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ISSUE 157, SEPT. 19, 2025

DURUM

Ryan Statz, Merchant

Harvest is at the finish line in both Montana and North Dakota with Saskatchewan nearing the 75% completed mark.
Significant rainfall over the last 7 days in both North Dakota and north of the border into Eastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba.
This will lead to additional quality issues in the last 25% of the Saskatchewan/Alberta crop.
In general, the crop was bigger than anticipated in terms of yields but also felt varying degrees of quality implications due to early drought (May/June) followed by heavy rainfall in the July 10 - Aug 5 window.
Markets have taken a significant hit to the downside the last few weeks due to a few reasons;
Old crop supply was carried into new crop markets as a hedge against droughty May/June conditions.
Demand has taken a major step back as domestic buyers also carried in heavy stocks from pre-tariff Canadian flows to hedge against droughty new crop concerns that were present in April-June.
Much bigger supply than originally anticipated.
The quality spread has the few buyers that are poking around still on the sidelines waiting for their spot to pick and choose.
Simply put, harvest production around the world was better than expected and with old crop carry-ins being burdensome, there really isn’t a need for new crop stocks domestically or internationally – at the moment.
The market will reflect this situation with widened carry structures into the Dec-Jan windows when the market can find demand again.
Overall, it’s been very quiet the last few weeks…very much resembling a ‘cannot buy it’ and ‘cannot sell it’ type attitude.
In general, prices need to incentivize demand, and it will be the markets job to find it…this likely means thru lower prices. Did we do enough to entice it?

SOFT WHITE WHEAT

Steve Yorke, Merchant

The white wheat market continues to stay on the lower end of the range (5.75-6.25). We are seeing steady routine business for Oct/Nov but nothing extra to push prices higher. Currently exports sit at 91MBU for the marketing year which is about 8-10% behind last year's robust pace. We continue to hope that we capture some swing business before Australia starts to cut their big crop which will compete directly with our white wheat. Harvest for them starts in mid-October so that window is shutting quickly. Last estimates had their crop at over 33MT which would be the 4^th largest on record. We have seen a little run in the futures the past week after hitting contract lows for the year. Cash + contract activity has been steady this week and should be looked at if you are familiar and comfortable with how they work. Please call in to discuss further.

https://columbiagrain.com/producer-solutions/

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT

Justin Beach,

Red Wheat Product Line Manager

US harvest is all but wrapped up and now we will look to Canada. Early reports are strong yields and lower protein than anticipated which has rallied basis a bit but put wider spreads into their 13.5 vs 13.8 pro offers which should help support PNW 14.0. In the Dakotas and domestic market, we are seeing wide carries to November forward positions. Millers remain concerned about capacity utilization shifting to soybeans with minimal homes and a large corn program. We believe replacement will be tough to come by for new cash, but the market got ran over and the producer continues to sell harvest overrun bushels- it came hot and heavy. Miller coverage for Oct-Dec is solid, and more shift is focusing to JFM. In the PNW we are seeing the bulk of the demand for Late Oct-Nov and some in the Dec position so we believe that the PNW could see life on the heels of a very slow spring wheat harvest in MT in which we saw heavy HRW receipts but muted spring wheat. In all destination markets cash price will need to do some work to extract new grain however we have Canadian wheat harvest which will mute rally attempts with grower hedge pressure. Also, the weakness in the dollar may incent more PNW spring wheat demand in conjunction with SE Asia trade agreements.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT

Ryan Statz, Merchant

With HRW harvest wrapped up in the US. Activity in the near term will center around solving logistics.
Essentially picking up the pieces from a big harvest that left quality implications in places and figuring out ways to execute tail end of programs.
It is seeding season for HRW in Montana and while conditions are great with the abundant rain received the last 60 days, the market knows that incremental bushels flowing into the system in this window could be challenged.
With market supply nearly set, market will turn to demand and how to navigate the off-quality within.
Low flat prices exist. There are still wide KC/MPLS board carries. HRW prices remain cheap relative to other classes and other geographic regions (not the cheapest, but certainly close).
Excellent overall May - Aug demand – but mostly through the Gulf, not nearly consistent enough in the PNW. However, US flat prices are still enticing world-wide - this will lead to continued demand. Note that incremental business is starting to show up in PNW September export lineups…stay tuned for Oct forward demand.
US trade deals is also a feature the market is watching. Bangladesh in particular is one market where deals are being finalized. These details are still coming out.
Keep in touch with your local CGI representative in regard to programs and marketing options on how to ultimately add value to your operations and marketing plans.

