ISSUE 169, March 20, 2026

Peas vs. Wheat: A Profitability Snapshot for Spring Planting

Lars Birkeland, Seed Production Agronomist

Last week, we experienced nearly a foot of snow, but this week’s temperatures will soar into the 70s, only in Montana! With this week’s heat wave, planting season is almost here. For those who may still have undecided acres, current global events have certainly added some difficulty to that decision. Fertilizer pricing is painful.


To help illustrate one viable option, I’ve prepared a hypothetical comparison between green peas and spring wheat:

MT Green Peas vs Spring Wheat Comparison Chart

In this scenario, green peas outperform spring wheat by $63 per acre. That is significant—to the tune of $20,160 on a 320-acre field. If you're looking to enhance your profitability this spring, we have limited green pea seed and contracts still available. Please reach out to me, or to your local elevator/buyer.


Wishing you a successful planting season!

DURUM

Ryan Statz, Merchant

• In the last 10 days, durum markets have firmed to the upper end of the tight range we’ve seen throughout the last 8 months. 
• Overall, durum itself isn’t necessarily the driving force, but instead, a follower of the general firmness seen throughout commodity sectors due to the geopolitical events taking place in the Middle East.
• Iran itself is not an exporter of grains; they are an importer. Thus, supply isn’t being taken away from overall S&D’s and is not causing commodities to rally. So, what is pushing values higher?
• Energy / Oil / Logistics / Inputs – Fertilizers…are all being impacted 
• Uncertainty / Unknowns….do other countries get involved? How long has the crisis last? What other logistical bottlenecks unravel? 
• Other notes:
• Global S&Ds remain cumbersome. International weather remains a non-threat now.
• The markets still see big supplies, big crops domestically and internationally with no increase in demand.
• Markets are focused on 
• How North American and global ending stocks will shake out.
• How North African, Med, and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all analysis shows favorable conditions for world durum production zones with reports of very few issues thus far. 

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT

Ryan Statz, Merchant 

• HRW markets have seen an impressive cash rally in the last two weeks on the geopolitical events taking place in the Middle East. 
• A few notes:
• Iran itself is not an exporter of grains - they are an importer. Thus, supply isn’t being taken away from overall S&D’s and is not the root cause for the commodity rally. So, what is pushing values higher? 
• Energy / Oil / Logistics / Inputs – Fertilizers…are all being impacted
• Uncertainty / Unknowns….do other countries get involved? How long does the crisis last What other logistical bottlenecks unravel? 
• Other notes: 
• The bulls will talk about the current US drought conditions. No doubt, it is dry in a lot of our HRW footprint. Dryness is also getting worse in the southern plains (West KS, OK, TX). Yes, it is still mid-March, and we have time for things to improve, but it is very notable. 
• The bears will continue to talk about the record world wheat crop. This global record crop is exacerbated by the fact that our PNW world competitors make up most of the ‘said’ record. Competition is fierce to move wheat. If the US wants to keep stocks from ballooning, we need to be cheaper, or the rest of the world needs to move higher prices (right now this isn’t happening). Years ago, PNW used to only have a few competitors. Now, there is competition everywhere you look and are all desperate to move their ‘record’ stocks. 
• There have been rumors over the past week of the US importing Argy and European wheat into mills in the South…. This means that cash values in US are much higher than other production areas in the world.
• No doubt, we are rationing demand at these cash levels. 
• Like many other commodities, the market sees big supplies, big crops domestically and internationally with no increase in demand.
• With abundant and cheap crops internationally, US markets will be subject to the demand game and the pressure that ensues moving our crop. Will we see a summer push from the grower ahead of harvest or will we carry out stocks balloon as advertised? 

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT

Justin Beach,

Red Wheat Product Line Manager 

The spring wheat market is seeing increased volatility, and we expect that to continue for several reasons. The war with Iran continues, and crude oil swings are moving the entire complex daily, along with geopolitics. This has put major bids under ocean freight and caused basis destruction, along with the futures rally. Also, increased fuel charges will lead to higher freight rates, ultimately affecting producer bids at the pit negatively.

