean leader's apology to South Korea is "very exceptional.
"To my knowledge, it's unprecedented for the North to issue (its leader's) position rapidly using the expression 'sorry' twice," Lee said during a National Assembly session.
The North has not yet formally apologized for the killing of a South Korean tourist to Mount Kumgang by its soldier in 2008. It instead expressed its "regret" in a statement issued by a state tourism agency.
In another rare move, Cheong Wa Dae unveiled the full texts of recent personal letters exchanged by Moon and Kim.
Kim expressed hope for the well-being of all South Koreans struggling to overcome difficulties from COVID-19 and recent typhoon damage in his letter to Moon, dated on Sept. 12, Suh told reporters.
It was a reply to Moon's letter to him sent on Sept. 8.
Kim said he thought about the "grave burden" that Moon is shouldering by himself and that he knows Moon's "difficulty, pressure and efforts" to overcome the troubles better than any other person.
"I once again eagerly wish that southern compatriots' precious health and happiness will be kept," Kim wrote. "I sincerely wish for everyone's well-being."
In his letter to Kim, Moon pointed out that both Koreas are going through "big predicaments," from the coronavirus to heavy monsoon rain and typhoon damage.
Moon expressed his appreciation for Kim's "strong commitment" to respecting the lives of people.
The president said the current situation is regrettable in that South and North Korea cannot help each other despite the challenges.
Suh said Cheong Wa Dae made public the full text of the letters at the instruction of Moon.
Cheong Wa Dae, however, stopped short of releasing photos of the letters.
Moon and Kim had their previous known correspondence in March.
Statement from our Executive Director of the Committee on Human RIghts in North Korea on north Korea's brutality. We should not forget that the Kim family regime is the worst human rights abuser in the modern era. And we should not believe the north's rapid "apology" indicates any sincere repentance.
Announcements - The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea
Earlier this week, agents of the Kim regime on a boat, all wearing gas masks, shot dead an unarmed 47-year-old South Korean government official floating helplessly in the water. They burned the body, under the pretext of COVID-19 prevention, reportedly pursuant to orders coming from the top of Korean Workers' Party leadership. There is no other state that has cruelly taken an innocent life and burned the body to "prevent" COVID-19. As UN Commission of Inquiry Chair Michael Kirby stated in a letter addressed to Kim Jong-un, this regime commits crimes against humanity and abuses against its own citizens on a scale unparalleled in the modern world. Without human rights in North Korea, there is no safe place for Koreans living in the North or in the South. North Korean human rights are not solely a North Korean issue. This is a Korean issue, affecting Koreans living in the North and in the South. This is a global issue. Without human rights, there is no peace. Peace devoid of human rights would place all Koreans and many others in grave danger.
North Korea commits act of brutality. September. 25, 2020 07:58. . The South Korean Ministry of National Defense reported on Thursday that an official of the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries who went missing on Monday while on duty aboard an inspection boat in waters off Yeonpyeong island near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the Yellow Sea was shot by North Korean troops and his body was burned later. It has been 12 years since the last killing of a South Korean civilian by North Korea where Park Wang-ja was shot in Mount Kumgang. The new incident's details are rather shocking. "North Korea should take all responsibilities for the incident and investigate thoroughly while heavily punishing those responsible," said the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae at a standing committee meeting of the National Security Council on Thursday.
According to the military authorities, North Korea first discovered the missing official in distress in the following afternoon of the day he went missing and interrogated the details of his drifting. Using equipment on Yeonpyeong island, the authorities observed North Korea's burning of the missing official's body. While North Korea refuses to investigate facts about the incident, the South Korean government should make a strong request for a thorough inquiry to leave zero suspicion.
While North Korea claims that the country has put forward a measure to kill anybody near the border to prevent the spread of COVI-19, it is only an internal policy of the country. The killing of a foreigner - an unarmed civilian, at that - and the brutal act of burning his body are in a direct violation of the Geneva Conventions established for the protection of prisoners and civilians during wartime. This is why the North's despicable provocation cannot be overlooked.
Meanwhile, questions remain regarding why it took two days for the details of the incident to be revealed to the public even though the military authorities reported to Cheong Wa Dae on Tuesday, the same day as the incident. Some criticize that the delay might have been caused in consideration of South Korean President Moon Jae-in's U.N. statement on Wednesday calling for the declaration of an end to the Korean War. If indeed Cheong Wa Dae and the military authorities have tried to keep it quiet to reduce political impact despite knowing what North Korea committed, they should be held accountable.
The ruling party should reflect on itself whether its excessive efforts to please North Korea might have enabled the country to commit such a crime. Even after the North blew up the Inter-Korean Liaison Office in June, the South Korean government has been eager to resume Mount Kumgang tourism and the operation of the Kaesong Industrial Zone. This must be why the North looks down upon South Korea and committed such an act of brutality.
4. Gov't and Military Are in Dereliction of Duty (Korea and the killing of a South Korea)
Questions on this tragic event's timeline. I think despite the regime's apology and, frankly bulls**t explanation (e.g., firing blank rounds??) I am pretty confident their are intelligence intercepts that capture the nKPA describing what really happened in real time. But there are some difficult and important questions for the South Korean military and government.
North Korea murdered and incinerated a South Korean official who had gone missing from a fishery patrol boat near Yeonpyeong Island on the West Sea, the Defense Ministry belatedly announced Thursday. The North Korean sailors did not bother to rescue the exhausted man, who had been adrift overnight, but kept him in the cold water for more than six hours before summarily shooting him, dousing him in oil and setting him ablaze.
Such barbaric brutality would make even some hardened criminals blush. North Korean forces are under shoot-to kill orders for any person or animal approaching within a kilometer of the border, which means that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered the murder a South Korean civilian and destruction of his body. This is the true face of the barbaric regime north of our border.
The ministry informed Cheong Wa Dae of the incident on Tuesday night after observing gunshot and light emanating from the incineration of the corpse, and the presidential office held an emergency meeting late that night. But it then decided to hush up the incident until 11 a.m. on Thursday, even though there had been inquiries from reporters after the victim went missing.
President Moon Jae-in's motive is not difficult to guess. He had a terribly important speech to deliver to a mostly virtual session of the UN General Assembly, where he proposed a peace treaty with North Korea and ending the Korean War. He could not let something as trivial as the senseless slaughter of a South Korean citizen by the North interfere with the festive occasion.
