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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
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Forecast
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Prior Observation
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Consensus
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Week of June 25
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June 25
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New Home Sales - May
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345K
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343
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350
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Dallas Fed General Business Activity
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0.0
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-5.1
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0.0
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June 26
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S&P Case/Shiller Index - April
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Ten City M/M
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0.1%
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-0.1
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Ten City Y/Y
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-3.2
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-2.8
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Twenty City M/M
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0.1
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0.0
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Twenty City M/M - SA
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0.1
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0.1
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0.4
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Twenty City Y/Y
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-3.0
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-2.6
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-2.7
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Consumer Confidence - June
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64.0
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64.9
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63.5
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
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5
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4
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5
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June 27
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Durable Goods Sales - May
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0.5%
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0.2
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0.4
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Pending Home Sale Index - April
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95.5
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95.5
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96.6
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June 28
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Initial Unemployment Claims
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385K
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387.0
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385
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Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
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4
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9
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4
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GDP - Q1 (f)
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1.9%
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1.9
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1.9
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GDP Implicit Price Deflator
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1.7
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1.7
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1.7
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June 29
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Personal Income - May
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0.2%
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0.2
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0.2
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Personal Spending
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0.0
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0.3
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0.0
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Chicago PMI - June
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53.3
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52.7
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53.0
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment - June m(r)
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74.1
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74.1
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74.1
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Week of July 2
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July 2
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ISM (Mfg) - June
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53.0
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53.5
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52.6
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ISM Prices
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46.0
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47.5
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45.8
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Construction Spending - May
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0.2%
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0.3
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0.2
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July 3
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Factory Orders - May
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-0.2%
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-0.6
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-0.2
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Durable Goods Orders
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0.5
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0.0
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0.4
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Nondurable Goods Orders
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-0.4
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-1.1
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Auto Sales* - June
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13.93M
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13.77
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13.90
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Car Sales
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6.90
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6.86
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Truck Sales
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7.03
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6.92
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*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
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July 5
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ADP Employment Report - July
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110K
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133.0
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104
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Initial Jobless Claims
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ISM Services - June
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54.0
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53.7
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53.5
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ISM Prices
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50.0
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49.8
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ISM Business Activity
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55.9
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55.6
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July 6
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Nonfarm Payrolls - June
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96K
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69
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90
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Private
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104
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82
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100
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Core Private*
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65
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39
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Manufacturing
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5
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13
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5
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Unemployment
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8.2%
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8.2
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8.2
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Average Workweek
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34.4Hrs
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34.4
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34.4
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Average Hourly Earnings
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0.2%
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0.0
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0.2
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Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.
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Peter Morici
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Professor
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Robert H. Smith School of Business
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University of Maryland
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College Park, MD 20742-1815
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703 549 4338
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Cell 703 618 4338
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pmorici@rhsmith.umd.edu
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http://www.smith.umd.edu/lbpp/faculty/morici.aspx
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www.facebook.com/pmorici1
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Twitter @pmorici1
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