ISSUE 156, SEPT. 5, 2025

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT

Justin Beach,

Red Wheat Product Line Manager 

The past 2 weeks have been ugly for the Hard Red Spring Market. MT harvest continues and is wrapping up. Overall, deliveries were low and as much went to the bin as possible. Quality was a mixed bag as there are pockets of lower DHV and lower FN wheat that will need to come to market. MT quality typically is used for a blender to improve ND quality for DHV but that will be more difficult for the exporter this year. Protein across the state is about 0.2-0.3% lower than last year and yields were lackluster, yet again. ND harvest continues and the overarching themes were better quality, higher protein, and huge deliveries. The market is working to diverge values for 14.0 pro NS 50 vs 14+ pro darks. Now, we will have to see if 65 DHV buyers downgrade to 50 DHV and if 75 DHV buyers downgrade to 60/65 DHV. Overall, the biggest takeaway is that DHV blends will be harder for the industry this year. The Sep/Oct cash market feels very heavy on basis for domestic and export generic values however we are seeing higher protein and color hold relative value. Either way, the market went into harvest undersold even given weak MT receipts. Export business is LH October forward now and exporters in the PNW are prioritizing corn shipments due to producer pressure. We anticipate protein scales to narrow in ND and export sales to increase for Nov-Dec. Canadian basis levels were taking business from the US but early reports of lower protein and increased demand should support basis and allow some business to return to the US. 

DURUM

Ryan Statz, Merchant

• Harvest is about wrapped up in Montana, 50% completed in North Dakota, and about 25% complete in Saskatchewan. 
• In general, the crop was bigger than anticipated in terms of yields but also felt varying degrees of quality implications due to heavy rainfall throughout durum country in the July 10-Aug 5 window.
• Markets have taken a significant hit to the downside the last few weeks due to a few reasons;          
• Old crop supply was carried into new crop markets as a hedge against droughty May/June conditions. 
• Demand has taken a major step back as domestic buyers also carried in heavy stocks from pre-tariff Canadian flows to hedge against droughty new crop concerns that were present in April-June. 
• Much bigger supply than originally anticipated. 
• The quality spread has the few buyers that are poking around still on the sidelines waiting for their spot to pick and choose. 
• Simply put, harvest production around the world was better than expected and with old crop carry-ins being burdensome, there really isn’t a need for new crop stocks domestically or internationally – at the moment. 
• The market will reflect this situation with widened carry structures into the Nov-Dec windows when the market can find demand again.
• In general, prices need to incentivize demand, and it will be the markets job to find it…this likely means thru lower prices. Did we do enough to entice it?

SOFT WHITE WHEAT

Steve Yorke, Merchant

As we move out of wheat harvest cash prices are at the low end of the (90-Day) range once again. As of this writing we moved under the $6.00 mark and are bidding $5.95 with little reason to move much in either direction. If anything, we probably see a little more downside unless some unexpected swing business comes our way. China is quiet and we have not seen anymore feed cargos trade into Korea since early harvest. Export sales are delayed this week due to the Monday holiday, but no surprises are expected. Currently we sit about 15% behind last year’s robust pace. Routine business continues but it is on the light side. Australia is reporting a bigger crop coming this year with the latest estimate pegged at 33.8MMT, 4^th largest crop on record. They received timely rains in much of the wheat producing areas. As we all know harvest for them is fast approaching and they will once again be in direct competition with our white wheat. I am not painting a great picture here so moving forward any rallies will need to be sold and make sure you have orders in and working to capture rallies as they will most likely be short lived. Keep an eye out for upcoming grower meetings in your area. We are always available to discuss all the marketing tools we have to offer. https://columbiagrain.com/producer-solutions/

Jow Foley, Merchant

CORN

Corn prices have been retracing some of the recent gains

• Previous higher prices followed fund short covering and strong exports
• Market expectations are for a slight yield reduction in the September 12^th wasde report

North Dakota expecting bumper crop

• Current usda projections calling for 148.0 yield and 632mln bushel production
• Last year’s crop was 542mln bushels with a 149.0 yield

