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New York City Real Estate Newsletter
Q3 2015
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"What's actually going on out there?"
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The content I provide aims to be informative and reflective of the pulse of what is truly happening in our overwhelmingly unique and nuanced marketplace, while still being entertaining. I do hope you enjoy it and am interested in any feedback or suggestions you might have for future issues. Thank you for reading.
"...man about TOWN"
(click on the photo above to view my promotional video)
* Recognized this month by New York Magazine &
Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished
real estate professionals in New York City."
* Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best
Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.
* Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the
Upper West Side over $10M. (StreetEasy)
* Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
Your best investment is often in the broker you choose. With Manhattan's palpable level of competitiveness, my clients have considered me their
hidden-hand. My nearly 18 years of experience afford me the expertise to pull back the curtain and reveal the circumstances as they are and the possibilities that exist.
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Even Don Draper Can Dream!
This newly renovated one-bedroom is set in one of Lower Fifth Avenue's most sought-after residential buildings. Boasting prime city views and an unbeatable location, the spacious apartment has been meticulously renovated and custom crafted throughout. A gracious entry foyer leads into the open-plan living/dining room, a beautiful space with views out over the historic First Presbyterian Church.
The windowed open kitchen includes a sit-down counter where the range is seamlessly built into a granite base, plus stylish wooden cabinets, recessed lighting, and stainless steel appliances including a Sub-Zero refrigerator, U-line wine fridge, Verona oven, and Miele stove and dishwasher. The large sunny bedroom has a built-in home office space, along with two closets, while there is a dressing area with two more closets outside the luxurious bath.
The lovely hardwood floors and crown/baseboard molding that run throughout lend a historic old New York ambiance, complemented by lots of sunlight. From paneled doors and custom blinds to built-in speakers in all four corners of the living room, no detail has been overlooked in this magnificent modern home.
41 Fifth A
venue, a highly desired full-service Rosario Candela cooperative built in 1929, offers the convenience of a part-
time doorman (from 4 PM-midnight) and a full-time elevator operator, bike storage, fabulous common roof deck with sweeping city panoramic views, and common storage. Its location, on the "Gold Coast," in the heart of the Greenwich Village, is unbeatable, surrounded by the enchanting tree-lined blocks that make the village so special. Th
e building is close to all major subway lines at Union Square, just steps from Washington Square Park, and right next to some of the finest dining and shopping boutiques in the city. 75% financing allowed. Pet friendly.
Asking $1,545,000
Also Exclusively Represented:
341 West 84th Street -
Upper West Side Townhouse
Enjoy the stately lifestyle of the Upper West Side in this beautiful home, located in the Riverside-West End Historic District, on one of the neighborhood's truly magical park blocks. Originally designed and constructed by George F. Pelham circa 1899, this classic six-level home has been wonderfully restored and maintained. And while it is a two-family house, comprised of an owner's quadruplex and an additional ground-floor duplex, it is currently being graciously used as a single family residence. The entire home will be delivered vacant. Click here to see full listing information.
Asking $8.795M
37 Warren Street # 2A -
Tribeca Loft
This is a rare opportunity to own a corner two-bedroom, two-bath home at the prestigious Warren Lofts in the heart of Tribeca. Completed just three years ago after a painstaking renovation of this classic 1930s Art Deco building that once housed a flower seed company, the scale of this 1,623-square-foot loft is accentuated by 10-foot ceilings and the open-plan living-dining-kitchen space. Six windows with northern and eastern exposures flood the room with light and city views while 5-inch dark oak floors anchor the space beautifully. Click here to see full listing information.
Asking $2.895M
875 Fifth Avenue # 14G
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Elegant One Bedroom with Private Terrace on Fifth Avenue
This generously proportioned, high floor one bedroom has a large 40-foot long private terrace with east views - perfect for entertaining or for use as your own private sanctuary. A gracious foyer leads to a separate dining room and a spacious living room each with high ceilings and large windows that bathe the apartment with sun. The apartment has two renovated full bathrooms and a modern kitchen with Sub-Zero, Miele and Gaggenau appliances including a wine refrigerator. It has generous and efficient closets, including a cedar closet in the bedroom suite. The apartment comes with its own separate storage bin.
Click here to see more. Asking $1.745M
310 Riverside Drive # 1712
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Classic Studio
Bright and commodious studio in the incomparable Masters Building, a Prewar Art Deco gem on Riverside Drive designed by Harvey Wiley Corbett. This home offers views to the North...and a small sliver of the Hudson River to the West. Additionally the home offers an ample sized bathroom and two closets, one of which is an enormous walk-in.
Click here to see full listing information.
Asking $339K
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Better Times are Ahead
"By Labor Day in America, you could sense the tense nerves
behind the smiles at social gatherings."
