ISSUE 167, February 20, 2026

Sulfur Deficiency Trends 
and Yield Impacts

By: Lars Birkeland, Seed Production Agronomist

I recently had the opportunity to attend the Crop and Pest Management School at Montana State University—congratulations to them on winning the National Championship! One of the highlights was a presentation by Dr. Clain Jones, a Soil Fertility Specialist, who shared his research on Sulfur and Chloride fertility. I’d like to share some key takeaways, particularly regarding Sulfur.

The Importance of Sulfur

Sulfur is an essential macronutrient that plays a vital role in plant health. It aids in the synthesis of amino acids and enzymes, contributes to protein formation, and enhances Nitrogen use efficiency. In essence, a deficiency in Sulfur can significantly impact your crop yields.

Challenges with Sulfur Measurement

Unfortunately, measuring soil Sulfur levels can be notoriously challenging. By the time deficiencies become visible in plants, it may be too late to take corrective action.

Trends in Sulfur Deficiency

Over the past 25 years, Montana has seen a steady increase in Sulfur-deficient soils, particularly in the North Central region. Currently, between 30% and 60% of Montana fields are exhibiting signs of Sulfur deficiency, which is concerning.

The Bright Side

The good news is that addressing Sulfur deficiency is straightforward and cost-effective. Dr. Jones presented compelling results from his research, notably in wheat trials, where applying Sulfur to deficient soils resulted in yield increases of 8 to 15 bushels per acre. 

For the first time, Dr. Jones is issuing an official Sulfur recommendation: aiming for a target of 0.27 lbs of Sulfur per bushel yield goal. For instance, a typical 50-bushel crop of wheat would require approximately 13.5 pounds of Sulfur per acre.

As you plan your fertilizer needs for this spring, be sure to account for your Sulfur requirements to maximize your yields. Please reach out to me or your local CGI elevator to discuss your fertilizer and seed needs.

DURUM

Ryan Statz, Merchant

• Range bound trade continues to be the theme in durum markets.
• Global S&Ds, along with wide-open January and first half of February weather, continue to pressure markets from the top end, while subdued and non-attractive interior values leading to limited grower participation are supporting prices to some degree. 
• While typically slow movement occurs throughout January and February, the open and less-threatening weather we have received has allowed durum supply to continue to flow into commercial channels. This is a bit abnormal for this time of year at these values. Overall, front-end delivered markets are feeling the pressure and responding with less-than-desired values.
• There is some strength being shown in April and May windows, where forecasted flows slow domestically due to planting and pre-harvest conditions with tighter supply occur abroad.
• The markets still see big supplies, big crops domestically and abroad, with no increase in demand. 
• In general, yes, prices are pressured, but there is currently a lot of grain in the country and increased focus is being put on significant end-of-the-year carryout figures that are being projected. Thus, many are using any open weather window to dwindle down bins that are fuller than typical.
• Other notes:             
• World weather will attract focus going forward as we hit planting in many places in the world. Thus far, weather and conditions in most origins have been ideal.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT

Ryan Statz, Merchant 

• Like many other commodities, the market sees big supplies, big crops domestically and internationally, with no increase in demand.
• Note, record world production, with many top world exporters falling into this camp. 
•  Additionally, open weather to start the year allowed for busy hauling in Montana. This, along with rallying KC futures combined with cheaper rail freight, has kept a lid on basis the past few weeks.
• A lot of HRW supply is moving into commercial systems.
• With abundant and cheap crops internationally, U.S. markets will be subject to the demand game and the pressure that ensues to move our crop. Will we see a summer push from the grower ahead of harvest, or will carry out stocks balloon as advertised?
• Additionally, 2026/27 acreage estimates continue to be drilled in on. On January 12, the USDA published its first look at these estimates: 
• Overall, the U.S. is forecasted to have nearly identical planted HRW acreage in 2026 as the prior year, 2025. 
• In Montana, 2026 estimates show 1,900,000 planted acres compared to 2,250,000 planted acres in 2025, a 16% decrease. 
• Still very little, if any, coverage of HRW to China. The soybean sector has taken all the attention with the latest news and rumors of additional business being worked on. While not necessarily directly impacting HRW S&Ds, KC futures will do its best to cling to the soybean rally, which we have felt the last two weeks.
• Summary: Big world supplies, plenty of world offers, with no increase in overall demand. 

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT

Justin Beach,

Red Wheat Product Line Manager 

Spring wheat remains range-bound, but we are at the upper end of the range currently. We will begin entering a market that cares more about planted acreage and yield potential and less about global price competitiveness. Domestically, we are hearing reports that flour buyers have been slow to come to the table for summer months, which means there is plenty of demand left; however, bids remain weak.


We have also seen good performance from BNSF and benign weather leading to lower secondary freight values. Farmers haven’t been selling aggressively, but they have certainly been hauling. Export basis remains subdued, largely following the Canadians lower. Capacity up north is tied through mid-April, and they continue to control incremental demand out of Southeast Asia. They’ve been caught too short the past two summers while U.S. farmers hauled aggressively. We are hoping for that setup again.


A reduction of acres coupled with a lackluster yield will be problematic, but we are still in an environment where carryout is growing as we lose demand to the Canadians.

SOFT WHITE WHEAT

Steve Yorke, Merchant

Back to the $6.00 mark last week, and that is where we sit today. Chicago futures opened the week down sharply and have since rebounded back to last week’s levels, but cash white wheat has not moved, a total disconnect with the board lately. This is mainly due to slow grower selling and just enough export business for April and May to keep bids stagnant.

This trend will probably continue unless we see a big change in demand, which at this time is unlikely. Today we sit at 190 MBU for the marketing year, which ends on May 31. As we have mentioned before, the USDA has the final number at 210 MBU, which at this time will be a touch high unless we see some swing business show up. Anything over 200 MBU is great, but this still keeps stocks ending in the higher range.


Our 90-day price range for white wheat is 580 to 620 for old crop. If you still have old crop, look at using a Cash + contract to get a little more for your old crop, and if the option is exercised, you have an HTA established for new crop. Please call your local office for more information and guidance on Cash + contracts and all our other CPS products.

https://columbiagrain.com/producer-solutions/

Joe Foley,

Product Line Manager – Corn & Soybeans 



CORN

Corn prices have been struggling under the pressure of favorable South American weather and a U.S. carryout exceeding 2.0 billion bushels. Exports remain a lonely bright spot in an overall bearish environment. Indeed, open sales and shipments stand at a record pace of 54.2 MMT, exceeding a year ago by over 14 MMT, but the market still needs to digest the largest corn crop ever produced (432 MMT in the U.S.).


Last month’s WASDE report continues to overhang the market, given its surprising increase in last year’s production. Recall most market participants had expected a downward revision. This morning, we see the first glimpse of 2026 acreage intentions following the USDA February outlook projections. Corn acres are projected to drop by nearly 5 million to 94.0 million. Our North Dakota contacts, however, don’t expect any decrease in local plantings following very favorable yields over the last few years, particularly last year.


The March 31 planting intentions and March 1 stocks report will be issued next month and typically is a market-moving event. In the meantime, watch U.S. exports, weather in Argentina, and any macro or China developments for forward price guidance.

SOYBEANS

Values continue to march higher, up 25 cents over the last two weeks, largely in the wake of fund buying and continuing optimism with respect to more China business. This latter input is, of course, a moving target and subject to the latest social media blurbs. However, crop-year sales to China are now up to 10.2 MMT, compared to a year ago’s 20.6 MMT sold at this time.


Harvest in Brazil is progressing with expectations for the largest soybean crop on record, and most observers are calling for in excess of 180 MMT. The U.S. grew 116 MMT last year in comparison. Cash prices in Brazil have been under considerable pressure given their massive production amid fears that politics will shift some additional Chinese demand to the U.S. Recall May shipment soybeans from Brazil are in excess of $1.00 per bushel cheaper than those from the U.S., but it’s unclear how much or whether that figures into political calculations.


