VIEW IN BROWSER 

TUESDAY, JANUARY 14, 2025

#FROM THE DIRECTOR'S DESK#

Libya is Now the Launchpad for Russia’s Renewed Ambitions

ARAB NEWS — Russia's strategic shift of military assets from Syria to Libya indicates a recalibration of its geopolitical focus in the Middle East and North Africa. With Libya's proximity to Europe and rich energy resources, Moscow seeks to leverage it as a central hub for extending its power projection, aiming to secure influence through economic and security alliances. The partnership with Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army solidifies Russia's role in Libyan affairs, facilitating military logistics and offering a base to exert influence on conflicts across Africa. Control over key installations, like Al-Jufra air base, allows Russia to impact NATO's strategic operations in the Mediterranean, posing challenges to alliance security, critical maritime routes and global energy markets. Through this repositioning, Libya becomes pivotal in Russia's broader strategy, transforming it into a linchpin for its renewed ambitions.

Nicolas Sarkozy Goes on Trial Over Charges He Took Campaign Funds From Libya

THE NEW YORK TIMES — Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy went on trial in Paris over allegations that his 2007 presidential campaign received illegal funding from the Libyan government under Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi. This trial, set to last three months, poses a significant legal threat to Sarkozy, who has already exhausted appeals in a separate corruption case, resulting in house arrest. Sarkozy faces allegations of accepting substantial sums from Qaddafi, which could lead to a 10-year prison sentence and a fine of nearly $400,000. Sarkozy denies any wrongdoing.

The Suez Canal Crisis: How Houthi Attacks are Crippling Egypt’s Revenue

EL PAÍS — The Suez Canal, vital for global trade and Egypt's economy, faces significant disruption due to Houthi attacks. Since November 2023, the Houthis have executed around 250 attacks on ships, aiming to pressure international intervention in Gaza. This has drastically reduced canal traffic, with daily ship crossings dropping from 72 to 27 by the end of 2023, leading many to reroute around Africa. Consequently, Suez Canal revenue fell by about 60%, amounting to a $7 billion loss in 2024. This crisis exacerbates Egypt's economic challenges, contributing to a current account deficit over $20 billion. Despite these setbacks, Egyptian authorities remain optimistic about the canal's strategic importance and plan further expansions to accommodate larger vessels in the future.

Diplomatic Gulf Between France and Algeria Widens

LE MONDE — The French-Algerian relationship may indeed be cyclical, subject to the regular up-and-down of quarrels and rapprochement – the legacy of a colonial history in which political strife was intertwined with immigration patterns – but the turbulent period in which Paris and Algiers find themselves has disarmed even the most optimistic. The latest crisis, which began last summer with the dispute over the Western Sahara and has been amplified since mid-November 2024 by the arrest of the French-Algerian writer Boualem Sansal, shows no sign of abating, at least in the short term.

Dozens Die in Shipwrecks Off Tunisia as 2025 is Already Deadly for Migrants in Mediterranean

CNN — At least 27 migrants died in two shipwrecks off the coast of Tunisia, with 83 others rescued near the Kerkennah Islands. Over the past week, four shipwrecks in the region have claimed 84 lives. In 2024, more than 2,200 people, including hundreds of children, died in the Mediterranean. The majority of these children were escaping violence and poverty. In total, since 2014, at least 31,184 migrants have died or gone missing in the Mediterranean, most frequently on the Central Mediterranean route. Despite a decrease in migrant landings in Italy, deaths and disappearances have remained consistent.

Libya Expels 600 Nigeriens in ‘Dangerous and Traumatising’ Desert Journey

THE GUARDIAN — Over 600 Nigerien migrant workers were expelled from Libya in a harsh journey across the Sahara, marking the largest known deportation to Niger. This comes amid accusations that EU policies are complicit in human rights violations against migrants by outsourcing border control to North African countries. The expulsions highlight a larger practice of rounding up foreign workers in Libya, exacerbated by the political climate under the Haftar coalition, which often views sub-Saharan Africans negatively. Libya has long attracted migrants from countries like Niger, Mali, and Chad for work or as a transit point to Europe.

