8200 Berry Avenue, Suite 140| Sacramento | CA | 95828
(916) 714-7368 www.trinityfresh.com 

Market Alert 
10.3.16

 



Weather 
A cold front brings below-average mid-week temperatures to the Salinas Valley, with highs in the mid 60s, accompanied by strong winds. A late-week warming trend will send temperatures into the mid 80s by Sunday, with plentiful sunshine. The high for Fresno will register 97 on Monday, well above the seasonal average. Southern California coastal districts will also experience seasonally warm temperatures, with highs reaching 85 in Oxnard on Monday. Highs will hit 100 in Central Baja California, as well as Northern Mainland Mexico, next week. The highlands of Michoacan, located in the avocado growing region of Southern Mexico, will see highs in the 70s with daily thundershowers. Warm, cloudy conditions will continue through the weekend with highs in the low 80s in Benton Harbor, Michigan.

Avocados:  EXTREME MARKET Industry supplies are tightening up again and the market is going up and up. This is a result of the lack of fruit coming out of Mexico, and the California season coming to an end sooner than expected. Peru's season will be coming to an end sometime in mid-September. Mexico simply does not have the volume to pick up what we are losing out of California until their normal crop is mature enough for harvesting. Mexico will soon be the only supplier for the US and demand is heavily outpacing supply. We are also starting to see a shift in the size coming out of Mexico due to the rain over the past few weeks, as we are seeing less small fruit and a higher percentage of 48's and larger. 

Over the next 6+ weeks all avocados are going to be very tight with the market becoming even more volatile. We are doing everything in our power to secure as much fruit as possible to cover all orders. We are working hard to get enough fruit to our FDC's so that we can get the fruit to spec prior to loading. This will be a challenge and we appreciate everyone's patience and understanding. 

The pricing gap between 60's and 48's is going to diminish during this timeframe. We are already seeing smaller fruit $8-$10 higher than it was last week, due to the lack of small fruit availability.

Bananas: There is an unseasonably strong demand that has developed for growers in Central America, as supply has been disrupted from the Philippines.

Blueberries: West Coast berries are getting tighter and we are seeing prices starting to rise. Florida and Georgia have finished their seasons. Fruit is smaller and we are seeing some mold issues. Volume will drop significantly in September during harvest transition.

Blackberries: We are currently seeing steady supplies with good quality and a great flavor profile. The season in Central Mexico is winding down. Volume will drop significantly in September during harvest transition.

Raspberries: Steady volume. Quality has been consistent. Oxnard remains the primary district, with Santa Maria and Watsonville-Salinas volume trending higher. 

Strawberries: The market is holding steady. Prices are better. Quality is average.

Grapefruit: Grapefruit is done. Texas and Florida should start at the end of October. Expect very light supply or potentially no supply, with very high prices.

Lemons: We are seeing short supply on 200's with high prices. Typically, at this time of year there is not a lot of big fruit available, and we find ourselves in short supply. We need to size down by at least one size and focus on 165's and 200's. This year, due to the rain this past winter and the favorable growing conditions, all we have is big fruit. We are seeing this market slowly improve and expect to see it get better in the next few weeks. Quality is improving and should be good by October.

Limes (Persian):  Quality is good. Prices are higher. The 110 & 150ct availability remains tighter than other sizes. Color and quality are very good at this time.

Oranges: Valencia's have been available in good supply, with the best value on 88's and larger. Supplies are tighter on small sizes due to "back to school" and juicing demands. Flavor and juice content are very good. Quality is poor.

Pineapple: Demand is good and prices are stable. Market is very active. Please book ahead of time, as product is tight. Due to rain and flooding, pineapple growers were unable to plant on schedule, causing a shortage in supply. We expect this to catch up in about 6 weeks.

Green and Red Leaf: Supplies on green leaf are normal. We are seeing the occasional fringe burn. Demand is normal for red leaf with good quality.

Iceberg Lettuce: We expect it to remain steady due to good weather and lower acres. Overall quality is good.

Romaine: Supplies are steady and demand is good. There have been some reports of insects.

Romaine Hearts: Supplies are plentiful!! Demand has slowed with quality remaining good.

Green and Red Bell Peppers: Recent price strength for green bell peppers has subsided, with growers in California coming into late season production stronger than anticipated. Red bells will be in good supply from Central & Southern California through late September. Prices are firm for green bells in Michigan, as the season is winding down; quality varies among shippers. The harvest in South Carolina is just getting started, with Georgia to follow in early October.

