ISSUE 15, OCTOBER 3, 2025

SEED/AGRONOMY

Blaise Boyle, Director of Seed and Agronomy

Using Certified Seed is the start to a successful Season!

Certified seed plays a crucial role in modern farming by ensuring quality, reliability, and higher crop performance. Unlike saved or uncertified seed, certified seed goes through strict quality control processes that test for purity, germination rate, and freedom from disease or weed seeds. This means farmers can trust that what they plant will grow uniformly and vigorously, leading to more predictable and productive harvests. Starting with high-quality seed is the foundation of a successful crop, and certified seed provides that assurance.

Another important benefit of certified seed is its role in disease and pest resistance. Certified seeds are often developed through advanced breeding techniques to include traits that resist common threats like rusts, blights, and insects. This helps to reduce the need for chemical applications, lowering input costs and environmental impact. Using certified seed also helps prevent the spread of seed-borne diseases, which can devastate entire fields if introduced through poorly selected planting material.

Lastly, certified seed supports innovation and sustainability in agriculture. Many certified varieties are the result of years of research aimed at improving yields, stress tolerance (such as drought or salinity resistance), and nutrient efficiency. By choosing certified seed, farmers not only access the latest agricultural technology but also contribute to a system that rewards plant breeders and researchers, encouraging ongoing improvements in crop performance. In this way, certified seed helps drive both short-term farm success and long-term food security.

SOFT WHITE WHEAT

Steve Yorke, Merchant

Another couple weeks of softer markets overall for wheat. We hit a 5-year low in Chicago wheat which pushed cash white wheat down to 5.80/BU as of this writing. Business remains brisk for white wheat, but it is also being coupled with steady grower selling so prices are being pressured. We should continue to see some swing business at these levels, but we are also getting closer to Australia’s harvest which is being pegged at 34.5MMT, another huge crop for them. We are hearing of no crop concerns at this time and harvest should kick off as normal around the middle of October. On a more positive note, we have seen some improvement in basis levels and anyone that still has HTA’s or Accumulators for December should have orders in and working to capture rallies. There will be no export sales reports this week due to the Government shutdown. We did have some Japan and Taiwan tender business this week along with another feed cargo for SWW. At this time exports are about 6-7% behind last year’s pace. We will update figures as soon as reports are back to being published.

columbiagrain.com/producer-solutions/

Joe Foley, Merchant

CORN

Corn futures have been retracing recent gains following harvest pressure 

in the U.S. and a Sep1 stocks report that confirmed a larger carryout. 

Harvest in the U.S. is largely on an average pace with some 20pct of the 

crop now in the bin. Yield reports are in line with most expectations, and even with 

some additional yield reductions, most observers are calling for production 

of 16.7-16.8 billion bushels (bbs), easily surpassing the previous U.S. record crop size. 

Similarly, the sep1 stocks (final ’24-25 carryout) of 1.532bbs exceeded most 

expectations and despite optimistic feed and exports, the ’25-26 U.S.

carryout will almost certainly exceed 2.000bbs and possibly approach 2.3-2.400bbs. 

This latter data point will serve as a significant headwind to higher prices. Exports 

of course remain a bright spot with commitments some 11mmt ahead of 

last year’s pace, but record exports are already baked into the carryout projections. 

We expect farmers will be sellers on rallies, particularly so with the soybean 

market chaos. 

SOYBEANS

Soybean prices have been trending lower, down 30cnts / bushel over the last two weeks, as harvest picks up steam amid no end in sight to the destruction of PNW exports to China. Soybean harvest is in line with corn harvest completion near 20pct, but farmers are trying to come to grips with sharply lower basis levels in the northern plains, reflecting China’s complete cessation of U.S. purchases. The September stocks report pegged last crop year’s carryout (9/1/25) @ 316mln bushels,  mostly in line with market expectations. The new crop soy balance sheet is not overly bearish at a similar 300mln bushel ending stocks, but there may be significant downside to current export expectations if no truce in trade spats materializes.

The ebb and flow of no progress, then optimistic texts/tweets will likely be material market movers going forward. Export commitments currently stand 6.5-7mmt behind a year ago’s pace. Elsewhere, Brazil is just getting underway with planting of their next year’s crop (Feb-April 2026 harvest), and most observers see an even larger crop than this past year on acreage expansion, which of course directly reduces export demand for U.S. soybeans. Any future rallies in prices will require actual progress in trade discussions or adverse weather in S. America, neither of which is currently on the horizon. 

