ISSUE 154, AUGUST 8, 2025

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT

Justin Beach,

Red Wheat Product Line Manager 

• New contract lows have been the theme of the last 2 weeks.
• This morning the wheat market has caught a bid on fund short covering driven by strong export sales, particularly HRW.
• We will start seeing meaningful harvest receipts next week if the rain can hold off. 
• Many are concerned about a myriad of quality factors given. 
• Front end basis is very heavy to all gateways. 
• Old crop carry-in and space limitations driving more front-end trade at cheaper values 
• CWRS remain below PNW HRS values Oct forward and we are seeing convergence between the 2. 
• Globally, US Wheat values are competitive however the market is very concerned about limited liquidity following harvest. 
• We will continue to monitor demand for proof of line from Trade Deals but so far, the big demand beneficiary has been the TX Gulf. 
• Across the Northern Tier space is going to be an issue through spring wheat harvest coupled with wide calendar spread carries.

CORN

Joe Foley, Merchant

Corn prices are some 20cnts/bushel lower over the last two weeks

• continuing benign weather in the U.S. is significantly raising production estimates
• 73pct of the U.S. crop is rated good/excellent

Production prospects are growing significantly

• private estimates are forecasting a yield of 183-188 bushels per acre (bpa)
• the most recent USDA wasde estimate was 181 bpa
• the USDA is widely expected to raise their estimate on the Aug12 wasde
• a record U.S. crop is almost certain to be well over 400mmt

Brazil production is estimated at 135-140mmt

• the winter corn harvest is 75pct complete, slightly behind average
• farmers have been very stubborn sellers thus far
• march thru July ’25 corn shipments stand at 3.9mmt vs. 5.3mmt last year

U.S exports remain very strong

• crop year to date commitments are 70.6mmt vs. 55.7mmt a year ago
• PNW shipments stand at 17mmt 
• new crop (Sep ’25-Aug ’26) sales of 11.8mmt are sharply above a year ago’s 5.8mmt

PNW prices are fully competitive to Asia through at least December ‘25

Outlook

• huge U.S. production prospects and strong exports are the main drivers going forward
• the U.S. carryout is growing, despite the upward adjustment to exports
• watch for developments on both fronts for forward price guidance

SOYBEAN

Soybean futures are down 35cnts/bushel since our last writing

• mostly favorable crop conditions and trade war anxiety are weighing on prices
• the U.S. crop is currently rated 69pct good/excellent
• critical August weather will be instrumental in final yield prospects

Brazil continues a massive export program

• shipments from Feb through July are 76.2mmt, nearly 4mmt above a year ago
• Brazil grew 170mmt this past year with 1-2pct acreage expansion projected next year
• sowing will commence in late Sep/Oct

China remains absent from U.S. soy markets

• there are no China sales on the books for U.S. soybeans
• they represent 44pct of all U.S. commitments this crop year, taking 22.48mmt
• there are currently no sales to China for new crop, compared to .562mmt last year and 3.75mmt two years ago
• U.S. exports have significant downside exposure, should China remain absent from our markets

August weather forecasts and U.S.-China trade developments remain the driving market movers

SOFT WHITE WHEAT

Steve Yorke, Merchant

• Current market conditions 
• Price range: Cash prices are stable, trading in a narrow band between $6.00-6.30/BU.  
• Demand: The market remains active with ongoing Sept/Oct business.  However, demand is not at last year’s robust levels. 
• Grower selling: Increased grower selling is putting pressure on cash bids, keeping them at the lower end of the range. 
• Export activity: A feed wheat cargo was recently sold to Korea, likely soft white wheat.  More such sales would be positive, as current export pace is about 25% behind last year.

• Harvest Quality 
• Test Weight: Slightly above average in our region.
• Protein: Initially 1.0%-1.5% higher, now averaging about .05% higher than 5-year avg.
• Falling numbers: No concerns reported so far, indicating good crop quality.

