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ISSUE 150, July 11th, 2025

Two weeks ago, we shared some of the damages from the large storms that hit North Dakota on June 20th. Here are some other images of our facilities and the issues we are facing. CGI is working as quickly as possible to get these repaired.

DURUM

Ryan Statz, Merchant

Durum markets remain centered around the below.
Montana in very tough shape. North Dakota still hanging in there. Canadian Prairies are in tough position to the West but much better to the East.

Crop Conditions released July 7 are reflecting the dire situation. Good/Excellent conditions for Durum in MT are near all time lows at 2% compared to the 5-yr average of 45%.

If timely rain is received and average yields materialize, markets likely trend lower. If drought conditions persist, prices likely go higher.
Wait and see mode by buyers who still believe they have time, and by growers who want to see how things will shake out.
Good world crops (other than Mexico) with many world production areas in the middle of harvest.

Ryan Statz, Merchant

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT

Kansas City futures falling on the week on ‘easing’ geopolitical tensions and better overall US / world crop conditions and outlooks.
Locally, we aren’t seeing that in Montana with ‘dryness’ being shouted from the rooftops.
Montana HRW crop conditions retreated from 75% rated G/E in early June to 33% rated G/E last week to 29% rated G/E this week.

With the dryness, many are expecting protein to be there, but will other factors falter?

On July 11, the USDA/NASS issued its July update on HRW prospects by state:

A couple of head scratchers: yield prospects in Montana are seen as on par with values published in June while conditions have completely worsened. Overall, the USDA is forecasting a crop that is 92,840,000 bushels. Better than the previous year of 91,500,000 bu – due to higher acres.
Excellent overall May and June demand – but mostly through the Gulf, not the PNW.
Currently, PNW is only seeing routine demand. This alone is not enough to strengthen basis levels.
For now, local basis levels are steady – balancing lower production (bullish) with weaker demand (bearish).
Harvest will ramp up in most places throughout the CGI draw area next week. We want to wish you a safe and bountiful harvest! Please keep in touch with your local CGI representative in regards to programs and marketing options on how to ultimately add value to your operations and marketing plans.

Justin Beach, Merchant

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT

The focus of the market has been quiet demand, a very poor Montana crop, and an improving ND crop
MT HRS rated at 2% G/E
Export business is in to September with limited demand remaining and we are predominantly focused on upcoming harvest and late September forward business
MIAX-Kansas City spreads are rationing HRS demand
MWU a ~$1.05/bu premium to KWU
Market is waiting to see if trade deals surface following a few MoU’s (Memorandum of Understanding) which are non-binding agreements
We are monitoring whether the soybean program will build out or if the market will need to fill the pipeline through row crop harvest with more wheat
The PNW is still the market through Sep but Vancouver has the advantage October forward
HRW harvest pressure and soft row crop futures weighing down MIAX futures
Today’s WASDE showed 2025/26 U.S. wheat forecasts for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks
Crop production showed HRS production of 469MBU, well above most merchant estimates

Joe Foley, Merchant

Corn

**Corn futures are continuing their grind lower**

Mostly ideal growing conditions in the U.S., with crop rated 74pct good/exc
20pct of the crop is silking without adverse weather on the horizon

** Cash premiums remain very firm both in the U.S. and Brazil**

PNW exports since Sep1, are 15.5mmt, 5mmt above a year ago**
’24-25 exports are raised 100mln bushels to 2.750 bln on the July wasde

**Old and new crop carryouts slightly reduced**

‘24-25 ending stox lowered to 1.340 bln bushels
‘25-26 ending stox lowered to 1.660 bln bushels

**Despite lower carryouts, most observers are estimating a national

yield well above the current wasde projection of 181 bpa**

**Look for weather developments as crop continues into pollination phase and

whether U.S. exports can remain competitive vs. Brazil competition**

Joe Foley, Merchant

Soybeans

**Soy prices have been under pressure amidst non-threatening U.S. weather**

66pct of the U.S. crop is rated good/excellent, slightly below year ago rating

**Trade policy / tariffs, especially with regards to China continue to weigh on

market sentiment**

New crop export sales are 1.8mmt, vs. 1.6mmt a year ago
China has no open purchases from the U.S. in old or new crop
China commitments for current crop year are 22.4mmt (24.4mmt a year ago)
Brazil production of 170mmt will make any U.S. sales to China even more difficult

