Weekly Analyst Review
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: A potentially impactful development on the future of the Proud Boys in the United States as its brethren in Canada disbanded this week. On May 2, four months after it had been declared a domestic terrorist group by Canada, The Proud Boys Canada announced that it would dissolve. In its statement, the organization denied it was a terrorist organization and made the decision in part on a lack of funds to challenge the declaration in court. In reaffirming what it calls its Christian foundation, the group stated that "Fighting this in court will prove to be expensive and time consuming, Time that must be taken away from raising their children and loving their wives. They will continue to fight for western values...but individuals." We assess that although the exact effect of this decision on the larger Proud Boy organization including in the U.S. is yet to be seen, it should be noted that the founding leader, Gavin McGuinnis is a Canadian citizen and that Proud Boys in the US have always held close ties to Proud Boys in Canada. We view the disbandment announcement as yet another sign of the organization crumbling. Last February, five different Proud Boys chapters announced a mutiny from the larger umbrella group after it was discovered that the Proud Boys Chair Enrique Tarrio was outed as an FBI Informant in Florida. Though Enrique Tarrio circulated the Proud Boys Canada statement, he refrained to comment on the disbandment on his official Telegram channel.
Image (Above): Screenshots of video first circulated on Twitter on 28 April 2021, after Mayor Ted Wheeler called for police to more aggressively patrol the 'agitators' within the daily protests in the city that are causing much of the destruction.
TRAC INCIDENT REPORT: Anarchist Collective Demand Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler Resign and Threaten Death; Nothing But Absolute Abolition, Oregon, United States
The not so veiled threat to Portland's Mayor Ted Wheeler in the video is reminiscent of the Anonymous Collective from the 1990s-2000s when doxxing to target enemies addresses began. The speaker in the video claims to be a part of small group but part of the wider collective that calls for 'abolition' of the local government. The video first circulated on Twitter on 28 April 2021, but quickly made it to Telegram where it was widely circulated among both extreme left and extreme right Telegram channels. The threat itself represents yet another topical conversion between both extreme's calling for the collapse of governance. It should be noted that Oregon, in particular, is home to both the extreme far left and the extreme far right activists who frequently clash with each other, so cooperation between the two to create 'the collapse' is unlikely. The so-called Abolitionists movement in the Pacific Northwest of the United States has been active since at least June 2020. For the Abolitionists, their position is that "the Federal Government has already waged war against Portland."  Their name comes from the idea "The time for discussing reform is over, we need full abolition for our communities to be safe and free from rampant police terror." On 25 July 2020, the Youth Liberation Front (YLF) has made a "call to action" to other Abolitionist to six other identified groups, some from as far away as Maryland and Tennessee, to arrange to travel to Portland for a planned protest.
TRAC INCIDENT REPORT: Islamic State Central Africa (Wilayat Wasat Ifriqiyah / ISCA / Shabaab Cult) Warn Palma Residents (Cabo Delgado, Mozambique) to Evacuate; Mass Migration into Tanzania
Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jamo/Ansar al-Sunna (Shabaab Cult) ' Islamic State Sentral Africa (Wilayat Wasat Ifriqiyah / ISCA) is likely preparing for fresh attacks on Palma. It has been just about a month since ISCA fighters took Palma by both land and sea on three fronts. The pattern follows nearly the same plan as when ISCA fighters finally took Mocimboa da Praia in August 2020.  Mocimboa da Praia, Islamic State Central Africa (Wilayat Wasat Ifriqiyah) fighters peppered the port city with attacks, fled and then retook the town after security forces left before finally taking the town for good in August 2020. ISCA still holds Mocimboa da Praia as of 29 April 2021. Given the high-profile international attention the 27 March 2021 siege made, ISCA has been biding its time for the next big attack. Over the past week, locals have reported a pepping of attacks on security forces assigned to protect Palma. The small attacks coincide with reports of ISCA fighters warning locals to leave for their own safety. Intimidation tactics of arson attacks on homes in the area are meant to reinforce the message that the area is not safe. As such hundreds have began leaving Palma headed for Tanzania, crossing through Mueda. Still more reports that human smugglers trafficking the migrants out of Palma are demanding ever increasing sums to help escape by water. 
Images (Above): Screenshot of evacuation
Images: (Above) Screenshots of video showing arrests of MKU members in their apartments. The video provided by the FSB
TRAC INCIDENT REPORT: FSB Detained 16 Ukrainian Neo-Nazi MKU Members, Self-Called 'Maniacs' Promoting Mass Murder in Several Cities Across Russia
On 29 April 2021, FSB operatives arrested 16 members of the Ukrainian radical group "MKU". Its cells operated in 9 Russian cities: Irkutsk, Krasnodar, Saratov, Tambov, Tyumen, Chita, Anapa, Pushchino, Moscow region, Pereslavl-Zalessky, and Yaroslavl region. The MKU group propagates to commit mass murders, terrorist attacks on federal facilities, etc. During the raids, police officers found cell phones, laptops, and digital storages for information with extremist materials, instructions and guides of how to conduct and plan terrorist attacks, attack homeless people, and video messages with the leader of "M.K.U." Egor Krasnov. Little is known of the shadowy MKU “Manyaky. Kult Ubiyts” translation “Maniacs. Cult of Murderers” and their leader Egor Krasnov aka Yegor Yakovlev. There have been massive FSB arrests of swaths of MKU supporters, who call themselves 'maniacs', in Russia for the past three months.MKU has distributed an instructional guide on how to kill people on and has documented at least one such beat-to-kill with photos on the same platform.
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