Kevin Warsh Could Shake Up the Fed

Dear Clients & Friends,

I hope all the fathers had a wonderful Father's Day weekend. I spent a good part of mine parked in front of the TV alongside my son Luke, watching the U.S. Open and rooting for Scottie Scheffler. While he didn't come away with the win, I wasn't disappointed with the outcome.

There were actually two touching Father's Day moments that stood out to me. The first came on the 18th hole when 17-year-old amateur Miles Russell surprised his dad by having his caddie hand over the bag and caddie bib so they could walk the final fairway together. His father had no idea it was coming, making it a pretty special gift.

The second came after Wyndham Clark sank the winning putt. As the celebration unfolded on the 18th green, Wyndham was surprised by his dad who took a red eye in, making for a heartfelt moment between father and son. Both scenes were wonderful reminders of how much family means, even on golf's biggest stage.

I also enjoyed some FaceTime with my kids, who live far away, and capped off the day with my all-time favorite meal: extra-spicy Indian food.

Now...as for the markets, investors continue to navigate uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, global events, and economic trends, but there are still several encouraging signs beneath the headlines. Business investment in infrastructure, technology, artificial intelligence, and data centers continues to support economic growth and productivity, even in a higher interest rate environment. Inflation remains a key focus, but some of the recent pressure appears tied to energy and supply-related factors that could ease if geopolitical tensions stabilize.

At the same time, uncertainty around the future direction of the Federal Reserve, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and the possibility of interest rates remaining higher for longer could contribute to market volatility. While oil prices have remained relatively stable, changes in global demand or supply disruptions could quickly reignite inflation concerns.

Overall, we remain cautiously optimistic. The economy continues to show resilience, supported by business investment and technological innovation, but we expect periods of market volatility as investors react to policy decisions and global developments.

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As always, maintaining a long-term perspective and staying focused on your financial goals is more important than reacting to short-term market movements. If you have questions about how current events may impact your investment strategy, please feel free to reach out.

Best regards,

Rick

Richard B. Welsh, A.A.M.S.

Founder & President

LPL Market Signals Podcast

Shock, Awe, and a Hawkish Turn: The First Warsh Fed Meeting

In this week’s LPL Market Signals, Chief Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum and Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach break down the first Federal Reserve meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, highlighting a more hawkish-than-expected stance, streamlined communication, and the introduction of new task forces focused on inflation, data, and AI. The discussion also reflects on the legacy of Alan Greenspan following his passing, noting his lasting influence on Fed policy and communication. The episode concludes with updated economic projections, including elevated inflation expectations, potential fourth-quarter disinflation, and key risks tied to geopolitics, growth, and labor markets.

From Marie's desk...

A Tribute to Alan Greenspan - "The Maestro"

Dear Clients and Friends,

Alan Greenspan, known to many as "The Maestro," leaves behind a legacy that is both celebrated and debated. As Chairman of the Federal Reserve for nearly two decades, he helped guide the American economy through periods of remarkable growth, low inflation, and economic stability, earning the respect of investors, policymakers, and everyday Americans alike.

No influential leader escapes criticism, and history has linked some of his policies and faith in market self-regulation to conditions that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis. Greenspan himself later acknowledged flaws in some of his assumptions - a reminder that even the brightest minds continue to learn.

Yet when the balance sheet of a life is considered, it is hard not to admire a man who shaped economic policy across multiple administrations, influenced generations of central bankers, and remained intellectually engaged for an entire century. He reached the remarkable age of 100, a milestone few achieve and even fewer do while leaving such an enduring mark on the world.

Perhaps no quote captures Greenspan's wit and mystique better than:

"Since I've become a central banker, I've learned to mumble with great incoherence. If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said."

Rest in peace, Alan Greenspan. The Maestro's music was not always perfect, but it was undeniably influential, and its echoes will continue to be heard in the world's financial markets for years to come.

Best,

Marie

Finding Joy in the Journey

While we take finances seriously, we also believe joy matters. A balanced life isn’t just about money—it’s about the moments that make you smile. In this section, we share a few of our “little joys” and a glimpse into our personal side.

The Adventures of Achilles (and Me)

For those of you keeping score at home, my Achilles and I are still not seeing eye to eye.

Today's treatment plan felt a bit like a punishment for all those years I've spent happily running around tennis courts. First came the cortisone shot to reduce the swelling. Then an hour of physical therapy, where I was reminded that muscles I didn't even know I had can somehow hurt.

But wait... there was more.

To finish things off, I had dry needling. If you've never experienced dry needling, just picture someone sticking needles into sore muscles and assuring you it's for your own good.

Oye!

The good news is that all of this is supposed to get me back on the tennis court. The bad news is that right now when I get out of a chair to take my first few stepsI look like I've forgotten how walking works.

I'm doing what I'm told, checking all the boxes, and trying to be patient. Neither Achilles nor patience has ever been one of my strengths, so this may be the real challenge.

Stay tuned. Hopefully next week's update involves fewer needles.

What If…?

Ever wonder what’s possible for your financial future? At WFG, our partnership with LPL gives us the tools to help you see all that your future can hold. Watch this short video to learn why we’re proud to partner with LPL and how it strengthens the support we provide you.

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