ISSUE 155, AUGUST 22, 2025

Lars Birkeland



Not long ago, Montana's harvest schedule was quite straightforward: farmers would first cut their winter wheat, followed by spring wheat and barley. However, today’s agricultural landscape presents a much more intricate timeline. It’s now common for Montana farmers to cultivate a diverse array of crops, including winter wheat, spring wheat, canola, peas, lentils, and chickpeas in a single year. This shift in crop diversity is reflected in the statistics, revealing a decline in planted acres of wheat and barley, while planted acres of pulses have surged—showing nearly a 10% increase from 2024 to 2025.

This evolving trend brings with it heightened challenges in harvest scheduling, exacerbated by a series of unpredictable weather events. Some regions have faced hail damage, while others have been subjected to persistent rainfall. For the second consecutive year, harvest rains have hindered progress and impacted crop quality.

Winter wheat has experienced sprout and falling number issues, along with lower test weights. Pulses have encountered challenges such as bleaching, shriveling, and seed coat integrity concerns. Despite these setbacks, the overall quality of the harvest has remained better than initially anticipated.

While the recent rains have posed challenges during harvest, they have also created favorable planting conditions for our fall-seeded crops. We’ve already begun planting acres for our new non-GMO winter canola program, with many more to follow in the coming week.

Wishing you the best of luck as you continue with the harvest!

SOFT WHITE WHEAT

Steve Yorke, Merchant

White wheat markets have been beat up in the past couple of weeks. We are currently sitting at the low end of the 90-day range of 6.40-6.00.  Steady grower selling and slower demand being the main reasons. We are currently behind last year’s pace by about 19% and will need some business soon to steady the market. Two Korean feed cargos traded last week but nothing new this week. China starting to kick tires so we will keep our fingers crossed.  Overall quality of the white wheat crop has been good with protein coming in around the 10.0% which is slightly below the 5-year average of 10.2%. Test weight is about a half percent above the 5-year average. No falling number issues to report at this time. Watch for upcoming grower meetings this fall in your area to discuss markets and to go over all the tools we have to offer. 

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT

Justin Beach,

Red Wheat Product Line Manager 

The past 2 weeks have brought us stop and start harvest across the northern tier. In Montana we are seeing yields better than expect however it is still a short crop. Limited bin space continues to bring a fair amount of grain to town and quality is faring better than HRW across the board. We are seeing lower DHV and FN than last year but there are pockets of darks and pockets of 50-75 color prevalent. In ND we are seeing strong yields and improvement in quality. Out of the gates it feels as if the ND spring wheat crop is .3-.5% protein higher than last year making the crop much more merchantable domestically. Front end basis levels are feeling very heavy as the moment with a sizable old crop carry-in and the market chewing through new crop. However, it does feel like demand is stacking up for late October and November which should provide some sort of life to the wheat market post-harvest when the wheat is tucked away. It’s hard to get MIAX futures off the mat at the moment with a lot of pent of selling to be done above the market and HRW/Row crop futures weighing on MIAX futures. At some time in the next 30-45 days, it feels like the path of least resistance needs to change to upward momentum given a smaller domestic crop and producer who will not keep participating at these price levels. 

INTERNATIONAL

Yuichiro Kawata

Tomo Watanabe

Wiley Wang

International Merchants

Corn 

• Asian buyers have completed about 70% of their purchases up to the November shipment. 
• Since the FOB PNW is significantly cheaper than other origins, the number of countries finding economic rationality in PNW on a CFR basis is increasing. Normally, the countries purchasing PNW currently are Far Eastern countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. 
• This year, countries in Southeast Asia such as Vietnam and Indonesia are also considering purchasing or have already purchased. Therefore, the demand across this wide range of Asia complements the demand from China. 
• But need to watch that the price advantage over the South American crops are narrowing. Now it is at 10 to 15 cents for Dec position which may or may not be enough to push some end users to change their preference on Brazilian corn. 
• Going forward, it is expected that abundant harvests will apply harvest pressure. 
• Since the volume on both the demand and supply sides is increasing, we want to watch closely which way the price will turn. 

Soybeans 

• Taiwan holds tenders for Nov shipment from PNW. 
• No other buyers move. 
• China imposes a 23% tariff on U.S. soybeans, compared to 3% on Brazilian soybeans, resulting in a 20% difference. 
• Calculating with the current market, PNW soybean would have competitiveness if our FOB were cheaper by $70 = 190SX than Brazil. 
• Without political power such as tariff exemptions, there is no possibility that China will buy U.S. soybeans. 

Wheat 

• Current weather patterns are creating variabilities in the crop qualities especially in the spring wheat. Communication is very important so everyone in the supply chain knows what we have and how to market them. 
• Some of the end users are still looking for Oct; and some Nov businesses are happening as well. 
• Strong competition from CWRS, especially in the absence of their China canola export program. This might intensify going forward. 

