July 22, 2026

From Rick's desk...

China Holds Keys to Post-War Oil Prices

I hope this message finds you well. As we move through the summer, the markets continue to navigate a mix of encouraging economic trends and ongoing global uncertainties.

The U.S. economy remains on solid footing, supported by resilient consumer spending, moderating inflation, and continued investment in innovation - particularly in artificial intelligence and technology. While these factors continue to support economic growth, investors should remain mindful of several risks, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising import costs, and signs of slower hiring.

One key factor influencing markets is China's economy. Slower growth in China has reduced demand for oil, helping to offset upward pressure on energy prices despite global tensions. Going forward, China's economic performance will likely play an important role in determining the direction of oil prices and inflation.

Overall, the outlook remains constructive. A diversified, long-term investment approach continues to be the best strategy as markets work through periods of uncertainty while benefiting from the underlying strength of the U.S. economy.

This week's podcast also offers some valuable perspective. Paul Ticu, Head of Asset Allocation and Client Solutions at Calamos Investments, shares thoughtful insights on the importance of protecting against downside risk rather than trying to predict market outcomes or "time" the market - an investment philosophy we have embraced for many years.

One of my favorite takeaways from the conversation was his simple but powerful reminder: "Money that isn't lost is money made." It's a great way to think about long-term investing and the value of disciplined risk management. I encourage you to listen to the full podcast for more of Paul's practical insights. If you have any questions, please know my door is always open.



Best regards,

Rick

Richard B. Welsh, A.A.M.S.

Founder & President

From Marie's desk...

When Everything Changes… Except Human Nature

Dear Clients and Friends,

I hope you're enjoying your summer!

Long before I entered the financial industry, I earned my degree in psychology because I’ve always been fascinated by human behavior - what drives our decisions and how emotions influence our actions.

That interest has proven to be incredibly valuable in investing. While markets, technology, and economies continue to evolve at a rapid pace, one thing has remained constant: human nature. Fear and greed have influenced investor behavior for generations, and they continue to shape decisions today.

When markets are performing well, it’s easy to feel like we need to take on more risk. When volatility arrives, it’s natural to want to step away until things feel more comfortable. But those emotional reactions can often lead investors away from the long-term plan designed to help them achieve their goals.

That’s why our focus has never been on predicting the next headline or trying to time the market. Instead, we believe in building thoughtful, diversified portfolios designed to navigate different market environments. We often refer to this as “smoothing out the ride.”

The world around us continues to change - artificial intelligence, interest rates, geopolitical events, and economic shifts all create new challenges and opportunities. Rather than trying to predict exactly what will happen, we believe in scenario planning and building portfolios that are prepared for a variety of outcomes.

At the end of the day, successful investing is about more than numbers and market forecasts. It’s about having a plan, staying disciplined, and making decisions that align with what matters most to you.

Markets will always change. Human nature probably won’t. Our role is to help you navigate both.

Best,

Marie

The Great Welsh Pond Snake Saga

We recently discovered that our little backyard pond had gained a new resident - a snake who had decided to live rent free while enjoying an endless goldfish buffet.

Apparently, our fish were the perfect snack… although our koi proved to be a little too ambitious of a meal.

My first reaction was, of course, very reasonable: “Off with his head!” Luckily, Rick - the calm, nature-loving voice of reason - had a better plan. He ordered a humane snake trap from Amazon, which arrived in just two days (during which time Mr. Snake continued enjoying his complimentary dining experience).

Once Rick placed the trap in the pond, it took only an hour for our slippery guest to be caught. He has since been relocated to the Sykesville River, where he can enjoy life with his fellow snakes - far away from our goldfish and Hank, our pond-loving dog who considers daily swims part of his routine.

All is peaceful in the Welsh pond once again. Now we just need to rebuild our fish population… and hope Mr. Snake didn’t tell all his friends about the five-star accommodations waiting in our backyard!

410.777.5897