The Economy Picks Up Speed
WEEKLY UPDATE - SEPTEMBER 5, 2017
In This Issue
Last week gave a number of things for both investors and non-investors to think - and worry - about. From North Korea's missiles to Hurricane Harvey's devastation to an unemployment uptick, the headlines were busy. Yet, despite these circumstances, U.S. stocks posted gains again this week - and the NASDAQ ended Friday with a new record high and 2017's best weekly performance. [1] Overall, the S&P 500 added 1.37%, the Dow was up 0.80%, the NASDAQ gained 2.71%, and the MSCI EAFE increased by 0.55%. [2]
So, what did we learn about the economy last week that helped contribute to these gains? 

Big News: GDP Hits 2-Year High

On August 30, the Commerce Department released its second reading of Q2 Gross Domestic Product. After sluggish growth in the first quarter of 2017, consumer and business spending helped advance our economy in April through June. [3] In fact, the revised reading increased to a 3% annual growth rate, which beat expectations and represented the fastest growth since Q1 of 2015. [4]  

As we predicted in last week's market update, larger core durable goods orders contributed to this positive GDP report. [5]   

Solid Support: Manufacturing Index Jumps

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, which measures business expansion or contraction, reached a 6-year high in August. According to Economist Andrew Hunter, this growth spike could generate GDP growth as high as 4% in the third quarter. That pace would be far above the average during the current economic recovery and would mean the economy is growing more quickly than many people expected. [6]

Of course, we are still in Q3, and any number of details could affect economic growth. We have many important happenings on the horizon that the markets will be watching, including debt-ceiling decisions, tax-reform outcomes, and much more. [7] However, recent data indicates that both consumers and businesses are opening their wallets - and the economy is growing. After 9 years of economic recovery where growth has often been lackluster, this quickening pace is welcome news. [8]  

Looking ahead, we will continue to focus on uncovering the best opportunities for your long-term goals. As more data and insight come in, we will keep you informed every step of the way.  

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Monday: U.S. Markets Closed for Labor Day
Tuesday: Factory Orders
Wednesday: ISM Non-Mfg Index
Thursday: Productivity and Costs, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index


 

Notes: All index returns (except S&P 500) exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5- year and 10-year returns are annualized. The total returns for the S&P 500 assume reinvestment of dividends on the last day of the month. This may account for differences between the index returns published on  Morningstar.com  and the index returns published elsewhere. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.


 
 
 
"I don't have to chase extraordinary moments to find happiness - 
it's right in front of me if I'm paying attention and practicing gratitude."

-Brené Brown

Lobster Mac and Cheese

Serves 8

Ingredients:
  • 16 oz corkscrew pasta 
  • 6 TBSP melted butter, divided 
  • 2 large garlic cloves, minced 
  • ½ cup finely chopped red onion 
  • ¼ cup all-purpose flour 
  • 3 cups whole milk, at room temperature 
  • 1½ cups (6 oz) grated sharp Cheddar cheese 
  • 1½ cups (6 oz) grated Gruyère cheese 
  • 1 TBSP Dijon mustard 
  • ½ cup minced fresh chives 
  • tsp cayenne pepper  
  • ½ tsp salt, divided 
  • ½ tsp freshly ground black pepper, divided 
  • 1 lb coarsely chopped cooked lobster meat 
  • 2 cups oyster crackers, crushed
Directions:

1. Cook pasta until al dente according to package directions. Drain, rinse with cold water, and drain again.

2. Place 4 TBSP melted butter in a saucepot over medium-low heat. Add garlic and onion; cook 5 minutes or until onion is softened. Whisk in flour; cook 1 minute. Pour in milk; bring mixture to a boil over medium-high heat, whisking often. Reduce heat to medium-low, and simmer 3 minutes or until sauce is smooth and thickened.

3. Remove from heat, and whisk in cheeses and next 3 ingredients. Stir in ¼ tsp salt and ¼ tsp pepper. Fold in pasta and lobster. Pour into a greased 3-quart baking dish.

4. Combine crushed crackers and remaining 2 TBSP melted butter. Stir in remaining ¼ tsp salt and ¼ tsp pepper. Sprinkle over casserole. Bake at 375° for 30 minutes or until crust is crisp and sauce bubbles. Let stand 5 minutes before serving.


Recipe adapted from My Recipes [9]

How to Hit ' Knuckleball ' Flop Shots

Flop shots are useful when you've got just a little green to work with. For example, if you're just off the side of a green with a tucked pin, you need a shot that sticks as soon as it lands - it doesn't spin and is "dead" when it hits the green. This shot not only adds diversity in shot-making for the golfer, but is impressive to watch when you pull it off.

This tip shows you the technique for gripping the club, selecting the right club, and executing the shot so the ball lands on the green and does not roll out.

The Setup
Use the most lofted club in your bag, like a 60-degree wedge. Open the face and the stance just as you would a bunker shot. Weaken your grip (for a right hander, turn both hands counterclockwise on the grip). Try to feel that the "v" that is created between the thumb and first finger points to your lead shoulder. The weak grip prevents the face from rotating close during the shot.

The Shot
In the backswing, make sure to hinge the wrists quickly, which sets up a downswing that allows the club face to slide underneath the ball. The face will continue pointing to the sky beyond impact, and the ball will hardly spin off the face so when it lands on the green it won't roll out. Think of a knuckleball in baseball and how little it spins.


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