1. Employment :   Nationally, we have been experiencing a gradual deceleration in Total Nonfarm Employment growth since February of 2015. Virginia briefly bucked that trend and rose above the national average in 2015, only to fall back below it again in 2016. In the first three quarters of 2017, however, we have made progress at closing that gap. Statewide employment growth in the first three quarters of 2017 has been driven by five sectors:  Education and Health Services, Financial Activities, Leisure and Hospitality, Professional and Business Services, and Transportation and Utilities.

Of these five sectors, Education and Health Services and Transportation and Utilities have posted growth rates in Virginia that out-performed the national norm throughout 2015, 2016, and 2017.  Financial Activities and Leisure and Hospitality under-performed the national norm until this year, when they accelerated above it. And perhaps most importantly, with the exception of June and July of this year, statewide employment growth in Professional and Business Services has generally under-performed the national norm since mid-2016. In combination, these trends depict a statewide economy that is potentially on track to close the gap with national employment growth. But, future statewide growth in the Professional and Business Services sector will likely play a decisive role in whether that happens or not.

It is also important to keep in mind that below average performance in several key sectors continues to place downward pressure on Virginia's overall employment trajectory. For example, if year-over-year employment growth in Virginia's Construction, Information, Manufacturing, Professional and Business Services, and Retail Trade sectors had been equal to the national average in those sectors in September 2017, Virginia would have gained 16,388 more jobs that month than it did. That means that the statewide year-over-year increase in Total Nonfarm Employment would have been 1.3%, not 0.9%, and that would have exceeded the national average of 1.2% that month.    

2. Wages :  News on the wage front was mixed. Although Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings in Virginia exceeded the national average in September 2017 ($27.43 in Virginia vs. $26.49 nationally), average hourly earnings have been growing more slowly in Virginia than the national average since May 2017 and the gap between the two increased to 1.6% in September (1.3% year-over-year growth in Virginia vs. 2.9% nationwide) .

 

3. Labor Force Participation :  Labor force participation, the proportion of the 16 and over population that is either employed or looking for work, fell precipitously during the recession both in Virginia and nationally. In Virginia, that trend began to reverse in July 2016 as the year-over-year change in labor force participation turned positive. Moreover, throughout 2017 Virginia's growth in labor force participation has continued to accelerate while the national labor force participation rate has level off. Overall, approximately 85,227 additional workers entered Virginia's labor force between September 2016 and September 2017.

 

4. Unemployment :   In September 2017, Virginia's seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate was 3.6%, below the national rate of 4.1%, and down from 4.2% the year before. Moreover, that decline was driven entirely by a decrease in the number of individuals who were unemployed (down 26,560) and an increase in the number of individuals who were employed (up 105,787), relative to September 2016.