ISSUE 168, March 6, 2026

Today’s New Varieties, One Way to Win the Battle of Tight Margins and Profitability

Blaise D Boyle, Director of Seed and Agronomy

Today’s new grain varieties play a critical role in helping farmers protect profitability in an era of ever-increasing tight margins. Advances in both plant breeding and biotechnology have produced hybrids and cultivars with higher yield potential, improved stress tolerance, and stronger disease resistance. Crops like grain, corn, and soybeans have continued to introduce improved genetics bred to perform consistently across increasingly unpredictable environments. Even incremental yield gains, just a few bushels per acre, can significantly impact the difference between profitability and loss when multiplied across hundreds of acres.

But beyond yield alone, many new varieties are continually improved to manage risk more effectively. Traits including drought tolerance, improved nitrogen efficiency, and enhanced disease packages, to name a few, have helped stabilize production during unpredictable weather patterns. When these crops can maintain performance under stressed environments, farmers can further reduce the likelihood of severe revenue shortfalls. Stronger stands and improved harvestability can lower field losses and reduce drying or handling costs. In these tight-margin years, reducing variability can be just as valuable as boosting top-end yields.

Modern varieties today integrate seamlessly with both existing and new precision agriculture systems, thus allowing farmers to fine-tune planting populations, fertility programs, and crop protection strategies. Data-driven placement of specific hybrids by soil type or productivity zone helps maximize the return on every input dollar. As margins narrow, profitability depends on extracting more value per acre without proportionally increasing cost. By combining advanced genetics with smarter management, today’s grain farmers can use new varieties as a powerful tool to strengthen resilience and maintain profitability despite ongoing market pressures.

At Columbia Grain International, we are always looking for ways to help improve the grower’s bottom line. Through continued valued partnerships, we evaluate the newest and most productive varieties available today. Give one of our local team members a call and see what CGI can do for you and your bottom line.

DURUM

Ryan Statz, Merchant

• Range-bound trade continues to be the theme in durum markets.
• Global S&Ds, along with wide-open U.S. and Canadian January/February weather, continue to pressure markets from the top end, while subdued and non-attractive interior values, leading to limited grower participation, are supporting prices to some degree. 
• While typically slow movement occurs throughout Jan/Feb, the open and less threatening weather we have received has allowed durum supply to continue to flow into commercial channels. This is a bit abnormal for this time of year at these values. Overall, front-end delivered markets are feeling the pressure and responding with less-than-desired values.
• There is some strength being shown in April/May windows, where forecasted flows slow domestically (due to planting) and pre-harvest conditions (tighter supply) occur abroad.
•  Markets are focused on:
• How North American and global ending stocks will shake out.
• How North African, Mediterranean, and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all analyses show favorable conditions for world durum production zones, with reports of very few issues thus far.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT

Ryan Statz, Merchant 

• The below two charts represent a lot of what the market has been talking about over the last few weeks. 
• The bulls will talk about the current U.S. drought conditions map (see below). No doubt, it is dry in a lot of our HRW footprint. Dryness has gotten increasingly worse over the last few weeks. Dryness is also getting worse in the southern plains (OK, TX). Yes, it is still only early March, and we have time for things to improve, but it is very notable.
• The bears will talk about the chart which illustrates the size of the record world wheat crop. This global record crop is exacerbated by the fact that our PNW competitors make up most of the ‘said’ record. Competition is fierce to move wheat. If the U.S. wants to keep stocks from ballooning, we need to be cheaper, or the rest of the world needs to move prices higher (right now this isn’t happening). Years ago, PNW used to only have a few competitors. Now there is competition everywhere you look, and all are desperate to move their ‘record’ stocks.

• Like many other commodities, the market sees big supplies and big crops domestically and internationally with no increase in demand.
• With abundant and cheap crops internationally, U.S. markets will be subject to the demand game and the pressure that ensues to move our crop. Will we see a summer push from the grower ahead of harvest, or will carry-out stocks balloon as advertised?
• Summary: dry conditions, big world supplies, plenty of world offers with no increase in overall demand. 

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT

Justin Beach,

Red Wheat Product Line Manager 

Spring wheat continues to be a follower of the winter wheat complex, which has buoyed prices over the past two weeks. This brought increased cash selling, but the commercial system certainly did not get overwhelmed. The next two weeks will be about geopolitics, and we will enter more of a weather market. The firmness in the dollar will not be our friend moving forward if we continue to trade around these levels. Traders will also be increasingly discussing planting intentions. We believe Canada will see decreases in wheat acreage and increases in canola. Last year we saw acreage north of the border flow from canola to spring wheat, and we believe that it reverses this year. The Canadians continue to keep their foot on the gas while the U.S. attempts to keep the spread at similar levels to the past two weeks.

Flour demand for AMJJ remains quiet, but we are seeing increased milling interest this week, so flour may be trading. It feels as if there could be some life in basis in the East, but our concern is much of that going to transportation costs across the pipeline. We cannot stress the yield sensitivity this upcoming year with low acres, but now it continues to feel like the U.S. system has more than enough wheat.

SOFT WHITE WHEAT

Steve Yorke, Merchant

Finally, some action in the wheat markets over the past few weeks as we saw a nice little weather rally with dry conditions persisting in the U.S. wheat regions, along with the onset of a Middle East war that pushed spec traders to cover shorts across the board. White wheat shot up to $6.10/BU, the high for the calendar year, but has since settled back to $6.05/BU. Grower selling has been very light as we head into spring seeding time, but export sales have also been light, so cash prices remain in a tight range (600–610) and will most likely remain that way unless we see a change in demand.

Export sales this week were weak and currently sit at 183 MBU for white wheat. Hitting the USDA estimate of 210 MBU by the end of May does not look obtainable and will most likely land in the 195–205 MBU range. Still a healthy number, but not enough to lower our burdensome ending stocks (+50–60 MBU).

With all this market volatility, have your orders in and working, and always feel free to reach out to your local grain buyer to discuss strategy for old and new crops.

https://columbiagrain.com/producer-solutions/

Joe Foley,

Product Line Manager – Corn & Soybeans 



CORN

Row crops are enjoying a continuation of higher prices. May corn futures are up about ten cents since our last recap, following the ongoing record pace of exports, especially from PNW. U.S. open sales + shipments for this crop year stand at nearly 65 MMT, surpassing last year’s pace by more than 15 MMT. The PNW is squarely in the mix as well, capturing nearly all the Japan and Korea demand. Indeed, PNW exports through February were 12.4 MMT, more than doubling the pace at this time last year. Fortunately, our ND producers grew a massive (711 million bushels) crop to help stem the robust Asian demand. We expect PNW to remain competitive to Asia at least through July, if not beyond. Elsewhere, Brazil is 60–70 pct complete on their winter corn (safrinha) plantings, and this crop principally serves as their exportable surplus starting in July/August. This would be the potential competition for our summer export programs.

We have a big acreage and stocks report coming up at the end of March which may well drive prices going forward. Nationally we expect a 3–4-million-acre switch from corn to soybeans, but we are hearing steady to more corn acres from our contacts in ND, so stay tuned for further updates.

SOYBEANS

Prices keep chugging higher on optimism for additional China business and, to a lesser extent, following some slightly lower estimates of Brazil’s production. Most observers are estimating 178–180 MMT of Brazil soybean production, which is 2–4 MMT lower than previous ideas. Drier-than-ideal conditions in the south, as well as some damage in the north, are the likely culprits. Still, a record crop is pretty much in the gut slot position now, and even the lower end of estimates would amount to 6–8 MMT larger than last year’s massive crop.

China does have 4 MMT of open sales from the U.S., but additional business has been slow coming. Overall commitments to China still lag a year ago by over 10 MMT, given the lack of our typical October/November program last year. We very cautiously expect a more normal pace of shipments this fall, but Brazil’s big crop, along with Middle East hostilities, are potential hurdles to achieving any sort of normalcy. Currently, there are no open new crop sales to China on the USDA export sales report.

The funds are moderately long soybeans, and they appear comfortable adding to their positions. Any change in sentiment, however, could affect a run for the exits, and the current world hostilities are, in theory, supportive to energy markets and negative for the ag sector. We would be cautious about this calendar year’s $1.10/bu move to the upside accordingly. Watch the March 10 WASDE report and, more importantly, the March 31 stocks and prospective plantings report, as well as any developments with the Middle East fighting.

BARLEY

Matthew Schorn, Merchant

Malt Demand and Price Trends

• New crop malt contracts are on the table, but the underlying message continues to be a weaker demand story for malt barley heading into the next crop year as consumer preferences shift away from beer and other alcohol.
• Initial new crop values are seeing a $0.50–$1.00/bu spread to feed barley, historically on the lower end of a typical malt-feed spread.
• Old crop malt barley is pricing at or below feed barley, with the large Canadian crop continuing to weigh on the market.
• StatsCan is forecasting a 5% increase in barley acres in Canada for the 2026/27 crop year.

Canadian Domestic Feed Market

• Feed markets continue to grind sideways in nearby positions as feeder demand seems well covered and sales drag signals the feeder is overbought.
• Canadian export demand continues to price above domestic parity, but the size of the crop and its proximity to local feed demand have kept the spread wider than it has been historically.
• Year-over-year cattle placements are lower, with some feedlots at 65–70% capacity. Overall feed demand is expected in a year anticipated to have an abundant supply of feed grains.
• Corn is competitive in the feed ration out of Manitoba or North Dakota. This will limit any upside potential for barley.
• Production concerns will be needed to push values higher than currently posted.

Flax

Sean Ferguson, Merchant

StatsCan released its initial estimate of projected acreage for the upcoming crop year. Canadian flax acreage was pegged at 753.2k acres, a 21.4% increase year over year. Prices continue to trade flat as demand remains stagnant, and growers continue to let go of stocks at current bids. The combination of plentiful stocks and an expected sharp increase in acreage is expected to drag prices lower as we move further into the crop year. The wildcard to continue to keep a close eye on is the Eastern European crop.

The canola market has seen fireworks over the past week or so on the heels of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. Energy markets have caught a bid following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran. Approximately 20% of global crude oil consumption flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In a similar vein, the market seems optimistic regarding the EPA’s RVO blending mandates, which will be released before the end of the month. Higher energy values are bullish for biofuel consumption, and when you add in optimism around the EPA’s decision, you have a recipe for higher vegetable oil prices, which have helped support canola futures.



StatsCan’s initial projected acreage for Canadian canola was pegged at 21.839 MM acres, an increase of roughly 1% year over year. At the end of the day, alternate markets will play a role in determining how incremental acreage gets planted. As it currently stands, Canadian overall wheat acreage is expected to be down 1.1%, lentils down 5.5%, and peas down 12.3%. Some could argue Canadian wheat acreage is overestimated and canola subsequently underestimated, which could mean more wheat acres ultimately get planted than canola.

Matt Schorn


A direct conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran began after joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, triggering Iranian retaliation across the region. The greatest escalation risk centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping route between Iran and Oman that is critical to global energy trade. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply moves through this corridor, so any disruption has an outsized impact on global markets. As tensions have risen, energy prices have spiked, shipping rates have increased, and markets are actively pricing in additional geopolitical risk.

Grain and oilseed markets are following energy higher; however, demand has become cautious as uncertainty around commercial freight lanes, insurance availability, and higher transportation costs creates increased volatility across commodity markets.

This is where Columbia Producer Solutions tools such as Good-Till-Canceled (GTC) and Ratchet orders can provide value. GTC orders allow producers to automatically capture favorable price opportunities during sudden market spikes, while Ratchet orders help protect those gains by moving targets higher as the market advances and establishing a floor if prices begin to pull back.

With uncertainty likely to remain a key market theme in the near term, proactive marketing strategies are essential. Tools like GTC and Ratchet orders, along with the additional risk-management options listed below, can help producers manage volatility, stay disciplined, and take advantage of opportunities when the market presents them.

Columbia Producer Solutions Tools:

• Basis Contracts

• Hedge to Arrive (HTA)

• Accumulator Contracts

• Ratchet Orders

• Cash +



Reach out to your local buyers and managers to review these options, or others, on our Columbia Producer Solutions platform of marketing tools.

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

Yuya Takano, Wiley Wang

International Merchants

Corn

Sales have been focused on cover for April–June shipment to Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and parts of Southeast Asia. As more vessels are diverting around the Red Sea and Suez, vessel availability has tightened globally, and ocean freight is on a gradual uptrend. That said, the PNW still has a shorter route than the U.S. Gulf into Asia, so PNW-origin remains competitive in many cases, and major Asian feed millers continue to base the bulk of their coverage on the PNW.

Brazil’s safrinha (second crop) corn is progressing in line with the seasonal average in the main producing areas, but there are reports of moisture deficits and heat stress in some regions, and the extent of the impact on yields is being closely watched. While there are still localized dryness concerns inland, the situation is not viewed as “catastrophic” at this stage. The market is tracking daily weather updates and broadly sees the crop in a bumper-to-average range.

In Argentina, conditions this season are clearly improving versus the drought years of the past few seasons, and production prospects are on a recovery trend. However, uneven growth is being reported due to localized excessive rainfall and low temperatures, so it is still too early to be fully optimistic, and there remains uncertainty until yields are finally established.

Against this backdrop, PNW corn remains competitive, and Asian buyers are widely expected to continue sourcing July shipments primarily out of the PNW.

Soybeans

For Brazilian new-crop soybeans, offers have been increasing as harvest progresses, and aggressive sales continue, mainly into China. Harvest is now in full swing in the main growing regions of Brazil. While high temperatures, dryness, and excess moisture in some areas are causing yield variability, the consensus view is that, on a national basis, the crop will likely come in around “average to slightly above average.”

At the same time, typical harvest-period rainfall has led to some delays in harvesting and concerns about quality (moisture content and damage), and together with congestion at ports, this is keeping logistics on the tight side.

Additional purchases of U.S.-origin soybeans remain uncertain, and for the time being Brazilian origin continues to lead the market in terms of price.

Wheat

Global demand for North American spring wheat has slowed down in the past month, with heavy competition from cheaper origins.

There have been some weather concerns for several different geographic origins, such as winter kill in North America and the Black Sea, and dryness in Argentina and Australia. We need to closely monitor participation for the coming seeding season of spring wheat and Australia’s winter crop in a month or so.

Global ocean freight has also been curbing buyers from coming to market. This will hopefully be relieved once the situation clears up in the Middle East.