Macro-Economic outlook from Vice Chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners
EXCERPT: The economy is still on a path toward better than 2% real GDP growth. Remember, the second quarter surprised everyone with real growth of 3.7% (now revised to 3.9%). The September decision by the Federal Reserve to refrain from raising short-term interest rates reflects the weak recent data on the U.S. economy as well as the uncertainties abroad. If the Fed tightened and markets around the world went into a sharp decline, the Fed would be blamed for it. If the markets declined as they have without a change in Fed policy, the Fed would be able to claim its position was a neutral factor. In the current situation, the failure to raise rates was interpreted as a negative opinion on the U.S. economic outlook. Janet Yellen would have liked to "normalize" rates, but she felt the markets were too vulnerable for a move now, and the market has read her prudence as pessimism. Going back to 1953, the market has never peaked until after the Fed has begun raising interest rates, and on average the high is reached 30 months after the first increase in rates, according to Omega Advisors.
Read more.
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So everyone's asking...
"What's really going on out there?...."
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The third quarter of 2015 saw a quarter-to-quarter consolidation of asset prices, as buyers and sellers in the Manhattan marketplace down shifted to the speed of a traditional summer season. Year-over-year, however, Manhattan prices continue to edge higher. Year-over-year median price per square foot rose nearly 6%, continuing the positive trend that started at the trough of the credit crisis over five years ago. While the sales figures are coming in at record levels, today's market is facing some macro-economic headwinds and signs of price growth fatigue after years of strong gains.
As we begin the fourth quarter, leverage continues to favor the sell-side albeit at a weaker pace from
earlier 2015; a trend that has remained in place for the past 18+ months. The average price of a Manhattan condo decreased 3% compared to the second quarter of 2015, from $2,420,826 to $2,340,454; while still increasing 7.4% year-over-year. Median days on the market for condominiums remained essentially unchanged at 48 days despite the recent slowdown.
Source: UrbanDigs (click photo to enlarge chart)
The average price for a Manhattan coop during the third quarter was $1,207,761, compared to $1,335,984 in the second quarter of 2015; a decline of 9.6%. Looking at the less volatile year-over-year figures, the average price for coops dipped 3%, indicating consolidation at healthy levels. Average price per square foot trends remained positive year-over-year, gaining nearly 12%, even as they declined 2.5% from the previous quarter.
We are in a very healthy market and it looks sustainable, if not even better yet. Relatively low interest rates, new neighborhood options and a more moderate pace to the marketplace will be the foundation. One of the crucial elements to this healthy approach toward parody among buyers and sellers is the continual rise in inventory/supply, up 31% year-to-date.
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Other market stories...
about Town:
Drilling down on the metrics economists are watching to determine
when the NYC market has topped out
H
indsight is a precious thing, but foresight may be easier on the bottom line.
In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, it was easy to spot the red flags that were screaming of an impending market collapse.
But are those warning signs visible before every downturn?
This month, The Real Deal examined key metrics across the New York City real estate industry to ascertain whether the market may be at its peak - or if it's approaching that point.
What we found were several trends pointing to a leveling off, if not yet an outright peak. Despite rising residential price on the whole, for example, there's also been stagnant inventory growth, an increase in the rental market's vacancy rate, a recent drop-off in the overall number of sales and a decline in the average asking price per square foot. Commercial deals, meanwhile, are growing, but not as quickly as they once did. Read more.
As most of you know, I believe Townhouses are Manhattan's Beachfront Property...
A Profitabl
e Flip on the Upper West Side
by Vivian Marino New York Times
A fully renovated five-story townhouse on a tree-lined block on the Upper West Side, with an abundance of outdoor space and a quick stroll from Central Park, sold for $16,250,000 and was the most expensive closed sale of the week, according to
city records.
The building at 38 West 87th Street, between Central Park West and Columbus Avenue, was converted from a 10-unit apartment house back to a single residence by Warren Malone, a real estate investor from Jupiter, Fla., and two other investors operating under the limited liability company PVP 38W87 Company. The partnership, which focuses on property on the Upper West Side, bought the house in December 2011 for
$5.15 million.
Read more
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Members Only . . . is "TriBeCa-stan"
* getting some love?
*
phrase coined by Bradley White for the area east of Tribeca that's yearned for initiation into the club.
Tribeca expands East
by Rich Bockmann for the Real Deal
New condos and hotels spring up on a four-block stretch once home to city office workers
 The stretch of Broadway between Walker and Worth streets may technically be part of Tribeca, but it is not the land of celebrity chefs and couture kids-clothing boutiques.
Indeed, the souvenir shops and bodegas that line the strip are something of a final frontier in Manhattan. But that down-market status is quickly changing. There are nearly a dozen development projects either recently completed or in the works in what is now known in the real estate lexicon as "East Tribeca."
