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MONDAY REPORT
May 29th, 2017
Memorial Day
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Quote of the Week:
"If you don't like something, change it.
If you can't change it, change your attitude"
Maya Angelou
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National Economic Notes:
Global Business Confidence
: +0.4
Global business sentiment is solid, particularly in the U.S., as it has been since before last year's presidential election. Confidence has risen in Europe in recent weeks. Confidence is consistent with a global economy that is expanding at a pace that is above its potential. Businesses' biggest complaint is regulatory and legal issues, with a record close to half of respondents saying these issues are their greatest worry. One-fifth of respondents say the cost and availability of labor is their most serious problem.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
: -0.42
The pace of U.S. economic growth picked up in April. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to 0.49 in April from 0.07 in March thanks to gains in production-related indicators. Two of the four broad categories that make up the index improved from March. Only one made a negative contribution to the headline index. The contribution of production-related indicators surged to 0.46 in April from 0.01. Employment-related indicators contributed 0.1 point to April's CFNAI, compared with 0.05 in March. The personal consumption and housing category contributed -0.08 point in April, down from -0.06. The index's three-month moving average rose to 0.23 in April from a neutral reading in March. The CFNAI's headline index indicates U.S. economic activity was above its historical trend.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
: -0.3
Strong consumer and investment sentiment will support growth in the U.S. economy over the coming quarters, but gains will slow as the expansion matures. The ECRI weekly leading index ticked down in the week ending May 12, falling to 144.5 from 144.8. The WLIg, the headline figure's smoothed annualized growth rate, also declined, slipping to 5%.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
: +1
The growth rate of factory production has stabilized in May, following a precipitous deceleration in the previous month. The Kansas City Fed's composite index of manufacturing registered an 8, roughly on par with April's reading of 7. The index signals that growth is proceeding at a moderate pace, albeit well slower than in March when the index measured 20. Despite the more subdued state of current conditions, expectations for six months ahead are highly optimistic.
Jobless Claims
: +1,000
After falling for three consecutive weeks, initial claims for unemployment insurance edged higher. New filings rose a mere 1,000 from the previous week's revised level to 234,000 in the week ended May 20. The previous week's level was revised higher by 1,000. The four-week moving average fell 5,750 from the previous week's revised average to 235,250. Continuing claims rose 24,000 from the previous week's revised level to 1.923 million in the week ended May 13, and the insured unemployment rate remained at 1.4%.
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
: +4.4%
Mortgage applications were up last week, more than reversing the loss in the prior week. Mortgage rates were down across the board. The composite index increased by 4.4%. The refinance index increased 10.5% while the purchase index moved 0.8% lower.
FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index
: +6.2%
The Federal Housing Finance Agency Purchase-Only House Price Index rose 6.2% on a year-ago basis in March, slightly slower than the previous month's gain. House price appreciation continued, with U.S. prices rising 1.4% in the first quarter, about even with the previous quarter's gain. House prices are rising to greater heights because of steady demand and limited inventories. Gains are broad-based across all regions on a year-ago basis, but house prices in the Middle Atlantic division lag.
Existing-Home Sales
: 5.57 mil
Existing-home sales slipped in April, coming in 2.3% below the revised March total, though still 1.6% higher than in April 2016. Single-family and condo sales fell in April as single-family listings fell. The tight market also pushed the median single-family house price to rise at 6% year over year, well above the historical average. Three of the four Census regions registered declining sales in April, and two also have year-over-year declines. Sales in the West fell 3.3% from March but are still up by 3.5% from April 2016.
Oil Inventories
: -4.4 mil barrels
A larger than expected decline in crude oil inventories will put upward pressure on oil prices. Crude oil inventories fell by 4.4 million barrels in the week ended May 19, much more than analyst predictions of a 2.1 million-barrel decrease. Gasoline inventories fell by 800,000 barrels, more than analyst expectations of a 695,000-barrel decline. Distillate inventories decreased by 500,000 barrels, beating analyst predictions of a 248,000-barrel drop. Refinery capacity utilization rose from 93.4% to 93.5%, roughly in line with analyst expectations of a 0.2-percentage point increase. Total U.S. oil demand is 0.8% lower than a year earlier.
Natural Gas Storage Report
: +7 bil cubic feet
Natural gas inventories rose by slightly more than industry analysts were expecting, which will put minimal downward pressure on gas prices. Working gas in underground storage rose by 75 billion cubic feet during the week ended May 19, compared with analyst predictions of a 72-bcf build. In the Mountain region, working gas in underground storage rose by 5 bcf after rising by 6 bcf in the prior week. Inventories are 2.4% lower than a year earlier and 25.8% above their five-year average.
Source: Economy.com
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What Do Retail Owners/Tenants Really Think?
The following were comments in a survey of tenants of retail centers nation-wide:
- "Electric cars are pricey, so we see customers with a higher budget driving them. Having charging stations would be a great way to bring well-qualified customers to the plaza, where they can shop while they wait for their cars to charge." -Mesa, Ariz.