Phil Symons

Volatility continues to be the name of the game as we saw the wheat complex trade to some fresh life of contract lows recently. On the flip side of that we continue to see strength in the corn futures as export volume has picked up in that arena offsetting some of the lack of soybean demand we are seeing on the export demand front. Export sales released this morning once again highlighted China’s absence from the US soybean market providing additional reason to secure corn export volume while it is there to help offset the lack of export volume there. There are still a lot of ‘what if’ scenarios to play out if we do see a trade deal materialize but the clock is ticking, and grain handlers are making plans for harvest receipts. If we do see a trade deal materialize, we should expect to see the market react in kind to a deal adding additional volatility to the futures market.

Given the strength we have seen in the corn market recently and with harvest around the corner we should be looking at protecting the floor price, using a stop loss order or a ‘ratchet order’ to help secure the floor price would be a good tool to use in the current environment. Reach out to your local buyers and managers to review this option in our Columbia Producer Solutions platform of marketing tools.

VISIT THE PRODUCER SOLUTIONS WEBSITE

Barley

Matthew Schorn, Merchant

Malt Demand and Price Trends

Malt demand remains very weak, as maltsters continue to work through old crop inventories and are evaluating new crop samples.
Harvest is complete, with quality reports showing mixed results after July rains. Protein levels are variable, some sprouting has been observed, and test weights range from low to high.
Despite these quality issues, pricing has seen little movement, largely due to the continued lack of demand.
Significant old crop carryover into 2026 is expected to limit near-term cash opportunities for new crop sales.
Increased Canadian malt barley production could pressure malt values.

Canadian Domestic Feed Market

The Canadian feed market has stabilized as harvest nears completion and harvest pressure begins to ease. The focus is now shifting to actual yields. While Statistics Canada has raised its projected yields, trade estimates remain even higher—potentially adding long-term pressure to feed values.
Feed grain demand for September and October is expected to be well covered, as growers sell spot grain during harvest.
Have not seen and significant demand beyond November from the feeders making price discovery difficult.
Cattle placements remain slow, making it difficult to accurately gauge feed grain demand. Year-over-year placements are expected to be lower, which may reduce overall feed demand in a year anticipated to have an abundance of feed grains.
U.S. corn is currently not price-competitive compared to Canadian feed barley or feed wheat.

Sean Ferguson, Merchant

FLAX

StatsCan ending stocks are pegged at 134.1k metric tons (5,279,278 bu).
Tight by historical standards, though not as tight as the trade expected.
Better than expected ending stocks, combined with record acreage/production in Russia and Kazakhstan, should keep a lid on prices.
StatsCan increased the Canadian flax production estimate to 365.4k metric tons (14,385,146 bu).
A larger than expected Canadian carryout, alongside a solid crop, will add much needed stocks to the North American balance sheet.
Record flax crops from Russia and Kazakhstan will likely keep Chinese and EU buyers from sourcing in Canada, which should keep U.S./Canadian prices in check.

CANOLA

Perks of growing winter non-GMO canola:

Higher yields than spring canola varieties.
Strong rotational benefits.
Breaks pest, disease, and weed cycles when rotated with cereals or pulses.
Helps manage grassy weeds.
Non-GMO price premium.
Lower input costs versus GMO canola.