Cucumbers: Declining production in Michigan and New Jersey has been offset by the new crop harvest in North Carolina and Georgia; prices have eased. Volume in Baja California is beginning to increase, supplemented by new crop harvesting in Western Mainland Mexico.

English Cucumber: Supply has declined for growers in Eastern Canada and prices have advanced sharply. Moderate production continues for growers in the coastal districts of Central California.

Green Beans: Extremely tight availability continues in Southern, Central, & Baja California. Moderate production in New York and Tennessee.

Zucchini & Yellow Squash: Zucchini is in plentiful supply in North Carolina and Georgia, while yellow squash is available at comparatively higher prices. Zucchini and yellow squash are currently available in numerous districts in the West, including Central California coastal districts, the Central San Joaquin Valley, Baja California, and Northern Mainland Mexico (Nogales).

Herbs: Supplies of fresh herbs are looking really good as we head into the end of September. We are starting to transition into our fields in Mexico for BASIL as the local crop has had to deal with a long hot summer. Supplies are steady on the basil and quality is starting off very strong. CHERVIL, MARJORAM, & OREGANO are still recovering from the heat in the Southern California growing regions. With the cooler weather around the growing region, the demand for ROSEMARY, SAGE, and THYME is picking up.

Opal Basil: Supplies and quality are good. 

Tarragon:  Supplies are limited and quality is fair.

Chives: Supplies and quality are good. 

Mint: Supplies and quality are good. 

Savory: Supplies are limited. Quality is fair.

Cilantro: We are seeing elevated prices on cilantro as well as some quality issues, such as yellowing.

Sorrel: Supplies are steady. Quality is good.

Dill: Supplies and quality are good.

Bay Leaves: Supplies and quality are good.

Lemongrass:  Supplies and quality are good.
 
Marjoram: Supplies are steady. Quality is good.

Oregano: Supplies and quality are good.

I talian parsley: Supplies and quality are good.

Rosemary: Supplies are limited. Quality is good.

Sage: Supplies and quality are good.

Savory: Supplies are limited. Quality is fair.

Thyme: Supplies and quality are good.

Lavender: Supplies and quality are good.

Mangos: Supply is much abundant and prices are low. Quality is good.

Cantaloupe: Demand has been stagnant on the cantaloupe which has caused the market to remain on the lower side, but this should begin changing later this week. Some growers have been curtailing their harvests, especially on smaller sized melons. There are growers that are peaking on larger fruit, while others have a steady supply of 12/15s. We anticipate the 9ct market to start improving with overall volume decreasing as we get into the latter part of the Westside deal. The Arizona region is scheduled to start their fall season the first week of October but there has been some rain in the area which may affect the early crop.

Honeydew: production is in full swing with all regions currently producing. Larger fruit may improve slightly with heavier volumes on the mid-range sizing (6/8s). Honeydew quality remains very good with good external and internal conditions.

Watermelon: Quality is good and prices are at a "normal" point for this time of year. Seeded watermelons are available

Artichokes:  We expect good supplies of Artichokes this week. Supplies industry-wide have increased. Better volume expected for the next few weeks. Demand is off a bit, typical for the summer. Prices are steady to lower on some sizes.

Arugula: Supplies of both baby and wild arugula are good. Quality is fair but improving.

Asparagus: Once again, we are seeing the bigger sizes tighten up. Prices are back up. Quality is good.

Bok Choy: Availability is good. 

Broccoli: Supplies are much lower this week. Prices are steady. Good green color and texture.

Brussel Sprouts: The market continues to advance. Supplies are very tight. Quality is good, although there is occasional insect damage and discoloration. Prices are high and escalated.

Carrots: Great quality and good supply!

Cauliflower: Supplies are good. Quality is good with good weight, white to creamy color.

Celery: Supplies are plentiful with many growers in Salinas now. Quality is good and prices are low. Some light insect damage and light dirt in bottom of stalks.

Corn/ Sweet Corn: Midwest Sweet is still available but the prices have gone up and stabilized. Quality is still good but production will be finishing up over the next few weeks. New Crop Georgia Sweet Corn will be starting next week, with Florida to follow soon after. Colorado Corn is still available, finishing up in October.

Fennel: Supplies for the week will be good. 

Garlic: California is currently harvesting their crops, however the CA crop is still very tight. We have more demand than we do supply. We expect this market to remain pretty tight, as we are simply not producing as much US garlic as the market demands. This market's future is currently up in the air. We will know more as Chinese garlic comes into play.

Ginger: Chinese ginger is in good supply and offered at a substantial discount when compared to ginger from Brazil. 

Green Cabbage: Green Cabbage is steady this week. Prices are climbing a bit. Quality is good with some reports of insects.

