September 30, 2022

by Dave Robinson

Britain Roils the Financial Markets: A dramatic shift in British fiscal policy is making news and raising concerns about unhealthy global contagion. The markets expected Liz Truss, the new United Kingdom prime minister, to announce an extensive aid package to UK citizens needing energy assistance but were caught off guard by the concurrent announcement of a big tax reduction for high earners. Harvard professor Larry Summers, who has been a vocal critic of Federal Reserve policies, called the policy shift “utterly irresponsible.” CNBC This dramatic shift in fiscal policy raised concerns that it would feed inflation in the UK and be unsustainable. Axios

 

What happened in the markets? In short, the British pound plunged to an all-time low against the dollar, British interest rates surged, and British bonds plummeted. Washington Post The Bank of England has been forced to intervene by buying long-term British bonds to stabilize the markets. CNBC Global criticism continues to mount, including from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). CNBC Prime Minister Truss now has a public relations nightmare on her hands, on top of the serious economic and financial challenges facing the UK. New Yorker

 

Can the Fed Engineer a Soft Landing for the U.S. Economy? We remain skeptical that the Fed can force inflation down near to its 2% target, while avoiding a recession. Chair Powell has been open about the “pain” ahead, and the Fed is on a clear glide path to an inverted yield curve, which frequently signals a coming recession. Professor Alan Blinder, a former vice chair of the Federal Reserve, recently opined that it can be done and that there is a better history for soft landings than many think. In his words, “History teaches us that successfully engineering a softish landing requires both skillful decisions and a dollop of good luck. But the odds are far from prohibitive.” Wall Street Journal

 

Housing Markets Are Cooling Off: Fed policy has already removed much of the price froth in the U.S. housing markets by raising the cost of mortgages. Per S&P Case-Shiller Index, its 20-City composite fell 18.7% in July alone but was still up 16.1% year over year. CNBC Where are the housing markets cooling off the most? If you look at the top ten, all are in the western U.S. except for North Port, Florida. CNBC

 

Convert Office Space to Housing? We are reading that more cities are looking to convert vacant office buildings into housing. Why not if it can be done feasibly? Axios This strikes as a great concept that brings many benefits and could add quality housing stock in a cost-effective way. I recall that way back “in the day” the office housing Robinson Financial Associates on Commercial Street was in a converted apartment building.

 

Medicare Part B Premiums Will Drop in 2023: The government announced this week that 2023 monthly premium for Medicare Part B coverage will be around 3% lower. The Biden administration primarily attributes the drop to limitations on the expensive new Alzheimer’s drug, Aduhelm. Whether this is a simplification or not, it is good news for Medicare participants who are also likely to get a big cost of living bump to their Social Security in 2023. Reuters CNBC

 

Lifestyle Notes:

 

  •  What is the Longevity Diet? The longevity diet is promoted by Dr. Val Longo, a respected longevity researcher. At the risk of oversimplification, I would say that it is primarily vegan in philosophy and a close cousin to the Mediterranean Diet with roots in Italian regional cuisines. Medical Express I do not have the background to know whether it will help you live longer, but it sounds like a sensible way to eat. I like the simple guidelines. Longevity Diet for Adults


  • Walking Faster Has Big Benefits: Science has known for some time that walking reduces all-cause mortality. A new United Kingdom study confirms these benefits up to about 10,000 steps a day but also shows that walking more briskly brings even greater benefits. New York Times JAMA Network Medium As a personal aside, I am slowly but surely learning to enjoy walking simply for the pleasure of moving and being outside.


  • Strength Training Promotes Health: We know we need to eat well and to move. But science is increasingly noting the demonstrable metabolic importance of maintaining and increasing muscle mass. Strength training also correlates with reduction in all-cause mortality. New York Times If you do not enjoy lifting weights, consider starting with bodyweight exercises or working with resistance bands (a la Tom Brady). board30global.com


  • Four Step Plan for Getting Things Done: I liked this deceptively simple 4-part model for getting things done, as outlined in the discussion between two highly respected behavioral scientists, Katy Milkman and Ayelet Fishbach. CNN


  • NASA Crashes Spacecraft into Asteroid: What will we do if a big asteroid is on a collision course with Earth that could mean curtains for everything? NASA just successfully caused a small spacecraft, about the size of a golf cart, to crash into an asteroid the size of a stadium. This was merely a test, as this asteroid was not a threat to Earth. The NASA scientists likened the collision to a bug hitting a windshield, but it may be enough to nudge the asteroid into a different trajectory. Washington Post Not said but does this project have star wars type military implications?


  • Jet Lag Treatment: The attached article is the most comprehensive discussion of jet lag treatment I have ever seen. If you travel much across multiple time zones, I suggest saving it as a reference tool. NutritionFacts.org

 

Upcoming RSWA Webinar: RSWA is getting its webinar game on again. Watch for an invite in the coming weeks for a discussion with retirement planning expert Professor Michael Finke who will talk about Planning for a Life in Retirement. Professor Finke will join us via Zoom on this coming October 27th at 4:30pm.

 

A Quote to Consider: “People do not decide their futures, they decide their habits and their habits decide their futures.” F. M. Alexander

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As always, thank you for reading. Stay safe and be well. We look forward to hearing from you and connecting. 

Regards,

Dave

David P. Robinson, CFP®
Robinson Smith Wealth Advisors, LLC
P. 207.874.9840 ext. 1
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