**The July wasde report slightly raised the ’25-26 carryout to 310mln bushels**

Domestic crush raised 50mln to 2.540 bln bushels
Exports lowered 70mln to 1.745bln bushels (1.865bln bushels current crop year)

** The U.S. soy crop has a long way to go with July/August weather instrumental in final yields**

Watch ensuing weather forecasts and any progress vs. China trade for forward price guidance

INTERNATIONAL

Yuichiro Kawata, Tomo Watanabe, Wiley Wang, International Merchants

Corn
Asian buyers have almost finished purchasing their demand for September shipment.
Demand from Japan and Taiwan has done.
Korea needs to buy 3 remaining vessels.
2 of 3 Korea's vessels are oriented toward purchasing from Brazil, leaving almost no chance for PNW to sell.
The remaining 1 vessel is worldwide demand, so PNW has a chance to sell if it has price competitiveness.
FOB offers are depleted due to lack of farmer selling, making it unclear at this point whether PNW has competitiveness.
In Brazil, FOB prices are rising as export terminals are currently handling mainly soybeans and farmer selling is quiet due to futures price declines.
US GULF is at almost the same level as Brazil.
PNW is currently at a disadvantage, but we will watch whether FOB offers will emerge.
From October shipment, we will monitor whether PNW will have competitiveness while considering the following two points:
Whether rail incentives will be extended
Whether old crop remains in PNW origination area
Soybean
No activities. Uncertainties on trade policies over hanging over new crop businesses.
Wheat
All demands are now into September shipment and some are further into Oct/Nov.
Black sea wheat gets cheaper with their efforts to increase exports; Australian wheat is still holding the price.
CWRS weather is mixed and as of now, they still have chance for an average yield, not trend line yield.
US spring wheat price at export continue to go low and it would remain if we do not get soybean export demand back.
Key factors we're watching:
Weather for the spring wheat production regions.
Trade negotiations related to soybean export to China.

BARLEY

Matthew Schorn, Merchant

As of July 11th, President Trump has cited 35% Tariffs on imported goods from Canada to the US to begin August 1st, 2026. Trade discussions will continue leading up to, and after, the date but no official changes have been made to tariffs on US barley exports to Canada. Barley is now being imported into Canada under processing remissions, which allow for tariff exemption.

Malt Demand and Price Trends

Malt demand remains quiet with limited buyer activity in both the old and new crop positions.
Crop conditions continue to be closely monitored, as any potential issues could lead to quality concerns and a lower rate of malt selection.
Both buyers and sellers seem to be waiting patiently to gauge quality before making any marketing decisions.
Price fluctuations have been minimal, however we are seeing weaker malt bids as we move closer to harvest. Weak demand continues to make price discovery challenging.

Canadian Domestic Feed Market

The Canadian feed market is weaker, largely due to an influx of Montana barley entering the market through tariff workarounds and a decline in corn futures. As a result, feeder bid have dropped considerably off the highs, and market sentiment is shifting.
Feed grain demand for July and August is hand-to-mouth as they try to bridge the gap between old and new crop with the market inverted CAD15-20/mt.
With drop in futures, new crop imported corn is competitive against Canadian feed barley in animal rations. However, buyers are currently holding off, awaiting clearer insights into Canadian production before committing to imported corn.

PULSES

Cameron Underwood, Merchant

LENTILS

Acres in Canada have reportedly exceeded intended acres
Drought remains a concern across Montana and Canada growing regions
Demand into India continues to weaken
Lentil markets have continued to weaken post- USDA June Stocks and acreage reports.
Export demand has been lackluster to-date for green lentils with many destination markets having higher inventory and slower than expected sales.
Many countries are awaiting government food-aid programs to come to fruition to continue moving inventories.
International substitutes for Green Lentils, such as Pigeon Peas, are cheaper today putting pressure on green lentil prices.

