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T
his Week from Jesse Hurst
Jesse W. Hurst, II
CFP® CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™
AIF
® ACCREDITED INVESTMENT FIDUCIARY
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Over the next 90 days, heading into the mid-term elections, you are likely going to be hearing much about immigration and its impact on our great country.
This is not a new subject for Americans to deal with. The link to the video below shows the history of people coming to the United States since the year 1820. Each dot equals 10,000 new immigrants coming to the United States. This video vividly traces the journey of people from all over the world to the United States over nearly two centuries.
These days, immigration is an emotionally charged topic. There are issues of security and public safety. There are issues of compassion and humanity. There are financial issues related to having enough workers to fill jobs. As baby boomers retire, young families today are not having enough children to replace those retiring out of the workforce. We can hope for a more civil discord and broad-based solutions around these issues.
However, we know that people of the world have an insatiable appetite for the opportunity of a better life that America has always promised them. This video puts immigration and its history in perspective and reminds us that many of us can all trace our heritage to one of these dots.
Jesse
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Weekly Market Commentary
August 27, 2018
The Markets
Tick, Tock.
Not everybody loves meetings and even fewer enjoy reading the minutes, but investors make an exception with the Federal Reserve. This week the Fed published the minutes from its August 1meeting. While no changes were made to interest rates, the minutes did provide insight to how the Fed sees the U.S. economy.
Key Insights:
- The economy is strong. The economy is poised for its best annual growth in a decade due to stimulation from tax cuts and federal spending. The current nine-year bull market is about to be the longest bull market in history and the stock market hit a new high last week. Inflation is back to the 2 percent range, after missing for several years, and the already tight labor market continues to tighten, reported The Wall Street Journal.
While the Fed remains concerned about the risks of inflation, it also is concerned about slowness in the housing market. Home building has declined from to a labor shortage due to higher cost in materials from tariffs, according to The New York Times.
- When will the Fed stop raising rates? The Fed is all but guaranteed to raise rates in September, with market odds at a 96 percent probability and a 60 percent probability for another hike in December. The Fed will continue its gradual interest rate increases for now as long as economic activity is consistently expanding at a sustainable rate. The minutes revealed the Fed governors will soon revise its policy stance from "accommodative to neutral," reported MarketWatch.
- What does the Fed think about tariffs? The Fed is aware tariffs could derail their initial plan of steady rate hikes. Although concerned about President Trump's tariffs, they are waiting for economic data to assess the damage. They did, however, say tariffs would have "adverse effects on business sentiment, investment spending, and employment. Moreover, wide-ranging tariff increases would also reduce the purchasing power of U.S. households," reported The New York Times.
The Fed is content, for now, with their current policy stance of steady rate hikes, but are on edge as they wait to see how fiscal policy plays out in the data. The Fed is more than likely not to raise rates two more times this year given the strength of the economy
Data as of 8/24/18
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1-Week
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Y-T-D
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1-Year
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3-Year
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5-Year
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10-Year
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Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
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0.9%
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7.5%
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17.9%
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14.9%
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11.6%
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8.3%
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Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
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1.5
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-5.5
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1.4
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7.2
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2.8
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1.4
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10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
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2.8
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NA
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2.2
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2.0
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2.8
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3.9
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Gold (per ounce)
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1.6
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-7.6
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-7.1
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0.9
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-2.8
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3.8
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Bloomberg Commodity Index
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0.4
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-5.1
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0.2
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-0.9
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-8.5
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-8.0
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DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index
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-0.9
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3.9
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6.7
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10.4
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10.4
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8.0
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S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
How would you ask for a raise?
When CNBC asked business author Suzy Welch how someone should ask for a raise she explained, "The key...is an approach that includes research and emphasizes your achievements." She recommended three basic steps:
1. Time your request right.
Ask after a big win, a positive performance review, or when being asked to accept more responsibility.
2. Prove your case.
Be prepared to explain why you deserve a raise, including your achievements and results.
3. Establish a time frame for action.
If your boss isn't prepared to provide an answer immediately, end your meeting by asking when you can expect a response.
This is sound advice.
When Willy Appelman of Fast Company asked children at the Underhill Playground how they would ask a boss for a raise, the kids believed the keys to success were good manners, hard work, baked goods, and physical appearance. Here are some of their recommendations:
- "Ask them politely and say: Can I please have a raise because I've been really working hard this week."
- "Go up to your boss and say: Is it okay if I have some more money?"
- "Be confident and try your best."
- "I would give them desserts, like pastry and cookies."
- "Make sure you look weaker than your employer so they have power and they might feel merciful..."
If you recently received a raise or a bonus (or expect to), you may want to give some serious thought to how you will to use the additional income - spend it, save it, or do some of both - and how your choices will affect your taxes. If you'd like to discuss your options, give us a call.
Weekly Focus - Think About It
"The tax advisor had just read the story of Cinderella to his four-year-old daughter for the first time. The little girl was fascinated by the story, especially the part where the pumpkin turns into a golden coach. Suddenly she piped up, 'Daddy, when the pumpkin turned into a golden coach, would that be classed as income or a long-term capital gain?'"
--Unknown
Jesse Hurst
P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we will ask for their permission to be added.
Securities offered through Impel Wealth Management, Member FINRA/SIPC.
* These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative's Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
*To unsubscribe from the Impel Wealth Management please reply to this e-mail with "Unsubscribe" in the subject line, or write us at 2006 4th Street, Cuyahoga Falls, OH 44221.
Sources:
https://www.fastcompany.com
(In the Video section, click on 'Advice On How To Get A Raise... From Kids'; responses occurred at 29, 33, 44, 51, and 54 seconds from the start of the video)
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Impel Wealth Management
2006 4th Street, Cuyahoga Falls, OH 44221
P: 330.800.0182 TF: 844.422.5550 F: 234.312.0460
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