Forecast: 31% Chance of Recession
U.S. chief financial officers say there is a 31% chance that the
U.S. economy will be in recession by the end of 2016, up from a 16% chance forecast nine months ago, according to a survey of CFOs by Duke University and CFO Global Business Outlook. The biggest risk factors are the slowdown in China (59%), political turmoil in the U.S. (53%), a stock market decline (50%), and the price of oil (40%). Still, 60% of firms expect to increase employment in 2016, with the increase averaging 2%.
Employment growth will be strongest in services and consulting, technology, retail and wholesale, and construction. Energy firms will reduce their workforce by 9%, and manufacturing employment will shrink by 1%. CFOs listed the difficulty of attracting and retaining qualified employees as one of their top three overall business concerns.
Duke University School of Business