The president videotaped his speech on Sept. 15 and sent it to the UN on Sept. 18, so of course he could not have foreseen the murder. But why did Cheong Wa Dae allow the speech to be aired even when it was fully informed a whole day before the speech was to be broadcast? Could it not have asked the UN to cancel the speech or, if that was too much to bear for the president, to switch the order of speeches and record a fresh one? How hard is that? It is clear that Moon had no intention to do anything about it. When he presided over a ceremony promoting military officers on Wednesday morning, he acted as if nothing had happened and only reiterated his calls for "peace." He clearly no longer has any grasp of reality.
The military also behaved appallingly. The Defense Ministry watched from the sidelines as a South Korean citizen was brutally murdered and incinerated and then lied to the press about it. Then some minor official was wheeled out to threaten dire consequences, two days after it had watched the incident through binoculars. North Korea must be laughing at these men who pose as soldiers but refuse to do anything to protect the life of their citizens. What is the point of having a military at all?
Now the government and military are claiming that the official wanted to defect to North Korea, though the public have only the word of some officers who have proven that they cannot be trusted. But even supposing the poor man had wanted to defect, that makes no difference to their duty to protect him until they can be absolutely sure.
After North Korea blew up the inter-Korean liaison office in the border town of Kaesong earlier this year, Moon said he felt "anger and frustration," but he soon got over it. Now Cheong Wa Dae has warned of terrible consequences for the North, but already some people in the government are saying that the slaughter did not violate an inter-Korean military agreement to reduce tensions in the border area. There is no denying that Moon is in love with the fat Barbarian on the other side. What will he do for him next?
5. What was S. Korea doing for 34 hours after its civilian was killed by N. Korea?
A key question. Obviously this undermine s confidence in the military and the government. It also reinforces the perception the South wants engagement to support peace at all costs. The costs of peace can be catastrophic in blood and treasure if that peace is not built on a foundation of resolute strength and the commitment to national security above political agendas.
What was S. Korea doing for 34 hours after its civilian was killed by N. Korea?
What was S. Korea doing for 34 hours after its civilian was killed by N. Korea?. September. 25, 2020 07:59. by Kyu-Jin Shin [email protected]. An unprecedented incident where North Korean troops shot a South Korean civilian who went missing near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the Yellow Sea and burned his body took place.
The military did not take any action to rescue him during the 34 hours stretching from when he went missing to his death while the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae waited 10 hours after receiving a report about the shooting from the military before reporting to President Moon Jae-in. Moreover, the president emphasized the denuclearization of the North by calling for the declaration of an end to the Korean War during his statement at the U.N. General Assembly's video conference despite the knowledge of the South Korean military and government about the shooting. The incident has clearly revealed the brutality of the North Korean regime and the truths about the North Korea policies, which had been a point of self-praise by the Moon Jae-in administration.
According to the military's report on Thursday, a fishery inspector affiliated with the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries disappeared on Monday morning and was discovered by a vessel of the North Korean fisheries office in the waters near Deusngsan cape in the north of NLL in the Yellow Sea around 3:30 p.m. on Tuesday. At that time, he was wearing a life vest and holding on to a floating matter in distress. The North Korean vessel kept some distance from him and listened to his statement about how he drifted into the North Korean waters. Around 9:40 p.m. on the same day, a North Korean navy boat came and opened fire at him before pouring oil and burning his body, the South Korean military said.
Cheong Wa Dae held on Thursday a standing committee meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) presided by Suh Hoon, Director of National Security Office, and called for the North's investigation, the punishment of the responsible, and apology. "North Korea's killing of a South Korean civilian who was unarmed and did not show any resistance and burning of his body cannot be justified under any circumstance," said Suh Joo-seok, the secretary-general of the NSC, during a briefing on the day. "The North should apologize for such a crime against humanity and take actions to prevent reoccurrences."
Meanwhile, Cheong Wa Dae said that President Moon first received a written intelligence on the missing person at 6:36 p.m. on Tuesday and later received an in-person report on the killing at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, which was 10 hours after 10:30 p.m. on Tuesday when Cheong Wa Dae was briefed on the shooting. Criticism against Cheong Wa Dae's risk management system is being raised as the president did not receive an immediate report about the killing even though a ministerial meeting joined by Chief of Staff to the President Moon Jae-in Noh Young-min, Director of National Security Office Suh Hoon, Director of National Intelligence Service Park Jie-won and others was held around 1 a.m. on Wednesday. "Cheong Wa Dae had tried to keep it quiet and failed to take appropriate actions for over 30 hours between his missing and death by North Korea," said a military source.
6. 3 fall Army brigade deployments to Afghanistan, South Korea and Europe announced
I am waiting for the shoe to drop on Korea. Cancelling the brigade rotation to Korea and bringing home the current rotational briuaged with no replacement would be an October surprise to say that we are reducing forces in Korea because Korea will not pay for the US presence. It would not technically violate the NDAA that says no funds will be appropriated for withdrawal of forces unless the SECEDEF certifies such withdrawal will not harm the national security of the US and its allies. Fortunately I have not heard any discussion of this but for those with a political agenda rather than a national security agenda I could see this idea as one they would consider.
3 fall Army brigade deployments to Afghanistan, South Korea and Europe announced
armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · September 24, 2020
The Department of the Army announced deployments for three brigades rotating this fall to Afghanistan, South Korea and Europe.
The 2nd Infantry Brigade, from 10th Mountain Division out of Fort Drum, New York, will deploy approximately 1,600 personnel to Afghanistan this autumn to support the U.S. commitment to Operation Freedom Sentinel.
The unit is replacing another 10th Mountain unit, the 1st Brigade, as part of a regular rotation of forces to Afghanistan.
Combat involving U.S. forces has trickled off in the country, as the Taliban and the Afghan government have entered into peace talks for the first time.
The 1st Armored Brigade from 3rd Infantry Division out of Fort Stewart, Georgia, will deploy approximately 3,500 personnel this autumn to the Republic of Korea.
The unit is replacing 1st Infantry Division's 2nd Brigade as part of a regular rotation of forces there.
