"The most important scientific revolutions all include, as their only common feature, the dethronement of human arrogance from one pedestal after another of previous convictions about our centrality in the cosmos."   
- Stephen Jay Gould

"Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever."
- Napoleon Bonaparte (1768 - 1821)

There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things.
- Machiavelli

Forwarded from a friend.   Larger size charts can be viewed at the link: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/every-vaccine-treatment-covid-19-so-far/


Every Vaccine and Treatment in Development for COVID-19, So Far

visualcapitalist.com · by Nick Routley · April 1, 2020

Every Vaccine and Treatment in Development for COVID-19

As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continues to skyrocket, healthcare researchers around the world are working tirelessly to discover new life-saving medical innovations.
The projects these companies are working on can be organized into three distinct groups:
  1. Diagnostics: Quickly and effectively detecting the disease in the first place
  2. Treatments: Alleviating symptoms so people who have disease experience milder symptoms, and lowering the overall mortality rate
  3. Vaccines: Preventing transmission by making the population immune to COVID-19
Today's graphics provide an in-depth look at who's in the innovation race to defeat the virus, and they come to us courtesy of  Artis Ventures, a venture capital firm focused on life sciences and tech investments.
Editor's note: R&D is moving fast on COVID-19, and the situation is quite fluid. While today's post is believed to be an accurate snapshot of all innovations and developments listed by WHO and FDA as of March 30, 2020, it is possible that more data will become available.

Knowledge is Power

Testing rates during this pandemic have been a point of contention. Without widespread testing, it has been tough to accurately track the spread of the virus, as well as pin down important metrics such as  infectiousness and mortality rates. Inexpensive test kits that offer quick results will be key to curbing the outbreak.
Here are the companies and institutions developing new tests for COVID-19:
The ultimate aim of companies like  Abbott and  BioFire Defense is to create a test that can produce accurate results in as little as a few minutes.

In the Trenches With Coronavirus

While the majority of people infected with COVID-19 only experience minor symptoms, the disease can cause severe issues in some cases - even resulting in death. Most of the forms of treatment being pursued fall into one of two categories:
  1. Treating respiratory symptoms - especially the inflammation that occurs in severe cases
  2. Antiviral growth - essentially stopping viruses from multiplying inside the human body
Here are the companies and institutions developing new treatment options for COVID-19:
A wide range of players are in the race to develop treatments related to COVID-19. Pharma and healthcare companies are in the mix, as well as universities and institutes.
One surprising name on the list is  Fujifilm. The Japanese company's stock recently shot up on the news that Avigan, a decades-old flu drug developed through Fujifilm's healthcare subsidiary, might be effective at helping coronavirus patients recover. The Japanese government's  stockpile of the drug is reportedly enough to treat two million people.

Vaccine

The progress that is perhaps being watched the closest by the general public is the development of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Creating a safe vaccine for a new illness is no easy feat. Thankfully, rapid progress is being made for a variety of reasons, including China's efforts to sequence the genetic material of Sars-CoV-2 and to share that information with research groups around the world.
Another factor contributing to the unprecedented speed of development is the fact that coronaviruses were already on the radar of health science researchers. Both SARS and MERS were caused by coronaviruses, and even though vaccines were shelved once those outbreaks were contained, learnings can still be applied to defeating COVID-19.
One of the most promising leads on a COVID-19 vaccine is mRNA-1273. This vaccine, developed by  Moderna Therapeutics, is being developed with extreme urgency, skipping straight into human trials before it was even tested in animals. If all goes well with the trials currently underway in Washington State, the company hopes to have an early version of the vaccine ready by fall 2020. The earliest versions of the vaccine would be made available to at-risk groups such as healthcare workers.
Further down the pipeline are 15 types of subunit vaccines. This method of vaccination uses a fragment of a pathogen, typically a surface protein, to trigger an immune response, teaching the body's immune system how to fight off the disease without actually introducing live pathogens.

