Weekly Analyst Review

BOTTOM LINE UPFRONT: Leading into the siege of the U.S. Capitol Building a week ago, TRAC had monitored and collected on multiple groups spanning the political spectrum. The day had long been anticipated by many known agitators such as Proud Boys, NSC 131 Crew, QAnon conspiracists and BLM/ Antifa. Following the mayhem last week, our monitors immediately began looking into credible threats of violence directed at Washington D.C. and state capitals during the week leading up to the Presidential Inauguration on Wednesday 20 January, but we believe that extremists also have other targets in mind. As many Telegram channels have pointed out, the security forces that will be arrayed to secure the inauguration and state houses cannot be everywhere at once, leaving critical infrastructure and other soft targets vulnerable to attack. This point has been made by at least two influential Telegram channels with more than ten thousand subscribers between them. In such a scenario, autonomous cells of paramilitary-trained extremists could theoretically sabotage the electrical grid or knock out essential services. The recent vehicle bomb in downtown Nashville that disabled 911 and internet services proves that such operations are possible. The actions of the Unabomber and Timothy McVeigh are of course also venerated by extremist ideologues on Telegram, who have also circulated manuals and floated ideas for potential critical infrastructure sabotage for the past two years and remain presently in circulation. Threats do not merely exist online: a member of Atomwaffen Division was arrested with explosives and a blueprint of the national grid in his possession, and an Ohio teen stands accused of plotting to attack a power plant if Trump lost the 2020 election.
Top Incidents & Analysis
TRAC INCIDENT REPORT: Telegram Channel Circulates Instructional Advice: Don't Go To Second Million Militia March in Washington DC and Storm the Capitol; Attack Lawmakers Personal Residence in Home State.
TRAC had been monitoring both extreme far left and extreme far right communication networks regarding anticipated Stop the Steal march weeks before the actual storming of the US Capitol building on 06 January. On 22 December, TRAC reported on the first rumblings of a "Million Militia March" to be held on Inauguration Day, well before the Stop the Steal march was even scheduled to occur. Indeed, many on Telegram thought the destruction at the Capitol did not go far enough and are expecting much more from the second Million Militia March on 20 January. The idea that private residences of US federal politicians are legitimate targets has already had a dry run. On New Years Day, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's private residence in San Fransisco, California was vandalized with what was intended to look like pigs blood and a severed pig's head. The following day, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s private residence was also vandalized in Louisville, Kentucky. It is important to note that in October 2020 a group of individuals who named themselves the “Wolverine Watchmen" plotted to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer from her summer home in Michigan. 
(Video) Islamic State Sinai (ISS): 'Bleeding Campaigns'- Sinai, Egypt - 8 January
The last official video (disregarding Amaq Agency short clips) from the Sinai affiliate (ISS) was released in September, 2019. 
Entitled 'Bleeding Campaigns,' the 25 minute video message criticizes President Sisi and the trend of Arab States normalizing relations with Israel. Combat footage that includes raids on the homes of alleged collaborators (8:46mm) and IED detonations on Egyptian military assets are also featured throughout. A couple of spies are also interviewed and later executed on screen. Notable advances in IS Sinai technology is also featured in the video. Homemade grenade launchers are shown and used with Mk 118 submunition and CBU-100 Cluster Bomb. In the recent past, the affiliate has bombed at least two natural gas pipelines near al-Arish, the north Sinai town near the Israeli border, and also kidnapped and later executed an alleged spy near the Suez Canal.The video uses some of the tried and true media tactics of Islamic State feature length videos in their heyday, something that has been lacking in the majority of videos since the fall of Islamic State's great media machine. Showing everything from executions to indiscriminate bombings by the Sisi regime leading to the deaths of very young children, the video is certain to draw attention from Islamic State supporters.
Screenshots (above): ISS campaign video.
Image: (Top) Victims of attack in DRC.
TRAC INCIDENT REPORT: Nighttime Machete Attack Kills 22 in Mwenda, Rwenzori Sector, Beni district, North Kivu, Congo (DRC)
On the night of 04 January 2021, around 1900 GMT/08:00pm local time, fighters entered the Mwenda village from Kabembeu river armed with machetes and guns killing 22 civilians, including at least 10 women. At least ten more people were severely injured and there many still missing. Mwenda village located near the tourist destination of Virunga park. Though locals blame the recent killing sprees on Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), it is Islamic State Central Africa (Wilayat Wasat Ifriqiyah) who have been claiming the attacks. Since the end of November 2020 fighters have been moving from the extreme north (Oïcha-Mbau-Beni) to the south-eastern part in the Rwenzori sector.
On the same day as the attack, security forces discovered 21 bodies "in a state of decomposition" in the localities of Loselose and Loulo, which the Islamic State claimed had attacked seven days prior.
On Our Radar:
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