Finally, the 1st Armored Brigade from 1st Cavalry Division out of Fort Hood, Texas, will deploy approximately 3,500 personnel to Europe.
The unit is replacing 3rd Infantry Division's 2nd Armored Brigade and will participate in Atlantic Resolve operations alongside NATO allies and partners in the region.
Atlantic Resolve involves a series of exercises that have grown to span multiple countries including the three Baltic states, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. The mission steadily grew following Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea Peninsula in 2014.
7. Fertilizer factory explosion claims eight deaths in S. Pyongan Province
It is dangerous to work in fertilizer factories anywhere but especially north Korea. And of course fertilizer actress can be dual use.
But note how the Soicalist Workers Paradise of north Korea and the Kim family regime treats its people:
Most of these locals work in the fertilizer plant and have expressed anger about frequent accidents occurring at the factory because they feel they are risking their lives for just a little extra rations. The source said that some are asking themselves whether they need to send their family members into such a dangerous working environment.
The factory workers who were wounded in the explosion have not been able to receive compensation from the state, much to the sympathy of those around them.
"Just because people died doesn't mean that the state will step in to care for their families or provide compensation," the source said, adding, "Those suffering from serious wounds in the hospital won't be able to work when they leave the hospital, and are dreading the future because they will be treated as disabled people even by their families."
Fertilizer factory explosion claims eight deaths in S. Pyongan Province - Daily NK
Factory workers who were wounded in the explosion have not been able to receive compensation from the state
Daily NK has learned from a source in North Korea that a gas tower at the Namhung Youth Chemical Complex, a fertilizer factory in South Pyongan Province, recently exploded, leaving eight dead and another 12 wounded.
According to a source in the province earlier today, the accident occurred after the Anju-based factory introduced "new technology" aimed at increasing fertilizer production. Speaking on condition of anonymity, he told Daily NK that the 12 people who were wounded were sent to a provincial hospital for treatment.
North Korean authorities have long focused on ways to increase the factory's production because it has failed to meet fertilizer production targets each year, the source said.
While scientists and technicians worked to place the new technology into the factory, officials from the country's Central Committee and Ministry of Chemical Industry reportedly visited the plant to monitor these activities.
North Korea's premier, Kim Jae Ryong, conducting an on-the-spot visit to a factory in Pyongyang. / Image: Rodong Shinmun
According to the Rodong Sinmun on June 7, even former premier Kim Jae Ryong visited the factory and emphasized that it was important to quickly "expand the factory's fertilizer production capabilities" and "repair equipment" so that it could provide fertilizer to the country's agricultural sector.
The newspaper also noted that Pak Pong Ju, who manages North Korea's economic activities, visited several production centers in the factory and that he similarly highlighted the need to expand production.
The fertilizer plant ultimately began tests on the new technology amid intense interest from the central government. On Sept. 18, however, a gas tower in the plant exploded, leading to the casualties.
"They had already succeeded in tests conducted in a small testing plant some time ago, and had placed the new technology into the factory, but then this accident happened," the source said.
"An accident investigation team made up of 14 officials from the Central Committee, Cabinet, and Ministry of State Security, along with experts, technical and government officials, and officials from the prosecutor's office have arrived and are conducting an investigation into what caused the accident," he said, adding, "They have not found a scientific reason for the accident yet but believe that it was caused by [the accumulation of] high pressure."
Locals near the factory have expressed disbelief that the factory management went ahead with placing new technology into the factory on the basis of limited experimentation. Some are criticizing the management for not paying enough attention to worker safety.
Most of these locals work in the fertilizer plant and have expressed anger about frequent accidents occurring at the factory because they feel they are risking their lives for just a little extra rations. The source said that some are asking themselves whether they need to send their family members into such a dangerous working environment.
The factory workers who were wounded in the explosion have not been able to receive compensation from the state, much to the sympathy of those around them.
"Just because people died doesn't mean that the state will step in to care for their families or provide compensation," the source said, adding, "Those suffering from serious wounds in the hospital won't be able to work when they leave the hospital, and are dreading the future because they will be treated as disabled people even by their families."
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to [email protected].
8. N. Korea and China recently signed agreement aimed at easing border tensions
Ease tensions but not trade restrictions? Note the subtitle. Failure to re-open the border means the 400+ markets will continue to be severely impacted which will contribute to the widespread suffering of the Korean people in te north.
N. Korea and China recently signed agreement aimed at easing border tensions - Daily NK
There are no signs that North Korea is set to open its border with China anytime soon
North Korea and China recently signed an agreement to help ease tensions along their border following shooting incidents involving North Korean border guards and Chinese nationals, Daily NK has learned.
According to a Chinese diplomatic source familiar with the agreement, the Chinese requested consultations with the North Koreans to "protect their citizens" and an agreement on the "working-level measures" came about at the North Korean embassy in China on Sept. 10.
Based on this agreement, China will raise customs duties three-fold on goods entering the country (from North Korea) if North Korean border guards "indiscriminately" and "recklessly" shoot and kill a Chinese national. The agreement also requires North Korea to compensate a shooting victim with RMB 1,200,000 (around USD 175,922).
On Sept. 11, the Ministry of State Security and General Staff Department ordered the North Korean border patrol to abide by details of the agreement. The order was accompanied by a directive telling the border patrol to "refrain" from shooting at people in China who cross into North Korean territory.
"From this past Spring until last month, North Korean soldiers shot and killed several Chinese near the border but North Korea failed to apologize properly, so the Chinese government proposed [the agreement] as a way to protect their citizens," the source, who requested anonymity for security reasons, told Daily NK.
The source said that the closure of the border because of the COVID-19 pandemic means that North Korea is unable to import many of the things it needs from China. "That's why North Korea had no choice but to acquiesce to China's demands," he added.
CHANGING TACTICS ON THE BORDER
Another source in China who spoke to Daily NK on condition of anonymity recently reported on signs that North Korean border guards seem to be taking a different approach to Chinese who cross the border.
The source said that two Chinese men had brought their cow down to the Yalu River to drink water near Changbai, Jilin Province, on Sept. 21. When the men and the cow moved toward the line demarcating the Chinese border with Yanggang Province, North Korean border guards started to approach them.
Given that the North Korean border patrol had shot and killed a Chinese smuggler in May, the two men were reportedly "tense" because they feared they may be harmed by the border guards.