• Marketing thoughts 
• Nothing very exciting to report on the markets as demand remains steady but nothing like we saw last year at this time.   Rallies will need to be sold.
• One bright note is the Korean feed cargo mentioned above that traded this week.  The big question is will we see more?  At current levels we should see more business for Oct/Nov. 
• I would continue to have orders in and working to capture rallies.  Cash, futures or basis orders.  Contact us to discuss available marketing tools.  

• Australia update 
• Rainfall over the past 20 days, especially in Southern Australia, has been beneficial for crops but has caused logistical challenges.

DURUM

Ryan Statz, Merchant

• Significant rainfall has hit durum country in both the US and Canada the last 2 weeks (map below).  
• In many places, this equated to half of the year’s total rainfall accumulation in just 2 weeks.  

• The aid provided by the rainfall has pressured markets in a substantial way. 
• Yes, later seeded crops will see yield upticks. Not so much in the early seeded portion…but in either case, durum production is up. 
• Now, with harvest on the doorstep, quality will be focus number one.  

• Note the below precipitation outlook for the next 10 days. 
• In a nutshell, there is a complete mixed bag of emotions, but it undoubtedly is giving buyers a reason to sit and wait until things shake out.  
• By next CGI Market News Report, harvest will be in full swing for most and the market will begin to drill down on these two components.  
• Have a happy and safe harvest!  

HARD RED

WINTER WHEAT

Ryan Statz, Merchant

• Montana harvest is in full swing. Montana is likely 50-75% harvested. 
• Albeit, in start-and-stop fashion due to significant rainfall that has hit most of Montana the last 2 weeks.  
• Most areas have received half of their to-date yearly rainfall in this period. 
• This rainfall is leading to quality concerns in most areas. 
• The rainfall seen throughout July has been two-fold. Yes, it aided crop size but quality is now a major focal point. 
• While May/June was extremely dry and fears persisted about the crop size, yields have surprisingly been higher than initially expected. Likely aided by the mild temperatures that trumped the dry condition fears. 
• Proteins have also been a touch lower than many expected. 
• Excellent overall May, June, July demand – but mostly through the Gulf, not the PNW. However, US flat prices for HRW for approaching lows world-wide…this will lead to continued demand.  
• Currently, PNW is mostly seeing routine demand.  
• US trade deals is also a feature the market is watching…Bangladesh in particular is one market where deals are being finalized. The details are still coming out.  
• We want to wish you a safe and bountiful harvest! Please keep in touch with your local CGI representative in regard to programs and marketing options on how to ultimately add value to your operations and marketing plans.  

Sean Ferguson, Merchant

FLAX

• Black Sea crop conditions are reported to be favorable. 
• A good Black Sea crop will likely cap global prices. 
• The Canadian Prairies continue to receive rain, which has incentivized grower sales of old crop stocks. 
• Prices have converged close to new crop values. 
• Spot old crop demand remains sparse, with most buyers waiting for new crop timeframes. 

CANOLA

Perks of Growing Winter Non-GMO Canola: 

• Higher yields compared to spring canola varieties. 
• Great rotational benefits. 
• Breaks pest, disease, and weed cycles when rotated with cereals or pulses. 
• Helps manage grassy weeds. 
• Non-GMO price premium. 
• Lower input costs compared to GMO canola. 

Canola Market Info: 

• Good rains on the Canadian Prairies continue to benefit the Canadian canola crop. 
• Tight stocks going into the new crop have helped bolster prices. 
• Crush margins are trading sideways. 
• Higher crush rates will put pressure on vegetable oil prices, although EPA enforcement of subsidy limitations on imports should help domestic values. 
• Global ending stocks for canola are anticipated to be tighter than those of alternate oilseeds, such as soybeans. 
• The Black Sea rapeseed crop has faced lackluster growing conditions. 
• A significant decline in yields is anticipated in Russia and Ukraine. 
• Managed money continues to hold decent ICE canola length as global rapeseed/canola stocks remain tight going into the new crop. 
• PNW canola harvest has been sporadic due to intermittent rain events. 

