September 2018
Featured Listings
Phoenix
14819 S 13th Place
Phoenix, AZ 85048

4 bedrooms | 2 baths
2,447 sq. ft.

Mls# 5811941

Offered at $425,000
Mesa
1832 E Kael Street
Mesa, AZ 85203

5 bedrooms | 3 baths
3,276 sq. ft.

Mls# 5775905

Offered at $574,500
Phoenix
1423 E Granada Road
Chandler, AZ 85286

3 bedrooms | 3 baths
1,969 sq. ft.

Mls# 5769984

Offered at $449,500
Phoenix
4614 E Piedmont Road
Phoenix, AZ 85044

3 bedrooms | 2.5 baths
1,795 sq. ft.

Mls# 5787431

Offered at $294,900
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Phoenix-Area Home Prices Surpass 2006 Peak to Set Record

Arizona Republic
Catherine Reagor, August 3, 2018

We're finally there. Metro Phoenix home prices are back to the record hit in 2006.  Actually, the Valley's median home price soared past the previous record to reach $268,000 in June, according to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service's latest research.  The previous record median price was about $265,000, set in June 2006, Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service data show.  The housing crash and the Great Recession started in 2007. Phoenix-area home prices hit bottom in September 2011, when the median plummeted to about $120,000.

Low-key party

Housing analysts are still a bit subdued about the Valley's home-price recovery, partly because it took more than a decade, and the bust was so painful.  Also, higher prices mean it's tougher for first-time buyers to afford a home. That can slow the housing market and the Valley's growth.  "It's 12 years later, and the Valley's housing market is in a much better and different place that it was when prices were this high before," said Tom Ruff, housing analyst with The Information Market, owned by ARMLS.

Ruff and Cromford Report founder and housing analyst Mike Orr accurately called the peak and the bottom for metro Phoenix's housing market using pending sales, foreclosures and other key indicators.  "It's been a long and often unpleasant ride," Orr recently said about the roller-coaster ride of the Valley's housing market since 2005.

Bad memories for homeowners

If you owned a Phoenix-area home during the past 15 years, you understand why the long-awaited recovery of home prices is something to celebrate.  If you are new to the Valley and didn't live in an area when prices crashed, let me share a few bad memories.

  • Because of speculators and bad mortgages with outrageous costs backed by Wall Street, foreclosures in metro Phoenix soared from about 100 a month in 2006 to 4,500 in 2011.
  • More than half of all homeowners were underwater, meaning they owed more than their house was worth.
  • Homeowners, angry they couldn't get government-backed loan modifications while Wall Street and banks got bailouts, walked away from Valley houses in record numbers.
  • Some national housing analysts said it would be 20 to 25 years before metro Phoenix home prices recovered.

Housing rebound

A look at how the market has recovered.

  • Valley foreclosures are down to less than 150 a month.
  • Less than 5 percent of all metro-Phoenix homeowners are underwater.
  • Home prices are back to the peak, but not because they climbed 50 percent in a year like 2005-2006. Phoenix-area home values have been ticking up 5 percent to 8 percent a year for the past few years.

This isn't a boom

In June, my column "Phoenix home prices keep climbing, but no bubble in sight," drew a tweet from a longtime Valley resident showing his disbelief.  "Heard that one before," tweeted @RobbieSherwood, a former reporter and communications director for the Phoenix mayor who is now with the Arizona House of Representatives Democratic Caucus. 

I understand his doubt. Many of us who lived through the crash get nervous when we see prices back up, and homes selling so fast they spark bidding wars.  But the differences between 2005-2006 and now are many. Mostly affordable homes priced below $400,000 in popular neighborhoods are drawing multiple bids quickly now.  Again, that's not good for metro Phoenix's housing affordability, but the forecast for prices could mean the problem won't worsen during the next year.

No housing bust in sight

None of the experts are forecasting another big drop in Valley home values anytime soon.  But Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst with Cromford, expects home prices to appreciate much more slowly and potentially flatten out this year.  She said Phoenix-area home prices could even dip next year, but only slightly. 

Christa Lawcock of Realty Executives said some homeowners seeing rising prices are talking to her about selling now and renting to cash out at the peak to avoid a housing crash.  "That makes no sense," said Lawcock, a central Phoenix real-estate agent who navigated the boom, bust and now recovery for many buyers and sellers. "Rents are near record highs and probably more than some of their mortgages. They aren't going to find big bargains on homes, even if prices dip a bit.

"We all got beat up by the crash, and now we need to not freak out and make bad decisions when the market is back," she said. "Please, this isn't another boom/bust."





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Local Upcoming Events

Various locations
Phoenix, AZ
September 21, 2018 to September 30, 2018
Recurring daily
$33 or $44
(602) 307-9134

______________________________________________________________________

Ongoing Calendar of Concerts

Event Calendar

University of Phoenix Stadium
1 Cardinals Drive Glendale, AZ
August 29, Sep 1, Sep 5 - 8, Sep 12 - 14, Sep 21 - 22, Sep 26 - 29, 2018
10:30 a.m., 12:30 p.m., 2:30 p.m. each day
$9 adults, $7 children, $7 seniors (ages 65 and over) and military (with ID), 
no charge for children three and under

Various Galleries
7100 East Main Street Scottsdale , AZ
Starting August 30, 2018
Recurring weekly on Thursday
7-9 p.m.
Free

Tempe Sports Complex
8403 S. Hardy Dr. Tempe, AZ
September 12, 2018
7:00 PM
Free

WestWorld of Scottsdale
16601 N Pima Rd SCOTTSDALE, AZ
September 14, 2018 to September 16, 2018
Recurring daily
9:00 AM to 4:00 PM
$8 - $65
(480) 696-4018

Westworld of Scottsdale
16601 N Pima Rd Scottsdale, AZ
September 23, 2018
4:00 PM to 10:00 PM
$35+

Desert Botanical Garden
1201 N. Galvin Parkway Phoenix, AZ
September 28, 2018 to November 18, 2018
Recurring daily
9:30 AM to 5:00 PM
Included with Paid Garden Admission
(480) 941-1225

Roosevelt Row Arts District
128 E Roosevelt St Phoenix, AZ
September 29, 2018
5:00 PM to 10:00 PM
$10; Kids 12 and under free
(602) 885-6267

Queen Creek Olive Mill
25062 S. Meridian Road Queen Creek, AZ
September 29, 2018 to September 30, 2018
Recurring daily
Saturday 10 a.m.-7 p.m.; Sunday 10 a.m.-5 p.m.
Free Parking and Admission
(480) 888-9290
Downtown Chandler
178 E Commonwealth Ave Chandler, AZ
September 29, 2018
3:00 PM to 11:00 PM
$12 online or $15 at gate
(602) 276-2499

Old Town Peoria
10510 N 83rd Ave Peoria, AZ
September 29, 2018
2:00 PM to 10:30 PM
$5 before 5 p.m., $10 after, 12 and under free
(623) 773-7137

Arizona State Fair & Coliseum
1826 W. McDowell Road Phoenix, AZ
October 5, 2018 to October 28, 2018
Recurring weekly on Sunday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday
See website for times
Kids (5-13yrs) $7, Adults (14yrs+) $10, Seniors (55+) $7, Kids under 5 yrs are free
(602) 252-6771

Centennial Plaza
9875 N. 85th Ave. Peoria, AZ
October 5, 2018 to October 6, 2018
Recurring daily
5:00 PM to 10:00 PM
$5; ages 20 and under free.
Paul Holmes
REALTORĀ®

602.315.8992   |  paul.holmes@bhhsaz.com  |  paulholmes.us