Investment Insight
October 2017
Will She Stay or Will  She Go?
Since the campaign, President Trump has frequently suggested he may not reappoint Janet Yellen as chair of the Federal Reserve.  The financial markets like Janet Yellen and generally believe she has done a good job.  Pressed for a reason, Trump once said she kept interest rates too low, and then in the next breath, said he preferred low interest rates.  More recently, Trump has said Presidents like to make their own mark, but then suggested the markets have risen since his election because he and Yellen make a good team.  Your guess on this one is as good as ours, or anyone else's claiming any enlightenment as to this outcome. 

Who else is a potential Fed Chair appointee?  The odds keep changing but the names are the same.  Current Fed governor Jerome Powell, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, Stanford professor John Taylor, and the current White House economic director, Gary Cohn.  In the past few days, Taylor and Powell seem to be the front runners, with Trump having the option of appointing both... one as Chair and one as Vice-Chair.  Both Taylor and Powell are Republicans as opposed to Yellen who is a Democrat.  Taylor has been especially vocal about his dislike of the Fed's current low interest rate policies and would likely push to raise rates faster.  Powell might also be a more hawkisk Fed Chair, but has not been as critical as Taylor.  The bond market has pushed interest rates up on the 10 year treasury in reaction.  One month ago, the 10 year yielded 2.30%.  Now the yield is 2.43%. 

In the financial world, where predictability and continuity are supposedly cherished, a large departure from current policies would seem a cautious move.  Faster rate increases generally worry markets.  However, there has been nothing predictable or continuous about this administration since before Trump took office and the financial markets have remained eerily calm.  Wall Street bets on everything, so you can watch the market expectations real time at PredictIt.org.  The current odds on the afternoon of October 25th are below.  Stay tuned...

Monetary policy is not the only thing up in the air, so is fiscal policy.  The tax plan is making the rounds again.  Of course, there is disagreement.  The Senate has passed a budget plan that includes lower tax rates and higher defense spending, but it contains items that are not palatable to some in the House.  Sticking points include eliminating the deduction for payment of state and local income taxes and reductions to the tax deductible limits for 401K contributions.  Then there are the deficit hawks in the House that choke on the idea of expanding the deficit by $1.5 trillion over ten years.  The House still maintains any budget should be deficit-neutral, and it currently has the votes to hold the line on that statement.  How do you fill a $1.5 trillion hole?  Again, stay tuned...

Earnings season is in high gear as companies reveal how fast they grew, or didn't, during the third quarter.  So far, with 165 of 505 companies reporting, earnings growth has been 6.73% higher than last year after posting 7.78% yearly growth last quarter. Energy is still sporting the fastest earnings growth by far with a growth rate of over 200% versus last year.  In the investment business, we call this "easy comps" meaning the past year was so bad that the comparisons are easy.  Outside of easy comp energy, sectors reporting better than average results include technology, materials, and health care.  Stock market valuations are not cheap, so reasonably healthy earnings growth supports prices and builds confidence that some upside remains to be enjoyed by investors.
 

Our asset allocation committee made no changes to our stock versus bond weights during October.  Neither asset class is inexpensive, but we judge stocks as still offering the better expected return outcome in the near term.  Financial conditions across the globe remain tame and economic data has strengthened from the summer and continues to hold steady.  Central banks are backing off their monetary support levels and markets are responding favorably.  While there is always a chance of the unexpected, market conditions are not currently flashing danger signs.

Tracy Bell, CFA
Senior Vice President, Senior Portfolio Manager & Market Strategist
Tracy joined the IBERIA Wealth Advisors team in September 2010 and has 20 years of investment management experience. She has a broad background in fiduciary asset management which includes portfolio management for high net worth individuals and institutions, asset allocation policy making, investment management consulting, equity research, and equity and fixed income trading. Tracy manages client accounts across the IBERIA Wealth Advisors footprint and oversees the construction and management of IWA's two proprietary equity strategies, Dividend Focus and Growth Focus. She serves as a member of both the IWA Asset Allocation and IWA Investment Policy Committees. Tracy is a frequent speaker on economic and investment topics within the community and authors many of IWA's investment publications. She has been included twice in the Birmingham Business Journal's Table of Experts Series. Tracy graduated from the University of Alabama with a Bachelor of Science degree in finance and is a CFA Charterholder. She is a member of the CFA Institute of Alabama and has a Series 65 license. She has served as an industry mentor for the CFA Student Research Teams from both The University of Alabama and Samford University. Tracy is a past member of the Episcopal Dioceses of Alabama Finance Department and currently serves on the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Finance Department Advisory Board.

Disclosures
Views are as of the date above and are subject to change based on market conditions and other factors. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and are subject to change at any time. These views are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to purchase any security or as a solicitation or investment advice from the Advisor.
 
The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed and should not be relied upon in any way, whatsoever. This information does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations with respect to the securities or sectors listed.  Diversification and asset allocation do not assure a profit nor protect against loss.
 
The actual return and value of an account fluctuate and, at any time, the account may be worth more or less than the amount invested.  Past performance results are not indicative of future results.

Presentation is prepared by: IBERIA Wealth Advisors
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