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New York City Real Estate Newsletter
Q1 2017
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Tis' the Season . . . Are You Ready?
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Photo: Inga Sarda-Sorensen
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Are you ready? This is the ultimate question right now. Where there had been mounting pessimism leading up to the US Election, the contrary has emerged. December and January proved to be busier than expectations and sentiment, at the moment, is even better than "cautiously optimistic." The market is likely on the cusp of a very busy Winter, as the notoriously "busiest time of the year" has arrived. So again, "are you ready?"
2016 was an interesting year, to say the least. Surprise, surprise 2017 will be too. In 2016, the myriad of geopolitical factors, including our own election, lead to uncertainty. Whereas the uncertainty will continue, the added unpredictability for 2017 keeps many anxious. We don't really know how large and how far the Oval office's wake will emanate; but the Trump presidency represents many positives for New York City real estate.
That said, there is a moderate degree of fear about rising interest rates, as they would reduce purchasing power. However, the prospects of faster economic growth have many encouraged and feeling that such momentum will mute any impact caused by those higher rates. The primary concern then becomes that if higher interest rates and inflation do materialize as expected (which would raise the cost of debt financing), will the necessary counterpart of higher rents to pay for that debt follow.
Regardless, the positives are varied. Reduced bank regulations should introduce new buyers to the marketplace. The prospects of reduced personal and corporate taxes should pad stock portfolios. Higher interest rates should also generate more interest income for the well off. Although interest rates are indeed on the rise, they are still extraordinarily low from a historical perspective, but the fact that they won't stay low for long will infuse urgency to buy sooner rather than later. All of this means there will be opportunities to be explored; so one must be ultimately prepared.
The first meaningful price corrections in the "Luxury" market did occur last year; however, some sellers are still resisting this clear adjustment. They will learn. Though prices are not likely to dip much further, if at all, a "new-normal" was established for pricing in 2016. Buyers have been dealt a stronger hand which will result in more normalized supply and demand curves...and this will be healthy for everyone. The other side of the story (non-luxury), where the bulk of the populous competes for property ($3M and below), remains quite robust and competitive, as always.
This year, we will not only learn what the Trump presidency will bring, but also: How will the most affordable rental market in years affect sales? How will the mayoral race begin to materialize? What will the face of the new 421-a tax abatement look like? Will the Second Avenue Subway affect prices on the Upper East Side? The L-Train? And much more. Hmmm, 2017 will be ____(?)_____ . Stay tuned...but be ready!
DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN
NEW YORK REAL ESTATE HAS HISTORICALLY
PROVEN TO BE A SAFE INVESTMENT
(phrase borrowed from HPDM)
Your best investment is often in the broker you choose. With Manhattan's palpable level of competitiveness, my clients have considered me their hidden-hand. My 18 years of experience afford me the expertise to pull back the curtain and reveal the circumstances as they are and the possibilities that exist.
"...man about TOWN"
(click on the photo above to view my promotional video)
* Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished
real estate professionals in New York City."
* Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales
price of $4.350M.
* Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)
* Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
<script src="//pixel.adwerx.com/64041/awp.js" async></script>
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Gorgeous Parlour Floor Duplex
Gorgeous Parlour Floor Duplex with 12 ft ceilings located just a stones throw from Central Park on quaint tree-lined West 85th Street. One of the exclusive features is a columned living room with marble fireplace and bronze wall fixtures the likes of which is rarely seen in the rental marketplace. Additionally, there is a fine oak paneled formal dining room, a windowed chef's kitchen with a private outdoor porch, and a powder room. Atop the full sized straight stairway are two spacious bedrooms, one a suite with attached dressing room, both with full baths, beautiful floors and wonderful restored woodwork. The apartment has central air, a dedicated heating plant and second level washer/dryer.
So...IF you love the Upper West Side's charm, IF you love classic architectural beauty, IF you simply love the luxury of working from home and you love the great outdoors...well then, you owe it to yourself to come and see this extraordinary new home. Available on a 2-year lease starting immediately; longer term possible; sorry no pets
. Asking $11,495/month.
See listing here
.
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Coutresy Urban Digs
Although there has been a significant increase in luxury inventory, inventory remains relatively low. In April of 2009, there were over 8,843 units available. Compare that to today where the number of available units is half, at 4,437.
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Wall Street in the age of Trump
The new president's deregulation plans could unleash
Wall Street growth and have big NYC real estate
ramifications, but will he self-sabotage?
Case in point: The Monday after Trump announced his
controversial travel ban - a move that prompted widespread protests at airports across the country and sent waves of panic across the globe - the Dow and S&P 500 logged their worst day since his victory. The market is still up since Trump's election, and when it comes to his overall deregulation push, Wall Street and the financial industry are largely enthusiastic.
And if Wall Street thrives, New York City real estate is very likely to benefit....
....This month, The Real Deal looked at the potential impact that looser Wall Street restrictions could have on several key areas of NYC's real estate market - office leasing, luxury condo sales and real estate finance, where the city's top investment banks all play a key role.