Despite their fears, the North Korean border guards just threw rocks at the two men while yelling at them to return to Chinese territory; the men took their cow and left the area without incident.
An image showing parts of a recent order handed down by the Ministry of Social Security mentioning (circled in red) that anyone found in the "buffer zone" will be shot. / Image: Daily NK
After returning to their village, the two men reported the incident and the Chinese border patrol's propaganda department posted a notice at villages near the border the same evening.
The notice stated that North Korea and China had "signed an agreement" for the North Korean government to pay a "large amount of compensation" if any Chinese national is wounded or killed by North Korea soldiers on the border. The notice went on to say that it is "unlikely that North Korean soldiers will fire their weapons" but that locals should avoid going near the Yalu River because North Korea has "heightened its state of alert internally."
Daily NK reported earlier this month that North Korea established "buffer zones" along the border with orders to unconditionally shoot anyone who enters the zones.
The mention of North Korea's "heightened state of alert internally" in the Chinese border patrol's notice appears to reflect the establishment of these buffer zones.
Despite the Sino-North Korean agreement to ease tensions on the border, there are no signs that North Korea is set to open its border with China anytime soon.
"North Korea sent a message of congratulations to China for announcing victory over COVID-19, but I understand that officials have been told to avoid trusting China's medical statistics," the Chinese diplomatic source told Daily NK. "It doesn't look like the border lockdown will be loosened before the end of this year."
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to [email protected].
North Korean men clear ice and shovel snow off a road on in Hyangsan county, North Pyongan province, North Korea in a file photo.
AP
A repatriated North Korean escapee who was recently released from a prison camp for health reasons asked police to take her back when she was unable to support herself on the outside, sources in the country told RFA.
The woman, who had been sold in China by human traffickers seven years ago, was caught by Chinese police and repatriated sometime last year. While in detention, she was transported across the country on the back of a truck in the dead of winter and lost her toes to frostbite.
The prison camp released her in June after doctors gave up on finding a way to treat her.
"When she was completely blocked out from making a living, she went to the law enforcement agency and asked to return to prison," a resident of North Hamgyong province, bordering China and Russia in the country's northeast, told RFA Sept. 19.
The woman was back in prison only a month after she was released.
"The woman is known to have suffered severe violence at the hand of her Chinese husband in Shandong province. She could not withstand the violence and tried to flee last fall, but she was arrested by Chinese police and sent back to North Korea because her husband reported her," said the source, who requested anonymity for security reasons.
According to the source, the woman was first held in a detention center across the border from the Chinese city of Dandong in northwestern North Korea.
"She was in a detention center in Sinuiju until winter because the police officer in charge of her registered residence area did not come to take her away. The transport was delayed because electric trains do not run often, and internal combustion trains are too expensive. So, they transported her by a servi-cha," the source said, referring to privately-owned and operated transport trucks.
"She was only wearing a single layer of clothes, so she suffered severe frostbite riding in the cargo compartment of the truck in the freezing weather. When she finally arrived in Puryong county, North Hamgyong province, she was sentenced to five years in prison for illegal border crossing and imprisoned at the No. 9 correctional labor camp," said the source.
The source said she lost all ten of her toes to frostbite.
"The prison camp released her, saying there was no way to treat her, but after returning to her town, she had no way to make a living and no home. She could have died of starvation, and had no way to get medical treatment," said the source.
"The poor woman was first living at a temporary shelter that the local government provided for her and she ate corn donated by local residents for her meals. But when she ran out of corn, she went to look for jobs, but it is of course difficult to work if you can't even walk well," the source said.
The source said it was then that she went to the public security department, asking to be sent back to prison.
Another resident of North Hamgyong, who requested anonymity to speak freely, told RFA that tales of the woman had been circulating among the public.
"The residents are shocked to hear the story of an illegal border crosser who voluntarily wanted to return to prison. Once you're sent there, you may come out dead. How tough is her life that she decided to go back to prison on her own volition?" the second source said.
The second source confirmed that the repatriated escapee lost her toes to frostbite and was released by the prison for health reasons.
"Normally the police collect the cost of transporting a prisoner from relatives, but the transport was delayed until the cold winter because she had no family to pay for her transportation."
Trafficking statistics
North Korean women are "uniquely vulnerable" to sex trafficking in China, according to a 2019 report published by the London-based Korea Future Initiative.
The report said exploitation of North Korean women generates profits of at least $105 million each year.
"Victims are prostituted for as little as 30 Chinese Yuan (U.S. $4), sold as wives for just 1000 Chinese Yuan ($146), and trafficked into cybersex dens for exploitation by a global online audience," the report said.
Trafficking of North Korean women in China was at its peak in the late 1990s, when hundreds of thousands of desperate people fled the country during the 1994-1998 famine that killed millions.
Estimates place the number of North Koreans illegally in China at about 150,000 in 1999 according to a 2019 report published by the Washington-based Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK).
RFA reported in August 2019 that China had begun a crackdown on North Korean refugees, with Chinese authorities repatriating 60 recently arrested refugees held in detention centers in northeastern Liaoning province.
The report said the spike in arrests could have stemmed from increasing North Korea-China cooperation following more than a year of warming relations between Beijing and Pyongyang.
Reported by Jieun Kim for RFA's Korean Service. Translated by Leejin Jun. Written in English by Eugene Whong.
10. North Korea Arrests Two for Using Fake Money to Buy Food
north Korea is arguably the most proficient nation in the world in counterfeiting money (e.g, US one hundred dollar bills). So I guess it follows that it should be good at spotting counterfeits used among the population. But the real story is how much the Korean people are suffering and how desperate they are to survive.
North Korea Arrests Two for Using Fake Money to Buy Food
In this Feb. 6, 2017, file photo, a portrait of late leader Kim Il Sung is seen on North Korean banknotes.
AP
Authorities in North Korea recently arrested two people who were caught using fake money in local markets, turning to crude counterfeiting to cope with worsening economic conditions amid the prolonged coronavirus pandemic, sources in the country told RFA.
The coronavirus outbreak added to the economic squeeze of U.S. and UN sanctions aimed at depriving Pyongyang of cash and resources for its nuclear and missile programs. The closure of the Sino-Korean border in January and the suspension of trade with China has made it harder for North Koreans to rely on the country's nascent market economy to support themselves.
