Weekly Analyst Review
BOTTOM LINE UPFRONT: During the first month of 2021, Islamic State insurgents claimed 156 operations across the world, resulting in increased operational tempos within Nigeria and Afghanistan to devastating effect. Attacks in Iraq and Syria remained relatively stable, but ambushes on Syrian Arab Army transports and the assassination of local officials in northeast Syria, coupled with the dual suicide bombings in Baghdad, prove that the insurgents are still a potent, dangerous force in the lands of the former Caliphate. The Central African (ISCA) affiliate still controls Mocimboa da Praia in Mozambique, an occupation that has compelled French Total gas company to reevaluate its gas-reserve holdings in the area. In Afghanistan, magnetic IED bombings claimed by the Khurasan (ISK) affiliate have rocked Kabul and Jalalabad on a near daily basis, and militants successfully kidnapped and executed eleven Hazara coal miners across the border in Balochistan, Pakistan. 
Though it is easy to equate the escalation of global attacks to Islamic State's desire to start 2021 with a huge push, it should be noted that Islamic State's global operations are not planned from a central war room. There is always an ebb and flow of sheer IS claim numbers. More likely the escalations in Nigeria and Afghanistan are merely taking advantage of security vacuums and continued flow in new recruitment. That said, Islamic State remains an ominous threat in 2021 in all areas where they operate.
Top Incidents & Analysis
Image (Above): Bomb remnant
Image (Below): Published claim by the previously unknown group, Jaish-ul-Hind.
TRAC INCIDENT REPORT: Bomb Detonates Outside Israeli Embassy in New Delhi, India
On the evening of 29 January 2021, a small bomb blast occurred outside the Embassy of Israel in India. The impact of the explosion did no damage to the Israeli Embassy building but it did shatter windows from three vehicles parked near the explosion. Though the incident is being investigated as a terrorist attack, the low-quality explosive materials used combined with the minor damage, it is likely that the bomb was intended to draw attention to New Delhi over an attempt to take lives. Across India, but especially in New Delhi, farmer's protests are in their third day, but garnering little international attention. Speculatively, a bomb on an important structure so close to the famed Taj Mahal would prompt an investigation from the international press. A previously unknown group, Jaish-Ul-Hind, claimed credit for the attack via Telegram. Many have doubted the authenticity of the claim from another unknown group, SarAllah India Hezbollah as well as a purported letter left at the scene.  
TRAC INCIDENT REPORT: French Total Gas Company To Relocate Offices to the French Overseas Region of Mayotte, Grande-Terre Island, 500km Off The Coast of Cabo Delgado, Mozambique
A purported attack took place during the night of 22/23 January 2021, in Nangade District in Cabo Delgado. Satellite images spotted fires within this settlement, roughly 5 km south of the Mozambique / Tanzania border. As this conflict continues to escalate, French Total Gas Company has decided to relocate its office workplace to the Grande-Terre island located in the French overseas region of Mayotte. The island lies north of the Mozambique Channel in the Indian Ocean, approximately 500 km east of Mozambique. The decision to move headquarters to Mayotte comes with risks as well as the island having been experiencing brutal civil unrest with rival gangs since the summer of 2020. Obviously, conducting operations 500 kilometers east of Mozambique will be a logistical nightmare for the gas company, but the move also comes as news from within Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jamo/Ansar al-Sunna (Shabaab Cult) ' Islamic State Sentral Africa (Wilayat Wasat Ifriqiyah / ISCA) becomes more dire. For months the group has been struggling to feed its fighters and their families and new unconfirmed reports from a hostage who managed to escape captivity in Manilha village, are that at least one leader has quit the group.
Image (above): Satellite imagery of the 22/23 January fires spotted in Nangade District in Cabo Delgado.
Image (Below): Satellite imagery of France Total Gas company's LNG construction as of 08 December 2020.
Images: (Top) Proud Boys Chair Enrique Tarrio

(Below) Telegram Screenshot of a portion of Tarrio's response to the Reuters article.
TRAC INCIDENT REPORT: Proud Boys Chair Enrique Tarrio & Proud Goys React to Tarrio Being Outed as an FBI Informant in Florida, United States
In early December 2020, after being visited by the FBI, former Proud boy member Kyle Chapman warned that The Proud Boys were compromised and that Enrique Tarrio was likely already an FBI informant. By 27 January 2021 it was confirmed from court documents that Enrique Tarrio, in fact, had turned State evidence at least since 2012 during a narcotics ring bust in Florida. Kyle Chapman's reaction to the Reuters' revelation was further proof that the group is bound for dissolution. The optics of the revelation that Tarrio was/is an FBI informant will most certainly split the movement even further extreme far right towards the spin off The Proud Goys. In his defense, on 27 January 2021 via his Telegram channel, Enrique referenced the Reuters article and offered that other friends had also turned State's evidence and that mainstream media were already presupposed to convict him, never mind his own followers. It should be noted that he also states that he had staged his own arrest before the storming of the US Capitol building on 06 January 2021 and that it is well documented that many Proud Boy members were part of the Capitol siege.
On Our Radar:
TRAC INCIDENT REPORT: Al Shabaab Suicide Bomber (VBIED) Targets Afrik Hotel, Fighters Storm, Hold Siege & Take Hostages Inside Near KM4 Junction in Miranayo Area, Mogadishu, Somalia
(Right Wing Extremism/ Poster) Telegram Channel: Saint Calendar for February 2021
Car Bomb Targets Turkish-backed Hamza Division in al-Bab in Northwest Aleppo, Syria
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