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BAM MARKET WRAP
March 31, 2017
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The Ides of March - Not So Much
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WHERE WE HAVE BEEN 
 
After a rally in February, March has gone nowhere fast.  In many respects, the pause has been constructive to this point.  February gains are being consolidated with a mostly sideways market.  Technology remains a pocket of strength while financials and energy were the losers for the month.   International stocks (especially emerging markets) have shown increasing strength and should provide a good opportunity in the quarters ahead.   Despite the positive first quarter, there remain a number of canaries in the coal mine.  Small caps continue to flounder and high yield bonds remain close to a sell signal.  It is very rare for this condition to persist for too long.  Something will have to give and either the markets will turn down to join these groups or small caps and high yields will turn up.  We are watching these two important sectors closely.   


WHERE WE ARE HEADED 
 
It appears that the market has become numb to negative news.  The VIX (a measure of fear in the market) remains at extremely low levels.  That is good news in the short term but raises red flags longer term.  When the Republicans fumbled the health care bill, it seemed a significant catalyst and a logical time for a sell-off.  The failure of the bill to get through the House endangers and/or delays much of the Trump administration agenda and policies.  Despite this, the market barely flinched.   Eventually, the market will react to a catalyst that strikes a nerve.  The resulting decline may be deeper and more violent than many expect.   We are almost through the historically strongest market period.  So far so good.   First quarter earnings will begin in earnest in a couple of weeks and expectations are for strong earnings growth.  Economic news continues to improve and expectations are for the Fed to stay out of the way and follow through on their promise of only 2 more 2017 rate increases.  What's not to like?  Short term the market is in a slight down trend.  Longer term the markets remain in an upward trend.  Even though we view risk as above normal, we continue to remain optimistic though increased volatility and a correction of some significance are likely to develop in the second quarter.

HOW WE ARE DOING

Client portfolios are close to fully invested.   Clarity surrounding this recent bout of weakness should develop over the next week or two.  Should the market strengthen, we will move to a fully invested posture.  However, continued weakness will force us to move out of positions that hit their sell stops.  All eyes are fixed on upcoming earnings and on the fate of health care and its impact on the breadth and viability of significant tax reform.  The complacency of market participants is concerning and though the markets continue to take everything in stride, that will change at some point. 


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Tidbits
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OIL STATS - The world consumes 98 million barrels of oil per day.  40% of the world's oil supply is produced from less than 2% of the world's largest operating oil fields (source: Energy & Capital).   
 
TWICE AS MANY - There were 404 operating oil rigs in the United States (on land and offshore) as of 5/27/16.  There were 809 operating oil rigs in the United States as of last Friday 3/24/17.  Thus, the number of working rigs has doubled in the last 10 months (source: Baker Hughes). 
 
REALLY OLD HOMES - 40% of the 75 million single family American homes that are owner-occupied as of 12/31/16 were built before 1970 (source: Census Bureau).
 
DOWN FOR MOST - President Donald Trump's $1.1 trillion budget for fiscal year 2018 (dealing with discretionary spending and not the anticipated $2.6 trillion of mandatory spending) recommended a +10% increase for US military spending.  12 of 15 Cabinet agencies would see budget cutbacks in Trump's 3/16/17 proposal (source: White House).
 
RAINY DAY FUNDS - 63% of American adults do not have $500 in a savings account to cover an emergency expense (source: CNN).  
 
  
 
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My 27th tax season comes to a close in a couple of weeks.   I don't do an inordinate number of tax returns any more but do have several close friends and family that I am pleased to help.  It keeps me up to date on the law and ensures that I get my return done on time!  We get a break this year with the 15th falling on a Saturday.  Make sure you have those taxes filed by Monday April 17th. 
 
We are adding a new monthly feature with this issue.  Did You Know will attempt to provide you with some actionable information, give you something to think about, or just share a tidbit we found interesting.  We hope you enjoy.  

DID YOU KNOW...

That if you were born on or before January 1, 1954, you may qualify for a special filing strategy that can increase and maximize your social security benefits.  If you are currently married, or are divorced and eligible for a benefit on an ex-spouse's record, once you reach full retirement age (assuming you have NOT yet claimed your benefits) you can use a restricted application to claim a spousal benefit, while letting your own benefit continue to grow.  Please contact us for more information.



 Sam and Bo

 


 
 
 
Your financial partner for twenty years and counting because managing your money never gets old.
 

 

       
We continue to make posts to our blog throughout the week so check it regularly if you want to see our thoughts.  You can access it by following the link below.  


 

THE GREATEST COMPLIMENT

In these uncertain times, a trusted financial adviser is more important than ever.  Whatever comes over the upcoming months and quarters, the markets are certain to have lots of volatility and wild swings.  Europe, the US economy and dysfunction in Washington, and continued trouble in Iran and the Middle East to name just a few.  If you have family, friends and neighbors that may benefit from our services, would you please forward this email and/or provide our contact information to them.  We purposefully do not spend time marketing our services so that we can devote all of our resources to managing your assets.  Thank you to all who have provided us referrals - it truly is the greatest compliment you can give us.      



 
BAM MARKET WRAP EXTENDED
EDITION
 
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Remember to visit our blog for market comments and observations in between newsletters.  We try to provide a few comments in between newsletters and certainly when there is a particularly interesting market day.  You can access it by clicking here. 

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Sam Bills - (865) 525-1329

Nashville Office
Bo Bills - (615) 371-5928

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Published by Sam C. Bills, Jr.  Copyright © 2008 Bills Asset Management.  All rights reserved.

BAM Market Wrap is produced and distributed regularly via email by Sam C. Bills, Jr. of Bills Asset Management  3001 Flagstone Drive, Franklin, TN 37069 Phone (615) 371-5928 Fax (615) 250-4903 - www.Billsasset.com

Bills Asset Management  is an independent registered investment advisor (RIA) not associated with any financial institution.  Data used in this publication is gathered from reliable sources, although completeness and accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  Performance results do not take into account any tax consequences and are not predictive of future results.  This publication does not give any specific investment advice, does not provide financial planning services, or consider any individual's financial situation, needs or goals.  This publication may not be reproduced or retransmitted in whole or in part without the consent of the author, Sam C. Bills, Jr.

 

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