Not only are those banks a big source of funding for large development projects, they also provide mortgages to residential buyers across the market and take up office space in many of the city's trophy office towers. That's not to m
ention that many of their executives are also purchasing multimillion-dollar luxury condos for themselves.
Read the entire article here
.
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A Slow 4th Quarter for New York City Co-ops
Prices on large co-ops fall, while
 those on comparable condos jump
by Josh Barbanel
 The New York City co-op market was so slow in November and December that many brokers who typically move properties at a furious clip decided to take early holiday vacations instead, brokers said.
In all, there were fewer contracts signed on co-ops listed for $4 million or more in the fourth quarter of 2016 than in any fourth quarter in the last five years, said Donna Olshan, a Manhattan broker who tracks the luxury market.
As a result, inventory of unsold co-ops is piling up-and they are taking longer to sell. Total inventories jumped 20% in the fourth quarter compared with the same quarter in 2015, according to brokerage Brown Harris Stevens.
The weakness has led many sellers to cut asking prices by 10% to 15%, brokers said.
Overall the median price of a Manhattan co-op rose by 0.4% to $752,000 in the fourth quarter compared with the same quarter in 2015, according to a report prepared by Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel Inc., for brokerage Douglas Elliman.
But the same report found that the median price on larger, more expensive co-ops fell sharply. The median price of three-bedroom co-ops sold in the final three months of 2016 was $2.24 million, down 12% from the same period in 2015.
Sale prices of co-ops with four or more bedrooms were down 13% to $4.81 million in the fourth quarter of 2016 from the same quarter in 2015. By contrast, the median price of condominiums with four or more bedrooms was up 24% to $8.3 million during the same period.
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Seven
billion-dollar mega-projects that
will transfo
rm New York City by 2035
New York City has a number of ambitious development and infrastructure projects underway.
Manhattan's most recent transportation upgrade came in the form of the glistening,
$4.5 billion Second Avenue subway line
, which opened on January 1.
On the other side of the island, Hudson Yards - the
most expensive real estate development in American history - is under construction. And on an island in the East River, Cornell University is building
a glassy tech campus with classrooms, a hotel, restaurants, and shops for future graduate students. By the middle of this century, the city will look different, and will likely attract even more new residents and tourists than today.
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De Blasio concerned that Albany will try to add larger condos back into 421a
Some lawmakers have been pushing for an expansion by Kathryn Brenzel
Excerpt:
De Blasio noted that the tax abatement's revival seemed closer than ever, but he was concerned by the uncertainty of the costs that could be added to the city if more condo projects become eligible for the program.
The mayor - whose own proposal in 2015 excluded condos from 421a - also noted that real estate transactions dropped 15 percent in the first half of fiscal year 2017, compared to the same time the year prior. The number of approved residential construction permits
plunged dramatically in 2016, dropping 70 percent from 2015, when 421a was in effect.
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Abroad.... 
Brexit Makes Global Property Developer Wary About London Real Estate
by David M. Levitt & Oshrat Carmiel
New York is the world's most promising real estate market as global turmoil pushes more investors to the U.S. finance and media hub, according to the chief executive officer of developer Related Cos.
"I think the uncertainty around the world is forcing more and more capital here," Jeff Blau, whose company is based in New York, said Monday in an
interview on Bloomberg Television. "From an investor perspective, the market is still solid here. People are buying and moving office space."
Jeff Blau, CEO Related Cos.
New York is increasingly seen as
gaining ground in its long-time rivalry with London as a finance center with the U.K.'s impending withdrawal from the European Union. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO Lloyd Blankfein said in an interview last week that New York is "
already a bit of a gainer" from Brexit.
Related is the main developer of the $25 billion Hudson Yards project on Manhattan's far west side, which it calls the largest private real estate development in U.S. history. More than a quarter of the apartments at its
Fifteen Hudson Yards condo tower have sold, and companies such as BlackRock Inc. have agreed to relocate their offices to skyscrapers under construction at the site.
Brexit is making Related wary of London's luxury property market, Blau said. Related has "certainly" seen a drop in the pricing of high-end
London homes and has formed a joint venture to develop about 13,000 for-sale and rental units serving the city's "middle-market segment," he said.
Goldman Sachs is slowing down a previous decision to move operations to London to take advantage of its location that overlaps more easily with Asian and U.S. time zones, Blankfein said Jan. 19 in a Bloomberg Television interview from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
See interview
.
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On the rise...?
Mortgage rates rose this week, according to Bankrate's latest survey of large lenders.
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ramped up 14 basis points to 4.32 percent. The benchmark 15-year fixed-rate mortgage moved up 10 basis points to 3.51 percent.
A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percent.
The typical 30-year fixed-rate jumbo moved up 7 basis points to 4.31 percent. For the purposes of Bankrate's survey, a jumbo mortgage is a loan that is at least $650,000.
The average 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage increased 6 basis points to 3.51 percent. With a 5/1 ARM, the rate is fixed for five years and adjusted annually thereafter.