PEAS

New crop has started to come off the farm in parts of Montana
Concerns about yield loom in areas affected by drought
Cheap Russian and Canadian Yellow Peas working to bear down market

CHICKPEAS

Potential concern for chickpeas growing conditions in Pacific Northwest
International Chickpea markets are fluid today with small-volumes trading. Pricing is generally in a downtrend with Canadian and alternate exporters leading the market lower.

DRY BEANS

Markets continue to work lower as focus shifts to new crop
Crop damage across North Dakota continues to be assessed following high winds and a natural disaster
Roughly 4-5 weeks from having clarity on Mexican crop conditions
Planting is virtually complete in Canada and about 90% complete in the U.S.
Dominican Republic market remains relatively quiet stemming from issues with Haiti

Columbia Producer Solutions

Phil Symons

July USDA S&D out shows corn yield could get a record yield in the US.
Growing conditions in the US are next to ideal for corn and soybeans putting downward pressure on the markets – use of GTC orders to take advantage of the knee jerk reactions if/when we see the futures markets snap back.
Expected Spring wheat production down 7% from last year.
Yes, we are down potentially 7% from last year but the July number is 30 million bushels of production above where the average trade had the estimates coming in at.
Harvest Pressure continues to hit the wheat complex
Futures markets continue to see harvest pressure driving futures prices lower.
Geopolitical influences gave us some pricing opportunities for a brief period.
Large Speculators in the Commodity complex continue to win on their short futures positions.
The commitment of trader’s report continues to show the large speculators are being rewarded for holding a short futures position.
Volatility continues to be the name of the game with daily price movements.
Predicting the futures markets can be a very difficult, if not impossible task. Get those orders working to remove the emotional roller coaster on pulling the trigger for your grain sales.
Use Stop loss orders to protect the floor – ratchet or collar orders are a great way to protect the floor price.
Select a price below to market to make sure you have some form of safety net to protect your floor price.

Sean Ferguson, Merchant

CANOLA

Global trade disputes are likely to add volatility to the markets as trade flows are at risk of adjustment.
The US threatens 50% tariffs on Brazil, which will likely lead traders to decrease Brazilian exposure as Brazilian economic uncertainty mounts.
The US threatens a 35% tariff on Canada.
Although USMCA goods are likely to continue to be protected from tariffs, this includes oilseed markets.
Funds hold approximately a 136k net canola futures position, equating to roughly 58% of the overall open interest in ICE canola futures.
StatsCan released the planted acres report on 6/27, pegging the planted canola crop at a total of 21.5 million acres. This value aligns with most trade estimates and the 5-year average of 21.8 million acres.
Cash crush margins continue to widen as oil values outpace seed values.

US Crop Conditions:

ND: 72% Good/Excellent, 20% Fair, 8% Poor/Very Poor
MT: 63% Good/Excellent, 26% Fair, 11% Poor/Very Poor
WA: 58% Good/Excellent, 28% Fair, 14% Poor/Very Poor

Canadian Crop Conditions:

AB: 62% Good/Excellent, 27% Fair, 11% Poor/Very Poor
SK: 71% Good/Excellent, 22% Fair, 7% Poor/Very Poor
MB: 75% Good/Excellent, 19% Fair, 6% Poor/Very Poor

Sean Ferguson, Merchant

FLAX

Black Sea flax growing regions continue to look excellent, especially when compared to the North American crop.
Values continue to converge toward new crop pricing as old crop demand wanes, with traders beginning to wait for the new crop.
North American flax crop looks better compared to most other crops but there is still time for draught or rain to influence crop conditions.

US Crop Conditions:

ND: 67% Good/Excellent, 24% Fair, 9% Poor/Very Poor

Canadian Crop Conditions:

AB: 60% Good/Excellent, 30% Fair, 10% Poor/Very Poor
SK: 70% Good/Excellent, 23% Fair, 7% Poor/Very Poor
MB: 72% Good/Excellent, 22% Fair, 6% Poor/Very Poor