Brainy's Share Market ToolboxBrainy's Share Market Toolbox
An arsenal of weapons to help you tackle the share market.
Monthly Share Market eNews email update
Santa Rally - True or false?
eNews + eBook Articles Update December 2013
     
  
This month's Share Market eNews email is going to all of our subscribing Share Market Toolbox Members as normal, and to the non-Members who have expressed an interest in receiving it.

 

Santa Claus Rally
True? or a Wall Street furphy? 

 

These days in the approach to Christmas every year, a lot is said about the so-called Santa Rally. But is the Santa Claus Rally (aka Christmas Rally) really real? or was it invented for some underlying alternative reason? 
 
Over the last couple of years at about this time in the lead up to Christmas, I have prepared some charts of the Aussie index, and compared year on year, to try to understand more about this phenomenon known as the Santa Rally. With that research done, and a few charts already prepared, I thought that this year I should study those charts in more detail, and see if we can make any real sense of them. See more details below, including a note of finance industry "cynicism".
 
For next month's eNews email I plan to extend recent materials on the topic of exit strategies. In case you missed the recent information on this topic, you can see it here in the eNews archive.

 

Any non-member who no longer wants to receive this material on a monthly basis can simply unsubscribe from ALL topics using the SafeUnsubscribe link at the bottom - or just Update Your Profile to change your interests. (NOTE: Toolbox Members and BullCharts mailing list members should not unsubscribe, as it will remove you from all my mail lists.)

Please remember, anything mentioned here, and in the referred eBook Articles, is for general education only, and is not advice of any sort.
 

, please read on....  

About the eNews emails...
Just a short note to the recently new Toolbox Members:- These share market eNews emails always go to Toolbox Members (a part of the Toolbox service), and to the people who have registered to receive occasional information about the Share Market. This is a monthly email with some pointers and tips on focused topics - see a quick intro to the eNews emails. They often include references to specific eBook Articles in my Share Market Toolbox, as well as key web pages in the free area of the Toolbox (eg. on the extensive Share Market web page). I have been writing the eBook Articles since October 2008 - that's more than four years, and these eNews emails help you to navigate to related and useful information each month.
This month's focus:
Santa Rally - Real or not?
It could be argued that the Santa Rally phenomenon is a notion dreamed up by the Wall Street bankers to give a glimmer of hope regardless of the economy, and to encourage share market investors to participate (and provide more liquidity, and to increase brokers' commissions at an otherwise quiet time of year).
 
You may or may not agree with this. But the bottom line is that when we hear about the Santa Rally, and we wonder whether we should participate in it or not, we might want to pause and wonder if the rally is a special one, or just another market rally like any other. See more details below and draw your own conclusion.

 

, please read on...
Recent monthly focus topics
Since starting this new format for the monthly eNews email in December 2010, I have accumulated many topic-specific discussions. Refer to the latest detailed list of topics in the eNews email archive in the Toolbox.
In This Issue
FOCUS TODAY...
Recent Topics
Feedback
The eBook Articles
Articles summary
Front pages
Any Problems?
Feedback?

Robert is always very happy to receive feedback about the Toolbox, and the articles and weapons therein.

Please feel free to contact Robert by email or phone.

Contact Us... 
Quick Links

Articles Master List of all eBook (pdf) Articles

Introductory information About the Articles

Detailed Topic Index

Robert's BullCharts charting software Knowledgebase
 
The latest
Table of Contents pages for:
Share Trading,
or
Technical Analysis
or
BullCharts 

Share Market Toolbox - What is it?
 
Toolbox
Membership

Go to the Online Shop to become a
Toolbox member. 
 
Join as a Toolbox Member by printing the
manual order form
complete the details and send in the mail with payment.
 
The Members Area Gateway (lists all Toolbox features)  
Remember...
Price charts summarise the underlying opinions  
and emotions of the market participants. 
Every chart tells a story. It's helpful to 
understand the stories in the price charts.
Santa Rally - True? or a Wall Street furphy?
 
In this month's focus on the so-called Santa Rally I have posted a new web page with some price charts of the index in recent years, as well as some comments. And these price charts have led to some conclusions that question whether the term Santa Rally is perhaps just a fictitious name that could be applied to any share market rally that might happen at roughly this time of year. In fact, there seems to be no support for confidently expecting a rally to take place at any specific time.
 
See the Santa Rally web page with charts, comments and relevant web links here:
 
 
Also, when researching this topic, and looking at the price charts of the Australian All Ordinaries (XAO) index, I started to crystallise some other views I have been building for a while now. And that led to the need to post another new web page on the topic of financial industry scepticism. See that new web page and the comments and further links to research here:

 

 
Happy reading, and pondering, and perhaps this will give you something to discuss over the dinner table next week.
 
Regarding my growing collection of eBook (PDF) Articles (none new this month), don't forget to see the latest Table of Contents pages for all articles (see links in the side-bar at right). There are now a total of 134 Articles in this collection of eBook Articles - a whopping total of 613 pages of information! You can see the Table of Contents for all eBook Articles here (recently new or updated ones are highlighted), and the Master Toolbox Index here. 
eBook (PDF) Articles - Summary

Since October 2008 I have accumulated quite a collection of eBook (PDF) Articles on three subject areas - Share Trading/Investing, Technical Analysis and BullCharts software (actually more than 550 pages of material in more than 125 articles). These Articles are invaluable for both new and experienced investors and traders. I am now writing brief monthly notes in this eNews email to highlight specific Articles on targeted topics. I am also writing new Articles and updating existing ones as required. For more information please see:

Article front pages 
For any new readers of my Toolbox eBook Articles, there are some useful introductory Articles including an Introduction and an Overview Article for each of the three subject areas. You can see them here:
Any problems?
What if you have some sort of problem with accessing the Toolbox and any of these Articles? Or maybe the Username and Password doesn't work. If there is any problem at all, simply contact me by email or phone. The best email address for this is: support@robertbrain.com. Occasionally emails disappear - the system thinks they are spam, or the ISP might think they are spam. If I don't reply within a day or so, please contact me by either email address or phone.
In Closing
There is nothing secret in this email, so feel free to forward it to someone if you think they might benefit from the information, or from being a Toolbox Member. The easiest way to do this is to use the "Forward Email" link at the bottom. 
 
I am also confident that my Toolbox Members won't be sharing their username and password with non-members. It is not fair that I spend all this time preparing the materials, and then my Toolbox Members pay money to have legitimate access, only to let some people pay nothing to read and view the details.
 
Please feel free to email an individual Article to others as a sample; but if they want online access to all the materials, it is pretty cheap, so they should subscribe as a Toolbox Member. There is information about Toolbox Membership in the Quick Links section at right. 
 
Always happy to receive feedback, or suggestions for new content or improvements.
 
Until next month,
happy investing or trading,


Watch out for the sharks in the ocean! Robert B. Brain
(mobile: 0438 355 910)

ps: watch out for the sharks in the ocean!