A summary of drought conditions based on the
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
Drought Assessment Webinar on 
December 12, 2017
 

Auburn University Water Resources Center and the 

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
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The majority of the ACF Basin is currently under dry conditions, according to the most current US Drought Monitor (as of 12/12/2017).    

Our next briefing will be Tuesday, January 9, 2017, 1 pm ET. 

Current Drought Status
 
 
The south of the ACF is currently under abnormal and moderate drought conditions, according to the most current US Drought Monitor (as of 12/12/2017). 
Percent of normal precipitation over the past 60 days

        
Precipitation deficits continue for the lower ACF with less than 50% normal over the last 60 days. This report does not include precipitation percentages from the previous week 
Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook
 

According to the most recent NOAA 3-month Precipitation Probability Outlook, probability of precipitation in the southeastern U.S. is projected to be below-normal for the next three months with drier conditions for the lower Alabama, Georgia, and upper Florida. Drier conditions are consistent with la Niña impacts.  
        
        
Realtime Streamflow
                
      
Realtime streamflows in the ACF basin continue to be mostly in the normal range as a result of precipitation from the previous week.  ( http://waterwatch.usgs.gov ). 
 
Flint River at Albany Streamflow
   

Southwest of the ACF basin is presenting below-normal streamflows. Flint River at Albany is in the  below-normal range, with similar levels at Chattahoochee, Griffin and Carsonville .
(for more info:  http://waterwatch.usgs.gov ).

Groundwater Conditions

                 Previous Brief:                                 Current Brief:
       
    
     
 
Groundwater conditions range from normal to much-below-normal in the ACF Basin. Wells in Dougherty and Miller counties are in the below-normal range ( http://waterwatch.usgs.gov ).

 


One Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forcast

 
The 1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow forecast from the Southeast River Forecast Center predicts below-normal flows within across the entire basin.


Lake Lanier Water Level


Lake Lanier level has held relatively steady and is currently in Zone 2. The forecast indicate levels will decline in the next four weeks. 


ACF Basin Composite Conservation and Flood Storage


The ACF System Conservation Storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 1 (orange line) over the next weeks.
 
Drought Assessment Webinar Summary
 
*Moderate drought conditions are developing in the lower ACF basin, with abnormally dry   conditions across the rest of the basin.

*For November the reports of precipitation were less than an inch over the lower ACF  basin 

*Widespread 1.5 - 3.0 inches of rain during the last week (some of it frozen)

*La Nina in place in the Pacific with a 75% chance or greater to continue

*La Nina favors warm and dry fall

*Models and CPC forecast favoring a warm and dry fall

*Some uncertainty still remains for much of the ACF basin

*Most of the real-time streamflow in the ACF basin remain in the normal range.

*28-day average streamflow at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia, and Chestatee River at Dahlonega are currently in below normal range.

*28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are currently in the much below normal range.

*28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the below normal range.

*Groundwater levels range from normal to low across the ACF Basin.

* 1 month and 3 month streamflow forecast are currently below normal 

* West Point reservoir elevations are  currently at guide curve.

* Walter F. George reservoir elevations are currently above guide curve.

*Buford reservoir elevations remains in Zone 2 and is forecasted to decline slightly over the next few weeks.

*The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.

Acknowledgments and Resources:
  • David Zierden, FSU
  • Paul Ankcorn, USGS
  • Jeff Dobur, SERFC
  • Cynthia Donald, US ACE
Summary prepared by Sandra Guzmán, Auburn University  
 
General drought information

General climate and El Niño information

Streamflow monitoring & forecasting
 

Groundwater monitoring

The complete set of briefing slides from this briefing can be found at: http://drought.gov/drought/content/regional-programs/regional-drought-webinars    

Additional information can be found at the Southeast River Forecast Center's Water Resources Outlook:  
  
Experimental Long-Range River Flood Risk