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BAM MARKET WRAP
May 27, 2016
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LISTLESS MARKETS AND MEMORIAL DAY PLANS??
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WHERE WE HAVE BEEN 
 
After a 4 week pullback of 3%, the S&P surged this past week to get back most of those losses.  For the month, the index is up a little over 1% with year to date gains at about that same level.    All told, the indices are going nowhere fast.   The major indices remain in a very broad 2 year range.  For the S&P, the range stretches from the 2130-2140 area to the 1810-1820 area.  With the S&P near the 2100 mark we are close to challenging the upper end of the range.   

 
WHERE WE ARE HEADED 
 
June will bring with it 2 very important and potentially market moving events.  The Fed will meet on the 14th and 15th with its much anticipated interest rate decision due the afternoon of the 15th.  On the 23rd, Great Britain will hold a referendum on whether or not to stay in the European Union (Brexit).   Either of these could have significant effects on the short and intermediate trends of the market.  While economic measures continue to disappoint many had written off the possibility of an interest rate hike in June.  However, a number of Federal Reserve officials have spoken over the last couple of weeks indicating the increased possibility of such an increase.   The rate decision will create different winners and losers but overall an increase in rates would likely result in a market pullback at best and a correction at worst.  Interest rate policy is designed to slow an overheated economy (interest hike) or stimulate a dragging economy (interest cut).  The Fed has deviated from its stated mission for a number of years now.  The market effects of a Brexit is a little less clear.  Some argue that a Britain exit could lead to a contagion effect with other countries following suit.  For now, the uncertainty surrounding the referendum is something to be watched and monitored.  With markets bouncing up at the top of the range, the slowing summer season approaching, a muddled economy, and the uncertainty surrounding the Fed and Britain, it is hard to imagine the markets continuing to rally absent any external catalyst.  To this point, we see no catalyst on the horizon.  If the markets can push through the top of the range, it would be time to re-evaluate but until such time investors would be wise to hold what they have.   

HOW WE ARE DOING

Our portfolios have not changed much this month and remain invested in low volatility funds.  For the month, our portfolios are flat.  Significant portfolio changes could be coming if the markets can push up through overhead resistance.  Similarly, a failure at these levels and a drift downward could result in a juggling of our holdings.  The markets have been in a holding pattern for the last two months with little in the way of market movement.  That will change at some point and we remain at the ready to make changes as market conditions warrant.  

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Tidbits
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WE DON'T MAKE MUCH - There were 12.33 million manufacturing jobs in the United States as of 2/29/16.  There were 12.38 million manufacturing jobs in the United States as of 7/31/41 or 75 years ago (source: Department of Labor).

THE TOLL OF WAR - Nearly 30% of the 1.3 million individuals that applied for asylum in 2015 within the European Union were refugees from Syria, a country suffering from a 5-year civil war (source: Eurostat). 

MORE THAN NEEDED - The world's surplus in oil production (i.e., global oil production in excess of global oil consumption) is 1.9 million barrels a day during the 1st quarter 2016, a total that is projected to drop to a surplus of 1.5 million barrels a day in the 2nd quarter 2016 (source: International Energy Administration). 

JUST A LITTLE INSIDE - Chase Utley of the Los Angeles Dodgers and formerly with the Philadelphia Phillies is major league baseball's active leader in being hit-by-a-pitch.  Utley has been hit 179 times in his 13-year career (source: Major League Baseball).

THEIR OBJECTIVE - China's government announced on Saturday 3/05/16 a growth target of 6.5% to 7% for its economy during calendar year 2016.  The US economy has grown by at least +6.5% during just 1 calendar year in the last 49 years (1967-2015).  The US economy grew by +7.3% in 1984 (source: Department of Labor).   
      
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Wedding plans for Emily (my oldest) continue to take shape as we approach the October day.   Emily and Jake recently purchased a house in the Nashville area with a closing next month.  Housing in Nashville has exploded and finding an affordable home in a safe area proved to be a real challenge.  Over the last 6 months, they made offers on several houses only to be told that they had been outbid.  Each of these houses was on the market one day and fetched more than their asking price!  It is definitely a seller's market.  
 
Kelly and I talked to Carter last night at 9 pm and all was well in Knoxville.  We received a call this morning at 10 am and Carter and his roommate had driven all night to a beach in North Carolina.  They are spending the weekend at the beach fishing and playing in the surf.  Ahhh youth!  The fancy-free lifestyle of deciding to go to the beach on a whim is appealing (and exhausting)!  I will say that planning would have been smart as it is Memorial Day weekend and places to stay are hard to find.  They are spending tonight in the car and re-evaluating tomorrow!   
 
Here's hoping your long Memorial Day weekend plans are coming together without any hiccups.  
 

 
Sam and Bo

 


 
 
 
Your financial partner for twenty years and counting because managing your money never gets old.
 

 

       
We continue to make posts to our blog throughout the week so check it regularly if you want to see our thoughts.  You can access it by following the link below.  


 

THE GREATEST COMPLIMENT

In these uncertain times, a trusted financial adviser is more important than ever.  Whatever comes over the upcoming months and quarters, the markets are certain to have lots of volatility and wild swings.  Europe, the US economy and dysfunction in Washington, and continued trouble in Iran and the Middle East to name just a few.  If you have family, friends and neighbors that may benefit from our services, would you please forward this email and/or provide our contact information to them.  We purposefully do not spend time marketing our services so that we can devote all of our resources to managing your assets.  Thank you to all who have provided us referrals - it truly is the greatest compliment you can give us.      



 
BAM MARKET WRAP EXTENDED
EDITION
 
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Remember to visit our blog for market comments and observations in between newsletters.  We try to provide a few comments in between newsletters and certainly when there is a particularly interesting market day.  You can access it by clicking here. 

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Sam Bills - (865) 525-1329

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Bo Bills - (615) 371-5928

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Published by Sam C. Bills, Jr.  Copyright © 2008 Bills Asset Management.  All rights reserved.

BAM Market Wrap is produced and distributed regularly via email by Sam C. Bills, Jr. of Bills Asset Management  3001 Flagstone Drive, Franklin, TN 37069 Phone (615) 371-5928 Fax (615) 250-4903 - www.Billsasset.com

Bills Asset Management  is an independent registered investment advisor (RIA) not associated with any financial institution.  Data used in this publication is gathered from reliable sources, although completeness and accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  Performance results do not take into account any tax consequences and are not predictive of future results.  This publication does not give any specific investment advice, does not provide financial planning services, or consider any individual's financial situation, needs or goals.  This publication may not be reproduced or retransmitted in whole or in part without the consent of the author, Sam C. Bills, Jr.

 

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