Drought Early Warning Update
July 7, 2020

Drought Early Warning Update and Webinar for the North Central U.S.
Drought Conditions Likely to Worsen: Hot and Dry Forecast
Potential Impacts in the Missouri River Basin and Midwest
This Drought Early Warning Update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the North Central U.S. based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future Drought Early Warning Updates as conditions evolve.

This covers the following states in the North Central U.S.: Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
A summary of the Drought Early Warning Update is provided below.

Register here   for the next North Central U.S. Climate and Drought Summary and Outlook webinar on Thursday, July 16, 1:00 pm CT.
Key Points
  • Drought conditions persist across western portions of the central U.S. (Colorado, western Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming).

  • Due to recent above-normal temperatures and drier-than-normal conditions, other areas have experienced a decrease in soil moisture. With similar conditions likely to persist throughout July, drought will likely worsen or develop in other portions of the region (areas to watch: Illinois, Indiana, parts of Iowa, eastern and northern Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, southern Nebraska, and Ohio).

  • Daytime temperatures exceeding 85°F coupled with warm overnight temperatures above 70°F increase stress significantly on humans, crops, and livestock. The increased heat comes at a bad time for corn, which is reaching the reproductive stage (tasseling), and therefore more vulnerable to heat and potential yield loss. In addition, extreme heat during the COVID-19 pandemic may mean that common public health actions by communities to reduce heat-related illness and death may need to be modified.
Current Conditions
U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions

  • Severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought persists across much of Colorado and western Kansas. Exceptional drought (D4) was just introduced at the southern border of those states.
  • Moderate drought (D1) persists in portions of the Missouri River Basin and Midwest as well. Roughly 45% of the central U.S. is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions (D0).
Current U.S. Drought Monitor Maps: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Soil Moisture Percentile
0-40 cm for July 7, 2020

Due to recent above-normal temperatures and drier-than normal conditions, soil moisture is below the 30th percentile for many locations, particularly in Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Ohio.
Outlook and Impacts
Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks: July 15-21, 2020

In mid-July, there is a significantly greater chance for above-normal temperatures across the central U.S., with the greatest chances in the Great Lakes region and western Plains. Some areas may also experience drier-than-normal conditions, while others may receive near- to above-normal precipitation.

For areas that do receive rainfall, issues will likely persist or potentially worsen since above-normal temperatures will continue to increase the atmospheric demand of water from the soil.
Current CPC Outlooks: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Agricultural Impacts

  • Grasses/alfalfa are already yielding lower in the driest locations, and rangeland and winter wheat have already been damaged in the Central Plains.
  • Temperatures are increasing to stressful levels right about the time corn reaches the reproductive phase (tasseling), where yield loss can be most severe. Other agriculture (soybeans, specialty crops, livestock, rangeland) will likely be stressed as well due to hot temperatures, particularly if there is not significant rainfall.
Health Impacts

  • Daytime temperatures exceeding 85°F coupled with warm overnight temperatures above 70°F increase stress significantly on humans, particularly those that are outside workers, elderly, and/or do not have access to air conditioning.
  • Extreme heat during the COVID-19 pandemic may mean that common public health actions may need to be modified. For more information, please visit: https://www.ghhin.org/heat-and-covid-19
For More Information

Prepared By: 
 
Molly Woloszyn & Britt Parker
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Dennis Todey
USDA Midwest Climate Hub

Doug Kluck
NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information

Ray Wolf
NOAA/National Weather Service

Natalie Umphlett
High Plains Regional Climate Center

Mike Timlin
Midwestern Regional Climate Center 

In partnership with the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and American Association of State Climatologists (AASC).