Sean Ferguson, Merchant

FLAX

• Russian and Kazakh crops continue to look excellent. 
• Chinese/EU buyers will look to the Black Sea region to fill demand. 
• Canadian flax will look to sustain North American demand. 
• Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the new crop. 
• North Dakota crop conditions continue to look good as crops have seen ample amounts of moisture. 

CANOLA

Perks of Growing Winter Non-GMO Canola: 

• Higher yields compared to spring canola varieties. 
• Great rotational benefits. 
• Breaks pest, disease, and weed cycles when rotated with cereals or pulses. 
• Helps manage grassy weeds. 
• Non-GMO price premium. 
• Lower input costs compared to GMO canola. . 

Canola Market Info: 

• China has implemented a 76% tariff on Canadian canola imports, which has weakened flat canola values. 
• China has begun purchasing Australian canola, which will lead to China being less dependent on Canadian canola. 
• As trade flows shift, expect Canadian canola to begin working its way into the EU. 
• The ICE canola/Matif rapeseed spread is hovering at $75 USD/MT, indicating that Canadian canola is an option for European importers. 
• Uncertainty still surrounds the EPA’s biofuel standards and incentives, which have not supported North American vegetable oil values. 
• Managed money has begun trimming their ICE canola position as Canadian crop conditions continue to look good. 
• This long liquidation has led to weakness in canola futures values. 
• Managed money holds a net 53k contract long, representing 23.3% of the overall ICE canola open interest. 
• Canadian crop conditions continue to look good. 
• Many traders expect the overall Canadian crop to be in the ballpark of 20-21 MMT. 
• US vegetable oils have become more competitive with palm oil on a global scale. 
• This competitiveness should support vegetable oil values and crush margins going forward. 
• The Canadian dollar has been weak over the past few weeks as Canadian inflation values are support lower interest rates from the Bank of Canada. 
• A weaker CAD ultimately translates to cheaper cash canola in the US, which supports crush margins. 

BARLEY

Matthew Schorn, Merchant

No new news to report on tariffs between the US and Canada. Barley continues to be imported into Canada under processing remissions, which allow for tariff exemptions. However, this exemption is scheduled to expire on October 15^th. Behind the scenes, discussions are underway to secure an exemption for U.S. agricultural products—specifically barley—exported to Canada. 

Malt Demand and Price Trends 

• Malt demand remains extremely weak, with limited buyer interest in new crop positions. 
• Harvest is underway after a month of heavy rains in July. Initial quality reports are variable with high and low protein, some sprouting, and a mix of low and high test weight. 
• Despite these quality concerns, there has been no significant impact on market pricing due to the overall lack of demand. 
• Both buyers and sellers appear to be taking a cautious approach, waiting to assess crop quality before making any marketing decisions. 

Canadian Domestic Feed Market 

• The Canadian feed market seems to have found a bottom after a significant drop off the highs. Confidence in crop yields, quality issues in both barley and wheat are contributing to expectations of greater feed grain availability. 
• Feed grain demand for August remains hand-to-mouth, as buyers aim to bridge the gap between old and new crop supplies with harvest delayed by 1-2 weeks compared to prior years. 
• Cattle placements for the new crop are still in progress, making it difficult to assess feed grain demand. Believe cattle numbers will be lower YoY, impacting overall feed demand in a year set out to have an abundance of feed grains. 
• Corn futures seem to have found some support after the USDA report, and basis levels have remained flat in the Lethbridge market. However, U.S. corn is currently not competitive compared to Canadian feed barley or feed wheat. 
• With an abundance of feed grains and lower cattle on feed expectations, this year is shaping up to trade in a narrow range between a feed barley/wheat floor and an imported corn ceiling. 

Phil Symons 

Hindsight marketing is not something that I like to prescribe to, but looking back to history is one of the best guides that we can use to help enhance our ‘predictive intelligence’. One of the most difficult aspects of your farming operation is how and when to sell your grain. Human nature is to second guess yourself or to overanalyze market conditions which can give you ‘analysis paralysis’. Using cost of production is one of the best ways to help build out your marketing plan for a successful return to your farming operation.

I wanted to highlight a few Accumulator contracts that we have had come to maturity this past week. Accumulators are again a tool in the Columbia Producer Solutions platform that is in essence the same tool as an HTA, there are additional aspects to understand on Accumulator contracts when comparing them to HTA contracts. But the Accumulator contracts give you a premium over the traditional HTA contract type.

