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New Poll - Chabot Locked in Tight Race
CA31 - San Bernardino
California's 31st Congressional District is where the December 2nd terrorist attack took place. The seat was previously held by a Republican. Voters in CA31 are traditionally more conservative voters along the coast. San Bernardino is the largest city in the district where Chabot has a distinct advantage as a counter terrorism military officer and retired law enforcement officer.
Data shows California's 31st Congressional District remains extremely competitive. Democrats lead the generic ballot by two points and incumbent Pete Aguilar leads the challenger Paul Chabot, Counter Terrorism Military Officer, by just three points. These numbers reflect the poor performance of Donald Trump at the top of the ticket and the race can tighten even further within the next two weeks.
"This race remains extremely competitive and can be flipped in Chabot's favor," said John Thomas, the campaign's Chief Strategist. "Bottom line: despite Trump not doing well, Chabot has not been knocked out of the race as voters believe Aguilar has failed them on national security and the economy, two of Chabot's strongest areas."
The poll indicates that Pete Aguilar, the sitting freshman incumbent, has an abnormally low favorability rating among voters across all categories and the Chabot camp and supporters still have time to define Aguilar as an ineffective leader that needs to be replaced.
Survey conducted October 21 through October 23, 2016. 1,198 likely 2016 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey-weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2016 General Election. The Margin of Error is +/- 2.98% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding.