ISSUE 166, February 09, 2026

Bleeding Bushels: Take Charge and Make Effective Changes Now

By: Blaise D. Boyle, Director of Seed and Agronomy

To keep expenses in check, growers must rethink everything from fertilizer use, planter prep, active pest programs, and how better to manage field borders.


Farmers today are staring down another tight-margin year. Don’t wait for the markets to force your hand. It’s time to get in front of the upcoming decisions now.


Growers again need to be looking for places to trim costs on their own farms without trimming bushels. At the same time, look for ways to protect the practices that make money, while being brutally honest about addressing the ones that don’t deliver. Let’s look at four areas where making changes can potentially add bushels to your bin.


1. Fertilizer Usage: Time for Higher Scrutiny

It’s time to tighten your fertility program this year. Phosphorus (P) is critical for good root development in colder soils. Check your levels and know what you are up against before planting. Know how much you need to purchase and maintain core programs.


Resharpen your pencil on overall nitrogen strategy. Push to match rates to realistic yield goals instead of falling back on old application habits. Evaluate your nitrogen use efficiency. How many pounds are you doing? Fine tune that to what your realistic yield goal is. Understanding your fertilizer levels and timing of application ultimately affect your crop’s development, leading to potentially higher yields.


2. Planters: Every Seed Counts

The planter has the potential to be one of the biggest sources of extra bushels on the farm, bushels that come from doing the planting basics at a higher level.


If you are going to spend any extra time cutting back on anything, there is one place you don’t, and that’s the planter. This is the one piece of equipment it takes to get those free extra bushels. A successful planter pass starts long before the first seed hits the ground. Planters need to be prepped and maintained well before spring planting begins. This is done by replacing any worn parts and calibrating meters.


Once planters are in the field, plan to put precision ahead of speed. Consider this: are you still sacrificing bushels by chasing acres at 8 to 10 mph instead of prioritizing singulation and even emergence? Planting goals today should be simple, not complicated. Every seed in the right spot, at the right depth, ideally on the same day, so the crop comes up as uniform as possible.


3. Fungicides and Herbicides: Sometimes It’s the Unknown

When it comes to fungicides, or other disease issues, budget as if it’s going to show up this season, especially this year. That application has got to be within your budget and consider going the extra step and budgeting a second later-season fungicide application.


Herbicides, on the other hand, ask yourself: is there room to modify and trim? No longer can you look at your operation than you can and give it a one-size-fits-all program. Instead, plan to spend on fields with actual weed pressure. Better yet, look site-specific to save dollars too. Just remember, the bottom line is to know the value of what it takes to keep those free bushels.


4. Manage Your Field Borders: Reduce Waste

Outside passes no longer can or should be treated like prime-yielding ground. At borders of fields, consider cutting back on planting population and fertilizer, gradually then ramp up as you move back into the field.


Technology today gives growers tremendous advantages if used right. Reconsider how you look at the first 40 feet. Are they really adding bushels, or can I drop those populations back? On the next pass, increase the population, and then once in prime-yielding ground, finally plant at full field populations. Always note that basic fertility needs to be maintained but no longer treat the borders as top-producing acres. In my view, they’re the one logical place for growers to save on high-tech seed costs.


At Columbia Grain International, we are always looking at ways for growers to find the extra free bushels in their operation. Give us a call and see how we can help you add free bushels this year to your operation.

DURUM

Ryan Statz, Merchant

• Throughout the last few months, markets have continued to trade in a tight, range-bound fashion.
• Global S&D’s continue to pressure markets from the top end, while subdued interior values continue to support prices to some degree. 
• While typically slow movement occurs throughout Jan/Feb, the open and less threatening weather we have received has allowed durum supply to continue to flow into commercial channels. This is a bit abnormal for this time of year at these values. Overall, front-end delivered markets are feeling the pressure and responding with less-than-desired values.
• There is some strength being shown in April/May windows, where forecasted flows slow domestically (due to planting) and pre-harvest conditions (tighter supply) occur abroad.
• The markets still see big supplies, big crops domestically and abroad, with no increase in demand. 
• In general, yes, prices are pressured, but there is currently a lot of grain in the country, and increased focus is being put on significant end-of-the-year carry-out figures that are being projected. Thus, many are using any open weather window to dwindle down on bins that are fuller than typical.
• Other notes:             
• Algeria covered their Feb/March demand in big fashion, mostly from North America. This was expected, and the big question remains: will they need to cover more for April before their local new crop harvest in May?

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT

Ryan Statz, Merchant 

• Like many other commodities, the market sees big supplies, big crops domestically and internationally, with no increase in demand.
• Additionally, open weather to start the year allowed for busy hauling in MT, along with cheaper rail freight, which kept a lid on basis the past few weeks.
• In the deferred markets, with abundant and cheap crops internationally, U.S. markets will be subject to the demand game and the pressure that ensues to move our crop. Will we see a summer push from the grower ahead of harvest, or will carry-out stocks balloon as advertised?
• Additionally, ’26/27 acreage estimates continue to be drilled in on. On January 12, the USDA published its first look at these estimates: 
• Overall, the U.S. is forecasted to have nearly identical planted HRW acreage in ’26 as the prior year ’25.
• In Montana, ’26 estimates show 1,900,000 planted acres compared to 2,250,000 planted acres in ’25, a 16% decrease. 
• In late January, most of the Midwest, Plains, and Southern tributary HRW pockets received a blast of cold, harsh weather conditions that gave the market some unease and supported values with winterkill threats. While it will take time for effects to be fully defined, many are reeling back on ringing the alarm bells and assessing the event as being less disastrous than originally feared.
• Still very little, if any, coverage of HRW to China.
• Summary: big world supplies, plenty of world offers, with no increase in overall demand.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT

Justin Beach,

Red Wheat Product Line Manager 

We have seen a bit more volatility in the spring wheat market over the past few weeks; however, the market has still been subject to a range-bound trade. The selling pressure from the Canadians remains relentless, and it feels as if their cumulative short is very large and growing. Capacity is tight up there through March, but the bulk of the business is late March through April.



Will there be a short squeeze? Or will the farmer up north bail out the Canadian commercial system? Domestic millers are largely booking out to April-May, and I’ve heard a few comments about decreased domestic flour sales.


North Dakota shippers are reporting an uptick in movement and farmer sales, but nowhere near overwhelming volumes, and it was much needed for the market. BNSF secondary freight remains quite tame, and recovery following the most recent cold snap was brisk.


Off the PNW, we continue to see routine demand and small, incremental tranches of Southeast Asia demand. Overall, demand feels better, but we are still rationing versus the Canadians. This market will need a weather story or reduction in acres to catch a rally, as the weaker dollar seems to have run its course.

SOFT WHITE WHEAT

Steve Yorke, Merchant

We finally got back to the $6.00-mark last week, but it only lasted for a few hours as sell orders were hit and the exporter bought what they needed for nearby sales. Export business has been steady, but we are not seeing any swing business, which is needed to end the marketing year on a high note and to be able to hit the USDA’s final export projection of 210 MBU (marketing year ends May 31). Our figure comes in a little lower at 200 MBU.


Of course, we don’t see new crop SWW until early July, so any business in June will also eat into the old crop stocks, which are currently sitting in the 70 to 80 MBU range, on the higher end. CCC/Gov business has been missing for some time now, so we can’t count on that moving forward. Also, with Australia’s huge crop all tucked away and ready for export, I don’t see a big change to the export side for U.S. white wheat.


Last week, futures rallied nicely on weather issues across the U.S. but have quickly faded this week. Chicago September futures ran up to the $5.75 mark but quickly retreated. Fundamentals still weigh heavy on these markets, and until we see a shift in demand or evidence of winter kill, these rallies will be short-lived.


As always, have your orders in and work to ensure success. Watch for upcoming grower meetings at the Wilma office. If you would like more information, please reach out to Amanda Beale.

https://columbiagrain.com/producer-solutions/

Joe Foley,

Product Line Manager – Corn & Soybeans 



CORN

Corn prices have slowly regained some 50 pct of the recent selloff following the bearish WASDE report released last month. There wasn’t much “tweet effect” from the Trump-Xi announcement, and prices are relatively stable as U.S. exports remain very competitive on the world stage.


Carryout projections in the U.S. still exceed 2.0 billion bushels; however, the latter serves as significant headwinds to higher prices. Argentina has received some much-needed rains, and Brazil safrinha (winter corn) planting is largely on average pace as their soybeans are harvested.


Export commitments from the U.S. remain on record pace at 58.7 mmt, exceeding a year ago by 13.6 mmt (535 million bushels). The PNW continues to be the cheapest landed corn for Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and occasionally Vietnam, which is providing a suitable outlet for North Dakota’s record corn crop (711 million bushels).


We expect the PNW to remain competitive through at least July, after which Brazil may be more formidable competition, assuming a normal corn crop (135 mmt).

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures suddenly have broken out of their recent range following another Trump tweet, suggesting that China is considering the purchase of another 8 mmt of old crop U.S. soybeans. Details and verification by the Chinese are lacking, as usual, so the market will need to see verification of any potential (counter-intuitive) grain flow for the balance of this crop year.


Recall Brazil is some 10 to 15 pct harvested now on world record soybean production (180 to 184 mmt), and their cash is some 26 to 27.00 per mt cheaper on a N. China landed basis. Nevertheless, the market reaction was sudden and pronounced, with some follow-through buying early today.


Brazil cash premiums broke following the tweet, which makes the math yet more difficult. We have seen very engaged producer selling subsequently, which is probably a good idea given the lack of details or confirmation of any additional business. Export sales released today showed a seasonal decline, with year-to-date commitments currently lagging last year by 8.6 mmt.


China, despite their recent return to U.S. markets, is 10.5 mmt behind a year ago following their absence last fall. Watch for the latest tweet and any confirmation of additional Chinese buying going forward.

BARLEY

Matthew Schorn, Merchant

Malt Demand and Price Trends

• We continue to see a weak demand story on malt barley heading into the next crop year, as consumer preferences shift away from beer and other alcohol.
• Indications on pricing in any open market are comparable to current feed markets.
• The large Canadian crop continues to weigh on the market, pressuring both old and new crop values. 

Canadian Domestic Feed Market

• Feed markets continue to grind sideways in the nearby positions, as feeder demand seems well covered.
• Canadian export demand continues to price above domestic parity, but the size of the crop and its proximity to local feed demand has kept the spread wider than it has been historically.
• Year-over-year cattle placements are lower, which will reduce overall feed demand in a year anticipated to have an abundant supply of feed grains.
• A weaker USD against the CAD has made U.S. corn competitive in the feed ration with barley and wheat. Having an abundance of feed grain options at similar price levels will limit any upside on barley values going forward.

Lentils

Samuel Stevens

Lentil prices continue to trade at depressed levels, reflecting ample global supply. However, there has been renewed interest from Indian buyers in recent weeks, particularly targeting lower-grade lentils as they look to capitalize on the large North American crop and attractive pricing. Despite this demand, international brokers remain cautious about committing to new-crop positions. Ongoing concerns around quality variability are making export customers hesitant, which is limiting forward sales opportunities and keeping a lid on price recovery.

Field Peas

With large field pea crops coming out of both Argentina and Canada, green pea supplies remain ample. As a result, prices are expected to hold at current levels or drift slightly lower. End-user demand has been sluggish, largely due to ongoing tariff uncertainty, which is keeping buyers from entering the market in large volumes. This situation is being further compounded by extremely low import volumes from China, with the bulk of their limited purchases sourced from Russia, reducing demand for other exporting origins.

Chickpeas

With the large 2025 chickpea crop across North America, prices are likely to continue to come under gradual pressure as the market transitions toward new crop. Early 2025 export demand had been softer than hoped, with Pakistan notably slow to buy during the initial round of tariff-related disruptions, adding to downside price risk with new crop pricing coming.

Dry Beans

Contracting on new crops has begun, and farms have started to sign up acres as prices are being set. A continuation in a trend of large-yield crops from Mexican farmers is leading to a slow turnaround in bean pricing. Getting through previous year’s crop inventories will be the main factor in determining when there will be a price move. This will be a very slow burn, as there is still a healthy quantity of unsold beans down in Mexico.

Flax

Sean Ferguson, Merchant

The flax market has been lackluster over the past few weeks. Prices have traded flat amid a mix of limited grower selling and steady demand in North America. Despite solid domestic demand, stocks remain plentiful, which will keep a lid on prices. StatsCan will release their December stocks report for Canadian flax; stocks are expected to be in line with 2022 ending stocks. The average trade estimate is within the 450–475K metric tonne range. Additional year-over-year acreage growth is expected, which will further pressure prices. Russian/Kazakh flax continues to trade at a discount to North American origin flax, which is not supportive of domestic values. Any waning of domestic demand will surely be reflected in prices paid to the grower.

The recent news in the canola market has been the U.S. Treasury’s release of updated 45Z tax credit rules for biofuel blending. The proposed provisions establish eligibility and credit calculation rules. We are now entering the 60-day comment period, during which the Treasury will receive industry feedback to refine the regulations, so nothing is set in stone yet. There remains uncertainty over which oils will qualify for the tax credit, how much the tax credit will be worth for respective oils, and which origins are accepted (i.e., strictly domestic, strictly North American origin, etc.).