Current U.S. corn production estimates are slightly lower than the August wasde projection

• A relatively dry August and lingering warm nights may have trimmed total U.S. production this year

U.S. exports remain very strong

• Old crop sales and shipments were 70mmt vs. 56mmt a year ago
• New crop sales are already 18.8mmt vs. 9.4mmt a year ago
• PNW inspections (Sep’24-Aug’25) ended up at nearly 19mmt

Outlook for prices

• Look for crop finishing weather forecasts, continuing pace of export sales and the September wasde estimates

SOYBEANS

Soybean prices have been sagging from the previous move higher

• Mostly benign weather has most observers pegging production slighty below a year ago

-China’s complete absence from U.S. nu crop exports the overriding bearish element to prices

• China bought 22.5mmt from the U.S. in the fall of 2024, 44.6pct of the total
• There are no china purchases on the books for nu crop; last year at this time nearly 3mmt purchased

Brazil August exports record large as they servicing China demand

• September exports from Brazil may also be record large

New crop U.S. exports are only 7.2mmt so far, vs. 10.2mmt a year ago

• New crop cash bids are extremely weak in ND, following China’s absence from the PNW corridor
• Carryout projections will start to rise should the current trade spat with China persist

Outlook for prices

• It’s all about September weather, trade developments and the September12 wasde report

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT

Ryan Statz, Merchant

• HRW harvest has endured a particularly wild ride that many did not see coming. Much of this was due to the substantial rainfall seen in the Northern Tier the last 45 days. This did a number of things; 
• Increased production. 
• Widened out harvest windows. 
• Led to numerous quality deficient pockets. 
• Given the market extremely favorable planting conditions in Montana for the ‘26/27 marketing campaign. 
• The increased production overwhelmed Aug/FH Sept markets and in turn, plummeted nearby prices and widened carries to OND markets. 
• With market supply nearly set, market will turn to demand and how to navigate the off-quality within.
• Low flat prices exist. There are still wide KC/MPLS board carries. And how much of the last 50% of the Montana crop will have quality issues – and to what degree? All factors that will keep HRW interesting. 
• Excellent overall May - Aug demand – but mostly through the Gulf, not nearly consistent enough in the PNW. However, US flat prices are still enticing world-wide…this will lead to continued demand. Note that incremental business is starting to show up in PNW September export lineups…stay tuned.
• US trade deals is also a feature the market is watching…Bangladesh in particular is one market where deals are being finalized. The details are still coming out.
• We want to wish you a safe finish to harvest! Please keep in touch with your local CGI representative in regard to programs and marketing options on how to ultimately add value to your operations and marketing plans.

We talk about different marketing environments a lot and how to read the market to determine what marketing tool we should be using in the marketing environment we may find ourselves in. The market prices for just about all commodities have taken a rather drastic turn from what we had been experiencing over the last several years. With that the variety of marketing tools we have in our Columbia Producer Solutions platform offers tools for a wide array of marketing environments.

I like to say, ‘sell the premium’, what do I mean by that? What I am referring to is when we look at how the cash price is established and the relationship between the futures price and the basis value. Whichever aspect (the futures price or the basis price) is considered to be the ‘premium’ we should be selling or contracting that portion of the cash price. So, if we find ourselves in a marketing environment where the futures prices are considered ‘low’, like we find ourselves now, we should be considering a basis contract. A basis contract locks in just the basis portion of the cash price, the futures price continues to fluctuate until you establish the futures price. When we are creating a basis contract ultimately want the futures price to go up in value from the initial futures prices we could have established. If the futures price increases this will give you a better cash price than what you could have originally received.

Just as any contracts, basis contracts have risk associated with them. The risk with basis contracts is the futures price goes down by the time you establish your futures price. The good news is there is some flexibility with basis contracts, we can look to amend basis contracts to use a deferred futures month for pricing. When you amend your basis contract it ‘buys’ you time, time to see the futures market potentially increase in price. 