Now with food prices skyrocketing and no way to make money by trading smuggled goods from China, many citizens are resorting to small-time counterfeiting to make ends meet.
The North Korean won has an official exchange rate of about 900 to the U.S. dollar, but it is actually worth much less. The black market exchange rate for the currency is about 8,300 won per dollar.
Sources told RFA's Korean Service that both counterfeiters were faking 5,000 won ($0.60) notes to buy items needed for survival.
The price of a kilogram (2.2 pounds) of rice in North Korea was about 4,500 won ($0.54) on Sept. 2, according to the Seoul-based Daily NK news website.
"Not long ago, a man was caught using fake money at a local marketplace in Songchon county," a resident of South Pyongan province, just north of the capital, told RFA on Monday.
"After receiving reports that counterfeit money was circulating in the market over the past few months, the market manager and a plainclothes police officer patrolled the market every day. They caught the man in the act," said the source, who requested anonymity for security reasons.
The source said that the counterfeiter was in his 30s and was working as a computer printing technician for a local publishing company.
"Unable to make ends meet due to the coronavirus, he resorted to printing 5,000 won notes with a computer and printer normally used to print liquor trademark labels. With the fake money, he bought food and other groceries," the source said.
"So far, the man illegally printed 30 counterfeit bills, 15 of which were found to have been used in restaurants and at the local marketplace. The motive for this man's counterfeiting crime is to make a living for his family," said the source.
The source said that according to North Korean penal codes, counterfeiters who make or use fake money could face more than five years in a correctional labor camp, adding that a five-year stint was likely for the man who passed bills in the Songchon county marketplace.
The second counterfeiter was caught in North Pyongan province, bordering China in the country's northwest.
"A woman in Uiju county was arrested by law enforcement for changing the '1,000' on 1,000 won [$0.12] notes to read '5,000' won," a resident of North Hamgyong, who requested anonymity to speak freely told RFA.
"The woman used this fake value money at nighttime, when it is dark, to buy rice or vegetables from elderly merchants in the markets," the second source said.
The source said the woman had been employed as a bundle merchant-one who either buys smuggled Chinese goods close to the border and sells them farther inland at higher prices, or who smuggles the goods herself.
"Once the coronavirus situation was declared a major emergency and the movement of residents was blocked, she was unable to make money. She was in a desperate situation, unable to buy food, so she used colored pencils and a ballpoint pen to change the value of the 1,000 won notes to 5,000," the second source said.
The second source said the woman, a mother of two, was put in prison for her crime.
"Her children are alone now and wandering the streets. They are now in a situation where they will have to commit crimes to survive," the second source said.
"The authorities continue to crack down on residents having a hard time making a living because of the prolonged coronavirus crisis, even first-time offenders who take to counterfeiting. But if they do nothing to solve the food shortages, those who can't make a living will resort to crime no matter how strong judicial control becomes."
The North Korean government has been known to forge foreign currency on a massive scale. For decades under a sophisticated counterfeiting program, Pyongyang printed almost perfect $100 bills which U.S. officials classified as "supernotes."
Experts believe that North Korea at times printed $25 million in supernotes per year since the 1970s, but after a string of arrests in the mid 2000s crimes involving the notes sharply decreased.
But in 2017, AFP reported that a new supernote had been found by forgery experts in Seoul, who suspected that the notes were North Korean in origin.
Reported by Hyemin Son for RFA's Korean Service. Translated by Leejin Jun. Written in English by Eugene Whong.
11. Moon vows firm response to threats to S. Koreans' lives, safety
I have not been able to visit the new Special Warfare Command at Icheon. It is interesting that President Moon gave his address there.
But this statement begs the question: What actions will he take? "(I) promise that the government and the military will respond resolutely to any act of threatening the people's lives and safety," the president said during the televised speech." He added South Korea can "make, keep and build up peace" by securing a strong defense posture, which nobody can surmount, on its own."
(LEAD) Moon vows firm response to threats to S. Koreans' lives, safety | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with additional remarks, details from 10th para; ADDS photos, byline) By Lee Chi-dong
SEOUL, Sept. 25 (Yonhap) -- President Moon Jae-in assured the South Korean people Friday that his government will deal resolutely with any act that threatens their lives and safety.
He was addressing the 72nd Armed Forces Day ceremony held at the headquarters of the Special Warfare Command in Icheon, Gyeonggi Province, following reports that North Korea fatally shot a South Korean government official and burned his body earlier this week.
Moon stressed that South Korea will further beef up its security and defense posture.
"(I) promise that the government and the military will respond resolutely to any act of threatening the people's lives and safety," the president said during the televised speech.
He added South Korea can "make, keep and build up peace" by securing a strong defense posture, which nobody can surmount, on its own.
He used the word "peace" several times throughout his 15-minute address but made no direct mention of North Korea. He did not talk either about the shocking incident of the South Korean citizen shot dead by the North's border guards around the western sea border.
The previous day, the South's defense authorities said the 47-year-old civil servant belonging to the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries was shot dead Tuesday after crossing the western sea border. The North set his body on fire apparently out of new coronavirus concerns.
On Thursday evening, Moon issued a statement through his Cheong Wa Dae spokesman that it was a "shocking" incident that cannot be tolerated for any reason.
He urged Pyongyang to take "responsible" measures over the "very regrettable" act.
Moon spent much of his speech presenting the future vision for South Korea's military.
"Our military in the future should respond to not only conventional security threats but also non-military ones, including infectious diseases like the coronavirus, terrorism and natural disasters," he stressed.
He called for the realization of a "digital" and "smart" military power in preparation for the advent of a new defense concept and warfare in the fourth industrial revolution era.
Moon cited the military's push for sending recon satellites into orbit by using solid-propellant space rockets, acquiring a 30,000-ton light aircraft carrier and developing the country's indigenous fighter jet.
Under the revised missile development guidelines agreed by the United States, South Korea will be able to develop more powerful and longer-range missiles, he noted.
The government has already submitted next year's defense budget plan to the National Assembly to increase its size by 5.5 percent to 52.9 trillion won (US$45.2 billion) from this year.