We are also seeing Canadian basis move lower, and spring wheat has been trading aggressively from the producer. Counter to that, we are seeing wide calendar spreads and a generally low cash basis, which is leading to cash carries, which has put a floor under the basis bleed.

We will quickly move to a weather market that will be monitoring planted acres. We already had record low planted acres and should be lower this year as well. With all, if yield isn’t great, we will need higher prices to ration demand and keep the flow of spring wheat. This market will be very sensitive to spring wheat yield.



We have very strong counteracting bullish and bearish pressures on this market, which I believe will create further volatility amidst the war.

SOFT WHITE WHEAT

Steve Yorke, Merchant

After our last newsletter, white wheat cash prices jumped up to $6.25/BU. Wheat futures had one of their biggest rallies in months as crude oil started its move higher due to the conflict in Iran. The past few days have shown us plenty of volatility, and that will remain if this situation continues to escalate.

On the fundamental side, we are seeing much of the same: limited wheat business and continued heavy world supplies. Russia raised its 2026–27 wheat crop by 1.7mmt to 87.6mmt. There have been and may continue to be some issues with the HRW crop due to dryness, but other than that, we are not seeing anything on the weather front to be overly concerned about at this time.

Export sales for the week were at the lower end of the range. SWW did show 2 cargos of new crop sales to the Philippines, but very little for old crop. Currently, we sit at 194MBU for the year, with little hope of hitting the USDA number of 210MBU by the end of May. Still a very healthy export figure, but not what the USDA was predicting in the last report.

Plenty of HTA, Accumulator pricing opportunities out there with all this volatility. Have your orders in and working to be rewarded.

https://columbiagrain.com/producer-solutions/

Joe Foley,

Product Line Manager – Corn & Soybeans 



CORN

Corn futures have been rallying amid the worsening Mideast hostilities and higher energy prices. Transportation costs are rising significantly all through the pipeline; railroad fuel surcharges will start kicking in during May, and a voyage-chartered vessel from the PNW to Asia is $1 million more expensive than prior to the Iran war. All participants, from the farmer to the end user overseas, should expect to bear their share of the higher fuel markets.

U.S. exports remain brisk, with total sales and shipments for this crop year nearly totaling 68mmt (2.677 bln bushels). Last year at this time, our commitments stood at only 52mmt. Safrinha (winter corn) plantings in Brazil are some 80–85pct complete now, just slightly above their normal sowing pace. The U.S. still appears the cheapest origin corn for most of the Asian buyers, but we do expect more competition from S. America by late summer.

The daily developments in the Persian Gulf are grabbing the headlines, but we do have a potentially market-moving acreage and stocks report coming at the end of March. We will get our first look at acreage intentions for the upcoming 2026 crop on this report, as well as estimates of March 1 stocks for both on- and off-farm entities. But the daily international developments remain the primary driver of near-term prices, along with this stocks and acreage report.

Farmers have been taking advantage of the volatility and higher prices to catch up on both old and new crop sales, which is probably a smart move.

SOYBEANS

Soybean prices have been riding the wave of sharply higher energy prices, although we did see a major (limit down) setback this week, following the delay of a Trump-Xi meeting. The market’s interpretation of the postponed summit is that any additional old crop soybean business is highly in question now, particularly with the tariff rulings of late and far cheaper (seasonally) Brazilian soybeans now flooding the world market.

Total U.S. commitments to China are less than 11mmt after some make-up business over the past couple months, but last year we had sold 21.6mmt to China by this time. Recall that China accounts for nearly all the PNW soybean demand, so their absence from our markets has profound implications for the Dakotas and Minnesota.

We are cautiously optimistic about some semblance of normalcy this fall (China buying U.S. soybeans), but that is far from certain given the chaos worldwide and Brazil harvesting a 180mmt record crop. Look for the March 31 stocks and acreage report, due out in a couple weeks, for near-term guidance on forward prices.

The market is anticipating a 3–3 1/2 mln acreage switch from corn to soybean acres, and higher fertilizer prices may well contribute to that, but conversely, we are hearing similar, if not higher, corn acres from our producers in N. Dakota.

BARLEY

Matthew Schorn, Merchant

Malt Demand and Price Trends

• New crop malt contracts are on the table, but the underlying message continues to be a weaker demand story on malt barley heading into the next crop year as consumer preferences shift away from beer and other alcohol.
• Initial new crop values are seeing a $0.50–1.00/bu spread to feed barley, historically on the lower end of a typical malt-feed spread.
• Old crop malt barley is pricing at or below feed barley, with a large Canadian crop and less malt demand continuing to weigh on the market.
• Will need to consider acreage for CY26/27 and how that will impact the market moving forward.

Canadian Domestic Feed Market

• Feed markets are seeing firmer values as feeder demand and Canadian export come to a head in combination with the ag complex firming on energy headlines.
• Domestic demand is narrowing the gap to export values, but the size of the crop and its proximity to local feed demand have kept the spread wider than it has been historically.
• Year-over-year cattle placements are lower, with some feed lots at 65–70% capacity. Overall feed demand in a year anticipated to have an abundant supply of feed grains.

Corn remains competitive in the feed ration in Southern Alberta, with Manitoba or North Dakota origins. This will limit any major upside potential on barley.

Flax

Sean Ferguson, Merchant

Flax prices have traded flat over the past few weeks. Demand remains minimal, although stocks have begun to accumulate in Thunder Bay export facilities; continued bulk-vessel export demand out of the Great Lakes will support prices. However, with plentiful stocks in the country, commercials can slowly accumulate inventory for their bulk trades without spooking the market.

As with all other ag commodity markets, we will soon be entering the weather market. Keep a close eye on the growing regions in Kazakhstan and Russia, as any significant crop issues in that region will likely bolster new-crop prices.

The canola market has continued to show significant strength over the past few weeks on the heels of the conflict in the Middle East. Energy markets remain on high alert as attacks on energy infrastructure unfold across several major energy-producing nations in the region. Trade flows are also being disrupted as the Strait of Hormuz continues to be used as a bargaining chip by Iran.

Continued strength in energy markets supports biofuels, which in turn supports vegetable oils. That said, there is substantial downside risk in canola prices if energy markets eventually revert to the “normal” levels seen prior to the war. Speculative money has continued to pile into the move; funds are reported to be net long roughly 95k contracts as of the most recent CFTC report.

Board crush margins remain elevated with the spike in vegetable oil prices, which in theory is supportive of canola basis. However, North American growers have rewarded the rally and sold heavily into this run-up in prices, putting significant pressure on basis values. With heavy carryout stocks projected in North America, as well as increased acreage year over year, it may be advantageous to consider selling new-crop cash.

The CAD/USD has remained volatile as both currencies react to recent geopolitical turmoil. The CAD has found support from higher energy prices, while the USD has been supported by safe haven flows as traders seek refuge amid ongoing uncertainty in global markets.

Beans

Samuel Stevens

New crop bids are now in place and beginning to gain traction at our North Dakota bean processing facilities. While planted acreage has come in below levels seen in prior years, this trend is understandable given the relatively stabilized soybean market and increased values in recent weeks.

We remain optimistic that, over time, growers will increasingly recognize the advantages of a consistent and dependable destination market. Currently, a significant portion of bean exports continues to flow to South America, while lentil and pea markets in Europe and Asia present greater uncertainty, particularly around execution.

In this environment, the value of stability and reliability in marketing channels becomes even more important.

Chickpeas

Samuel Stevens

North American chickpea demand has been impacted by the U.S./Iran conflict. Ocean carriers have raised costs, citing fuel surcharge increases and bunker fees. Shipments headed towards the Middle East are not only facing cost increases but also significant delays. It is still unclear how this dynamic will play out over time, as it is unclear how long the war will last.

Domestic chickpea demand will likely remain unchanged. Export demand for chickpeas feels unstable today.

