Modernizing Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimations

In 2023, NOAA and PSL charged The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to recommend the best approach to modernizing Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimations. Current approaches were developed decades ago and do not account for observed changes in climate.

PMP estimates are used by engineers to ensure high-hazard infrastructure is designed to withstand the most extreme precipitation events to ensure the safety of the surrounding communities.

In June, the National Academies' committee of precipitation and engineering experts released their comprehensive PMP report. PSL, which is leading a NOAA team on this Bipartisan Infrastructure Law project, is now reviewing the recommendations and developing the long-term research approach that will improve the accuracy of these vital scientific estimates.

PSL is helping to strengthen wildfire weather prediction efforts in complex terrain by building new weather observation units throughout the western U.S in partnership with NOAA's Global Systems Laboratory, Global Monitoring Laboratory, and Air Resources Laboratory. Complex terrain has notoriously unpredictable weather, which makes fire weather prediction more difficult. These units—four fixed facilities, two mobile stations, and a meteorological drone (shown above)—are part of an initiative funded by the 2022 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. 

The data gathered from the fixed and mobile units will help NOAA better understand the weather dynamics in areas that are known to have a high risk of wildfires and can be greatly affected by constant changes in wind and other factors due to the challenging terrain. This can lead to improvements in wildfire forecasting and understanding, and through NOAA Research’s data assimilation and model development work, improved numerical weather prediction models run by the National Weather Service.

New England research project to boost off-shore wind power generation

NOAA, the Department of Energy, and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, in collaboration with other academic and non-profit entities, have launched a research field project—the 3rd Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3)—on and off the southern New England coast to help improve off-shore wind forecasts. Improved offshore wind forecasts will help stabilize wind power generation as off-shore wind power fluctuates.

PSL deployed various meteorological instruments on the shores of Nantucket (MA) and Block Island (RI) in late 2023 and has been collecting data and servicing the instruments throughout 2024. The Department of Energy and Woods Hole have deployed instruments on the shores of Narragansett (RI) and Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard (MA). At sea, the Department of Energy and Woods Hole deployed a barge with similar meteorological instruments this past summer. NOAA, including PSL, will be sailing a NOAA Research vessel in December to continue instrumentation readings in the rougher winter environment. 

The project will use all of these on and off-shore instruments to gather data on wind and weather patterns until October 2025. This data will help refine NOAA's weather prediction models, supporting efficient renewable energy use, grid reliability, and savings for consumers and utilities. The improved models will also benefit mariners, aviators, and search and rescue teams.

PSL radars on the Hurricane Hunters

PSL's W-band cloud radar is being used by NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML)'s Hurricane Research Division to fly on the NOAA P-3 N43 aircraft, nicknamed “Miss Piggy”, throughout the 2024 hurricane season as part of the annual Hurricane Field Prediction/Advancing the Prediction of Hurricanes Experiment (APHEX) field campaign.

This radar is designed to capture detailed vertical profiles of light rain, clouds without rain, sea spray, and fog beneath the aircraft. It can measure the size of raindrops, the amount of water in clouds, and the vertical movement of air within clouds. The data collected helps APHEX better understand and predict hurricane paths, strength, structure, and related dangers and improve hurricane models. The W-band cloud radar is also collecting data over many stretches of the ocean in the marine boundary layer and lower to middle atmosphere, which is of research interest across PSL.

Also flying on “Miss Piggy” this season is the Wide Swath Radar Altimeter (WSRA) instrument developed and supported by PSL in partnership with ProSensing. WSRA is a unique instrument that produces detailed maps of ocean wave height, wave speed and direction, rainfall rate, and sea surface roughness. This information is used in research activities and for real-time forecast guidance by the National Hurricane Center.

Capotondi wins AGU's Harald Sverdrup Lecture Award

Antonietta Capotondi of PSL’s Atmosphere-Ocean Processes and Predictability Division for being awarded the 2024 Harald Sverdrup Lecture Award by the American Geophysical Union (AGU)!

Dr. Capotondi is the lead author of “A global overview of marine heatwaves in a changing climate.”, recently published in Communications Earth & Environment.

As stated by AGU, the Harald Sverdrup Lecture recognizes outstanding contributions to, as well as unselfish promotion of cooperation in, atmospheric and oceanographic research. This lecture was named in honor of the life and work of the geophysicist, Harald Sverdrup. A lecturer is selected annually.

Fairall wins NOAA Distinguished Career Award

Chris Fairall of PSL’s Boundary Layer Observations and Processes Division won the 2023 NOAA Distinguished Career Award “for outstanding contributions to NOAA's understanding of atmosphere-ocean interactions, and effective communication of this information to the nation.”

Dr. Fairall, a research physicist, has spent decades studying how the ocean and atmosphere interact within Earth’s climate system, from El Niño to hurricanes. He has pioneered air-sea observing systems on NOAA ships and aircraft, advancing technologies for directly measuring air-sea exchanges, including breakthroughs such as the direct measurement of carbon dioxide. Dr. Fairall has taken part in nearly 50 research missions, from the Tropics to the Arctic icecap.

The Distinguished Career Award “honors contributions on a sustained basis and a body of work, rather than a single defined accomplishment. In addition, this award recognizes significant accomplishments across all NOAA program areas and functions that have resulted in long-term benefits to the bureau’s mission and strategic goals.”

Grell wins PROUD Award - Excellence in Action

Evelyn Grell of PSL’s Modeling and Data Assimilation Division was recently awarded the PROUD Award for Excellence in Action by the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC).

Evelyn was lauded for her "outstanding grasp of weather phenomena across various scales and a deep knowledge of NOAA's numerical weather prediction models", insightful observations and analyses, as well as her "exemplary work ethic and collaborative spirit."

The DTC is a "distributed facility where the numerical weather prediction community can test and evaluate new models and techniques for use in research and operations."

Read the award announcement from DTC

Wilczak wins NOAA Bronze Medal

Jim Wilczak of PSL’s Boundary Layer Observations and Processes Division was awarded the NOAA Bronze Medal in Scientific or Engineering Achievement as part of the team that developed and implemented Air Quality Model v6 to significantly advance operational air quality predictions for the Nation.

Dr. Wilczak, a research meteorologist, focuses on the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer, including the relationship of the boundary layer to renewable energy and to air quality. He leads the PSL Renewable Energy team, as he has worked over the past decade to advance our knowledge of how weather and climate impacts wind and solar energy generation.

Dr. Wilczak is the lead author with his renewable energy team on “A multi-decadal analysis of U.S. and Canadian wind and solar energy droughts” recently published in the Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy.

The highest honor awarded by the Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, the Bronze Medal recognizes federal employees for superior performance and is awarded to individuals, groups (or teams), and organizations.