- "I do wish we were given a list of the tenants and the map of the center. We have guests that get lost in the shopping center, but we do not know how to direct them where to go." -Alexandria, Va.
- "I love the play areas for kids, but the mall could use a little more dicersity in store types-maybe something like a liquor store, electronics store, or something that appeals to the male market." -Westminster, Colo.
- "I think there should be a retail advisory meeting every quarter because issues pop up frequently and they aren't always resolved. This way there is interaction with all of the tenants and the front office more often." -Western Springs, Ill.
- "I would like to do some group advertising with all of the restaurants and other tenants. We need to all work together to get more foot traffic." -St. Louis
- "I would like to receive a monthly newsletter with information about what is happening-maybe even include a featured store each month so we get to know other tenants in the mall and can help direct customers to their stores as well." -Houston
- "I would like to see the center be more active and visible in the community by initiating and sponsoring programs. Hosting events on the property would also increase awareness of the center." -San Jose, Calif.
- "If you are considering new amenities to add for both employee and customer use, please include outdoor areas with covered seating for breaks and lunch." -Gilbert, Ariz.
- "It would be nice to have a bank deposit option for paying rent instead of the cumbersome current method of sending in a check each month." -Houston, Ala.
- "Like any other shopping center, parking always becomes and issue on high-traffic days. The availability of storefront spaces should always go to the customer, but employees should have designated spaces, too." -Cedar Hill, Texas
- "Our recycling program desperately needs to incorporate all streams of waste (glass, organic matter, etc.). Currently, we are only able to recycle paper and plastic, but sustainability is a growing concern for Millennials, as well as our older customer base." -Fortt Worth, Texas
- "Please add solar panels to the roof so we can tap into an alternate energy source. Plus, solar panels will help us save on our electric bill and savings is everything for small-business survival." -Glendora, Calif.
- "Shopping at a mall is becoming obsolete, so there needs to be more ways to entertain guests. Some ideas would be a movie theater, ice rink in the winter, more activities at the mall and use of the pavilion." -Western Springs, Ill.
- "The center needs to turn on all of the lights in the parking structure at night. It is a serious concern for both customer and employee safety with half the lights being out." -Milford, Conn.
- "The mall should add social spaces within the building's common areas. Additions such as benches, bike racks and a green playing area would be wonderful as well." -Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
- "There should be more marketing options for tenants to create more traffic and increase revenues. Right now, we are not allowed to have signs outside the mall, which means people don't know that we exist inside the mall." -Princeton, Ala.
- "We would like to have a quarterly check-in to ensure all maintenance is up-to-date and well maintained." -McLean, Va.
Source: Shopping Center SmartBrief & Commercial Property Executive
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Who's Next Up!
Generation Z - The New Workforce
There's a new generation about to graduate. Just when employers thought they figured out Millennials, the first class of Generation Z is about to enter the working world and likely change the American workforce as we know it. Employers need to be well-informed in preparation for hiring individuals from Generation Z. Here's what companies should know:
Gen Z's are the true digital natives
. Born approximately 1995 through 2010, they have never experienced a world without constant connectivity. They have always had a computer in their pocket and will expect technology to be a basic part of the work infrastructure. This generation will lead the way as companies figure out how best to integrate technology in the workplace. To them, tech is a basic part of how the world operates. This will most likely disrupt the traditional sense of corporate hierarchy. For the first time, older generations will no longer be the ones to pave the way.
Gen Z's are the ultimate do-it-yourselfers.
They will bring their DIY mentality into the workplace. Every answer they've ever needed has always been at their fingertips. They will find ways make processes and procedures more efficient because they think older generations overcomplicate things.
Gen Z's have high aspirations.
They have a huge desire for career growth. They don't mind working hard, but they expect their efforts to be rewarded and their careers to grow. If employers can nurture Gen Z workers and help them get ahead when they have earned it, they will be loyal employees. They just want their potential recognized.
Gen Z's want constant feedback.
Gen Z believes that in order to advance, they need constant and extensive feedback on how they are doing. They are looking for guidance and mentorship from those higher than them. They want bosses who take interest in their careers and the time to listen to their ideas. Surprisingly, face to face is their preferred method of communication with higher-ups, they want actual conversations and connections.
Gen Z's are loyal.
Most of Gen Z is hoping to change jobs only 3 or 4 times over the course of their careers. They believe that staying with a company long-term can help them advance successfully. Generation Z wants to work for a company they are genuinely interested in. If they are passionate about the company, they will be hardworking and loyal.
Gen Z's want financial security.
They grew up in the middle of the recession and are ready to work hard for their paycheck. Their focus on financial security will be cutthroat when it comes to establishing careers. Like the generation before them, they want to make a difference, but it isn't their main focus. Money and job security at the top of their list.
Gen Z's will have a side hustle.
Most of Generation Z wishes their hobby could be their job. Gen Z is extremely entrepreneurial and they tend to pursue income generating hobbies. This is one example of how they will try to create job and financial security on their own. While other generations did some moonlighting, it usually wasn't a hobby. For Gen Z, having a job and a money making hobby isn't an either/or option. They will do both.
