THE TTALK QUOTES
On Global Trade & Investment
Published By:
The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
Washington, DC   Tel: 202-463-5074
No. 3  of 2018
 
TUESDAY, JANUARY 23, 2018

Click here for last Friday's Dispute Settlement Quote from Pablo Bentes.

WTO DISPUTE SETTLEMENT: A TANGLED WEB

"We got here because, in the end of day, the system has not worked out how the United States anticipated that it would." 

Jennifer Hillman 
December 20, 2017
CONTEXT
Jennifer Hillman is a professor at the Georgetown Law Center and a fellow at Georgetown's Institute of International Economic Law.  She was the last of  four speakers who participated in the GBD December 20 colloquium on the WTO dispute settlement system.  More than that, she herself is an exemplar of some of the issues discussed.  She is a former member of the Appellate Body of the WTO, and she was the second U.S. Appellate Body member to have her reappointment blocked by the United States.

Pablo Bentes of Steptoe and Johnson, who spoke before Ms. Hillman, posed the question, "How did we get here?," and she picked up on it.  Here is more of what she said:

My own view on that is we got here because, in the end of the day, ... the system has not worked out how the United States anticipated that it would.  ... It's worth thinking a little about.  What were the expectations of the United States when the system went into place? 

I think, first of all, the expectation of the United States is that the vast majority of the time the United States would be on offense and only relatively rarely, if ever, on defense.  Because again, as [was] said, the presumption was, when we joined and we passed the Uruguay Round Agreements [Act],  ...  that all of our laws were already consistent with the WTO.  So there would be very little reason or opportunity for anyone to challenge the United States because we were already fully consistent. 

And obviously, that's not what's turned out.  We've ended up on the defense far more than we have ended up on the offense-not far more but certainly more often we've ended up on the defensive side. 

And that, Ms. Hillman explained, was not the only miscalculation.  Neither the United States nor anyone else expected there to be such a large number of appeals to the Appellate Body.  "The presumption," she said, "was that appeals were going to be rare and limited to one or two small legal questions."  That is not the way things have turned out.  Again, Ms Hillman:

"We have almost 70 percent of cases-and lately 80 and 90 percent of cases-going up  on appeal.  And every appeal having five, six, seven, eight, ten, twelve claims on appeal."

And then, she said, there was the expectation that the Appellate Body would only review questions of law, with the facts having been tried and determined by the panels, which are the first to hear disputes after the conclusion of bilateral negotiations.  Yet as things have turned out, the Appellate Body is now called upon to review the facts of particular disputes as well as issues of law. 

Like the others, Ms. Hillman's presentation was rich in facts, insights, and perspectives, and we would encourage you to take in the whole thing, either by reading the transcript or listening to the recording.  Here are a few  highlights from some of the issues she touched upon.

The Fundamental Nature of the WTO.  Ambassador Lighthizer has said clearly that he sees the WTO agreements as a contract and the dispute settlement system as a tool of interpreting that contract.  Others see it is as something more, namely an institution that, among things, is engaged in the process of developing a jurisprudence for the conduct of trade.  Our impression is that Ms Hillman is in the latter camp.  As she explained, "You cannot have a contract that is going to go into every one of these details that can be contained in any single volume."

No Agreed History.  In other institutions, Ms. Hillman said, one can look to the history of a law or rule for guidance respecting its interpretation, that is to the legislative history.  "For the WTO, you do not have that," she said.  She illustrated the point with perhaps the most famous example:

"We [the United States] are positive that the negotiators never meant to outlaw zeroing, and the party on the other side saying they're equally positive that the negotiators did mean to outlaw zeroing."

Ex-AB Members and Unfinished Cases.  Ms. Hillman was especially eloquent in discussing the current flap over allowing Members of the Appellate Body who have resigned or whose terms have expired to complete cases they are already working on.  As she explained:

[In 1996,] working rules were written that say a person who ceases to be a member of the Appellate Body may, with the authorization of the Appellate Body and upon notification to the DSB, complete the disposition of any appeal to which that person was assigned while a member.  And that person shall, for that purpose only, be deemed to be a member of the Appellate Body.  So, it's basically saying, if you started working on an appeal, and your term expired, you can finish it.  This should not be earth shattering. 

In 1996, the United States went along with that rule.  Today it is objecting to it.  
Will the Appellate Body Shut Down?  Things certainly seem to be moving in that direction.  There are now four members, and their number is dwindling. Ms. Hillman drew the picture:

By September of next year we'll be down to three members.  You know, six months after, that you're down to under three, which means the Appellate Body literally cannot function, cannot issue any appeals.  And you've effectively shut down the ability for anyone to have an appeal. 

That is not to say that there may not be ways around this winding down of the WTO Appellate Body.  Ms. Hillman suggested three, from relatively quick, pro-forma decisions, to arbitration, to voting on members. 
COMMENT
We said in earlier entries on this topic that we would hold our comments for later.  That continues to be the case ... for the most part.  But there are three points that seem to fit here.

The first is a confession of ignorance.  Both Ms. Hillman and Mr. Bentes referred to the possibility of going around the rule that says Appellate Body members must be chosen by consensus, that is, by the full WTO membership.  We don't know exactly how that would work.  We may have to learn, however, if things begin to move in that direction.

Second, for us, one of Ms. Hillman's most telling comments was what she said these Appellate Body developments mean for those caught up in WTO disputes - both as petitioners and as respondents.  The logic, she said, is this:

If you've lost a judgment, appeal right now, because no remedy can come until the appeal has been completed.  So now, we're supposed to have seven members of the Appellate Body, we're down to four.  The queue is getting longer and longer.  So, if you file an appeal, it will be years before that appeal can be heard.

Third, that may be good news for respondents, but it is not so good for those who look to the WTO to right the wrongs the believe are harming them.  To take a very current example, yesterday President Trump signed the orders imposing new tariffs on imported washing machines and solar panels.  South Korea produces both. 

Will the new tariffs hurt or benefit the U.S. economy?  Are they consistent with U.S. obligations under the WTO?   We have no firm opinion with respect to either question.  We only note that Korea makes both products, and, to say the least, Korea's trade minister, Kim Hyun-chong, is not happy.  A former WTO official, he is thinking about taking the U.S. to the WTO.  "If we file the suit with the WTO," he said, "we can win." Perhaps, but it is likely to be a very long process indeed.  
SOURCES & LINKS
Jennifer Hillman's remarks takes you to the GBD transcript of her presentation at the GBD colloquium on December 20, 2017.  This was the source for today's featured quote as well as most of the other quotations above.   
 
The Audio is a link to the audio recording of Ms. Hillman's remarks at the same event.  
 
Disputed Court takes you to a page on the WTO website devoted to materials from GBD's colloquium on this topic on December 20, 2017.  
 
Korea Reacts is a link to a Yonhap News story with the above quote from Minister Kim.  

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