February outlook data released today estimates U.S. 2026 acreage to increase 3.8 million acres to 85.0 million, and the carryout estimate is largely on par with this past year at 355 million bushels. Watch for China developments and whether managed money (funds) continues their buying spree for ongoing price direction.

BARLEY

Matthew Schorn, Merchant

Malt Demand and Price Trends

• New crop malt contracts are on the table, but the underlying message continues to be a weaker demand story on malt barley heading into the next crop year as consumer preferences shift away from beer and other alcohol.
• Indications on pricing any old crop malt barley to current feed markets.
• Large Canadian crop continues to weigh on the market, combined with weaker demand, pressuring both old and new crop values. 

Canadian Domestic Feed Market

• Feed markets continue to grind sideways in the nearby positions, as feeder demand seems well covered.
• Canadian export demand continues to price above domestic parity, but the size of the crop and its proximity to local feed demand has kept the spread wider than it has been historically.
• Year-over-year cattle placements are lower, which will reduce overall feed demand in a year anticipated to have an abundant supply of feed grains.

Lentils

Samuel Stevens

After the brief interest from India, they have gone quiet again in the lentil market. There is still a large supply in North America and other regions, making it hard to justify any price pushes from end-use customers in this lethargic market. The oversupply of lentils in North America threatens to keep markets down unless there is a large increase on the demand side, which at this time does not look likely due to India’s relative inactivity. 

Field Peas

Competition remains steep in export markets for field peas. Canada has been able to enter the market again with China’s tariff removal. On top of this, Russia has been playing a big role in China’s pea imports. There has also been a lack of government tenders for split yellow peas compared to previous years. These factors are keeping the market suppressed and indicate that next year’s market could be similar to current market conditions. 

Garbanzos

There is still a heavy North American supply of chickpeas, especially in Canada. Combined with a large Argentinian crop, there is a good chance the market gets weaker. The stable prices today would be a safe bet for farmers looking forward contracting on acres. Right now, Sawyer and Orion varieties are the chickpeas with the best demand potential going into new crop. 

Dry Beans

New-crop competition between dry beans and other crops, combined with the projected large carryout in Mexico, has led to moderately stagnant markets for new-crop pricing. There has been some demand for light red kidney beans and navy beans, which will likely continue into new crops and could lead to a slight increase in acreage compared to last year.

Flax

Sean Ferguson, Merchant

The flax market has traded flat to lower over the past few weeks following the StatsCan estimate of Canadian ending stocks at 464.1K metric tonnes. These ending stocks are the highest seen since 2017. Overall sentiment appears optimistic regarding new-crop acreage in both North America and the Black Sea region.

A combination of this large North American carryout and an increase in acreage year over year will not bode well for pricing going into the new-crop year. A few of the wild cards we are watching are U.S. consumption and Eastern European production. Will there be any substantial increase in U.S. consumption, particularly in the pet food market? It’s possible but unlikely, especially since high-end pet food demand has continued to wane the past few years.


The Eastern European crop remains a wild card, as most of the crop has yet to be planted.

The canola market has continued to show strength the past few weeks on the back of higher energy and, subsequently, higher vegetable oil values. The potential for conflict between the U.S. and Iran has lit a fire under global energy values, which has directly translated into higher vegetable oil prices.


The D4 RIN market continues to catch a bid, indicating increased optimism around biofuel blending. The market continues to await the EPA’s blending mandates, although current RIN prices suggest an optimistic stance. The USDA is projecting a substantial increase in vegetable oil biofuel usage in the U.S. vegetable oil S&D.


Key questions remain. Will foreign imported feedstocks be eligible for credit? If so, which feedstock will qualify? Any reduction in EPA biofuel mandates relative to expected volumes would be detrimental to vegetable oil pricing and, by extension, canola pricing.


Time will tell whether the recent Trump administration revocation of many climate-related regulations eventually bleeds into the biofuel blending subsidies and tax credits currently supporting the industry. Spring crops have yet to be planted, so the market still has time to assess how upcoming acreage will shape up.