The way a basis contract works for amending them is the exact opposite of when we amend an HTA contract. For example, let’s say you established a basis contract on 1,000 bushels of HRW for harvest delivery at -.50 KWU5 (Kansas September 2025 futures). Let’s say the futures market price has come down from when you originally started the 1,000 bushels basis contract and you don’t want to set your futures price just yet. We can amend your original basis contract of -.50 Kansas September 2025 futures to use the Kansas December 2025 futures, which would buy you additional time to set your futures price. 

The mechanics behind amending your basis contract from one month to another is calculated by using the difference in price between Kansas September 2025 futures and Kansas December 2025 futures price. If, for example the futures market is a ‘carry market’ where the deferred month is priced higher than the nearby month, we would subtract that price spread from your original basis contract value. 

So, in this example if there was a futures carry of 20 cents from September to December and you amend you -.50 September basis contract to December the new value your basis contract would have would be -.70 December Kansas futures. 

Kansas City Futures 

On the flip side of that if the futures market was an ‘inverted market’, where the nearby month is priced higher than the deferred month, we would add that price spread from your original basis contract value. 

Kansas City Futures 

o, in this example if there was an inverse of 20 cents from September to December and you amend you -.50 September basis contract to December the new value your basis contract would have will be -.30 December Kansas futures.

Bottom line is market conditions change, being able to read the market environment we find ourselves in and using the marketing tools the market dictates is an important aspect of getting the most we can out of the market we find ourselves in. Be sure to reach out to your local managers and buyers for all the marketing tools we offer in our Columbia Producers Solutions platform.

Sean Ferguson, Merchant

FLAX

• Crop conditions across ND, AB, and SK remain among the best of the planted grains/oilseeds. 
• Good-to-excellent ratings are estimated around 70% of planted acres in SK/AB. ND is closer to 80% good-to-excellent across planted acres. 
• StatsCan pegs 2025 Canadian flax production at 328,000 MT, while most industry estimates are 375–400K MT. 
• Higher production would provide a much-needed backfill to tight carry-in stocks for the new crop year. 
• Chinese buyers continue to source out of Kazakhstan/Russia as their production proves substantial. 
• With Chinese and EU demand met by Russian/Kazakh supplies, a cap remains on global flax prices. 
• FOB prices from Kazakhstan/Russia have fallen from late-July levels. 
• Old-crop values have converged with new-crop prices as buyers show little preference between old-crop delivery and early new-crop timing. 

CANOLA

Perks of growing winter non-GMO canola: 

• Higher yields than spring canola varieties. 
• Strong rotational benefits. 
• Breaks pest, disease, and weed cycles when rotated with cereals or pulses. 
• Helps manage grassy weeds. 
• Non-GMO price premium. 
• Lower input costs versus GMO canola. 

Market info: 

• Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola continue to pressure North American values. 
• Chinese buyers have been able to fill needs from the EU and Australia. 
• Expect more Canadian canola to move into the U.S. market this year if Chinese tariffs remain in place. 
• The outlook for biofuel/sustainable aviation fuel use remains optimistic; near term demand is soft as buyers are covered and markets await clarity on blending mandates, tax credits, and subsidies. 
• Soy oil use is recovering on stronger biofuel demand. 
• StatsCan estimates Canadian canola production at 19.9 MMT; most trade estimates are 20.5–21.0 MMT. 
• A 20.5–21.0 MMT crop would be near the 2018 record of 21.46 MMT. 
• Managed money continues to trim ICE canola futures length. 
• The latest CFTC report shows managed money net long at 27.7k contracts, or 12.1% of ICE canola open interest (down from 53k two weeks earlier). 
• The Canadian dollar weakened over the past week amid geopolitical concerns spilling into oil values, putting pressure on the Loonie. 
• A weaker Loonie is supportive of Canadian exports. 
• Board crush margins traded flat over the past week while ICE canola futures fell in step with vegetable oil values. 