Russia Eyes Libya to Replace Syria as Africa Launchpad

THE MOSCOW TIMES — Facing a strategic shift after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Russia is pivoting its focus from Syria to Libya as a key geopolitical foothold in Africa. It is reinforcing its presence by transferring military resources and personnel to support Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya, challenging the UN-backed Government of National Unity. Recent movements include the delivery of military equipment and radars from Russia and Syria, signaling Moscow's ambition to maintain influence in Africa and disrupt Western interests. However, Russia navigates complex regional dynamics with rival influences from Turkey, Egypt, and the UAE supporting opposing sides of Libya's fractured political landscape.

Diplomatic Crisis Grows as France Investigates Algerian Influencers

EURONEWS — France's investigation of six Algerian influencers for allegedly promoting violence against Algerian government critics has heightened diplomatic tensions between France and Algeria. Arrests and investigations of these influencers, including individuals with significant social media followings, have sparked accusations and counter-accusations, with France accusing Algeria of attempting to humiliate it and Algeria accusing France of waging a disinformation campaign. This situation exacerbates existing strains in the bilateral relationship, already fragile due to France's support for Morocco's claim over Western Sahara and its intensifying business ties with Morocco, which Algeria opposes.

Could Tensions Between Algeria and Morocco Heat Up With the Trump Presidency?

PASS BLUE — Tensions between Algeria and Morocco remain high due to diverging policies on Western Sahara and Morocco’s normalization with Israel. Diplomatic ties, severed since 2021, are strained further by incidents in disputed territories, posing escalation risks. Trump's re-election introduces uncertainty, with Morocco welcoming his presidency and Algeria, alongside the Polisario Front, expressing concern. The risk of conflict may increase if the U.S. disengages, leaving Europe to potentially step in to stabilize the situation. The strategic handling of these tensions depends heavily on mutual restraint and international actors' involvement.

Egypt Inflation Hits Two-Year Low, Easing Path to Rate Cut

BLOOMBERG — Egyptian inflation slowed to its lowest level in two years, easing the path for the North African nation’s first interest-rate cut since 2020. Annual consumer prices in urban areas rose 24.1% in December versus 25.5% the month before, according to the state statistics agency CAPMAS, marking a second consecutive month of slowing. It was its lowest since December 2022, according to Bloomberg data. The monthly inflation rate eased to 0.2% from 0.5% in November.

Morocco Receives 17.4 Million Tourists in 2024, Up 20% on 2023

REUTERS — Morocco saw a record 17.4 million tourists in 2024, a 20% increase from 2023, with Moroccans living abroad making up nearly half of the visitors. Tourism, contributing approximately 7% to the GDP, is crucial for jobs and foreign currency. The country aims to attract 26 million tourists by 2030, coinciding with its co-hosting of the World Cup. Revenue from tourism reached 104 billion dirhams by November, representing a 7.2% increase. Efforts to boost tourism include adding air routes and promoting new destinations domestically while renovating hotels.

ITA Airways Resumes Flights to Libya's Tripoli After 10-year Gap

REUTERS — ITA Airways has resumed flights to Tripoli, Libya, after a 10-year hiatus, marking a significant step in reconnecting Libya with international air travel. This resumption reflects improved security conditions and increasing economic opportunities in the region. The renewed service is expected to facilitate business and aid in Libya’s recovery efforts post-conflict. ITA Airways' return signals confidence in Libya’s relative stability and potential for future growth in aviation and other sectors.

Grand Tortue Ahmeyim Field Boosts Senegal and Mauritania Gas Production

GEOPOLITICAL MONITOR — The Grand Tortue Ahmeyim natural gas field, situated between Senegal and Mauritania, has begun operations, promising significant economic benefits for both countries. Senegal, already producing hydrocarbons from the Sangomar field, expects modest initial contributions from the Grand Tortue field with future plans to expand output, potentially generating $570 million in 2025. Mauritania, with a smaller population and lower GDP, stands to gain more per capita, especially given its less diversified hydrocarbon sector. Despite the challenges of ensuring widespread economic benefits, this development is poised to attract investment and enhance economic stability in both nations.

Egypt Rushes to Catch Up on Solar Energy as Gas Prices Soar

REUTERS — Egypt aims to ramp up solar energy development to counteract surging natural gas prices following a sharp decline in domestic gas production. The country imported over $1 billion more in LNG than expected last year, and further significant expenditures are anticipated in 2025. With abundant sunlight and vast deserts, Egypt has begun expanding solar infrastructure, highlighted by new projects like a $500 million, 500 MW solar array in Aswan. The government targets increasing renewable energy's share in its power mix to 42% by 2030, up from the current 11.5%, as part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on gas and enhance energy security.

Mauritania, U.S. Sign $27M Agreement to Strengthen Power Sector

ENERGY CAPITAL & POWER — Mauritania and the U.S. have signed a $27 million agreement under the Millennium Challenge Corporation Threshold Program, aimed at enhancing Mauritania's power sector. The U.S. will provide debt-free grants to improve power sector planning, grid operations, and electricity regulation. This initiative will aid Mauritania's long-term economic prosperity and environmental sustainability by developing critical infrastructure and fostering private sector investment. Additionally, the program will support environmental resilience and integrate climate and social considerations into environmental impact assessments.

SPECIAL FOCUS

THE NORTH AFRICA INITIATIVE & SAIS REVIEW THE LOOKING GLASS PODCAST

#New Episode #

The Libya Chronicles: A Nation in Flux

Catch the newest episode of The Looking Glass' "The Libya Chronicles: A Nation in Flux" — part of the first Maghreb Voices Mini Series dedicated to Libya, a collaboration between the SAIS Review of International Affairs and the North Africa Initiative at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).

This episode dives into Libya’s rich yet tumultuous history, from ancient kingdoms to the transformation of society under Gaddafi and beyond. Joining us is Stephanie Turco Williams, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy and former special adviser on Libya to the UN Secretary-General.

Stephanie shares her expertise on Libya’s social and economic shifts, informed by her extensive career, including roles as acting special representative for Libya and deputy special representative to the United Nations as well as 24 years in the U.S. Foreign Service focusing on the Middle East.

Stay tuned for her insights on Libya’s challenges, opportunities, and the global impact of its transformation.

You can listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH & STUDIES ON THE MEDITERRANEAN & MIDDLE EAST (IReMMO) | SEMINAR SESSIONS

#ONGOING EVENT#

Geopolitics of Natural Resources in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

JANUARY 9TH — MARCH 13TH, 2025 | THURSDAYS — 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM

Join IReMMO for an insightful seminar to explore the geopolitical underpinnings of natural resource management that crystallize power games and rivalries in the Mediterranean region and the Middle East. This issue has been central to the political, economic and social upheavals and the political making of identities and states in this region since the mid-20th century. Such seminar sessions will provide an opportunity to explore these different dynamics in greater depth and offer keys to better understand power strategies in light of food, agricultural, energy and water issues.

BROOKINGS

#UPCOMING EVENT — ONLINE#

Foresight Africa 2025-2030: The Road to Sustainable and Inclusive Development

JANUARY 14TH, 2025 | 09:00 AM to 12:00 PM EST

Join Brookings for an invigorating discussion on Africa's development prospects over the next five years. As 2025 dawns, many African countries enter the new year with a sense of cautious optimism, balancing considerable progress with persistent vulnerabilities. Despite challenges, opportunities abound for Africa to make a meaningful “last mile” push towards attaining the sustainable development goals. With the right policies and by capitalizing on its internal strengths—including human capital, natural resources, digital innovation, and regional integration—Africa can turn the tide and reshape the continent’s development trajectory.

PERSPECTIVES

THE NEW YORK TIMES

Egypt’s Economy Is Damaged. It Sees a Scapegoat, and a Potential Fix, in Refugees.

Egypt's stance on refugees has shifted dramatically as it grapples with a deepening economic crisis exacerbated by regional conflicts. Once welcoming, the country now views its significant refugee population—comprising Syrians, Sudanese, Yemenis, Eritreans, and Palestinians—as a burden driving up costs and straining resources. Egypt claims to spend $10 billion annually on its nine million refugees, although experts dispute this figure. The country's financial woes are tied to years of overspending, reliance on imports, and recent losses in crucial revenue streams like the $7 billion from the Suez Canal due to conflicts in Gaza. In response, Egypt has tightened policies, demanding high fees for residency and cracking down on undocumented migrants, leading to arbitrary arrests and deportations. Recent legislation has shifted refugee screening responsibilities from the UN to the government, raising concerns about access to rights and services. International backers, including the EU and IMF, have pledged substantial financial aid, though critics argue these deals may support authoritarian measures and human rights abuses.





ATLANTIC COUNCIL

Turkey’s Syria and Libya Strategies Add Up to a Mediterranean Power Play

Turkey is strategically expanding its influence in the Mediterranean by leveraging agreements and interventions in Syria and Libya. It aims to establish an Exclusive Economic Zone with Syria, similar to its 2019 maritime deal with Libya, enhancing its geopolitical presence. Turkey's actions in Libya have secured significant territorial claims and challenged the maritime boundaries asserted by Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel. Central to this strategy is Turkey's utilization of military support, political agreements, and economic tools to project power. In Libya, Turkish intervention via drones and mercenaries has counterbalanced Russian influence, while collaboration has enabled strategic advantages. In Syria, Turkey's approach intertwines security, economic, and geopolitical goals, risking heightened tensions with neighboring powers like Greece and Cyprus. Additionally, Israel views Turkey's growing presence in Syria as a threat, further complicating regional dynamics.

MIDDLE EAST COUNCIL ON GLOBAL AFFAIRS

Regional Economy Faces Plenty of Challenges—and Reasons for Hope—in 2025

The economic forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in 2025 suggests both optimism and persistent challenges. The World Bank projects a growth rebound to 3.8%, influenced by the Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) expected growth of 4.2% as oil production cuts are phased out. Developing oil exporters, including Iraq and Algeria, anticipate moderate growth, and even Egypt, despite its economic pressures, is predicted to improve with a GDP growth of 3.5%. However, structural issues like youth unemployment, projected to remain above 24%, pose significant risks. Inflation, expected to rise to 2.7%, will vary significantly across the region, severely impacting countries such as Iran, Yemen, and Egypt. Regional instability, like the Gaza conflict, continues to erode economic confidence and development prospects.

INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR DIALOGUE INITIATIVES

Algeria/Morocco: Rising Tensions and Risk of Accidental Escalation

Algeria and Morocco are embroiled in a persistent diplomatic crisis marked by mutual mistrust and a risk of accidental escalation. The tensions originate from Algeria's security concerns amplified by Morocco's assertive foreign policy and its normalization of relations with Israel, which Algeria views as a direct threat. The disagreement over Western Sahara further compounds these hostilities. Morocco, controlling most of the territory, supports an Autonomy Plan, while the Polisario Front and Algeria advocate for a referendum on self-determination. Although the crisis has not erupted into full conflict, incidents in the buffer zone, including military strikes and confrontations, fuel the risk of escalation. The Trump administration's stance on recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara and potential changes following his re-election could influence future developments, possibly increasing tensions.