When looking at some of the wheat Accumulator contracts that came to maturity this past week, we had some significant success stories when comparing the contracts to the current market prices. On average we had both Hard Red Winter wheat and Soft White Wheat contracts that were priced $1.50 per bushel over the existing market price. So, with that averaging $1.50 over the existing market we had some that were well over a $2.00 premium to the current market.

In today’s environment where we are looking to see how low, low is, and we are testing the lows we haven’t seen in many years it is even more difficult to build a plan out. But looking to the cost of production should be our starting point for pricing. Get in touch with your local managers and buyers to look at all the contracting options we have available in our Columbia Producer Solutions platform to help enhance your rate of return and minimize your exposure to the market fluctuations. 

HARD RED

WINTER WHEAT

Ryan Statz, Merchant

• HRW harvest has endured a particularly wild ride that many did not see coming. Much of this was due to the substantial rainfall seen in the Northern Tier the last 45 days. This did a number of things; 
• Increased production. 
• Delayed harvest. As of this writing, there is still HRW harvest happening in Montana. 
• Led to numerous quality deficient pockets. 
• The increased production overwhelmed Aug markets and in turn, plummeted nearby prices and widened carries to OND markets. 
• With market supply nearly set, market will turn to demand and how to navigate the off-quality within. 

• Low flat prices still exist. There are still wide KC/MPLS board carries. And how much of the last 50% of the Montana crop will have quality issues – and to what degree? All factors that will keep HRW interesting. 
• Excellent overall May, June, July demand – but mostly through the Gulf, not the PNW. However, US flat prices are still enticing worldwide… this will lead to continued demand. 
• Currently, PNW is mostly seeing routine demand. 
• US trade deals is also a feature the market is watching… Bangladesh in particular is one market where deals are being finalized. The details are still coming out. 
• We want to wish you a safe finish to harvest! Please keep in touch with your local CGI representative in regard to programs and marketing options on how to ultimately add value to your operations and marketing plans. 

DURUM

Ryan Statz, Merchant

• Stated previously, durum markets have a demand problem and with harvest underway, it is pressuring prices in a significant way. 
• Note that the USDA increased durum production for the ‘25/26 campaign to 87 mbu due to the welcomed July and early Aug rainfall. 
• The market anticipates this pressure to be especially felt in the nearby (Aug/Sept) timeframe. Simply put, harvest production around the world was better than expected and with old crop carry-ins being burdensome, there really isn’t a need for new crop stocks domestically or internationally. 
• The market will reflect this situation with widened carry structures into the Nov-Dec windows when the market can find demand again. 
• In general, prices need to incentivize demand, and it will be the markets job to find it…this likely means thru lower prices. 
• A couple things to watch. We are 20-40% thru harvest in the US depending on the area. 
• With the substantial late season rainfall, there are some pockets of lower quality showing up. Particularly with lower falling numbers, lower hard counts, and some possible signs of disease pressure. 
• Yes, production prospects were aided by the late season rain, but the focus now will be on quality. 
• Again, the USDA took production to 87 mbu…how much of that will be milling? This will dictate how prices react in the next 2-3 weeks. 
• In a nutshell, there is a complete mixed bag of emotions, but it undoubtedly is giving buyers a reason to sit and wait until things shake out. 
• Have a happy and safe harvest! 

PULSES

Matt Searcy, Merchant

Lentils 

Green Lentil markets have been a mixed bag in recent weeks as the North American markets grapple with the quality of harvest post heavy rains. The US Crop is currently ~50%-60% harvest with the eastern side of the start farthest behind. FSA Acreage report was released last week and reaffirmed a large Montana & North Dakota acreage base.

Field Peas

Green pea markets have been active in recent weeks with the delay of Chinese Tariffs for 90 days. It’s a great opportunity in the market to ship Green Peas to the USA’s primary market. There is tariff risk behind the 90-day exception period and unclear how the market will adjust. Yellow Pea markets have been steady to lower as Canada start into their harvest. Global competition continues to be a major headwind for the North American Yellow Pea markets as Russia continues to dominate global trade.

Chickpeas

PNW Sierra Chickpea demand has been steady for larger sizes 9mm/10mm due to the slightly undersized crop. Eastern Montana and Western North Dakota chickpeas are late harvesting due to the heavy rains which promoted new growth and variable maturities. These areas need the heat and rains to hold off for next 10 days to finish the dry-down.  

Dry Beans

Dry Bean markets have maintained a quiet market as Mexico buyers see their national crop continue to get rains. There is grasshopper damage this year in Mexico due to the prolonged drought, but most opinions are that it’s more/less isolated and isn’t a major disruption to the grander market. US FSA Acreage reports came back lower than the June USDA planted acreage reports for both Black Beans and Pintos. Unclear if the reduction is enough to offset yield expectations at this point but it at least provides some slight market support.