No Clear Finish Line

Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet for solving this pandemic.
A likely scenario is that teams of researchers around the world will come up with solutions that will incrementally help stop the spread of the virus, mitigate symptoms for those infected, and help lower the overall death toll. As well, early solutions rushed to market will need to be refined over the coming months.
We can only hope that the hard lessons learned from fighting COVID-19 will help stop a future outbreak in its tracks before it becomes a pandemic. For now, those of us on the sideline can only do our best to  flatten the curve.
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Central Banks

The Anatomy of the $2 Trillion COVID-19 Stimulus Bill

A visual breakdown of the CARES Act, the $2 trillion package to provide COVID-19 economic relief. It's the largest stimulus bill in modern history.
Published
2 days ago
on
March 30, 2020

The Anatomy of the $2 Trillion COVID-19 Stimulus Bill

The unprecedented response to the COVID-19 pandemic has prioritized keeping people apart to slow the spread of the virus. While measures such as business closures and travel restrictions are effective at fighting a pandemic, they also have a  dramatic impact on the economy.
To help right the ship, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act - also known as the  CARES Act - was passed by U.S. lawmakers last week with little fanfare. The act became the largest economic stimulus bill in modern history, more than doubling the stimulus act passed in 2009 during the Financial Crisis.
Today's Sankey diagram is a visual representation of where the  $2 trillion will be spent. Broadly speaking, there are five components to the COVID-19 stimulus bill:
CategoryTotal AmountShare of the Package Individuals / Families$603.7 billion30% Big Business$500.0 billion25% Small Business$377.0 billion19% State and Local Government$340.0 billion17% Public Services$179.5 billion9%
Although the COVID-19 stimulus bill is incredibly complex, here are some of the most important parts to be aware of.

Funds for Individuals

Amount: $603.7 billion - 30% of total CARES Act
In order to stimulate the sputtering economy quickly, the U.S. government will deploy "helicopter money" - direct cash payments to individuals and families.
The centerpiece of this plan is a $1,200 direct payment for those earning up to $75,000 per year. For higher earners, payment amounts will phase out, ending altogether at the $99,000 income level. Families will also receive $500 per child.
There are three other key things to know about this portion of the stimulus funds:
  1. There will be a temporary suspension for any student loan held by the federal government. This means no payments required and no interest accrued until the end of September, 2020.
  2. Borrowers with federally backed loans can request forbearance on mortgage payments for up to six months.
  3. There will be an expansion of unemployment benefits, including a four-month enhancement of benefits. This plan includes freelancers, workers in the gig economy, and furloughed employees.

Big Business

Amount: $500.0 billion - 25% of total CARES Act
This component of the package is aimed at stabilizing big businesses in hard-hit sectors.
The most obvious industry to receive support will be the airlines. About  $58 billion has been earmarked for commercial and cargo airlines, as well as airline contractors. Perhaps in response to recent criticism of the industry, companies receiving stimulus money will be barred from engaging in stock buybacks for the term of the loan plus one year.
One interesting pathway highlighted by today's Sankey diagram is the  $17 billion allocated to "maintaining national security". While this provision doesn't mention any specific company by name, the primary recipient is  believed to be Boeing.
The bill also indicates that an inspector general will oversee the recovery process, along with a special committee.

Small Business

Amount: $377.0 billion - 19% of total CARES Act
To ease the strain on businesses around the country, the Small Business Administration (SBA) will be given  $350 billion to provide loans of up to $10 million to qualifying organizations. These funds can be used for mission critical activities, such as paying rent or keeping employees on the payroll during COVID-19 closures.
As well, the bill sets aside  $10 billion in grants for small businesses that need help covering short-term operating costs.

State and Local Governments

Amount: $340.0 billion - 17% of total CARES Act
The biggest portion of funds going to local and state governments is the  $274 billion allocated towards direct COVID-19 response. The rest of the funds in this component will go to schools and child care services.

Public and Health Services

Amount: $179.5 billion - 9% of total CARES Act
The biggest slice of this pie goes to healthcare providers, who will receive  $100 billion in grants to help fight COVID-19. This was a major ask from groups representing the healthcare industry, as they look to make up the lost revenue caused by focusing on the outbreak - as opposed to performing elective surgeries and other procedures. There will also be a 20% increase in Medicare payments for treating patients with the virus.
Money is also set aside for initiatives such as increasing the availability of ventilators and masks for the Strategic National Stockpile, as well as providing additional funding for the Center for Disease Control and expanding the reach of virtual doctors.
Finally, beyond the healthcare-related funding, the CARES Act also addresses food security programs and a long list of educational and arts initiatives.
Hat tip to Reddit user SevenandForty for inspiring this graphic.
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COVID-19

