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BAM MARKET WRAP
JULY 1, 2016
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BREXIT SMEXIT
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WHERE WE HAVE BEEN 
 
This time last week, the markets were reeling due to Britain's vote to leave the European Union.  The resulting 2-day collapse left the markets panicked and down 5-7%.  What a difference a week makes.  Central bank assurances from across the world combined with the realization that any changes due to Britain's exit from the EU would take months and years to complete, led the markets higher.  One week later and we are just about where we started.  However, uncertainties remain and Britain's referendum could easily lead to other EU members following suit.  Italeave, Portugo, and Spout are all potential acronyms over the coming months.   It should be noted that defensive groups have led the rebound and interest rates have continued to plummet leading some to question the veracity of the now 4-day rally.  


 
WHERE WE ARE HEADED 
 
The market sell-off and subsequent rally leaves us near the upper part of the range that has dominated these markets.  Volatility should continue over the coming months as news out of the EU dominates world markets.  With the increased uncertainty, it has become increasingly unlikely that the Fed will raise rates in 2016 and perhaps not even until mid 2017 or later.  The continued favorable monetary policy (from the US and others) could fuel another leg up in the markets.  We have our concerns on how this grand monetary policy will end but for now, at least, the markets are stabilized.  To state the obvious, the trading range that has bound these markets over the last couple of years remains in play and until a break-out or break-down occurs, investors would be wise to hold the course and wait to see which direction the indices break.

HOW WE ARE DOING

Our portfolios were stopped out of our small position in commodities but otherwise remain intact.  Our holdings managed the Brexit drawdown very well and have recovered what little that was lost.  We will continue to make modest changes in our holdings as we respond to changing market conditions and wait for the next big market move.    

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Tidbits
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CONCENTRATED - Just 10 companies in the S&P 500, i.e., 10 of 500 or just 2% of the firms, produced 28% of the net income of all 500 firms.  Just 28 companies in the S&P 500, i.e., 28 of 500 or just 5.6% of the firms, produced 50% of the net income of all 500 firms (source: S&P Global Market Intelligence).
 
ALMOST HALF FROM FOREIGN BUYERS - 46.3% of the revenue generated by companies in the S&P 500 is produced from sales to consumers outside the United States.  Just 5.7% of the revenue generated by companies in the S&P 500 is produced from sales to European consumers (source: S&P Dow Jones Indices).
 
CLOSE TO HOME - US companies exported $517 billion of goods and services to buyers in Canada and Mexico in 2015, +18% more than the $437 billion they exported to buyers in Europe and China combined (source: Commerce Department). 
 
DISCRETIONARY VS. MANDATORY - Over the next decade (fiscal years 2017-2026), estimated discretionary spending by the US government will total $13 trillion, an amount that is dwarfed by the government's $33 trillion of projected mandatory spending (source: Office of Management and Budget).
 

      
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On a personal note, it has been hot!  I don't remember a June as oppressive as the past several weeks.  Daughter, Emily, and fiancée Jake purchased a house and Kelly and I have been busy helping them paint, rip up floors, install lights, clean, and paint some more.  They are very excited and Emily will move in the house in a couple of weeks with Jake joining her after their upcoming wedding.  It is a fun process and we are excited to see them start a new chapter in their life together.   
 
Kelly and I have been watching the Legends and Lies series on Fox that details some of the history of our nation's independence.  It is truly remarkable that such a rabble group of patriots gathered together to take on the world's most powerful government and against such unseemly odds won our independence.  What a brave group of men and women.  We celebrate them this 4th of July and hope that you and your family have a fun, safe and grateful 4th.  
 



 Sam and Bo

 


 
 
 
Your financial partner for twenty years and counting because managing your money never gets old.
 

 

       
We continue to make posts to our blog throughout the week so check it regularly if you want to see our thoughts.  You can access it by following the link below.  


 

THE GREATEST COMPLIMENT

In these uncertain times, a trusted financial adviser is more important than ever.  Whatever comes over the upcoming months and quarters, the markets are certain to have lots of volatility and wild swings.  Europe, the US economy and dysfunction in Washington, and continued trouble in Iran and the Middle East to name just a few.  If you have family, friends and neighbors that may benefit from our services, would you please forward this email and/or provide our contact information to them.  We purposefully do not spend time marketing our services so that we can devote all of our resources to managing your assets.  Thank you to all who have provided us referrals - it truly is the greatest compliment you can give us.      



 
BAM MARKET WRAP EXTENDED
EDITION
 
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Remember to visit our blog for market comments and observations in between newsletters.  We try to provide a few comments in between newsletters and certainly when there is a particularly interesting market day.  You can access it by clicking here. 

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Sam Bills - (865) 525-1329

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Bo Bills - (615) 371-5928

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Published by Sam C. Bills, Jr.  Copyright © 2008 Bills Asset Management.  All rights reserved.

BAM Market Wrap is produced and distributed regularly via email by Sam C. Bills, Jr. of Bills Asset Management  3001 Flagstone Drive, Franklin, TN 37069 Phone (615) 371-5928 Fax (615) 250-4903 - www.Billsasset.com

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