Presents:
TCM WEEKLY UPDATE - 09/23/2019
A Weekly Recap of Global Markets and Economies for TCM Clients
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WEEKLY QUOTE
"
Be humble. I always believed the higher a monkey climbs in the tree, the more people below can see his ass. You don't have to be that monkey."
T. Boone Pickens (1928 to 2019)
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Up and down the stairs it goes, without moving any toes. It is found upstairs, downstairs, even in the hall; alas, it cannot move at all. What is it?
LAST WEEK'S RIDDLE
What has hundreds or thousands of ears, but can't hear a thing?
LAST WEEK'S RIDDLE ANSWER
A corn field, as it is full of ears of corn.
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WEEKLY VIDEO
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| DOWNTON ABBEY - Official Trailer |
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THE WEEK ON WALL STREET
Investors reacted to two major news items last week, one far more of a surprise than the other. The Federal Reserve did indeed make a rate cut, matching Wall Street expectations. Drone strikes on two of the world's largest oil fields brought a shock to the global oil market.
At Friday's closing bell, stocks wound up with weekly losses after news broke that Chinese trade officials were heading home from the U.S. sooner than planned. The S&P 500 retreated 0.51% week-over-week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.05%, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.72%. In developed foreign markets, shares tracked by the MSCI EAFE index fell 0.31%.1,2,3
Another Quarter-Point Cut
Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 7-3 to lower the benchmark interest rate by another 0.25%, to a range of 1.75% to 2.00%.
While traders looked for signs of future guidance on monetary policy, little emerged from the latest Fed policy statement and Fed chair Jerome Powell's subsequent press conference. The updated dot-plot forecast showed that seven Fed officials anticipated at least one more cut before 2020, while ten did not.4
Oil Prices Jump
As last week began, crude oil futures spiked in response to an attack that interrupted roughly 5% of the world's oil production. The value of West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, spiked 14.7% in a day, starting at $8.05 and reaching $62.90 by Monday's close.
This was oil's biggest one-day leap since September 2008. Prices came down from there: Friday, WTI crude settled at $58.48.5,6
FINAL THOUGHT
So, what day last week saw the biggest loss or gain for stocks? Not Monday, when the market absorbed news of the Saudi oil field strike. Not Wednesday, when the Fed rate cut occurred. Instead, it was Friday, when the S&P 500 lost only 0.49%. It just goes to show that stocks may ride through seemingly market-moving events with little daily change.7
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THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Tuesday:
The Conference Board's September Consumer Confidence Survey.
Wednesday:
August new home sales data from the Census Bureau.
Thursday:
The federal government's third estimate of second-quarter economic growth.
Friday:
August personal spending numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and September's final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, measuring consumer confidence levels.
Source: Econoday, September 20, 2019
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
Tuesday:
AutoZone (AZO), Cintas (CTAS), Nike (NKE)
Thursday:
Accenture (ACN), Carnival (CCL), Micron Technology (MU)
Source: Zacks, September 20, 2019
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
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It is an honor and privilege to serve as your trusted financial advisor. If you have any financial questions or concerns (large or small), kudos or new client introductions, please call me at (330) 836-7000 or email me at
[email protected].
Sometimes a sounding board can help, as can my 30
plus years of financial expertise and experience in helping clients successfully navigate the markets and make informed financial decisions that work best for them.
Please feel free to forward this update to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply to this email with their name and email address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
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Your many happy returns on life advisor,
Jon
Jonathan D. Torrens
CFP®
President & Chief Investment Officer
TCM Wealth Advisors
66 South Miller Road, Suite 202
Fairlawn, Ohio 44333
(330) 836-7000 Office
(330) 266-7979 Fax
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TCM Wealth Advisors Disclosures:
This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the "NYSE") and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions - the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
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Copyright © 2019 TCM Wealth Advisors. All Rights Reserved
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Sources:
1 - marketwatch.com/story/dow-skids-to-friday-lows-amid-reports-that-chinas-delegation-has-canceled-a-tariff-related-visit-2019-09-20 [9/20/19]
2 - wsj.com/market-data [9/20/19]
3 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [9/20/19]
4 - reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/fed-cuts-rates-on-7-3-vote-gives-mixed-signals-on-next-move-idUSKBN1W32H7 [9/18/19]
5 -
marketwatch.com/story/us-oils-10-surge-after-saudi-attack-puts-it-on-track-for-the-biggest-daily-gain-in-312-years-2019-09-15 [9/16/19]
6 - money.cnn.com/data/commodities/index.html [9/20/19]
7 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/ [9/20/19]
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