Moon showed up at the venue for the annual ceremony aboard a tactical command vehicle that was developed by South Korea, escorted by a multipurpose drone, an unmanned combat vehicle and a K808 wheeled armored personnel carrier.
It is the first time that the government has held the annual Armed Forces Day ceremony at the Army's Special Warfare Command, according to Cheong Wa Dae.
The three previous events took place at the Navy's Second Fleet Command in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, in 2018, the War Memorial of Korea in Seoul in 2018 and an Air Force base in Daegu, 302 kilometers southeast of Seoul, last year.
12. New defense minister holds first meeting with USFK commander
I wish he had met with the ROK/US Combined Forces Command commander as well as the United Nations Command commander. (note my attempt at humor for those who understand the complex command relationships in Korea)
New defense minister holds first meeting with USFK commander | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 25 (Yonhap) -- New Defense Minister Suh Wook held his first meeting with U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) Commander Gen. Robert Abrams on Friday and vowed to beef up cooperation, officials said.
Abrams' visit to the defense ministry headquarters in Seoul came one week after Suh took office and just days after North Korea's brutal killing of a South Korean civil servant who drifted in waters near the Yellow Sea border.
The defense ministry earlier said it has worked closely with the U.S. side regarding the matter.
13. N.K.'s apology shows hotline between Seoul, Pyongyang spy agencies possibly in operation
I will bet there is even international cell phone connectivity. I bet the head of the NIS in the South and the head of the UFD and the RGB in north Korea have exchanged cell phone numbers. The "hotline" concept may be outdated. But it is fun for the press to speculate about it.
N.K.'s apology shows hotline between Seoul, Pyongyang spy agencies possibly in operation | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 25 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's message offering an apology over the killing of a South Korean fisheries official suggests that the hotline between their spy agencies may have been in operation even though Pyongyang vowed to sever all cross-border commnication lines earlier this year.
The North's United Front Department (UFD) conveyed leader Kim Jong-un's message that he feels "very sorry" for greatly "disappointing" President Moon Jae-in and other South Koreans with the occurrence of the "unsavory" case in its waters, according to Cheong Wa Dae.
The message has raised questions about which communication lines remain open between the two sides after the North vowed to cut off all such hotlines in June, raising the possibility that the hotline between their spy agencies may have still been functioning.
In June, North Korea cut other phone lines with the South, including their official liaison and military lines, in anger over anti-Pyongyang leaflets sent across the border by activists from the South.
At that time, the North cited the inter-Korean joint liaison office's line, the militaries' East and West seas communication lines, the inter-Korean trial communication line and their leaders' hotline but made no mention about the hotline between South Korea's National Intelligence Service and the North's UFD.
The hotline between the two spy agencies was established following the first-ever inter-Korean summit between then-President Kim Dae-jung and late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in 2000.
The hotline was not used when relations between Seoul and Pyongyang remained sour but was restored in 2018 amid a reconciliatory mood and a historic summit between President Moon and leader Kim Jong-un in April.
14. Pyongyang General Hospital: A Bright White Beacon After the Rains
If and when complete will the regime begin to announce that it has a coronavirus outbreak?
Pyongyang General Hospital: A Bright White Beacon After the Rains | 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
38north.org · by Samantha J. Pitz · September 24, 2020
Recent commercial satellite imagery shows that work on the exterior of the Pyongyang General Hospital is in its final phase. Despite multiple typhoons over the past few weeks, construction has continued uninterrupted as workers race to meet Kim Jong Un's goal of finishing the hospital by October 10, the 75th anniversary of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK). However, while the deadline looms just weeks away, the completion of the hospital's interior remains in question.
Exterior Improvements
Over the past two months, North Korea has been hit with heavy rains and back-to-back typhoons. However, despite these storms, the new buildings show no indications of damage. While the rains may have caused some minor delays, construction has continued at a steady pace.
Since August 8, there has been extensive work completed on the outer walls and roof as evidenced by the building's new, bright-white appearance. Moreover, North Korean media has featured hospital improvements in recent weeks. On September 13, for instance, Rodong Sinmunreported tile-setting efforts for the outer walls and published ground-level images of various projects underway. KCNA coverage also highlighted progress on the hospital's façade, including window frames, glazing and painting.
The entrance hall section of the building appears to be nearing external completion, and the helipad, located on the roof of the building's center structure, is being paved and is on track to be usable in the near future. The entire structure now closely resembles KCTV's rendering of the site.
Lingering Questions
An August 27 KCNAreport discussed North Korea's efforts to prepare for the operation of the hospital, including recruitment of medical workers, scientists, and trained technicians, as well as the production of "various kinds of equipment, medicines and supplies." However, there are no published pictures showing the status of the hospital's interior, raising serious questions about how the construction as a whole will fare against the fast-approaching October deadline.
Figure 1. Overview of Pyongyang General Hospital construction, August 8 to September 17.
Figure 2. Rodong Sinmun coverage of external tile work.
(Source: Rodong Sinmun)
Figure 3. KCTV rendering of the hospital.
(Source: KCTV via Martyn Williams)
15. Moon's adviser suggests N.K. leader hold summit with Moon and explain about killing
Only Moon Chung-in could try to spin the north's brutal act (as well as its previous demolition of the liaison office) as a way to create a summit opportunity. But I doubt the north would come to a summit and "explain" its actions to President Moon.
Moon's adviser suggests N.K. leader hold summit with Moon and explain about killing | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Sept. 25 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un should hold another summit with President Moon Jae-in and explain in person about the killing of a South Korean fisheries official, a special security adviser to Moon said Friday.
Moon Chung-in, a scholar who serves as the outside presidential adviser, made the case during a seminar after the North's leader apologized over the killing and said he feels very sorry for disappointing him and South Koreans.
"The leaders of South and North Korea should meet, and Kim must explain the situation himself regarding this incident and also the blowing up of the joint liaison office," the adviser said during the seminar co-hosted by the unification ministry and the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation.
He was referring to the North's blowing up of an inter-Korean liaison office building in June in anger over anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets that activists in the South fly across the border. At the time, the North also cut off all communication with the South.
Friday's message from the North, however, shows that cross-border communication has been restored, he said.
The adviser also said that the leaders of the South and the North should hold talks before the November U.S. presidential election, resolve the nuclear issues and build a peace regime.