Peas

Samuel Stevens

North American peas, specifically U.S. yellow peas, have struggled to compete in the export market all year. Large importing countries, such as India, China, and Pakistan, have been covering much of their demand from cheaper export lanes like Russia.

U.S. yellow pea prices are being propped up by domestic demand, but domestic demand is not strong enough to clear North American stocks. Without a big geopolitical change, North American yellow pea values will likely remain suppressed well into next crop year, as domestic supply still outweighs demand.

Lentils

Samuel Stevens

Lentils will likely see a drop in acres due to the previous year’s lentil crop issues and large carryovers from North America. The trend of high stocks in North America and issues with destination markets will unfortunately lead to continued price suppression, even with a smaller projected 2026 crop.

Matt Schorn


The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has continued to drive market volatility. Energy markets remain the focal point. Oil prices surged after the initial strikes and continue to trade with sharp swings. Even without a full supply interruption, markets are pricing in sustained geopolitical risk, keeping energy and freight costs elevated.

Grain and oilseed markets are following energy higher, though demand has turned more cautious. Buyers are delaying purchases and shortening contract lengths due to uncertainty around freight costs and delivery risks.

At the same time, fertilizer prices are rising alongside energy, as roughly 25–35% of globally traded fertilizer and nearly half of global urea exports are tied to flows through this region, adding longer-term supply concerns for agriculture. Implications extend beyond input costs. If fertilizer is applied at reduced rates, or changes decisions on what crops to plant, this raises the risk of lower planted acres for input-intensive crops and reduced yield potential.

The next important piece of information to watch will be the USDA March 31 Prospective Plantings report. The question becomes: will elevated fertilizer costs and uncertain availability influence acreage decisions, potentially shifting acres away from fertilizer-intensive crops or reducing total planted area?

The volatility we are seeing from the above discussions is where Columbia Producer Solutions tools, such as Good-Till-Canceled (GTC) and Ratchet orders, can provide value. GTC orders allow producers to automatically capture favorable price opportunities during sudden market spikes, while Ratchet orders help protect those gains by moving targets higher as the market advances and establishing a floor if prices begin to pull back.

Uncertainty is likely to remain a key market theme in the near term. The additional risk-management options listed below can help producers manage volatility, stay disciplined, and take advantage of opportunities when the market presents them.

Columbia Producer Solutions Tools:

• Basis Contracts
• Hedge to Arrive (HTA)
• Accumulator Contracts
• Ratchet Orders
• Collar Orders
• Cash +



Reach out to your local buyers and managers to review these options, or others, on our Columbia Producer Solutions platform of marketing tools.

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

Yuya Takano, Wiley Wang

International Merchants

The most important development for our market in the past two weeks has been the volatility of the ocean freight market, with the development of the conflicts with Iran. There are two key questions that need to be answered before we could connect any export businesses:

1. How much does the freight cost for this voyage? This would not be a complicated question to figure out before the conflict. At any given day in the past, you would be able to get several prices by different freight providers quoted firmly for you to work with, from point A to point B, with all types of vessels and mixtures of grain. This market has always been efficient. But now, most of the freight providers are having a hard time offering a firm rate due to the volatility in the vessel fuel market. The fuel could be traded at a much higher premium at different key destination ports, such as in Japan, South Korea, China, and Singapore. So, everyone is trying to offer a freight number with BAF attached, which means you will only lock in a base price, then it could be adjusted up or down depending on the actual fuel costs. For a 65,000mt vessel, you just open yourself up for large uncertainties. So, we could understand now most of the end users have to wait and delay coming to market, hoping to see some clarity in the freight market.
   
2. More importantly, freight operators are concerned that if the fuel supply situation gets worse, then some of the key destinations might begin to limit which vessels get fuel at which port, to protect supply to their national fleet. This has not happened yet, and we hope it won’t get there. But this would have severe implications for global trade flows.

So, all the high-priced freight and uncertainties are putting pressure on export volume and price. We need to closely monitor this market and manage the risks actively.