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Market Report Sales:
The Aggregate: 4th Quarter 2016
click here.
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Robert Rosenthal
The Food Humorist©, is a Manhattan born man-about-town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. Some can be fo
und
here
- Modern Food Man.
Robert Rosenthal earned a professional culinary degree while president of a top international ad agency. He performed stand-up in New York's hottest comedy clubs, hosted his own food shows on TV and radio and also writes for the Huffington Post, The Daily Beast and Advertising Age, which calls him "undoubtedly one of the industry's most colorful characters." As personal chef to his wife and kids, his handiwork can also be found at
Short Order Dad.
You Can't Spell Fatherhood Without 'F-O-O-D'
The benefits of family meals at home are undeniable. 'Short Order Dad' Rob Rosenthal explains.
For the first time in history, Americans spent more money going out to eat and drink last year than on groceries
. We are obsessed with food, from watching endless cooking competitions on television to Instagramming every dish we eat. We're just not that into making it. We spend less time cooking than any other industrialized nation on earth. This unfortunate reality has been aptly described as "the slow death of the home cooked meal."
More women are working, and consequently, cooking less. According to the US Census, 70% of mothers with kids at home are in the workforce. Although men have recently been assuming more of the domestic responsibilities than in the past, including food shopping, guys certainly haven't picked up the slack when it comes to preparing the meals. We seem to find the time when it comes to binge watching
House of Cards
, but don't apparently have enough of it to put a simple dinner on the table. When families do eat at home, it's often takeout food on the couch, in front of the TV, while
watching cooking shows.
That is actual
food porn -
watching someone else do it while you pleasure yourself. [some serious advice follows] Read on.
Rob's book which I HIGHLY recommend for a Dad like myself.
There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any
time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting food at home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Order here.
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The Hottest Restaurants in Manhattan Right Now, November 2016
While you were very busy politely disagreeing with your family members about politics and pondering whether or not this is the year to start drinking Scott Disick's favorite skinny tea, a lot of things happened in New York: namely, lots of great new places to eat and drink opened. So before you transform into the low-carb, highly active 2017 version of yourself, head to these places you may have missed. Read more.
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Tonight, at Thomas Keller's Per Se, fine diners will dig into a nine-course meal that includes a dish called "Oysters and Pearls" and costs the same as your electric bill during a heat wave. Meanwhile, about 10 blocks away, the Halal Guys street cart will feed hefty portions of chicken over rice to hundreds of people, each for the price of a Starbucks latte. That's New York City for you: a town that prizes the high-end and the low-brow, but, above all, good taste.
While you could spend your whole life trying to eat your way through those dishes, finding the city's most significant -- the ones that represent that good taste -- is actually not that infeasible.
To come up with our definitive list of the 100 most important dishes in NYC, we polled some of our favorite NYC chefs, prominent New Yorkers, and our food-obsessed colleagues here at Thrillist, about the local foods that matter the most. We then whittled that list down to those dishes that truly made the greatest impact on the city's dining culture, or otherwise helped to define what makes the NYC experience so unique and special in the first place. The list includes foods that exemplify NYC cooking at the highest levels, foods with history, foods that changed perceptions -- as well as foods from your local bodega. These are the 100 most important dishes in NYC.
Read More.
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8 Manhattan pads that appeared on the big screen
Since the beginning of cinema, New York City has lent its iconic skyline, hurried streets and imposing buildings to films of all genres. From the Busby Berkeley musicals of the 1930s to some of the best of Woody Allen's oeuvre, filmmakers turned to the city as the ultimate backdrop to tell their stories.
Often, these movies were set within the home -- think Patrick Bateman's gleaming apartment in "American Psycho." Sadly, most of these fictional homes were built on sound stages, with quick pans of the building's exterior used as device to ground these apartments in reality.
Some filmmakers, however, took advantage of the city's real real estate. The Real Deal put together a selection of movies filmed on location in New York City apartments. Courtesy: The Real Deal.
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At Town you will receive access to our own on-site Concierge, powered by
Luxury Attaché
.
They are the premiere lifestyle management company offering day-to-day assistance and solutions to our clients. They routinely advise on the most cutting-edge cultural experiences, including but not limited to: securing reservations at coveted restaurants and nightlife venues, planning client entertainment outings, coordinating on- and off-site events, assisting with gift purchasing, and planning international travel. True luxury is about having both time and convenience - both of which are achieved through our partnership with Luxury Attaché.
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Roberto Cabrera -
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
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TOWN
110 Fifth Avenue, 6th FL
New York, NY 10011
P: 646.998.7445
F:
646.738.7496
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Disclaimer: What is contained here is not meant or construed to be the opinion, common practice or policies of any residential real estate firm. This is simply what I've experienced to be common practice within the residential real estate market in Manhattan over the past sixteen years. This is meant to be informative, enlightening and hopefully enjoyable.
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Copyright © 2015 - Roberto Cabrera - Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker. All Rights Reserved.
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