16. For North Korea, UN membership is a key link to larger world
BY FOSTER KLUG ASSOCIATED PRESS
Hermit Kingdom? Not quite.
To pay close attention to North Korean diplomacy is to notice the many ways it upends the stereotype of the isolated, nuclear-armed wildcard of Northeast Asia.
Yes, the country's propaganda services are prone to rhetoric meant to convey a sense of towering fury, mostly for domestic consumption. But before the coronavirus outbreak sealed its borders, North Korea's state media reported on a steady stream of select foreign diplomats, academics, journalists and delegations trooping up to the capital, Pyongyang.
Along with scattered embassies throughout the world, the North also has a permanent mission at the United Nations in New York, where one of its diplomats will dutifully, if virtually, join other world leaders speaking at the annual U.N. General Assembly.
The United Nations makes a point of welcoming all nations, regardless of political persuasion. But in many ways, there's a love-hate relationship between the North and the U.N. And it raises a lingering question: What, exactly, does North Korea get out of membership in the United Nations?
On the one hand, the world body, with its jumble of nations - big and small, rich and poor, powerful and weak - gives North Korea, which is formally known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, or DPRK, a rare and highly visible platform from which to respond to the criticism it faces. Most of that comes from what it considers the world's leading bully - the United States - and its allies.
But the United Nations also generates a fair share of that criticism. It puts the North's diplomats regularly on the defensive as they battle a stream of official reports, investigations and motions that point out the North's abysmal human rights record, its decades-long, coffers-draining pursuit of nuclear-tipped long-range missiles and other charges of infamy.
One important thing the North gets from the U.N.: a direct point of contact with the 192 other member nations, including a host of countries that would be loath to send their diplomats to pay homage in Pyongyang - the United States pre-eminent among them. The two nations don't have formal diplomatic ties, and Washington relies on Sweden as its consular proxy in Pyongyang.
This means the North's U.N. mission in New York is something of a substitute for an official embassy in Washington. When one side needs quick contact with the other, they often use the so-called "New York channel" at the United Nations.
A good example of the importance of the "New York channel" came as the two sides were working out details of the three extraordinary summits between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un in 2018 and 2019.
With the United Nations, "North Korea gets an excellent venue to work bilateral conversations with every country in the world without having to deploy diplomats in member capitals (at great expense), or have them travel to Pyongyang," said John Bolton, who has served as both the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under George W. Bush and as National Security Adviser under Donald Trump.
"The criticisms of North Korea will come anyway, and having a U.N. mission gives the DPRK proximity to media markets and universities in order to respond," Bolton said in an email. He added: "The opportunities for DPRK intell gathering go without saying."
The usefulness of the United Nations for the North is perhaps most obvious during times of high tension.
In 2017, for instance, when animosity and back-and-forth threats between Trump and Kim had many fearing the possibility of war, North Korean officials used the media at the U.N. to repeatedly respond to Trump, holding several press conferences and reaching out directly to reporters with statements.
It's true that quite a lot of what comes out of the U.N. is not to the North's liking, and its diplomats have stormed out of gatherings critical of the country's human rights, considered among the world's worst. But then they've also used the body to amplify their side of things.
Of course, North Korea would have more vibrant and substantial diplomacy with other U.N. member states if it abandoned its pursuit of a banned nuclear weapons program, according to analyst Chung Eunsook at the private Sejong Institute near Seoul.
"When North Korea becomes a non-nuclear state and opens itself up, it can better engage in multilateral diplomacy as a genuine member of the international community," Chung said.
Part of the North's approach to diplomacy is the result of its turbulent history, and the outsized role the United States and the United Nations play in it.
North Korea was born when the Korean Peninsula was liberated from Japanese colonialism at the end of World War II, only to be forcibly divided into a Soviet-backed north and U.S.-supported south. Three years later, North Korea and South Korea became nations. Two years after that, in 1950, North Korea sneak-attacked the South to start the bloody three-year Korean War. That drew in China on the North's side and the United States and a host of other nations fighting under the U.N. flag on the South's.
That war has never technically ended, and the line between the North and South is the most heavily armed border in the world.
These days, aside from the North's operations at the U.N., there's little reason to expect the kind of diplomacy that came in 2018, with Kim Jong Un meeting with leaders from the United States, Russia, China, Vietnam and South Korea.
Kim is facing domestic crises on several fronts: a crumbling economy battered by unrelenting sanctions; a ragged infrastructure that's been pummeled by a string of typhoons; and the COVID pandemic, which has caused North Korea to seal its borders even with China, its economic lifeline.
Still, the U.N. speech at the General Assembly next week will be an opportunity for the North to take to the world stage and express its own vision of nationhood - the storyline of a proud, beset people who have been forced to embrace nuclear weapons to survive against unrelenting hostility from the United States, South Korea and their allies.
More generally, the speech will be "an attempt to win favorable international opinion," said Choi Kang, vice president of Seoul's Asan Institute for Policy Studies. And that ability to reach out and be heard by global hearts and minds - in a way as rare as it is direct - may, when it comes to North Korea's U.N. membership, be the biggest benefit of all.
17. What Would Trump Do With North Korea If He Wins a Second Term?
Good question. But what I want to know is what Kim Jong-un will do if he is elected for a 2d term or if Biden wins.
What Would Trump Do With North Korea If He Wins a Second Term?
Trump will likely continue his personal brand of diplomacy and Kim will want to keep Pyongyang relevant to American concerns.
The title's question is revealing. It is not something previously asked of prospective second term presidents. Usually we have a proven track record. If we do not know, it is not likely our allies know.
We do know a stated position. According to promiseskept.com, President Trump is putting maximum pressure on North Korea to denuclearize. "Final, fully verified denuclearization" (FFVD) is the stated goal. It is designed to be different than the last administration's "complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization.
FFVD is not much discussed lately, as North Korea has been quiet. As with previous administrations, imposing sanctions, ranging from "smart" to "maximum pressure," are options of last resort, more effective politically than objectively. Sanctions emerge at the end of a familiar sequence. North Korean provocations beget martial statements and activities such as "fire and fury." These give way in turn to negotiations and agreements, followed by North Korean equivocation and cheating. Outrage follows and we impose sanctions, always with the promise that this time they will work. We describe our sanctions in ferocious terms like "crippling" and "maximum pressure." Yet North Korea soldiers on. The cycle repeats with every new U.S. administration.