Phil Symons 

Harvest pressure is pushing wheat futures down to test levels that we haven’t tested in a meaningful way for about 5 years. With the drop in the futures prices, we are starting to see end users and buyers across the pond looking to get their needs bought. Export sales over the last few weeks have been rather strong on both corn and wheat(s), soybeans have been fishing behind the net with China not coming to the US for their needs with eh trade issues at hand. With that exporters are selling corn and wheat(s). 

• Corn export sales trajectory has magnified significantly as soybeans sales pace has fallen off the pace needed with China not coming to the US as of yet. 
• All wheat sales trajectory is ahead of the pace needed to meet the current USDA export sales forecast. 
• Trajectory on US HRW sales is very strong 
• Trajectory on US HRS sales is behind the pace needed. 
• Trajectory on SWW sales is in line. 
• Trajectory on Durum sales is in line as well. 
• Quality on some wheat(s) will be a concern this year with harvest rains. 

• Testing 5-year lows will continue to get attention from the buyers and should lead to some kind of knee jerk reaction to the futures markets to move higher, the question is ‘higher from what price’.  
• Get your orders to sell working – Minimum Price Contracts look like a good option to me at the moment. Sell some cash and buy calls to keep you in the market in case we do see the futures rally off the most recent lows. 

INTERNATIONAL

Yuichiro Kawata

Tomo Watanabe

Wiley Wang

International Merchants

Corn 

• Asian buyers have almost completed their purchases up to the October shipment. 
• They have been hesitant to purchase November shipment for a while, expecting further price drops. 
• Additionally, since the futures continue to decline, there is no selling from producers, and inland trade is slow. 
• As a result, PNW FOB price has not changed significantly recently. 
• The next price movement is expected to occur when the futures rises. 
• If it happens, it can be imagined that both farmer selling and buyer purchasing will surge simultaneously, indicating that the potential price volatility is high. 

Soybeans 

• No particular activity. 
• The US-China relationship remains uncertain, but if China were to start purchasing US agricultural products, FOB prices would undoubtedly soar. 

Wheat 

• Wheat futures are havering at contract lows and continue to go lower. 
• In the absence of soybean exports, we need more wheat export to maintain the viability of the supply chain. 
• Abnormal number of precipitations across northern states, begin to create complications from quality and logistical stand of point. 
• Prolonged heavy rains across France, eastern Europe, Baltic and Black Sea regions, are providing support for the feed wheat and low protein milling wheat market. Global buyers are looking for alternatives, and in some cases, begin to pay up. We are seeing increased demand for SWW at PNW. But the flip side of the weather issue in Europe, is that they will all end up producing more feed wheat and begin to drag the feed value to a much lower level once they have the logistics sorted out. 
• CWRS crop size gets bigger every day and they are committed to be competitive. Australian wheat production is on track to have a good year as well. 

PULSES

Matt Searcy, Merchant

Peas 

• Late and dragged-out rains have delayed Harvest across Montana and parts of North Dakota. 
• Bleaching is expected in some areas of Montana due to recent weather. 
• Chinese pea importers have been hesitant to do more business with US exporters due to tariff uncertainty. Currently the US is well positioned versus Canadian  
• Indian pea importers have shown much less demand than the previous year. 

Lentils 

• India markets are on edge after the US announced a 50% tariff on India products – retaliation for purchasing Russian oil. This news has buyers on the sideline waiting for India government’s response. India is a great market for #2 US lentils.  
• Some serious concern for crop condition after Montana rains over last two weeks. 
• Lentil values into export markets have been on a steady decline over the past 30 days. 
• Early concerns that this year’s crop will have discoloration issues. 

Chickpeas

• Chickpea values into Pakistan have been  
• Demand for 9MM and 10MM chickpeas will be big this year. 

Dry Beans

• Pinto markets have been weak since the USDA released the June acreage report and there was not a sizeable decrease in supply. 
• Mexico continues to get rains and finish planting season. 
• Argentina Black Bean prices continue to lower as their typical export market, Brazil, is covered and also looking to export.