ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO
January 3, 2012
Acus Consulting Ltd.
BRIEF EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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a) The forecasted inflation rate is 3.53% for 2011, 3.69% for 2012 and 3.57% in 2013.
b) The closing exchange rate MXN/USD is 13.15 for 2012 and 13.09 for 2013. But, futures market has closing exchange rates of 14.40 and 14.85 for these two years.
c) The forecasted closing Cetes interest rates are 4.48% for 2012 and 5.06% for 2013. For TIIE are 4.41% and 4.92%.
d) The forecasted GDP growth rate for Mexico is 3.90% for 2011, 3.23% for 2012 and 3.44% for 2013.
e) The forecasted GDP growth rate for the USA is 1.7% for 2011 and 2.1% for 2012.
f) The expected trade balance deficit for Mexico is 3,732 million USD for 2011 and 8,780 million USD for 2012.
g) The average annual oil price for the Mexican export mix is expected to be 94.85 USD for the full 2012 year and 97.04 USD for the first quarter.
h) 20% express that there will be an improvement in the six months in the business climate in Mexico. 64% expressed that the Mexican economy is better today than a year ago.
i) Among the factors that could limit the Mexican economic activity are the world economic weakness (26%), the international financial instability (26%), the public insecurity problems (15%) and the lack of structural reforms (15%).