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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
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Forecast
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Prior Observation
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Consensus
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Week of July 9
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July 9
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Consumer Credit - May
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$8.5B
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6.5
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8.5
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July 10
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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
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91.5
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94.4
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92.0
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July 11
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International Trade - May
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-$48.4B
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-50.1
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-48.7
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Wholesale Inventories - May
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0.2%
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0.6
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0.3
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Wholesale Sales
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0.0
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1.1
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0.2
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July 12
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Initial Unemployment Claims
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380K
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374
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375
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Export Prices - June
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-0.3%
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-0.4
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-0.2
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Import Prices
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-1.9
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-1.0
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-1.9
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Import Prices, ex-Energy
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Treasury Budget - June
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-$80.0B
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-124.6
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-75.8
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July 13
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Producer Price Index - June
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-1.0%
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-1.0
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-0.4
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PPI Core
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0.2
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0.2
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0.2
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment - July (p)
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72.0
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73.2
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73.5
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Week of July 16
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July 16
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Retail Sales - June
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0.1%
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-0.2
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0.1
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Retail Sales, ex Autos
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0.0
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-0.4
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0.0
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NY Fed Manufacturing Index
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6.0
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2.3
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2.5
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Business Inventories - May
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0.3%
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0.4
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0.3
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July 17
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Consumer Price Index - June
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-0.1%
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-0.3
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-0.2
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Core CPI
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0.2
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0.2
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0.2
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Industrial Production - June
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0.3%
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-0.1
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0.3
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Capacity Utilization
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79.2
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79.0
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79.2
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NAHB Index - July
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29
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29
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30
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July 18
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Housing Starts - June
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740K
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708
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.735
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Building Permits
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750
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780
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.760
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July 19
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Initial Unemployment Claims
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Existing Home Sales - June
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4.615M
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4.550
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4.62
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Philadelphia Fed Survey
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-2.0
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-16.6
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-5.0
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Leading Indicators
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0.1%
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0.3
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0.1
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Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.
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Peter Morici
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Professor
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Robert H. Smith School of Business
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University of Maryland
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College Park, MD 20742-1815
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703 549 4338
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Cell 703 618 4338
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pmorici@rhsmith.umd.edu
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http://www.smith.umd.edu/lbpp/faculty/morici.aspx
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www.facebook.com/pmorici1
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Twitter @pmorici1
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