We may start the cycle again on or about the October 10th. This year's date marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Central Organizing Committee of the Communist Party of North Korea. While our sanctions have had some effect, crippling the North Korean economy-formal or informal-is not among them. Weapons development programs were not much bothered either. North Korean parade practices indicate a star role for ballistic missiles and launchers in the anniversary celebration.
The initiative lies with Kim Jong-un. He may be satisfied with a parade sure to be envied in the White House. Parading new weapons explicitly challenges the power of our sanctions. Kim may choose to be more provocative and launch missiles. Short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan will gain attention, but we stated that short-range missiles don't bother us much. A long-range missile launch, potentially demonstrating a new mastery of reentry capability, would rubbish Kim's purported withdrawal of this threat. We know Kim has many options. Guessing his views, or trying to discern his internal challenges, is nearly impossible. We do know that recent changes to roles and responsibilities within his government were made. The significance of those adjustments has yet to emerge. But Kim will be eager to demonstrate his continued power.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump questions the value of our forward presence in South Korea and Japan. He made demands for a four-fold increase of host nation support payments a significant part-even the core-of our alliance policy. Therefore, provocations limited to South Korea or Japan will be unlikely to generate much of a U.S. response.
Another "known" component is our personalized policy. Kim will, at a minimum, seek direct contact and meetings with the U.S. president. Public praise will be demanded. Mr. Trump will be sure to protect his role as the only one able to fix a crisis with North Korea. Any step back from this summitry will be a step down in Kim's perceived power, leading to potentially deadly consequences for Kim from ambitious members of his inner circle. This is a failing of autocratic governments everywhere: leaders exit only via coup or coffin.
The North Korean policy of a newly empowered second-term President Trump must be one that keeps him at the forefront. It is likely to include secretive bi-lateral meetings as before, excluding our allies, but with much publicity and posturing. More unforced concessions are likely on our part. Missile and warhead development by North Korea, and their massive conventional firepower in the Kaesong Heights overlooking Seoul, will continue. The danger, of course, is an unexpected turn that tips us into active conflict. Gavrilo Princip wanted to kill an archduke, not start World War I, but he put the match to the dry tinder.
Wallace C. Gregson, Jr. is Senior Director for China and the Pacific at the Center for the National Interest (CFTNI) and a former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs. He retired from the United States Marine Corps at the rank of Lieutenant General and previously served as Commander of Marine Corps Forces, Pacific, Commanding General of Fleet Marine Force, Pacific, and Commander of Marine Corps Bases, Pacific.
Image: Reuters.
18. North Korea's nuclear fishing lesson
An interesting assessment. I disagree with the characterization of being erratic. I think the military was acting as it was trained and within its orders. It may seem erratic to us but I think it is an indication of the mindset that has been instilled in the military. But does that mean Kim is going to launch an ICBM with a nuclear warhead at the US? No one can know for sure which is why we must never assume the enemy will not attack but make ourselves invincible (Sun Tzu). Quote: "Whatever the human tragedy here, the real takeaway is what this incident tells us about North Korea's military functioning. I would suggest that it tells us two things: The North Korean military command and control chain is prone to erratic, impulse-driven decisions, and the natural impulse is aggression. Hence why North Korea cannot be allowed to possess both nuclear weapons and the ballistic-missile means to fire those weapons at the United States."
This week's killing and subsequent immolation of a South Korean civilian by North Korean soldiers has sparked outrage. But the incident also serves as a reminder that Pyongyang is incapable of being trusted with nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The 47-year-old civilian was reported missing on Monday after his fishing vessel was operating in the Yellow Sea near the North Korean maritime border, according to South Korean officials. Media reports suggest that Seoul believes the civilian wanted to defect. It is presumed that he jumped into the water with a life jacket, hoping to be picked up by a North Korean patrol. Unfortunately for the man, when he was discovered by a patrol boat, the soldiers donned gas masks and interrogated him as he floated in the water. Learning from intercepted North Korean military communications, South Korea says that the man is believed to have then been shot dead on higher orders and his body set on fire. The execution was apparently carried out in furtherance of Kim Jong Un's strict quarantine orders in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
Whatever the human tragedy here, the real takeaway is what this incident tells us about North Korea's military functioning. I would suggest that it tells us two things: The North Korean military command and control chain is prone to erratic, impulse-driven decisions, and the natural impulse is aggression. Hence why North Korea cannot be allowed to possess both nuclear weapons and the ballistic-missile means to fire those weapons at the United States.
The civilian in question posed no threat to Kim's regime. Yes, the coronavirus concern takes on added exigency in North Korea in light of the weak immune systems that define that undernourished population. Still, the North Koreans could easily have kept their gas masks on and then contained the civilian ashore. That they instead sought orders as to what to do and were apparently quite quickly told to kill the man and set him aflame is striking. It suggests that the command chain, for what would obviously be a national-level political concern, did not reach senior ranks. What seems most likely is that the unit commanding officer ashore or area commander for the unit the patrol boat is assigned to ordered the execution. He presumably did not order the prisoner detained in fear that doing so would breach Kim's directive against quarantine breaches. While South Korean President Moon Jae-in's appeasement-obsessed government is playing down the incident, what if it had reacted with fury?
Consider another hypothetical situation in light of these events. Let's assume we're 15 months in the future. North Korea has conducted new intercontinental ballistic missile and satellite reentry tests, which show that it has established a baseline nuclear strike competency against the U.S. Tensions between the U.S. and North Korea are now at a fever pitch. In this context, a North Korean ballistic missile commander hears a rumor that the U.S. has launched strikes across the demilitarized zone. He then receives a garbled communication order. He has previously been told by Workers' Party propagandists that the moment the U.S. launches an attack on North Korea will be the moment he is ordered to destroy it. The situation is confused, and his communications aren't working. The commander decides to launch his missile against the U.S. without explicit command approval. What follows? Perhaps the missile is shot down by U.S. forces, and nuclear war is averted. Perhaps not.
Near reflexively killing a man as he floated harmlessly, North Korea has shown it cannot be allowed to possess both nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them against America.
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:
"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
