A new article released by the Washington-based America's Promise Alliance on 5 Myths About What It Takes To Make It To and Through College [1] furthers the debate on whether high school grades or admission tests are better predictors of college success.

It is a myth that ACT and SAT scores are the most important predictors of success in college, says the article, based on an earlier posting by Chicago's To&Through Project . The facts, from a study of achievement in the Chicago Public Schools [2], are:

While ACT/SAT scores matter for college access, grades (GPAs) are much more predictive of college success. In fact, strong grades-earning As and Bs in high school-are the strongest indicator of college readiness and are much more predictive of college graduation than any test score. Students with an ACT score 

of 21- 23 have about a 50 percent chance of graduating from college 

if their high school GPA is between 2.5 and 2.9. Yet students with ACT 

scores in the same range of 21-23 but with high school GPAs between 3.0 and 3.4 graduate college at much higher rates of nearly 70 percent.

Chicago's To&Through Project is a partnership among the University of Chicago's Urban Education Institute and Network for College Success that is supported by nearly two decades of research from the UChicago Consortium at the Urban Education Institute. 

The conclusion that grades are a better predictor than the ACT/SAT test has been supported in other research. A Georgia study found that  GPA is a better predictor [3] than graduation tests or end of course exams.

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