The Math Behind Social Distancing

Social distancing has been the first line of defense against COVID-19. We look at the math and science behind social distancing, to show how it works.
Published
4 days ago
on
March 28, 2020

The Math Behind Social Distancing

As we wait for scientists and healthcare professionals to develop a vaccine for COVID-19, there is another, more readily available tool at our disposal.
Social distancing, defined as measures taken to reduce physical contact, is the first line of defense for containing an infectious disease like  COVID-19. That's because these infections spread when people cough, sneeze, or touch surfaces on which the virus resides.
To help us grasp the impact these measures can actually have, today's infographic illustrates how a reduction in social exposure can theoretically contain the spread of infection.

Theoretical Potential

The calculations used to create today's infographic come from  Signer Laboratory, a stem cell research lab located in the Moores Cancer Center at the University of California San Diego.
Using a summation formula makes it possible to estimate the number of new infections over a 30 day period, across three scenarios.
Scenario5 Day Period30 Day Period No social distancing practiced1 person infects 2.5* others 406 people infected as a result 50% reduction in social exposure1 person infects 1.25* others 15 people infected as a result 75% reduction in social exposure1 person infects 0.625* others 2.5 people infected as a result
*For estimations only. It is not possible to infect only a fraction of another person.
To arrive at the figures reported above,  Robert A.J. Signer, Ph.D., and his team made a number of key assumptions.
First, they estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 to be 2.5, a figure supported by recent  research. This means that, on average, an infected individual will spread the disease to 2.5 other people.
Next, they assumed that an infected individual will unknowingly spread COVID-19 over the  median five day incubation period. After this period, the individual will begin to develop symptoms, immediately self quarantine, and no longer pose a threat.
Finally, they assumed a direct linear correlation between social interactions and R0. This means that when an infected person reduces their physical contact with others by 50%, they also spread the disease by an amount 50% less.

Timing is Everything

While the figures above are the results of mathematical estimations, researchers have actually studied social distancing from a variety of angles.
One study used  simulations to determine the magnitude and timing of social distancing measures required to prevent a pandemic. The distancing measures simulated were:
MeasureDetails School closureTeachers and students spent weekday daytime cycles at home, rather than at school. Increased case isolationUpon becoming symptomatic, adults (90%) and children (100%) would self quarantine for the duration of the infection. Workplace non-attendanceEach day, a person had a 50% chance of staying home instead of attending their workplace. Community contact reductionIndividuals reduced their physical contact with community members by half, each day. Combination of all fourAll four measures combined.
The results, for a community of 30,000 people and an epidemic with R=2.5, are charted below. We can define the  final illness attack rate as the share of people from an at risk population who ultimately catch the disease.
Results showed that when no action was taken,  65% of the population contracted the disease. However, if a combination of all four distancing measures were implemented instead, the attack rates were:
  • 45% (distancing begins after a 4 week delay)
  • 21% (distancing begins after a 3 week delay)
  • 7% (distancing begins after a 2 week delay)
What's clear is that social distancing was significantly more effective when implemented with minimal delay-the final illness attack rate rose quickest beyond the third week. These findings draw a parallel to the visualizations in today's infographic, which showed us just how quickly a disease can spread.
Social distancing interventions are important as they represent the only ... measure guaranteed to be available against a novel strain of influenza in the early phases of a pandemic.
Kelso, J.K., Milne, G.J. & Kelly, H., BMC Public Health 9, 117 (2009)
We arrive at a similar conclusion when it comes to the types of distancing measures implemented. In the simulations, none of the four measures taken on their own were able to have a similar effect as when they were combined.

We All Have a Part to Play

With the global number of COVID-19 cases still rising, many governments have issued quarantine orders and travel bans.
The math supports these decisions-reducing our physical contact with others, even when we aren't experiencing any symptoms, is crucial. Studies like the one summarized above also prove that taking action sooner, rather than later, can go a long way in reducing the spread of infection.
The key takeaway from all of this? Social distancing is a powerful disease control tool, but only if we all participate.
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De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Phone: 202-573-8647
Web Site:  www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD's new podcastForeign Podicy
 
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.


If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."