Sentiment among global businesses remains strong, unshaken by the recent volatility in global financial markets. Close to one-half of respondents to the survey say that current business conditions are improving and that they will be even better by this summer. Negative responses to the survey questions remain close to a record low. Business confidence is consistent with a global economy that is expanding well above its potential.

U.S. International Trade Deficit: +$3.5 b

The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in January and this doesn't bode well for first quarter GDP growth and won't sit well with the Trump administration. The nominal trade deficit widened from a revised $53.9 billion in December (previously $53.1 billion). The deficit came in worse than either we or the consensus anticipated. Nominal exports fell 1.3%; imports were little changed. Utah's exports were $0.526 billion for Manufactured Commodities and 0.060 billion for Services or just ½ of 1% of the U.S. Total.  More ...  www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm

Composite Leading Indicators: 100.1

The OECD composite leading indicator stayed steady at 100.1 in January but improved from the 99.9 average for last year. The headline therefore does not point to any notable change in the OECD member economies. The gauge for the euro zone held at 100.6 for the fourth consecutive month. Germany shed 0.1 point from a month earlier, but such a small change is no cause for alarm. The U.S. gauge stayed stable at 99.9. The leading indicator for Russia printed at a solid 101.5, from the downwardly revised 101.3 in the previous month, indicating a firming recovery.

Beige Book: +2.70
The Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index posted a rating of 158 for March's edition of the Federal Reserve report, increasing for the fourth consecutive Beige Book. March's reassuring reading provides additional evidence that the U.S. regional economies are making strides and the reading is more than 40 points higher than March 2017's reading of 117. Regionally, the index held steady in nine Federal Reserve districts, increased in the Chicago and Minneapolis districts, and fell in the New York district.

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index: -1.11

Financial stress conditions tightened last week following a down week on Wall Street. The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index fell to -1.11 but remains significantly elevated relative to the past several months. The S&P 500 declined 2%, reversing recent gains. The recovery also increased equity volatility, with the VIX rising 19% to 19.6. Interest rates ticked slightly lower, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury declining 2 basis points.

Moody's Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index : -0.1

Policy uncertainty slipped but remains elevated. The good news is that the economic costs have been minimal, as elevated uncertainty has occurred through the expansion and businesses appear to have adjusted. Still, a significant increase in policy uncertainty, if it were to occur, shouldn't be ignored, because it could weigh on financial market conditions and hurt business investment. The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index was essentially unchanged at 107.3 in the week ended March 2.

Productivity and Costs: 0%

There was a small upward revision to fourth quarter U.S. GDP, but it doesn't alter the trend, which remains poor. Productivity is now shown to have been unchanged in the fourth quarter (previously -0.1% at an annualized rate). This leaves productivity up 1.1% on a year-ago basis. After falling for two consecutive quarters, nonfarm unit labor costs are now shown to have risen 2.5% at an annualized rate in the fourth quarter (previously 2%).

ADP National Employment Report: 235,000

The labor market remains on cruise control. In February, private-sector payrolls expanded by 235,000 on net. This furthers a string of outsize job gains that have accrued as the economic expansion persists. The pace of growth averaged a strong 212,000 jobs per month in 2017, and 2018 is setting up to be another stellar year for the labor market. Goods producers have made steady progress, adding 37,000 jobs in February. Meanwhile, service providers are driving the majority of growth; payrolls increased by 198,000.

Challenger Report: 35,369

The labor market engine is running smoothly. Employers announced only 35,369 job cuts in February, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas' compilation. Job cut announcements in February were down 20% from January and 4.3% from February 2017. Across industries, cuts were highest in retail, which announced 6,106 cuts over the month. Overall, job cut announcements are low historically as companies hold onto their workers and hiring announcements remain elevated.

Jobless Claims: +21,000

The labor market shows no signs of slowing. Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits rose 21,000 from the previous week's unrevised level to 231,000 in the week ended March 3. The increase is not cause for concern as the previous week's level was the lowest since late 1969 and new filings remain low historically. The four-week moving average rose 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised average to 222,500. Continuing claims fell 64,000 from the previous week's revised level to 1.87 million in the week ended February 24, and the insured unemployment rate slid 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate to 1.3%.