"The market in general has moved to the east and south," said Avison Young broker Jason Meister, who was part of a team that sold 93 Worth Street for $50 million in 2011. "When you have robust development, inventory starts to get tight. What you're seeing is the boundary of Tribeca moving east."
More than 600 condos and hotel rooms are set to come online on the four-block strip in the next few years. And the streetscape is already morphing.
Meister, who is marketing a 3,000-square-foot retail condo at the base of an older residential conversion at 356 Broadway, said trendier shops are starting to show more interest in the area, pointing to the neighborhood's latest newcomer: a fashionable Gourmet Garage supermarket at 366 Broadway.
Read more to see the pipeline of projects.
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Why Buying a Home Is a Smart Investment for Millennials
By Amanda Falcone
Millennials have been reluctant to buy homes because of a volatile job market and high student debt.
As homeownership rates for young Americans are trending upward, financial and real estate experts are hopeful more millennials will soon recognize the benefits of owning a home.
Millennials are swarmed with investing advice - start saving early, take advantage of your employer's 401(k) match and for heaven's sake, dump those high-interest credit cards! But for many who are looking to build a retirement nest egg, financial advisors say purchasing a home is one of the best investments millennials can make.
"Buying a home is one of the smartest financial decisions you can make as early as your 20s," says Riccardo Ravasini, managing director of Rava Realty, who handles properties in New York and Florida, "because it is inflation-protected and a physical asset that doesn't disappear like stocks can do."
Read more
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Dissension at the Federal Reserve causing volatility.
Fed splits fuel doubts on 2015 rate rise
The divisions burst into the open when two
Fed board members
signalled this week that they oppose a near-term increase in
interest rates
, questioning the approach adopted by chair Janet Yellen amid divisions over the outlook for inflation.
Read more.
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H
istorical perspective charts on rates. The first chart shows rates over the past three years, showing an upward trend. The second gives a more substantial 10 year perspective on their relatively low levels.
30-Year Mortgage Trend (1970-2015)
Sources: Mortgage-X
Freddie Mac : Monthly Average Commitment Rate And Points On 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages
Source Freddie Mac
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Market Report Sales:
The Aggregate: 3rd Quarter 2015
click here.
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Robert Rosenthal
The Food Humorist©, is a Manhattan born man-about-town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. Some can be fo
und
here
- Modern Food Man.
Robert Rosenthal earned a professional culinary degree while president of a top international ad agency. He performed stand-up in New York's hottest comedy clubs, hosted his own food shows on TV and radio and also writes for the Huffington Post, The Daily Beast and Advertising Age, which calls him "undoubtedly one of the industry's most colorful characters." As personal chef to his wife and kids, his handiwork can also be found at
Short Order Dad.
Short Order Dad
Rob Rosenthal brings you fast, tasty ideas that will make the whole family happy
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Recipient of the James Beard Foundation Award for "Outstanding Wine Service" 2003 and former Sommelier of Daniel.
The Undiscovered Gem of Chassagne-Montrache...Paul Pillot
"I taste hundreds of wines in burgundy week, and have to scramble through my note
s to check in with my views on many of them, but
with Domaine Paul Pillot I remember where the table was
in the room,
and where I was standing as the wine hit my tastebuds. You
just do with wines like that." - Victoria Moore, The Telegraph
It's hard to believe there is still undiscovered country in Burgundy these days. Without a doubt, the Cote D'Or is the most scrutinized wine region on the planet. From vineyard to vigneron, there are just too many writers, blogs, and interested to parties to miss a trick.
Or so I thought until I discovered Paul Pillot. Read more.
To read and learn more, see Jean-Luc's site:
Le Dû Wines - Rated # 1 Wine Store by Zagat's.
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At Town you will receive access to our own on-site Concierge, powered by
Luxury Attaché
.
They are the premiere lifestyle management company offering day-to-day assistance and solutions to our clients. They routinely advise on the most cutting-edge cultural experiences, including but not limited to: securing reservations at coveted restaurants and nightlife venues, planning client entertainment outings, coordinating on- and off-site events, assisting with gift purchasing, and planning international travel. True luxury is about having both time and convenience - both of which are achieved through our partnership with Luxury Attaché.
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Roberto Cabrera -
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
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TOWN
110 Fifth Avenue, 6th FL
New York, NY 10011
P: 646.998.7445
F:
646.738.7496
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Disclaimer: What is contained here is not meant or construed to be the opinion, common practice or policies of any residential real estate firm. This is simply what I've experienced to be common practice within the residential real estate market in Manhattan over the past sixteen years. This is meant to be informative, enlightening and hopefully enjoyable.
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Copyright © 2015 - Roberto Cabrera - Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker. All Rights Reserved.
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