Next up in the biofuel realm will be the RVO mandates and official rules for imported RINs. This is separate from 45Z. The EPA is expected to come out with updated rulings by the end of March.


In other news, the U.S. recently agreed to a trade deal with India, under which the U.S. is expected to drop tariffs on India to 18 percent in exchange for India halting purchases of Russian energy. This is supportive of vegetable oil values, as India is one of the largest vegetable oil buyers in the world. Argentina is the largest supplier of vegetable oil to India, but with current values out of the U.S., expect U.S. soy oil to begin working its way into India.


In similar news, the soy market has caught steam off the heels of recent tweets, or “Truth Social posts,” from President Trump. President Trump explained the U.S. and China have agreed upon a recent trade deal that includes the purchase of 20 MMT of soybeans for this crop year and 25 MMT for next year, values more in line with historical exports to China pre-2022. Keep in mind, the decrease in soy exports to China is as much attributed to the increase in South American soy production as it is to geopolitical issues between the U.S. and China.


Now, the skies look clear for canola; however, keep in mind canola is expected to be in a similar situation to flax, as North American carryout is not expected to be minimal.

Your Grain, Their Story: A New Japanese “Farm to Table” YouTube Channel

At Columbia Grain International (CGI), we often talk about how your grain is part of a global food chain. Today, we want to share a clear example of where that chain leads.


One of our long-standing partners in Japan, Nisshin Marubeni Feeds (NM Feeds), has launched a new YouTube channel that highlights Japanese farmers and aquaculture producers who rely on high-quality feed to do their work every day.

Introducing FARM to TABLE – Stories from the Farm


https://www.youtube.com/@FARMtoTABLE-Story

Although the videos are in Japanese, English subtitles can be turned on using the settings (gear icon) in the YouTube player.


The FARM to TABLE – Stories from the Farm channel follows producers across Japan and showcases their commitment to animal care, consistency, and quality production practices.


Each episode focuses on a different operation, including:

• A Matsusaka beef producer that has won a top national Wagyu prize
• A pork producer in Hokkaido fully supplied by NM Feeds
• A large-scale egg producer focused on consistent quality
• A red sea bream aquaculture operation developing a branded product for the Japanese market
  

The goal of the channel is to show consumers, and partners like you, how much care and expertise go into producing premium beef, pork, eggs, and fish in Japan.


In many cases, the animals on these farms are fed rations formulated with grains sourced from North and South America, including crops grown by CGI’s farmer partners.


Why We’re Sharing This with You:


We see this as an opportunity to:

• See the other end of the chain: how grain exported from the U.S. supports high-value livestock and aquaculture production in Japan.
  
• Understand your impact: grain quality and cropping decisions influence feed performance, which ultimately affects the quality of meat, eggs, and fish enjoyed by Japanese consumers.
  
• Reinforce the partnership: from your farm, through CGI’s origination and logistics network, to NM Feeds and their customers in Japan, we are all connected by the same supply chain.
  

We encourage you to take a look and, if you find it interesting, share the channel with family or colleagues. It offers a unique window into how your grain contributes to food production on the other side of the Pacific.


Thank you, as always, for your partnership with CGI.

Matt Schorn

This week was another reminder of how quickly opportunities can appear and disappear with volatile markets.


Following a comment from President Donald Trump regarding China’s commitment to purchase additional U.S. soybeans, the market immediately reacted. Prices moved sharply within minutes in a wide trading range, creating a brief but meaningful pricing opportunity.

The minute charts above highlight how fast these moves occurred. This is where Columbia Producer Solutions tools, like Good Till Cancel (GTC) and ratchet orders, prove their value. GTC orders allow producers to capture favorable price moves automatically during sudden spikes, while ratchet orders help protect those gains by adjusting targets higher as the market moves and provide a floor if the market pulls back.


With uncertainty likely to remain a theme, proactive marketing tools like GTC and ratchet orders, as well as the other tools listed below, can help producers manage risk and stay disciplined when the market offers opportunity.

Columbia Producer Solutions Tools

• Basis Contracts
• Hedge-to-Arrive (HTA)
• Accumulator Contracts
• Ratchet Orders
• Cash+

Reach out to your local buyers and managers to review these options, or others, on our Columbia Producer Solutions platform of marketing tools.