The Marrakech meeting's focus on pre-2020 action is also reflected in a new report
"Setting the Path to 1.5°C"
, to be launched by a diverse coalition of civil society groups who made a splash last year in Paris with their
analysis of countries' post-2020 pledges,
which highlighted how developing countries are as a whole much closer to taking on their fair share of the collective effort than the developed countries. South Africa's Ambassador Diseko brought the findings of that report into the negotiating sessions of the Paris Agreement, after previously
likening imbalance in the negotiations to apartheid
- similar dramas could ensue in Marrakech if countries perceive the principle of equity is being undermined.
Dealing with climate reality
In Marrakech, countries will discuss the 2016 review of the "loss and damage" mechanism-which develops policy frameworks to help communities deal with a variety of climate change impacts-with developing countries laying down a moral imperative for developed countries to provide the necessary finance. Though
135 million people are at risk of displacement
due to land degradation and
tens of millions risk being impoverished
as their livelihoods are threatened, climate change institutions which would help-like the loss and damage mechanism and its newly established displacement task force-remain under-resourced and
funding for adaptation remains inadequate
Anticipating climate change to exacerbate displacement around the world, civil society groups meeting in Marrakech will mount a call for governments to address the gaps in legal protection for "climate migrants."
Supporting the energy transformation
Finance roadmap to 2020
A major conflict among countries is likely to arise in Morocco over finance after developed conutries released a "
" to the $100 billion per year which they have committed to find by 2020.
civil society groups
have already severely criticised the roadmap for "double counting" existing aid flows and exaggerating of the rate at which public money can leverage private funds. Concerns about the new "roadmap" include that it provides no scope for increased financing from developed countries and multilateral financial institutions over the pledges made in Paris. With the costs of
developing countries' Paris pledges expected to
exceed $4 trillion
, these criticisms will have to be addressed if countries are t
implement the Agreement successfully.
The way forward
There are likely to be "process fights" as countries meet in various formations over the two weeks. The APA will meet as a single "contact group" three times, with informal talks on each substantive agenda item running in two parallel sessions. Meanwhile discussions under the subsidiary bodies will happen at the same time. The first CMA will open on November 15th with many ministers and some Heads of State expected to attend.
Many countries are concerned that the CMA should not be the body to decide on its own rules-as only 87 of 197 countries have ratified the Paris Agreement, and are therefore not able to actively participate in the CMA. If these concerns are not allayed then difficulties will arise.
The question of who can and can't take part in talks about how to implement the Paris Agreement also has the potential to create further frictions after the May session in Bonn saw civil society groups call for the UNFCCC to "kick out big polluters" due to their conflict of interest, resulting in a
heated debate between countries
Although it will not match the high-drama of Paris, the Marrakech meeting will nevertheless see some challenging questions raised over how to fairly increase pre-2020 ambition, as well as how to ensure the $100 billion is really flowing to developing countries for projects that cut emissions and that help communities deal with climate change impacts.