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT

Justin Beach,

Red Wheat Product Line Manager 

Lower has been the path of least resistance the past few weeks. To us, if feels like spring wheat has been drug down by HRW in which stocks continue to feel larger amid strong export sales pace and abundant global supplies. There’s still producer hedge pressure with US harvest wrapped up as the Canadians continue their harvest campaign. The month of September was all offers as the ND farmer brought strong receipts to commercial grain elevators with a bigger than expected crop and unknowns about soybean bin space allocations with such a weak cash price. Domestic millers have been relatively coy about Nov-Dec coverage and are more focused on JFM while the exporter is focused on Nov-Dec. Millers are making a point of reminding us they will be grinding more HRW this year given the cash price spread. We still see open demand and offers are moving higher. We see some importers booking quickly and some trying to be patient. Producer offers this month should remain very thin and the market in the north will focus on row crop harvest. Moving forward the market will need to come to the producer for meaningful replacement and we aren’t close to that but at the moment front end stocks have remained burdensome and interior assets are showing carries to the producer- especially in ND.

DURUM

Ryan Statz, Merchant

With durum harvest wrapped up, it was a very quiet finish to the month of September. Prices are depleted waiting on demand. Did we do enough to entice it? That remains the million-dollar question. While we wait, enjoy the Durum Word Search below!

Phil Symons

The US government officially shut down as of October 1, 2025. In the Ag industry we heavily rely on the USDA for a variety of reports that provide us with fundamental data that drives the direction of the markets on a daily basis. The last report we had from the USDA was the quarterly stocks report and small grains summary. Of the reports we receive a few of the more regular reports consist of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate reports, commonly referred to as the WASDE report which is released monthly. Another report that all of us in the Ag Industry rely on in the weekly export sales report, which breaks down all the export sales activity by commodity along with the county purchasing US grains and oilseeds.

As a matter more on history than anything else, the reason why the USDA issues an export sales report on a weekly basis stems from the “Great Russian Grain Robbery” in 1972. I thought this would be a good time to look at the history on the Export Sales report in general since we will not be receiving one this week, at a minimum. 

Source: FAS.USDA fas.usda.gov/

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT

Ryan Statz, Merchant

• Marketing has been put on the back burner as we are now into seeding season throughout HRW country. 

• With market supply nearly set, market will turn to demand and how to navigate the off-quality within.
• Low flat prices exist, there are wide KC/MPLS board carries and HRW prices remain cheap relative to other classes and other geographic regions (not the cheapest, but certainly close). 
• While all this is true and would lead market participants to lean bullish, the market needs to be realistic with the fact that there are surplus stocks in the US and World. This has been known, but the USDA continues to publish higher and higher ‘25/26 US production, ‘25/26 World production, and additional US on-off farm stocks with each updated report. Point is, supply is growing, and sellers are aggressive.
• The market saw excellent overall May - Aug demand – but mostly through the Gulf, not nearly consistent enough in the PNW. However, US flat prices are still enticing world-wide - this will lead to continued demand. Note that incremental business is starting to show up in PNW Sept/Oct export lineups…stay tuned for Oct forward demand.
• US trade deals is also a feature the market is watching. Bangladesh in particular is one market where deals are being finalized. These details are still coming out.
• Keep in touch with your local CGI representative in regard to programs and marketing options on how to ultimately add value to your operations and marketing plans.

Sean Ferguson, Merchant

FLAX

• Production in MT/ND and the Canadian Prairies is exceeding expectations. 
• Both planted acreage and yields are coming in higher than initially reported. 
• The spread between flax and alternative ag commodities remains wide, incentivizing grower selling and adding further weakness to the market. 
• European and Asian demand will be filled from the Black Sea, which is nearing the end of its flax harvest. 
• Reports continue to indicate a mammoth, potentially record-breaking Black Sea crop. 

CANOLA

• Harvest pressure has capped canola prices in North America. 
• As with flax, the North American canola crop is proving better than initially expected. 
• China’s tariff on Canadian canola will continue to suppress prices for as long as it remains in place. 
• The ICE/Matif spread has hovered around -$110/MT, indicating Canadian canola is priced to work into Europe, net of premiums. 
• Weak RIN and energy prices have weighed on vegetable oil markets; biofuel blending margins are minimal, so blenders are not incentivized to blend vegetable oils into biofuel. 
• Crush margins continue to trade sideways. 
• With uncertainty in the oil and canola markets, risk appetite remains limited for canola crush traders. 

INTERNATIONAL

Yuichiro Kawata

Tomo Watanabe

Wiley Wang

International Merchants

Corn 

• There are still demands to be fill for late Nov or early Dec shipments, but Brazilian corn is becoming more competitive. On paper they are almost on par on arrival Vietnam basis.
• JFM would have more competition from South Americas.

Soybeans 

• Continue to be a big void in PNW export pipelines.
• Last week Argentina’s 3 days export tariff suspension, buyers booked up to 7 bln of oil seeds and some grain within 3 days. Quite impressive. 
• This pushes back any potential Chinese purchase of PNW soy to a much later date, since the quality similarities of Argentina soy.

Wheat 

• Market is waiting for a large Australian crop. 
• There are some small gaps for feed wheat or low to mid protein wheat before the buyers receive Australian new crops.
• Canada CWRS continue to be weaker thus remain heavy competition to PNW NS.