#TRANSLATED#

CRISIS GROUP

Managing Tensions between Algeria and Morocco

The diplomatic crisis between Algeria and Morocco, exacerbated since 2021, centers on tensions in Western Sahara and Morocco's normalization of relations with Israel. Both nations have engaged in an arms race, online disinformation campaigns, and support for opposing factions in the region, notably the Polisario Front supported by Algeria. Despite mutual restraint and U.S. intervention, the threat of armed conflict persists. The Western Sahara dispute remains unresolved, with the Polisario Front abandoning a 30-year ceasefire in 2020, escalating conflicts with Morocco. External actors like the EU and individual European states have struggled to balance relations. Potential risks include heightened military exchanges and diplomatic friction undermining fragile peace efforts. Stable diplomatic relations could foster improved cooperation on security and economic fronts.

AFRICA CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

Africa’s 2024 Security Trends in 10 Graphics

In 2024, Africa's security landscape is marked by escalating militant Islamist violence, particularly in the Sahel, where fatalities have surged to 11,000, triple the number since 2020. This violence has spilled over into coastal West Africa, with a tenfold increase in extremist events near borders. The continent's forced displacement crisis has worsened, now exceeding 45 million people, with Africa hosting 48% of the world's internally displaced. Military juntas in countries like Burkina Faso and Mali have derailed promised elections, exacerbating repression and economic hardship. The Sudan conflict has led to significant regional instability, with over 11.5 million internally displaced. Despite ongoing challenges, some regions have exhibited resilience, with competitive elections in eight countries demonstrating potentials for democratic renewal.

PROJECTS, REPORTS & PUBLICATIONS

BROOKINGS AFRICA GROWTH INITIATIVE | REPORT



Foresight Africa 2025-2030

Explore "Foresight Africa 2025-2030," a special edition of the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings' annual report. As Africa approaches critical milestones—the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, the modernization of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, and the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area—this report provides essential insights. It addresses the continent's unique challenges amid climate crises, conflict, and global instability, and highlights opportunities for growth.

BOOK | ALYA EL MARAKABY & SAKER EL NOUR



People And Water In Egypt: A Political Ecology Perspective

People and Water in Egypt is an edited volume that takes an interdisciplinary approach to critically examine contemporary water issues in Egypt. The chapters offer a range of theoretical, empirical, and anthropological contributions covering water distribution within rural and urban areas, transboundary water politics, and issues around drinking water and irrigation.

RECRUITMENT & TENDERS

UNDP Tunisia | Partnerships and Outreach Analyst

The UNDP Tunisia is seeking a Partnerships and Outreach Analyst to develop and implement strategies for outreach and partnerships supporting the Sustainable Development Goals. The role involves coordinating with various stakeholders, managing relationships, and ensuring effective communication. Candidates should have relevant qualifications, experience, and proficiency in Arabic, French, and English.

APPLY BEFORE: JANUARY 20, 2025

World Bank | Economist

The World Bank Group is seeking an Education Specialist/Economist to contribute to the development and implementation of the Education GP’s work program in Egypt; provide project implementation support to the Egyptian Ministry of Education and Higher Education, and; support external communications related to education in Egypt.

APPLY BEFORE: JANUARY 21, 2025

#TENDER#

OECD | Egypt In-Country Experts (Non-Staff Consultants)

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is launching a Call for Tenders to source three individuals, non-staff consultants, based in Egypt to work and contribute to the project: “Promoting Citizen-centred Governance in Egypt”. This call for tenders is divided into 3 lots: Senior Justice Expert; Senior Regulatory Policy Expert, and; Youth Empowerment Expert. Interested candidates should register here in order to access the associated documents and further information.

APPLY BEFORE: FEBRUARY 19, 2025

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See the latest analyses and posts by FPI Senior Fellow & Executive Director of The North Africa Initiative (NAI)

Hafed Al-Ghwell

Also, catch Hafed's latest and other columns in Arab News.

You can contact the North Africa Initiative (NAI) by emailing:

Lana Bleik

Senior Research Program Coordinator 

Nourane Awadallah, SAIS MAIR Student & NAI Research Assistant, contributed to this newsletter.

The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of North Africa's challenges and opportunities.