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June 19, 2026

 

From Rick's desk...


Introducing the IPO Class of 2026


Dear Clients and Friends,


I’ve been in a steady stream of conversations over the last day or so about the SpaceX IPO and what it could signal for the broader IPO market and portfolios. There’s clearly growing attention around the potential 2026 issuance wave.


At a high level, the IPO market appears to be reopening after a long post-2021 drought, supported by improved risk appetite, stronger macro conditions, and a sizable pipeline of mature private companies. The key difference this cycle is scale - several expected deals are large enough to matter for index composition, passive flows, and the AI-driven market narrative.


SpaceX is the most visible example, with its S-1 filing and diversified business across launch services, Starlink, and defense and space infrastructure. AI “frontier model” companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic are also moving toward public markets after raising capital at very large private valuations, sitting at the center of the debate around AI adoption, margins, and long-term profitability.


From a market structure perspective, roughly $160B in potential U.S. IPO issuance and faster index inclusion rules could increase the speed and scale at which new issues enter passive portfolios - raising the importance of liquidity and volatility management as supply is absorbed.


History is a useful guide: IPO performance has been highly uneven, with median first-year returns negative and drawdowns frequently around 50%, even when long-term winners emerge. Strong companies do not always translate into strong first-year stock performance.


The broader AI IPO wave adds another layer, as public markets will increasingly be asked to price not just infrastructure beneficiaries, but also model and application-layer companies where growth is strong but profitability is still being proven.


The takeaway is simple: focus on business quality, valuation discipline, and structure - especially float, lockups, and index dynamics.

I know I always say it - but it's true - my door is always open. If you’d like to talk through any of this or discuss positioning, feel free to give me a call anytime.



Best regards,

 

Rick


Richard B. Welsh, A.A.M.S.

Founder & President

LPL Market Signals Podcast

Midterms and Markets:

An Early Look Ahead


This week on LPL Market Signals, LPL Research and LPL Government Relations team up to discuss the setup for midterm elections and how the outcome might affect markets.

From Marie's desk...


Why Gold Still Captures Our Attention


Dear Clients and Friends,


If you've watched the news lately, you've probably heard that gold prices have been hitting record highs.


Whenever that happens, I can't help but picture pirate treasure chests, old Western bank vaults, and grandmothers who insisted on keeping their valuables tucked away "just in case."


It's funny when you think about it. Thousands of years have passed, we've invented computers, smartphones, and artificial intelligence, yet when people get nervous, many still turn their attention to a shiny yellow metal.


Why?


Gold has something that many modern investments don't: a long history. Long before there were stock markets, retirement plans, or online banking, people recognized gold as something rare and valuable. That trust has been passed down through generations.


What's interesting is that gold itself doesn't do very much. It doesn't pay interest. It doesn't send dividend checks. It doesn't invent new products or hire employees. It just sits there and shines.


Yet when uncertainty creeps into the headlines - whether it's inflation, global conflicts, government debt, or market volatility - gold often becomes the center of attention.


In many ways, gold is less a story about economics and more a story about human behavior. When people feel confident, they tend to focus on growth and opportunity. When they feel uncertain, they often look for something familiar and dependable.


That instinct hasn't changed much over the centuries.


So the next time you hear that gold is reaching new highs, remember that the story may not really be about the metal. It may be about how people are feeling. Sometimes the most valuable thing gold provides isn't wealth - it's peace of mind.


Gold's enduring appeal isn't simply a matter of economics. It's a reminder that even in a rapidly changing world, the desire for certainty remains remarkably constant.

Best,


Marie


Marie A. Welsh

Partner & Chief Operations Officer

In observance of Juneteenth, our office will be closed today - Friday, June 19.


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We hope you enjoy a relaxing and memorable weekend with those you love.

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