Green Onions: The market is seeing a lot of quality issues in green onions. We are seeing a very high percentage of smalls being packed. Prices are moderate and supplies are getting tighter.

Kale (Green): Demand is steady and quality is very good.

Mache: Adequate availability. 

Napa: Supplies are lower. Demand is strong with lower prices. Quality is good with increased reports of internal defects, primarily with seeders. Prices are high.

Parsley (Curly, Italian): Prices are normal and quality is excellent.

Radishes: Market is slightly below average due to lighter supplies out of Mexico. Quality is average with reports of insect damage.

Red Cabbage: Quality and sizing has been great, with good color. Overall, the market is strong.

Snow and Sugar Snap Peas: Snow and sugar snap peas are still in high demand; quality is good. 

Spinach (bunched): Supply is good and demand is strong. Quality has improved. We are still seeing some sun scalding and tip burn however, we expect to see an improvement this week. There have been some reports of insects, but this is getting better.

Spinach (baby): Baby Spinach and Clipped Spinach supplies are light. Quality is fair to good. Prices are good. Some reports of insects.

Spring mix: Lots of product and quality is good.

Onions:  The onion market seems to have stabilized on all colors for now, as New Mexico and CA have finished for the season. The size profiles are getting larger, so we are seeing better availability on all sizes. More growers in the northwest continue to start but with the other regions finishing, supply and demand have levelled off. Growers will begin to fill their storages over the next several weeks and will also begin to ship railcars of onions when they get close to being dried out enough.

Potatoes (Idaho): Growers are still exclusively shipping new crop Norkotahs at the moment. We will start seeing the first Burbanks being shipped next week in very small volumes. By the second week of October, there will be plenty of Burbanks shipping out. We are currently seeing supply exceed demand on larger size cartons, with good general availability across the board on all size count cartons. Consumer bag potatoes are in good demand and are exceeding supplies at the moment as growers are not generating very many A Sized and Non-A Sized potatoes.

Tomatoes:  

East

  • Rounds - Supplies in the east are lighter this week due to production GAPS and shortfalls. FOB prices are slightly higher this week. The quality is beginning to decline due to weather-related pressure. We should expect to see some fall tomato production in 2-3 weeks
  • Roma - Supplies have improved, however, we are still experiencing challenges with quality and color. Expect to see increases in volume over the next 14 days. 
  • Grapes - Supplies are a tad better this week, however FOB prices will remain high. Quality remains good.
  • Cherries- Supplies are lighter this week and FOB prices are higher. Quality remains good.

West/Mexico 
Too early to evaluate damage caused in the Baja by Hurricane Newton or how that will affect fall tomato harvests.
 
  • Rounds - Vine-ripe production is light this week crossing from Baja and Central Mexico. California mature green growers are all seeing lighter production, a result of bloom drop due to the heat wave in July. Quality and color will be an ongoing issue week to week, due to weather-related impacts as well as overall decreases in volume related to the summer crop winding down.
  • Romas - Supplies continue to come out of Baja and California, however they will be lighter than normal due to recent weather events in Baja. As supplies improve somewhat in the east, we are seeing a slight dip in price. Expect to see ongoing color issues.
  • Grapes - Supplies will remain tight across all Mexican shipping points. Expect to see elevated pricing and prorating over the next several weeks.
  • Cherries - FOB prices are higher and quality is good.
Grapes: The new crop harvest is underway in Mainland Mexico and the Coachella Valley of California. Flame seedless are in good supply, with tight availability for premium quality green seedless (Sugarone Variety) grapes.

Peaches: Light supply.

White Peaches: Light supplies.

Nectarines: Limited availability.

White Nectarines: Limited availability.

Apricots: Limited supply

Plums: Red and Black plums are in limited supply. The early season harvest is producing heavy to small sizes.

Cherries: : The California season is done.

Kiwi: This market is steady, prices have come down.

Washington Apples and Pears: 

New York/East Coast 
  • overall crop is up slightly
  • growing conditions have been favorable 
  • size profile unknown, possibly small to medium (due to the freeze in April) 
  • harvesting on schedule for mid to late August which is normal time. 

 
Michigan (26-28 million cases) 

  • overall crop up significantly  
  • growing conditions very favorable 
  • size profile medium to large 
  • harvesting is on time, mid to late August 

Washington (150 million cases) 

  • overall crop up significantly
  • growing conditions extremely favorable 
  • harvesting in three weeks (about 3 weeks early) 
  • Foodservice type apples will, year over year, continue to be available but each time in less and less quantity. Smaller supply is going to cause higher demand which in turn drives costs up.