Gen Z's want flexibility.
They believe in working smart. Their lives are so technology-driven and face-paced, they have little patience for wasting time. They have no interest in working 9-to-5 at a desk when it's unnecessary. Allowing this flexibility will not only increase morale, it will create a more dynamic and productive group of workers.
Generation Z came along in the aftermath of 9/11 and grew up during the recession. These events have shaped their outlook on life. They have a great amount of drive and ambition to bring to the workplace. They are innovative, hardworking, and will be loyal employees.
They intend on making an impact.
The most important thing for employers to know is that Generation Z will be completely different than other generations. Instead of trying to decide if that makes them better or worse than the ones before them, embrace it.
Source: Ginovus
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Monday Report Archive
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Utah Jobs Report
Month #10 2017
What workers are struggling (2017/2016):
- Natural Resources & Mining -10.2%
- Utilities -2.6%
What workers are gaining (2016-2017):
- Building Construction +10.8%
- Hospitality Accommodations +8.7%
- Couriers and Messengers +7.3%
- Specialty Trade Contractors +4.6%
- Manufacturing +3.8%
- Food Services and Drinking Places +2.8%
- Truck Transportation +2.3%
Where are jobs declining (2016-2017):
- Daggett County -13.8%
- Wayne County -6.4%
- Uintah County -5.9%
- Carbon County -3.4%
- Emery County -3.1%
- Beaver County -3.1%
- Garfield County -1.0%
- Duchesne County -0.5%
Where are jobs gaining (2016-2017):
- Piute County +8.1%
- Iron County +6.0%
- Tooele County +5.8%
- Washington County +5.7%
- Wasatch County +5.4%
- Morgan County +4.0%
- Utah County +4.0%
- Box Elder County +3.4%
- Davis County +2.9%
- Sanpete County +2.9%
- Cache County +2.0%
- San Juan County +1.7%
- Weber County +1.7%
- Sevier County +1.3%
- Kane County +0.6%
- Juab County +0.5%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Workforce Research and Analysis, 5/19/2017
40 YEARS - WE DO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
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Acting with Integrity
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Serving with Purpose
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Reaching Forward
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In Case You Missed It!
Utah Economic Scorecard
Month 10 FY 2016-17
Total Net Revenue: +6.0% +$450.0m
State General Fund (Unrestricted): +2.8% +$50.8m
- State Retail Sales Taxes (picking up!) - Up 4.1% +$63.2m
K-12 SCHOOL INCOME IS UP!
Education/USF
: +6.9% up $224.5m
- Individual Income Taxes: +7.8% or up $230.3m
- Corporate Taxes are down -0.5% or $1.35m
Transportation:
-0.3% -$1.4m
- Motor Fuel Tax: +16.7% or +$40.4m
- Special Fuels Tax: +15.1% or +$14.0m
- Local Transportation Corridor Preservation: -14.4m
Transportation Investment Fund:
Down -0.3% or +$1.45m
Liquor Mark-Up:
-1.7% +$2.4m
Local Government Revenues:
- Local Sales Taxes (includes food):+4.9% or up $22.5m
- Public Transit (sales tax): +5.1% or up $9.8m
- County Option Sales Tax: +4.9% or up $5.6m
- County Option Zoo, Arts & Parks (sales tax):+11.4% or up $3.8m
- Tourism, Recreation, Cultural, Convention Tax: +6.2% or $3.5m
- Transient Room Tax: +13.0% or $5.8m
Source:
Utah State Tax Commission, TC-23 5/11/17
40 YEARS - WE DO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
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Acting with Integrity
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Serving with Purpose
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Reaching Forward
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In Case You Missed It!
Should Students Get Grades 13 & 14 Free?
Bonneville Research just wrapped up some Strategic Planning work for the Salt Lake Community College, and when we saw this Op-ed piece, we decided it needed to be shared! We hope you agree.
Four years of free public college might be unrealistic, but two years could help students find better jobs, and keep the country's economy competitive.
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Bonneville Research - Who we are and what we do
Bonneville Research is a Utah based team of dedicated professionals who are shameless promoters of quality State and Local Government.
We believe it is the connections between seemingly disparate segments of a community that form the strength and define the fabric of a neighborhood and a region.
- If you are a private company looking to locate a new or expanded site, we can help with identifying communities and specific properties that match your unique criteria.
- If you are a private land owner or manager looking to sell or lease your site, we can help with identifying specific businesses whose typical criteria match that of your site or sites.
- If you are a developer with a proposed project that just doesn't "pencil," we can help identify specific public and private programs that may assist.
- If you are a public entity looking to retain existing businesses we can help identify businesses at risk and design strategies to keep them in your community at existing or new sites.
- If you are a public entity looking to attract new business, we can help with identifying available commercial properties that match criteria of those new businesses you have identified.
- If you are an Economic Development entity, we can help you identify who is looking at your website and help initiate a conversation with potential new clients.
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