ISM Nonmanufacturing Index: -0.4

The ISM surveys for February were solid, suggesting the breadth of growth remains fairly broad. The ISM nonmanufacturing survey's composite index slipped from 59.9 in January to 59.5 in February. Despite the decline, the index remains above its fourth quarter average of 57.7. The details were mixed as new orders and business activity increased. The big disappointment was employment, which dropped from 61.6 in January to 55. Overall, the ISM survey doesn't alter the risks to our estimate of first quarter GDP growth, currently tracking 2.4% at an annualized rate. Survey-based and hard data don't always tell the same story, and the ISM surveys capture changes in both economic conditions and sentiment.

Factory Orders (M3): -1.4%

Factory orders took a step back in January, shedding 1.4%, as durable goods orders suffered the largest decline since July. The weakness was broader than we expected, and the nondefense aircraft and defense segments were mainly to blame, and there were other soft spots. That included the important core capital goods segment, where orders fell 0.3%, though the change for December was revised upward. Corresponding shipments also shed 0.1%, marking the first decline in a year. Shipments in nondurable goods are trending consistently higher thanks to stronger demand, adding 0.8% in January. Inventories increased 0.3%.

Semiconductor Billings: -1%

Global semiconductor sales had an impressive start to the year. In January, the three-month moving average of global sales reached $37.6 billion. Though this marks a 1% decline from December, sales are up 22.7% from January 2017. Furthermore, this is the best January performance on record and the outlook remains strong.

Quarterly Services Survey: +5%

The Quarterly Services Survey report bodes well for revisions to fourth quarter consumer spending. U.S. selected services' total revenue for the fourth quarter was up 5% from the fourth quarter of 2016 on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Information services revenue rose 6.5%, professional services grew slightly by 1.3%, and administrative services gained 6.5% on a year-ago basis.

Financial Accounts - Nonfinancial Corporate: +$.60tril

Nonfinancial corporate business balance sheets improved in the fourth quarter. Net worth of nonfinancial corporations rose 2.6% from the prior quarter, marking the third straight quarterly gain. A strengthening global economy coupled with fiscal stimulus in the U.S. will provide tailwinds for corporate profits. Despite strong prospects and elevated consumer and business optimism, capital expenditures by nonfinancial corporate business remain soft.

Financial Accounts - Households: +$2.1 tril

Household wealth grew strongly again in the fourth quarter and continued to support consumer spending. Wealth increased $2.1 trillion to $98.7 trillion, following a downwardly revised $1.6 trillion gain in the third quarter. Year-over-year growth accelerated to 7.8%. Growth in components of wealth tied to the stock market and housing wealth accelerated from the third quarter. Household liability growth increased as well.

Consumer Credit (G19):+ $13.9 bil

Headline consumer credit is off to a slow start in 2018. January's gain-$13.9 billion-came in well below the consensus projection of a $17.8 billion build. The nonrevolving segment was responsible for the lion's share of the increase, growing by $13.2 billion. Revolving credit advanced by only about $700 million.

MBA Mortgage Applications Survey: +0.3%

Mortgage applications were up modestly last week, and interest rate movements were mixed. The total index was up 0.3% from the prior week. Refinancing rose by 1.5%. Purchases decreased by 0.5%.

CoreLogic Home Price Index: +6.6%

The CoreLogic Home Price Index rose 6.6% year over year in January and 0.5% over the previous month. For the first time in 13 years, the index began 2018 at a record high.

Oil Inventories: +2.4 mil barrels

An increase in crude oil inventories roughly in line with industry analyst expectations will have little effect on oil prices. Crude oil inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels in the week ended March 2, just ahead of analyst predictions of a 2.2-million barrel build. Gasoline inventories fell by 800,000 barrels, just above analyst expectations of a 500,000-barrel decrease. Distillate inventories fell by 600,000 barrels, roughly in line with analyst predictions of a 684,000-barrel decline. Refinery capacity utilization rose to 88% from 87.8%, close to analyst expectations of a 0.01-percentage point uptick. Total U.S. oil demand was 3.4% higher than a year earlier.

Natural Gas Storage Report: -57 bil cubic feet

Natural gas inventories fell by 57 billion cubic feet during the week ended March 2, falling just shy of expectations of a 59 bcf drawdown. Implied flow also fell by 57 bcf. This report is not expected to materially impact natural gas prices.