Market info:

The market awaits biofuel mandates being set in stone and implemented.
In the meantime, manufacturers are expected to sell as much as possible into edible oil markets, which will continue to pressure margins and prices.
Any uncertainty in the vegetable oil market will weigh on canola prices.
Crush margins continue to tighten alongside weaker oil values.
As margins tighten, expect basis to trend lower.
The ICE/MATIF spread continues to widen as Canadian canola finds alternate export destinations.
Prices will face solid downside risk as long as Chinese tariffs remain on Canadian canola. Talks have begun with Chinese officials, so there is a chance China reopens as an export destination for Canadian canola.
CAD/USD has strengthened over the past few days on USD weakness.
The U.S. Fed’s forecast for an additional 50 bps of rate cuts has put downward pressure on the dollar.
Canadian Prime Minister Carney pledged C$370 million in support of Canadian producers and the biofuel sector to help dull the impact of Chinese tariffs.
This subsidy could backfire for the biofuel industry if it raises the cost of purchasing canola from growers who receive the subsidy.

Joe Foley, Merchant

CORN

Corn futures continue their grind higher from the August lows, rallying some 30cnts. Exports remain the primary bright spot, with open sales and shipments this new crop year (9/1/25 start) nearly 24mmt, well surpassing last year’s pace by 9.6mmt. Mexico and Columbia have been big buyers, and the Asian countries have been aggressive buying PNW corn. Export capacity on the PNW has been freed up, lacking any Chinese soybean interest, which has contributed to PNW competitiveness.

We expect this brisk pace to continue at least through December. The September wasde report surprisingly pegged U.S. production higher than their August estimate (increased acreage offsetting slightly lower yields), but surprisingly, prices rallied, likely on technical indicators. We don’t see the bullish fundamentals of a carryout projected @ 2.111bln bushels, but there are concerns that subsequent reports will continue to show lower yields. Nonetheless, many of our ND producers have been locking in these higher prices, with their state production now projected @ 632mln bushels vs. 542mln last year. Watch for continuing export pace and subsequent U.S. production reports for forward price guidance.

SOYBEANS

November futures have been rangebound from 10.25 to 10.50, amid continuing uncertainty surrounding China’s absence from the U.S. export grid. There are currently no outstanding sales to China this crop year, in sharp contrast to nearly 6mmt a year ago. This is largely the difference in total U.S. commitments vs. a year ago.

Mexico and Pakistan are notable exceptions, with a combined 1.3mmt more on the books vs. last year. But the effects of China’s total withdrawal have severe ramifications for the PNW exporter and accordingly the ND farmer, the latter looking at extremely weak cash basis bids of -145 to -160sx, and all market participants are skittish about the logistics of a sharply reduced export program coinciding with soybean harvest, followed by a very large corn export program. Brazil has been supplying China’s import needs with their 171mmt crop, at the expense of the U.S. farmer, and early projections for next year’s crop (harvested late January through March ’26) are 175-178mmt. Current estimates for U.S. production are 117mmt. Prices going forward will be a function of future wasde U.S. production estimates and of course whether any progress with China trade impasses are realized.

INTERNATIONAL

Yuichiro Kawata

Tomo Watanabe

Wiley Wang

International Merchants

Corn

Most Asian buyers are covered for November; there might still be a little bit left from opportunistic buyers in Vietnam. Some of the major Vietnamese trading firms extended their coverage to Jan with a mixture of Brazilian origin vs PNW.
PNW would still be the main supplier for Dec; but going into Jan, we will see how aggressive Brazilian is going to be.

Soybeans

Taiwan bought one more PNW soy this week. So far total 5 cargoes this season. They traditionally focus more on Brazilian and Gulf origin for the higher protein and oil content. So PNW sales to Taiwan would take a break from here.
PNW needs to find more alternative markets since there continue to be no news for trade negotiations with China.
Rumor says China bought Western and Eastern Canadian soybeans this week, but nothing confirmed.

Wheat

Most buyers are covered for Nov and are looking for Dec positions.
PNW continue trying to connect feed wheat and low to mid protein demand, with competition from Europe and Australia. It has been a hit and miss, mostly depends on ocean freight spreads and customer blends.
For spring wheat, we see CWRS 13.8 are coming off the peak from two weeks ago. But consistent rains in parts of the central prairies, still remains risks to the quality.