INTERNATIONAL

Yuichiro Kawata

Tomo Watanabe

Wiley Wang

International Merchants

Corn 

• Asian buyers have covered about 90% for November and are starting to look at December shipments this week. 
• It appears Latin America is showing interest for November/December shipments, but it seems unlikely that they would really buy from PNW.
• FOB PNW remains very competitive versus other origins, though the price spread is narrowing. 
• Korean and Taiwanese buyers are likely to hold off as futures have been rising to 4.20Z. 
• USDA Crop Progress suggests good yield, therefore the harvest pressure is approaching. 
• If Asian buyers start purchasing, the FOB price will likely collapse momentarily, but thereafter it will gradually rise again. 
• Depending on Brazilian price, additional demand from Southeast Asia would come to PNW for December. 

Soybeans 

• Taiwan is tendering for December/January shipment this week. 
• Prices are under pressure on weak demand and no U.S.–China deal ahead of the U.S. harvest. 
• Tariff uncertainty has increased after Trump-tariffs were ruled illegal, further dimming hopes for a quick deal with China. 
• PNW remains competitive but China keeps buying mainly from Brazil. 
• Without tariff exemption, China is unlikely to buy U.S. soybeans. 

Wheat 

• Most buyers are covered for Oct and looking for Nov/Dec positions.
• PNW is losing feed wheat market to much cheaper European and Black Sea feed wheats. 
• We are also losing market on low to mid protein to these competitive originations, plus Argentina wheat becomes very aggressive into SE Asia as well. 
• Canadian CWRS are seeing bigger spread between High pro and low pro, also grade 1 to 2, as traders begin to hedge some of the harvesting risks. 

Lars Birkeland



Not long ago, Montana's harvest schedule was quite straightforward: farmers would first cut their winter wheat, followed by spring wheat and barley. However, today’s agricultural landscape presents a much more intricate timeline. It’s now common for Montana farmers to cultivate a diverse array of crops, including winter wheat, spring wheat, canola, peas, lentils, and chickpeas in a single year. This shift in crop diversity is reflected in the statistics, revealing a decline in planted acres of wheat and barley, while planted acres of pulses have surged—showing nearly a 10% increase from 2024 to 2025.

This evolving trend brings with it heightened challenges in harvest scheduling, exacerbated by a series of unpredictable weather events. Some regions have faced hail damage, while others have been subjected to persistent rainfall. For the second consecutive year, harvest rains have hindered progress and impacted crop quality.

Winter wheat has experienced sprout and falling number issues, along with lower test weights. Pulses have encountered challenges such as bleaching, shriveling, and seed coat Last weekend, I had the pleasure of attending a fantastic "Harvest Party" at a farm in Great Falls. The atmosphere was lively, and the food was absolutely delicious. The event marked the end of their harvest season—a true testament to the months of hard work, dedication, and resilience in the face of challenges like hail, drought, pests, and fires. While some regions of the state are still wrapping up their harvests, we are certainly nearing the finish line. Many might assume that farmers can now kick back and relax for a few months—if only that were the case!

In reality, the time for relaxation is increasingly scarce, particularly for our winter canola growers. With the ideal planting window from mid to late August, the timing for winter canola planting is critical. The goal is to get the plants to the 4 to 6 leaf stage, which enhances their chances of surviving our harsh winters. As part of our new non-GMO winter canola program, we've partnered with growers across Montana. Thankfully, all planting has been completed, and many fields are fully emerged and thriving. Although our August rains posed challenges for the harvest, they created excellent conditions for winter canola planting. The combination of good moisture and warm weather has given our crops a great start.

For those who have planted non-GMO winter canola but are not yet under contract, please don't hesitate to reach out to us at CGI. We would be happy to help you find a home for your crop."

integrity concerns. Despite these setbacks, the overall quality of the harvest has remained better than initially anticipated.

While the recent rains have posed challenges during harvest, they have also created favorable planting conditions for our fall-seeded crops. We’ve already begun planting acres for our new non-GMO winter canola program, with many more to follow in the coming week.

Wishing you the best of luck as you continue with the harvest!