Connecting the Dots: Emerging Migration Trends and Policy Questions in North and Central America,

Migration Policy Institute, March 7, 2018, 13 pp.

Authors: Claudia Masferrer et al

The authors of this paper take a sweeping look at the entire North American "migration corridor," consisting of Canada, the United States, Mexico, and the "Northern Triangle" countries of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. They note that patterns of migration are much more complex and multi-directional than they were in the past, when south-north migration was the dominant pattern. For example, approximately 1 million U.S.-born persons moved to Mexico during the 2010-2015 period, made up largely of retirees and children of persons deported from the U.S. These children will have the right to reemigrate to the U.S. later in life. Moreover, with a declining birth rate, Mexico is quickly becoming a country of immigration, not just emigration. Pressures to migrate northward have lessened, and will continue to lessen, as a result of the "demographic convergence" occurring in the entire region. By 2050, all six countries will have fertility rates below the replacement level required to sustain population growth. At the same time, life expectancy will increase, creating a larger cohort of older people. As the elderly population increases, there will be a growing need for elder care workers, but without the same supply of surplus workers available in the past. The authors believe that policy makers are not engaged in "clear-headed thinking about how to leverage migration to address coming needs."

In response to the growing climate crisis, which may lead to the disappearance of some island nations, paper argues for limitations on a government's right to exclude people from its territory

While acknowledging the political challenges involved in convincing others of her point of view, the author of this essay argues that climate change is creating a strong rationale to limit the state's right to exclude certain people from crossing its borders. She sees an analogy with private property owners whose right to exclude others from entering their property is limited by the state. Indeed, there are many more restrictions on the right of private property than on the prerogatives of the state. The courts, for example, have ruled that individuals can legally "trespass" on someone else's land when in imminent danger; owners of public accommodations such as inns, stores, or restaurants, are barred from discriminating based on race, religion or national origin; and states may expropriate property through eminent domain to achieve a valid public purpose. In light of the climate crisis slowly engulfing the world, including the probable disappearance of several island nations, governments "might be better protected against threats to their national security by creating more legal avenues of immigration" in order to "provide an orderly safety valve for people to leave fragile states that lack the resources to adapt to climate change."